{
"date": "2026-07-20",
"generated_utc": "2026-07-21 02:46",
"business_cycle": {
"available": true,
"asof": "2026-07-31",
"tiers": {
"leading": {
"asof": "2026-07-31",
"index": 94.77062974337625,
"mom6": 0.32995512822759565,
"trend": 0.5860168382332509,
"diffusion": 75.0,
"n_legs": 4,
"direction": "rising",
"spark_mom6": [
-1.76,
-0.89,
-0.34,
0.36,
0.23,
-0.16,
-1.11,
-0.27,
0.3,
0.68,
0.9,
0.94,
1.86,
0.8,
0.37,
0.38,
0.2,
0.6,
0.71,
1.15,
0.9,
1.24,
1.08,
1.03,
0.99,
0.69,
1.11,
-0.03,
0.0,
-0.49,
-0.28,
0.29,
-0.16,
-0.06,
-0.26,
0.21,
-0.59,
-1.58,
-1.22,
-0.61,
-0.2,
0.08,
0.48,
1.23,
1.11,
0.86,
1.02,
0.59,
0.57,
-0.03,
-0.27,
-0.07,
-0.06,
0.07,
-0.23,
-0.57,
-0.45,
-0.6,
-1.54,
-1.69,
-2.05,
-1.65,
-1.97,
-2.75,
-2.67,
-2.98,
-2.14,
-2.86,
-2.26,
-1.06,
-0.58,
-0.68,
-1.03,
-1.02,
-2.05,
-1.68,
-0.74,
0.07,
-0.05,
1.45,
2.04,
1.45,
0.39,
-0.96,
-1.21,
-2.39,
-2.21,
-1.83,
-1.64,
-0.04,
-0.38,
0.04,
0.5,
0.34,
0.93,
0.78,
1.91,
2.34,
2.5,
2.61,
2.38,
2.13,
1.95,
1.3,
1.62,
0.89,
0.54,
-0.01,
-0.06,
-0.02,
-0.67,
-0.27,
-0.18,
0.01,
0.49,
0.44,
-0.55,
-0.91,
-1.27,
-0.39,
-0.77,
-1.31,
-0.72,
-0.17,
0.37,
-0.19,
0.13,
0.67,
1.33,
0.44,
-0.38,
-0.75,
-1.25,
-1.27,
-1.42,
-0.85,
-0.4,
0.24,
0.33,
0.17,
0.48,
0.58,
0.61,
-0.51,
-0.95,
-0.51,
-1.21,
-2.1,
-2.12,
-2.18,
-1.66,
-2.29,
-1.83,
-1.0,
-1.55,
-0.95,
-1.8,
-1.73,
-3.46,
-5.04,
-5.92,
-6.23,
-6.26,
-6.05,
-4.28,
-1.71,
0.65,
1.87,
3.24,
3.93,
4.42,
3.53,
3.28,
3.26,
2.5,
2.46,
2.56,
1.56,
0.95,
0.14,
-0.22,
0.02,
-0.55,
0.41,
1.13,
1.78,
2.34,
1.79,
1.53,
1.29,
0.68,
0.09,
-1.03,
-1.49,
-1.32,
-0.61,
-0.56,
0.05,
1.77,
2.69,
2.26,
1.28,
1.1,
0.39,
0.03,
-0.45,
0.15,
0.26,
0.81,
1.14,
1.11,
1.49,
0.92,
1.67,
1.27,
1.17,
1.08,
1.01,
0.65,
0.6,
0.75,
0.78,
0.25,
0.36,
1.2,
0.78,
0.59,
0.59,
0.77,
0.56,
0.14,
0.19,
-0.16,
-0.5,
-0.17,
-0.16,
-0.32,
0.13,
0.34,
0.6,
-0.24,
-0.51,
-0.42,
-0.69,
-0.88,
-1.71,
-1.01,
-0.53,
-0.42,
-0.67,
-0.21,
0.53,
0.76,
0.55,
0.78,
0.94,
1.06,
1.3,
1.58,
1.15,
0.9,
0.77,
0.05,
-0.07,
-0.76,
-0.45,
0.1,
0.22,
0.62,
0.5,
0.9,
1.11,
0.6,
0.63,
0.3,
0.44,
0.34,
-0.07,
-0.41,
-1.23,
-1.97,
-2.09,
-2.2,
-2.04,
-1.38,
-1.35,
-0.56,
-0.29,
-0.88,
-0.61,
-0.93,
-0.14,
0.11,
-0.05,
0.23,
-2.59,
-3.74,
-5.82,
-4.34,
-3.64,
-2.18,
0.57,
2.46,
4.84,
3.51,
3.24,
2.73,
2.53,
2.63,
2.41,
1.93,
1.36,
0.61,
0.5,
-0.23,
-0.2,
0.01,
0.25,
0.06,
-0.05,
0.04,
-0.81,
-1.74,
-3.26,
-2.7,
-2.65,
-3.16,
-2.61,
-2.26,
-1.24,
-0.91,
-1.0,
-1.22,
-1.11,
-0.16,
0.33,
0.25,
0.68,
0.99,
0.91,
0.48,
0.49,
0.64,
0.75,
1.04,
1.03,
0.73,
0.63,
-0.38,
-0.21,
0.3,
0.61,
1.49,
1.52,
1.78,
0.65,
-0.62,
-0.81,
-1.0,
-0.7,
-0.45,
0.23,
1.05,
0.89,
0.95,
0.74,
0.46,
0.72,
0.69,
1.04,
0.55,
0.33
],
"spark_trend": [
-2.0,
-1.68,
-1.3,
-0.82,
-0.52,
-0.42,
-0.62,
-0.52,
-0.28,
-0.01,
0.25,
0.45,
0.85,
0.84,
0.7,
0.61,
0.49,
0.52,
0.58,
0.74,
0.79,
0.92,
0.96,
0.98,
0.99,
0.9,
0.96,
0.68,
0.48,
0.21,
0.07,
0.13,
0.05,
0.02,
-0.06,
0.02,
-0.16,
-0.56,
-0.75,
-0.71,
-0.56,
-0.38,
-0.13,
0.25,
0.5,
0.6,
0.72,
0.68,
0.65,
0.46,
0.25,
0.16,
0.09,
0.09,
-0.0,
-0.16,
-0.25,
-0.35,
-0.69,
-0.98,
-1.28,
-1.39,
-1.55,
-1.9,
-2.12,
-2.36,
-2.3,
-2.46,
-2.4,
-2.02,
-1.61,
-1.34,
-1.25,
-1.18,
-1.43,
-1.5,
-1.28,
-0.9,
-0.65,
-0.05,
0.55,
0.81,
0.69,
0.22,
-0.19,
-0.82,
-1.22,
-1.39,
-1.46,
-1.06,
-0.86,
-0.6,
-0.29,
-0.11,
0.19,
0.36,
0.8,
1.24,
1.6,
1.89,
2.03,
2.06,
2.03,
1.82,
1.76,
1.51,
1.24,
0.88,
0.61,
0.43,
0.12,
0.01,
-0.05,
-0.03,
0.12,
0.21,
-0.0,
-0.26,
-0.55,
-0.51,
-0.58,
-0.79,
-0.77,
-0.6,
-0.32,
-0.29,
-0.17,
0.07,
0.43,
0.43,
0.2,
-0.07,
-0.41,
-0.65,
-0.87,
-0.87,
-0.73,
-0.45,
-0.23,
-0.12,
0.06,
0.21,
0.32,
0.08,
-0.21,
-0.3,
-0.56,
-1.0,
-1.32,
-1.56,
-1.59,
-1.79,
-1.8,
-1.57,
-1.57,
-1.39,
-1.51,
-1.57,
-2.11,
-2.95,
-3.8,
-4.49,
-5.0,
-5.3,
-5.01,
-4.06,
-2.72,
-1.4,
-0.08,
1.07,
2.02,
2.46,
2.69,
2.85,
2.75,
2.67,
2.64,
2.33,
1.93,
1.42,
0.95,
0.69,
0.33,
0.35,
0.58,
0.92,
1.33,
1.46,
1.48,
1.42,
1.21,
0.89,
0.34,
-0.18,
-0.51,
-0.54,
-0.54,
-0.37,
0.24,
0.94,
1.31,
1.31,
1.25,
1.0,
0.73,
0.39,
0.32,
0.3,
0.45,
0.65,
0.78,
0.98,
0.97,
1.17,
1.2,
1.19,
1.16,
1.11,
0.98,
0.87,
0.84,
0.82,
0.66,
0.57,
0.75,
0.76,
0.71,
0.68,
0.7,
0.66,
0.51,
0.42,
0.26,
0.04,
-0.02,
-0.06,
-0.13,
-0.06,
0.05,
0.21,
0.08,
-0.09,
-0.18,
-0.33,
-0.49,
-0.84,
-0.89,
-0.78,
-0.68,
-0.68,
-0.55,
-0.24,
0.05,
0.19,
0.36,
0.52,
0.68,
0.85,
1.06,
1.09,
1.03,
0.96,
0.7,
0.48,
0.13,
-0.04,
0.0,
0.06,
0.22,
0.3,
0.47,
0.65,
0.64,
0.64,
0.54,
0.51,
0.46,
0.31,
0.1,
-0.28,
-0.76,
-1.14,
-1.44,
-1.61,
-1.55,
-1.49,
-1.22,
-0.96,
-0.93,
-0.84,
-0.87,
-0.66,
-0.44,
-0.33,
-0.17,
-0.86,
-1.68,
-2.86,
-3.29,
-3.39,
-3.04,
-2.01,
-0.73,
0.86,
1.62,
2.08,
2.27,
2.34,
2.43,
2.42,
2.28,
2.02,
1.61,
1.3,
0.86,
0.56,
0.4,
0.36,
0.27,
0.18,
0.14,
-0.13,
-0.59,
-1.35,
-1.74,
-2.0,
-2.33,
-2.41,
-2.37,
-2.04,
-1.72,
-1.52,
-1.43,
-1.34,
-1.0,
-0.62,
-0.37,
-0.07,
0.23,
0.43,
0.44,
0.45,
0.51,
0.58,
0.71,
0.8,
0.78,
0.74,
0.42,
0.24,
0.26,
0.36,
0.68,
0.92,
1.17,
1.02,
0.55,
0.16,
-0.17,
-0.32,
-0.36,
-0.19,
0.16,
0.37,
0.54,
0.59,
0.55,
0.6,
0.63,
0.75,
0.69,
0.59
],
"spark_index": [
96.33,
96.55,
96.41,
96.18,
96.3,
96.06,
95.22,
96.27,
96.71,
96.86,
97.2,
97.0,
97.08,
97.07,
97.07,
97.25,
97.39,
97.6,
97.8,
98.22,
97.97,
98.49,
98.48,
98.62,
98.79,
98.91,
99.08,
98.46,
98.48,
98.13,
98.51,
99.2,
98.92,
98.4,
98.21,
98.35,
97.92,
97.62,
97.7,
97.79,
98.02,
98.42,
98.4,
98.85,
98.81,
98.65,
99.03,
99.01,
98.97,
98.81,
98.53,
98.58,
98.97,
99.09,
98.75,
98.25,
98.08,
97.97,
97.43,
97.4,
96.7,
96.6,
96.11,
95.22,
94.75,
94.42,
94.56,
93.74,
93.85,
94.16,
94.18,
93.74,
93.53,
92.72,
91.8,
92.48,
93.44,
93.81,
93.48,
94.18,
93.84,
93.93,
93.83,
92.86,
92.27,
91.78,
91.63,
92.1,
92.19,
92.82,
91.9,
91.83,
92.13,
92.44,
93.11,
93.6,
93.81,
94.17,
94.63,
95.05,
95.49,
95.73,
95.75,
95.47,
96.26,
95.94,
96.03,
95.72,
95.69,
95.46,
95.58,
95.67,
95.85,
95.73,
96.19,
95.9,
95.04,
94.76,
94.58,
95.34,
95.41,
94.59,
94.31,
94.59,
94.95,
95.15,
95.55,
95.26,
95.64,
95.04,
94.56,
94.41,
94.3,
93.98,
94.22,
94.18,
94.17,
94.65,
94.63,
94.15,
94.7,
94.77,
94.77,
94.14,
93.68,
93.64,
93.49,
92.67,
92.66,
91.96,
92.03,
91.36,
91.66,
91.68,
91.1,
91.01,
90.23,
89.62,
88.2,
86.63,
85.18,
84.79,
83.97,
83.57,
83.92,
84.93,
85.83,
86.66,
87.21,
87.5,
88.34,
88.46,
89.11,
89.91,
89.7,
89.96,
90.9,
90.02,
90.06,
90.05,
89.48,
89.98,
90.35,
90.43,
91.19,
91.84,
91.82,
91.76,
91.87,
91.72,
91.87,
91.93,
90.79,
90.27,
90.56,
91.11,
91.31,
91.98,
92.56,
92.96,
92.81,
92.39,
92.42,
92.38,
92.59,
92.51,
92.96,
92.65,
93.23,
93.52,
93.7,
93.99,
93.88,
94.33,
94.5,
94.69,
94.77,
95.0,
94.53,
94.93,
95.25,
95.47,
95.02,
95.37,
95.73,
95.72,
95.84,
96.07,
95.79,
95.93,
95.87,
95.91,
95.68,
95.56,
95.62,
95.77,
95.55,
96.03,
96.02,
96.16,
95.39,
95.26,
95.13,
95.34,
95.14,
94.45,
94.37,
94.73,
94.71,
94.67,
94.93,
94.98,
95.13,
95.28,
95.48,
95.61,
95.98,
96.29,
96.71,
96.43,
96.38,
96.37,
96.03,
96.22,
95.96,
95.98,
96.48,
96.6,
96.65,
96.72,
96.86,
97.09,
97.08,
97.22,
96.95,
97.16,
97.2,
97.02,
96.67,
96.0,
94.99,
95.07,
95.0,
94.98,
95.29,
94.64,
94.43,
94.78,
94.12,
94.37,
94.37,
94.5,
94.54,
94.73,
94.35,
91.78,
90.63,
88.68,
90.2,
91.09,
92.17,
92.36,
93.09,
93.52,
93.71,
94.33,
94.9,
94.88,
95.73,
95.93,
95.64,
95.69,
95.51,
95.38,
95.5,
95.73,
95.65,
95.93,
95.58,
95.34,
95.55,
94.92,
93.91,
92.68,
92.88,
92.68,
92.38,
92.31,
91.66,
91.44,
91.97,
91.68,
91.16,
91.2,
91.5,
91.76,
92.22,
92.36,
92.15,
92.11,
91.98,
92.25,
92.87,
93.11,
93.19,
93.14,
92.71,
92.89,
92.49,
92.9,
93.49,
93.75,
94.2,
94.4,
94.27,
93.55,
92.88,
92.95,
93.2,
93.71,
93.82,
93.78,
93.92,
93.84,
94.14,
94.44,
94.28,
94.5,
94.61,
94.88,
94.69,
94.77
]
},
"coincident": {
"asof": "2026-06-30",
"index": 35.54997927837485,
"mom6": -0.19521292979656835,
"trend": -0.3761025914334855,
"diffusion": 100.0,
"n_legs": 2,
"direction": "falling",
"spark_mom6": [
-1.0,
-0.58,
0.26,
0.28,
0.74,
0.52,
0.11,
0.67,
0.11,
0.69,
1.44,
1.98,
2.31,
1.76,
1.93,
1.62,
1.53,
1.25,
1.36,
2.05,
2.73,
2.76,
2.5,
2.27,
3.32,
2.72,
2.37,
3.2,
3.25,
3.72,
3.14,
2.87,
2.54,
2.02,
2.13,
1.28,
0.42,
1.15,
0.98,
1.07,
0.72,
1.32,
2.02,
1.6,
1.65,
1.2,
1.05,
0.98,
1.15,
0.7,
0.24,
1.02,
1.52,
1.87,
1.67,
1.76,
1.84,
1.7,
1.22,
-0.1,
-0.29,
-1.14,
-1.17,
-2.15,
-2.81,
-3.0,
-3.49,
-3.85,
-4.3,
-5.84,
-6.71,
-6.81,
-7.9,
-7.67,
-8.1,
-8.25,
-7.37,
-7.44,
-6.17,
-6.08,
-5.13,
-3.71,
-3.11,
-2.07,
-2.44,
-2.38,
-2.57,
-2.64,
-3.06,
-3.77,
-3.44,
-3.4,
-4.29,
-4.03,
-3.95,
-3.39,
-2.96,
-2.67,
-1.46,
-0.86,
-0.35,
-0.61,
-1.29,
-1.27,
-1.1,
-0.34,
-0.28,
-0.6,
0.29,
0.46,
0.38,
-0.06,
-0.92,
1.95,
0.56,
1.06,
0.79,
0.37,
1.38,
-0.67,
0.75,
0.36,
-0.78,
-0.44,
-0.08,
0.35,
0.63,
1.13,
2.79,
2.39,
0.8,
0.31,
-0.61,
-1.26,
-1.47,
-1.66,
-0.8,
-0.37,
0.13,
0.47,
0.71,
1.05,
0.76,
0.13,
-0.52,
-1.23,
-1.31,
-1.93,
-1.55,
-1.59,
-1.75,
-1.6,
-2.75,
-3.91,
-4.83,
-5.76,
-6.04,
-7.36,
-9.23,
-8.51,
-9.4,
-11.52,
-13.23,
-13.78,
-12.5,
-13.16,
-12.47,
-10.16,
-7.71,
-4.95,
-3.42,
-1.92,
-0.58,
0.5,
1.07,
0.56,
1.27,
2.5,
3.69,
3.4,
3.44,
3.93,
3.27,
2.38,
1.18,
2.04,
2.25,
2.43,
2.4,
2.59,
2.21,
1.77,
1.85,
1.66,
1.9,
1.63,
2.02,
2.28,
2.58,
2.85,
2.75,
2.9,
2.66,
2.13,
0.92,
0.18,
0.33,
0.54,
1.0,
2.68,
1.46,
1.88,
1.9,
1.41,
1.01,
-0.25,
0.97,
0.97,
1.08,
1.12,
1.39,
1.36,
1.61,
1.37,
1.73,
2.18,
1.99,
2.05,
2.28,
2.48,
2.05,
1.77,
2.03,
1.94,
1.96,
1.73,
0.97,
0.94,
0.76,
0.0,
0.21,
0.23,
0.64,
0.81,
0.22,
0.62,
0.35,
0.17,
0.26,
0.02,
0.07,
0.19,
0.62,
0.68,
1.01,
0.94,
1.15,
1.45,
1.34,
1.53,
1.36,
1.72,
1.93,
1.77,
1.48,
1.38,
1.37,
1.62,
1.88,
1.98,
1.94,
1.81,
1.98,
1.59,
1.04,
1.31,
1.09,
1.61,
1.2,
0.82,
0.73,
0.53,
0.11,
-0.8,
-0.97,
-1.34,
-1.93,
-2.21,
-2.35,
-1.47,
-1.56,
-2.04,
-1.56,
-2.13,
-1.84,
-2.1,
-6.49,
-14.03,
-14.84,
-10.95,
-8.62,
-7.79,
-2.83,
6.21,
7.39,
3.98,
2.1,
0.92,
0.8,
0.99,
1.13,
0.93,
1.02,
1.22,
0.7,
0.3,
0.23,
0.27,
-0.29,
-0.02,
0.1,
-0.31,
-0.57,
-0.84,
-0.24,
-0.39,
-0.03,
-0.08,
-0.05,
-0.0,
0.12,
0.24,
0.04,
0.08,
0.1,
0.43,
0.21,
0.07,
0.04,
0.16,
0.35,
0.37,
0.01,
-0.11,
-0.09,
-0.25,
-0.24,
-0.22,
-0.19,
-0.0,
-0.16,
-0.01,
-0.19,
-0.04,
0.16,
-0.12,
0.24,
0.34,
0.06,
-0.32,
-0.13,
-0.01,
-0.26,
-0.75,
-0.51,
-0.43,
-0.62,
-0.6,
-0.55,
-0.3,
-0.2,
null
],
"spark_trend": [
0.46,
0.16,
0.19,
0.22,
0.37,
0.41,
0.32,
0.42,
0.33,
0.44,
0.72,
1.08,
1.43,
1.53,
1.64,
1.64,
1.61,
1.5,
1.46,
1.63,
1.95,
2.18,
2.27,
2.27,
2.57,
2.61,
2.54,
2.73,
2.88,
3.12,
3.13,
3.05,
2.9,
2.65,
2.5,
2.15,
1.66,
1.51,
1.36,
1.28,
1.12,
1.18,
1.42,
1.47,
1.52,
1.43,
1.32,
1.22,
1.2,
1.06,
0.83,
0.88,
1.06,
1.29,
1.4,
1.5,
1.6,
1.63,
1.51,
1.05,
0.67,
0.15,
-0.23,
-0.78,
-1.36,
-1.83,
-2.3,
-2.74,
-3.19,
-3.95,
-4.74,
-5.33,
-6.06,
-6.52,
-6.97,
-7.34,
-7.35,
-7.37,
-7.03,
-6.76,
-6.29,
-5.56,
-4.86,
-4.06,
-3.6,
-3.25,
-3.05,
-2.94,
-2.97,
-3.2,
-3.27,
-3.3,
-3.59,
-3.71,
-3.78,
-3.67,
-3.47,
-3.24,
-2.73,
-2.2,
-1.67,
-1.37,
-1.35,
-1.32,
-1.26,
-1.0,
-0.79,
-0.74,
-0.45,
-0.19,
-0.02,
-0.03,
-0.29,
0.35,
0.41,
0.6,
0.65,
0.57,
0.8,
0.38,
0.49,
0.45,
0.1,
-0.05,
-0.06,
0.05,
0.22,
0.48,
1.14,
1.5,
1.3,
1.02,
0.55,
0.03,
-0.4,
-0.76,
-0.77,
-0.66,
-0.43,
-0.17,
0.08,
0.36,
0.47,
0.38,
0.12,
-0.27,
-0.57,
-0.95,
-1.12,
-1.26,
-1.4,
-1.45,
-1.82,
-2.42,
-3.11,
-3.87,
-4.49,
-5.31,
-6.43,
-7.02,
-7.7,
-8.79,
-10.06,
-11.12,
-11.51,
-11.98,
-12.12,
-11.56,
-10.46,
-8.89,
-7.33,
-5.78,
-4.29,
-2.93,
-1.78,
-1.11,
-0.43,
0.41,
1.34,
1.93,
2.36,
2.81,
2.94,
2.78,
2.32,
2.24,
2.24,
2.3,
2.33,
2.4,
2.35,
2.18,
2.09,
1.96,
1.95,
1.86,
1.9,
2.01,
2.17,
2.37,
2.48,
2.6,
2.62,
2.48,
2.03,
1.5,
1.17,
0.99,
0.99,
1.47,
1.47,
1.59,
1.68,
1.6,
1.43,
0.95,
0.96,
0.96,
0.99,
1.03,
1.13,
1.2,
1.32,
1.33,
1.44,
1.65,
1.75,
1.84,
1.96,
2.11,
2.09,
2.0,
2.01,
1.99,
1.98,
1.91,
1.64,
1.44,
1.25,
0.89,
0.7,
0.56,
0.59,
0.65,
0.53,
0.55,
0.5,
0.4,
0.36,
0.26,
0.21,
0.2,
0.32,
0.42,
0.59,
0.69,
0.82,
1.0,
1.1,
1.22,
1.26,
1.39,
1.54,
1.61,
1.57,
1.52,
1.47,
1.52,
1.62,
1.72,
1.78,
1.79,
1.85,
1.77,
1.56,
1.49,
1.38,
1.44,
1.37,
1.22,
1.08,
0.92,
0.69,
0.26,
-0.09,
-0.45,
-0.87,
-1.25,
-1.57,
-1.54,
-1.55,
-1.69,
-1.65,
-1.79,
-1.8,
-1.89,
-3.2,
-6.3,
-8.74,
-9.37,
-9.15,
-8.77,
-7.07,
-3.28,
-0.23,
0.97,
1.29,
1.19,
1.08,
1.05,
1.07,
1.03,
1.03,
1.08,
0.97,
0.78,
0.62,
0.52,
0.29,
0.2,
0.17,
0.03,
-0.14,
-0.34,
-0.31,
-0.33,
-0.25,
-0.2,
-0.16,
-0.11,
-0.05,
0.04,
0.04,
0.05,
0.06,
0.17,
0.18,
0.15,
0.12,
0.13,
0.19,
0.24,
0.18,
0.09,
0.04,
-0.04,
-0.1,
-0.13,
-0.15,
-0.11,
-0.12,
-0.09,
-0.12,
-0.1,
-0.02,
-0.05,
0.03,
0.12,
0.1,
-0.02,
-0.05,
-0.04,
-0.1,
-0.29,
-0.35,
-0.37,
-0.44,
-0.49,
-0.51,
-0.45,
-0.38,
null
],
"spark_index": [
58.75,
59.04,
59.71,
59.41,
59.38,
59.51,
58.86,
59.71,
59.82,
60.1,
60.83,
61.5,
61.17,
61.48,
61.75,
61.72,
62.35,
62.74,
62.53,
63.53,
64.48,
64.47,
64.86,
65.01,
65.85,
66.25,
66.86,
67.67,
68.11,
68.73,
69.0,
69.12,
69.39,
69.69,
70.24,
70.01,
69.42,
70.26,
70.38,
70.76,
70.96,
71.33,
71.44,
71.87,
72.03,
71.96,
72.01,
72.31,
72.59,
72.57,
72.27,
72.98,
73.53,
74.18,
74.26,
74.33,
74.11,
74.68,
74.76,
74.08,
73.97,
73.19,
72.94,
72.53,
71.94,
71.08,
70.49,
69.34,
68.64,
66.68,
65.23,
64.27,
62.59,
61.67,
60.54,
58.43,
57.87,
56.84,
56.42,
55.59,
55.41,
54.72,
54.75,
54.77,
53.98,
53.22,
52.84,
52.08,
51.69,
51.0,
50.55,
49.82,
48.54,
48.05,
47.74,
47.61,
47.59,
47.15,
47.08,
47.18,
47.39,
47.0,
46.29,
45.88,
45.98,
46.84,
47.11,
46.4,
46.58,
46.34,
46.37,
46.79,
46.19,
48.35,
47.14,
47.4,
47.15,
47.15,
47.57,
47.68,
47.89,
47.77,
46.37,
46.71,
47.49,
48.03,
48.52,
48.9,
49.16,
49.1,
48.29,
48.34,
47.91,
47.64,
47.69,
47.45,
47.49,
47.97,
48.05,
48.11,
48.4,
48.5,
48.25,
48.1,
47.53,
46.88,
47.09,
46.57,
46.7,
46.51,
45.78,
45.28,
44.34,
42.66,
41.87,
40.75,
39.73,
37.93,
35.11,
34.15,
32.47,
29.23,
26.51,
24.15,
22.62,
20.99,
20.0,
19.07,
18.8,
19.2,
19.19,
19.08,
19.42,
19.57,
19.88,
19.76,
20.46,
21.58,
23.11,
22.96,
23.32,
23.69,
23.73,
23.96,
24.29,
25.0,
25.56,
26.12,
26.13,
26.54,
26.51,
26.77,
27.41,
27.78,
28.04,
28.18,
28.53,
29.06,
29.99,
30.63,
30.79,
31.08,
31.19,
31.19,
30.91,
30.82,
31.12,
31.61,
32.19,
33.87,
32.36,
32.69,
33.02,
33.02,
33.19,
33.62,
33.33,
33.67,
34.1,
34.15,
34.59,
34.98,
34.94,
35.03,
35.83,
36.32,
36.58,
37.03,
37.22,
37.52,
37.88,
38.09,
38.61,
38.97,
39.19,
39.24,
38.85,
39.03,
39.37,
38.98,
39.4,
39.47,
39.49,
39.85,
39.59,
39.59,
39.75,
39.64,
39.75,
39.87,
39.66,
39.78,
40.36,
40.31,
40.76,
40.81,
40.81,
41.23,
41.7,
41.84,
42.12,
42.53,
42.74,
43.01,
43.18,
43.22,
43.48,
44.15,
44.61,
44.98,
45.12,
45.03,
45.46,
45.74,
45.65,
46.29,
46.21,
46.64,
46.67,
46.56,
46.38,
46.82,
46.33,
45.84,
45.7,
45.21,
44.45,
44.6,
43.98,
44.37,
44.14,
43.18,
42.89,
42.47,
42.14,
42.27,
37.64,
29.15,
28.05,
31.51,
33.52,
34.48,
34.82,
35.36,
35.44,
35.49,
35.62,
35.4,
35.62,
36.35,
36.57,
36.42,
36.64,
36.62,
36.32,
36.65,
36.8,
36.69,
36.35,
36.59,
36.42,
36.34,
36.23,
35.85,
36.11,
36.2,
36.39,
36.26,
36.18,
35.85,
36.23,
36.44,
36.42,
36.34,
36.28,
36.28,
36.44,
36.5,
36.47,
36.5,
36.63,
36.65,
36.45,
36.39,
36.37,
36.24,
36.39,
36.43,
36.26,
36.39,
36.21,
36.24,
36.2,
36.4,
36.42,
36.27,
36.45,
36.57,
36.25,
36.08,
36.29,
36.26,
36.19,
35.82,
35.75,
35.65,
35.67,
35.66,
35.64,
35.52,
35.55,
null
]
},
"lagging": {
"asof": "2026-06-30",
"index": 93.08884123167157,
"mom6": 0.6897574539808886,
"trend": 0.014909098943988272,
"diffusion": 50.0,
"n_legs": 4,
"direction": "rising",
"spark_mom6": [
-0.02,
-0.39,
-0.28,
0.29,
-0.69,
-1.02,
-0.38,
-1.17,
-1.71,
-1.54,
-0.57,
-0.47,
-0.48,
-0.02,
0.94,
0.94,
0.8,
1.22,
0.52,
1.01,
1.14,
0.94,
0.48,
0.02,
-0.32,
-0.25,
-0.68,
-0.95,
-0.53,
-0.56,
-0.0,
-0.37,
-0.01,
-0.4,
-0.4,
0.35,
-0.02,
0.26,
-0.74,
0.08,
-0.08,
-0.71,
-0.45,
-1.04,
-0.02,
-0.51,
-1.14,
-0.98,
-0.31,
0.86,
0.57,
0.63,
2.29,
1.95,
1.6,
1.8,
1.57,
2.41,
1.65,
2.48,
1.89,
1.21,
1.37,
0.99,
0.3,
-0.69,
0.39,
-0.2,
-1.05,
-2.5,
-2.54,
-2.57,
-4.31,
-4.66,
-5.1,
-5.7,
-5.52,
-5.74,
-5.13,
-4.28,
-3.39,
-2.47,
-2.5,
-2.34,
-2.27,
-2.23,
-2.57,
-3.0,
-2.83,
-2.57,
-2.79,
-2.92,
-2.34,
-1.99,
-2.2,
-3.15,
-2.03,
-2.18,
-2.45,
-1.76,
-2.14,
-1.0,
-1.81,
-1.9,
-1.46,
-1.05,
-0.7,
-0.02,
1.01,
1.45,
1.35,
1.4,
2.59,
2.32,
2.16,
2.48,
3.28,
3.46,
3.23,
3.11,
3.58,
3.21,
3.09,
4.14,
4.34,
4.23,
4.09,
3.71,
3.55,
2.4,
1.72,
2.35,
1.37,
1.71,
1.31,
0.59,
0.5,
0.25,
0.88,
0.69,
0.4,
1.31,
1.63,
1.75,
0.74,
0.83,
1.78,
1.13,
0.99,
0.85,
-0.13,
-0.05,
-0.86,
-1.02,
-0.54,
-0.8,
1.23,
0.6,
-1.03,
-1.93,
-4.12,
-6.7,
-8.05,
-8.14,
-7.04,
-7.05,
-6.24,
-4.73,
-4.63,
-4.2,
-4.08,
-3.47,
-3.51,
-3.13,
-3.45,
-3.36,
-3.72,
-3.38,
-2.9,
-2.79,
-2.0,
-1.94,
-1.32,
-1.51,
-1.12,
-0.83,
-1.13,
-0.68,
-0.89,
-0.14,
-0.37,
-0.48,
0.06,
0.29,
0.69,
0.66,
0.58,
1.01,
1.1,
0.8,
0.88,
0.78,
0.74,
0.58,
0.39,
0.18,
0.27,
0.23,
0.63,
1.22,
1.58,
1.49,
1.42,
0.95,
0.56,
0.33,
-0.18,
-0.18,
-0.21,
0.3,
0.32,
0.22,
0.71,
0.73,
1.27,
1.18,
1.74,
1.56,
1.47,
1.73,
0.96,
0.69,
0.28,
0.1,
0.02,
-0.37,
-0.04,
0.3,
0.43,
1.25,
1.27,
1.42,
1.72,
1.34,
1.59,
1.08,
0.58,
0.8,
0.87,
1.44,
1.73,
1.47,
2.22,
2.17,
1.93,
1.76,
1.75,
1.85,
2.14,
2.38,
1.75,
1.83,
1.4,
1.52,
0.75,
0.79,
0.78,
0.94,
1.18,
1.84,
2.2,
2.23,
2.74,
3.09,
3.56,
3.35,
2.41,
2.24,
2.05,
1.62,
1.45,
1.75,
2.28,
1.42,
1.27,
0.85,
-0.61,
-0.97,
-1.25,
-1.4,
-1.87,
-2.71,
-1.69,
-2.56,
-2.34,
-3.28,
-1.87,
0.23,
-2.73,
-2.35,
-1.31,
0.03,
-1.44,
-3.32,
-0.94,
-1.52,
-3.12,
-2.5,
-2.1,
-0.55,
-0.02,
0.28,
1.35,
0.68,
0.87,
0.57,
0.62,
1.18,
1.33,
2.34,
3.48,
4.47,
5.78,
6.91,
7.43,
7.3,
7.46,
6.53,
5.27,
4.31,
3.59,
3.53,
2.2,
1.31,
0.92,
0.41,
0.29,
-0.09,
0.21,
0.59,
0.87,
0.57,
0.77,
0.75,
0.68,
0.59,
0.14,
0.22,
-0.27,
-0.47,
-0.9,
-0.98,
-1.03,
-1.11,
-1.12,
-1.05,
-1.0,
-1.04,
-0.77,
-0.72,
-0.7,
-0.73,
-0.68,
-0.97,
-1.1,
-1.0,
-0.65,
-0.58,
-0.19,
0.62,
0.69,
null
],
"spark_trend": [
1.57,
1.01,
0.64,
0.54,
0.19,
-0.16,
-0.22,
-0.49,
-0.84,
-1.04,
-0.9,
-0.78,
-0.69,
-0.5,
-0.09,
0.21,
0.38,
0.62,
0.59,
0.71,
0.83,
0.86,
0.75,
0.54,
0.3,
0.14,
-0.09,
-0.34,
-0.39,
-0.44,
-0.32,
-0.33,
-0.24,
-0.29,
-0.32,
-0.13,
-0.1,
0.01,
-0.21,
-0.13,
-0.11,
-0.28,
-0.33,
-0.53,
-0.39,
-0.42,
-0.63,
-0.73,
-0.61,
-0.19,
0.03,
0.2,
0.8,
1.13,
1.26,
1.41,
1.46,
1.73,
1.71,
1.93,
1.92,
1.71,
1.62,
1.44,
1.11,
0.6,
0.54,
0.33,
-0.07,
-0.76,
-1.27,
-1.64,
-2.4,
-3.05,
-3.64,
-4.22,
-4.59,
-4.92,
-4.98,
-4.78,
-4.38,
-3.83,
-3.45,
-3.14,
-2.89,
-2.7,
-2.66,
-2.76,
-2.78,
-2.72,
-2.74,
-2.79,
-2.66,
-2.47,
-2.39,
-2.61,
-2.45,
-2.37,
-2.39,
-2.21,
-2.19,
-1.85,
-1.84,
-1.86,
-1.75,
-1.55,
-1.31,
-0.94,
-0.38,
0.14,
0.49,
0.75,
1.27,
1.57,
1.74,
1.95,
2.33,
2.65,
2.82,
2.9,
3.1,
3.13,
3.12,
3.41,
3.68,
3.83,
3.91,
3.85,
3.76,
3.37,
2.9,
2.75,
2.35,
2.17,
1.92,
1.54,
1.25,
0.96,
0.94,
0.86,
0.73,
0.9,
1.11,
1.29,
1.13,
1.05,
1.26,
1.22,
1.15,
1.07,
0.73,
0.5,
0.11,
-0.21,
-0.3,
-0.45,
0.03,
0.2,
-0.16,
-0.66,
-1.65,
-3.09,
-4.51,
-5.55,
-5.97,
-6.28,
-6.27,
-5.83,
-5.49,
-5.12,
-4.82,
-4.43,
-4.17,
-3.87,
-3.75,
-3.64,
-3.66,
-3.58,
-3.39,
-3.22,
-2.87,
-2.6,
-2.24,
-2.03,
-1.77,
-1.5,
-1.4,
-1.19,
-1.11,
-0.83,
-0.7,
-0.63,
-0.44,
-0.23,
0.03,
0.21,
0.32,
0.51,
0.68,
0.72,
0.76,
0.77,
0.76,
0.71,
0.62,
0.49,
0.43,
0.37,
0.45,
0.67,
0.93,
1.09,
1.18,
1.12,
0.96,
0.78,
0.5,
0.31,
0.16,
0.2,
0.23,
0.23,
0.37,
0.47,
0.7,
0.84,
1.09,
1.23,
1.3,
1.42,
1.29,
1.12,
0.88,
0.66,
0.47,
0.23,
0.15,
0.2,
0.26,
0.55,
0.75,
0.94,
1.17,
1.22,
1.32,
1.25,
1.06,
0.99,
0.95,
1.09,
1.28,
1.33,
1.59,
1.75,
1.8,
1.79,
1.78,
1.8,
1.9,
2.03,
1.95,
1.92,
1.77,
1.7,
1.43,
1.24,
1.11,
1.06,
1.1,
1.31,
1.56,
1.75,
2.03,
2.34,
2.69,
2.88,
2.74,
2.6,
2.44,
2.21,
1.99,
1.92,
2.03,
1.85,
1.69,
1.45,
0.86,
0.34,
-0.12,
-0.48,
-0.88,
-1.4,
-1.48,
-1.79,
-1.95,
-2.33,
-2.2,
-1.5,
-1.85,
-2.0,
-1.8,
-1.28,
-1.32,
-1.89,
-1.62,
-1.59,
-2.03,
-2.16,
-2.14,
-1.69,
-1.21,
-0.78,
-0.17,
0.07,
0.3,
0.38,
0.45,
0.66,
0.85,
1.27,
1.9,
2.64,
3.53,
4.5,
5.34,
5.9,
6.34,
6.4,
6.08,
5.57,
5.0,
4.58,
3.9,
3.16,
2.52,
1.92,
1.45,
1.01,
0.78,
0.73,
0.77,
0.71,
0.73,
0.73,
0.72,
0.68,
0.53,
0.44,
0.23,
0.03,
-0.23,
-0.45,
-0.61,
-0.75,
-0.86,
-0.91,
-0.94,
-0.97,
-0.91,
-0.85,
-0.81,
-0.79,
-0.76,
-0.82,
-0.9,
-0.93,
-0.85,
-0.77,
-0.61,
-0.26,
0.01,
null
],
"spark_index": [
89.82,
89.66,
89.66,
89.82,
89.17,
88.87,
89.44,
88.49,
87.95,
88.28,
88.61,
88.41,
88.96,
88.47,
88.89,
89.23,
89.41,
89.63,
89.48,
89.48,
90.03,
90.16,
89.89,
89.64,
89.16,
89.23,
89.35,
89.21,
89.36,
89.08,
89.16,
88.86,
89.34,
88.81,
88.95,
89.43,
89.14,
89.12,
88.59,
88.89,
88.87,
88.72,
88.69,
88.08,
88.57,
88.39,
87.74,
87.74,
88.37,
88.94,
89.14,
89.02,
90.03,
89.69,
89.97,
90.73,
90.71,
91.43,
91.68,
92.17,
91.86,
91.94,
92.08,
92.41,
91.98,
91.48,
92.25,
91.74,
91.03,
89.92,
89.45,
88.91,
87.93,
87.08,
85.93,
84.22,
83.93,
83.17,
82.81,
82.8,
82.54,
81.75,
81.43,
80.83,
80.54,
80.57,
79.97,
78.75,
78.59,
78.27,
77.74,
77.65,
77.63,
76.76,
76.39,
75.11,
75.71,
75.46,
75.19,
74.99,
74.26,
74.11,
73.9,
73.56,
73.72,
73.94,
73.55,
74.09,
74.91,
75.01,
75.07,
75.34,
76.14,
76.4,
77.07,
77.49,
78.35,
78.81,
79.37,
79.51,
80.65,
80.7,
81.43,
82.95,
83.71,
83.74,
84.74,
84.41,
84.98,
85.35,
85.43,
86.1,
86.11,
86.11,
86.29,
85.94,
85.93,
86.34,
86.99,
86.8,
86.69,
87.25,
87.56,
88.09,
87.73,
87.63,
88.47,
88.38,
88.55,
88.95,
87.6,
87.58,
87.6,
87.36,
88.01,
88.15,
88.82,
88.19,
86.57,
85.43,
83.89,
81.45,
80.77,
80.05,
79.53,
78.37,
77.65,
76.73,
76.14,
75.85,
75.45,
74.91,
74.15,
73.6,
72.69,
72.49,
71.73,
71.53,
71.24,
70.8,
70.69,
70.55,
70.41,
70.02,
70.12,
69.97,
69.56,
69.86,
69.52,
69.88,
69.76,
69.49,
69.62,
70.15,
70.21,
70.54,
70.34,
70.5,
70.72,
70.96,
71.09,
71.32,
71.08,
71.08,
71.11,
71.14,
71.36,
71.55,
71.71,
72.31,
72.69,
72.62,
72.77,
72.5,
72.27,
72.64,
72.5,
72.44,
72.57,
72.8,
72.59,
72.86,
73.22,
73.17,
73.83,
73.98,
74.32,
74.42,
74.69,
74.9,
74.79,
74.67,
74.6,
74.52,
74.71,
74.53,
74.75,
74.98,
75.03,
75.77,
75.98,
75.95,
76.48,
76.32,
76.62,
76.85,
76.56,
76.76,
77.35,
77.76,
78.35,
78.32,
78.79,
78.93,
79.28,
79.51,
80.11,
80.17,
80.92,
81.31,
81.02,
81.34,
81.5,
81.69,
81.67,
82.1,
81.8,
82.28,
82.68,
83.53,
83.87,
84.33,
84.54,
85.38,
86.24,
86.88,
86.27,
86.57,
86.59,
87.0,
87.69,
88.63,
88.56,
87.99,
87.85,
87.85,
87.08,
87.66,
87.31,
86.59,
85.99,
85.14,
85.38,
85.1,
84.96,
83.31,
84.12,
85.37,
82.66,
82.75,
83.66,
83.34,
82.68,
82.05,
81.72,
81.23,
80.54,
80.84,
80.58,
81.5,
81.7,
81.51,
81.89,
81.52,
81.45,
82.08,
82.32,
82.69,
83.22,
83.86,
84.93,
86.54,
88.1,
89.61,
90.65,
91.16,
92.39,
93.07,
93.37,
93.91,
94.23,
94.7,
94.59,
94.38,
94.29,
94.32,
94.52,
94.61,
94.79,
94.97,
95.16,
94.89,
95.29,
95.36,
95.47,
95.56,
95.29,
95.11,
95.01,
94.89,
94.57,
94.58,
94.26,
94.0,
93.89,
93.84,
93.57,
93.54,
93.5,
93.28,
93.19,
93.11,
92.89,
92.58,
92.4,
92.28,
92.53,
92.53,
92.7,
93.2,
93.09,
null
]
}
},
"cl_ratio_mom6": -0.708015611458201,
"recession_signal": {
"available": true,
"state": "off",
"label": "no recession signal",
"label_zh": "\u65e0\u8870\u9000\u4fe1\u53f7",
"months_active": 38,
"fired_on": null,
"conditions": {
"depth": false,
"breadth": false,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"roc_threshold": -1.0
}
},
"recession_now": false,
"phase": {
"label": "recovery",
"label_zh": "\u590d\u82cf"
},
"measured": {
"method": "LORO",
"operating_point": {
"roc_threshold": -1.0,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"min_consecutive_m": 3
},
"extra_uniform_lag_m": 0,
"vintage_used": true,
"leg_basis": {
"AWHMAN": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"ICSA": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "vintage",
"revised": false,
"pub_lag_m": 0
},
"PERMIT": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"NEWORDER": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"SPY": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 0
},
"BAMLH0A0HYM2": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 0
},
"T10Y3M": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 0
},
"UMCSENT": {
"tier": "leading",
"basis": "vintage",
"revised": false,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"PAYEMS": {
"tier": "coincident",
"basis": "vintage",
"revised": false,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"W875RX1": {
"tier": "coincident",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"CMRMTSPL": {
"tier": "coincident",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 2
},
"INDPRO": {
"tier": "coincident",
"basis": "vintage",
"revised": false,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"UEMPMEAN": {
"tier": "lagging",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"ISRATIO": {
"tier": "lagging",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 2
},
"BUSLOANS": {
"tier": "lagging",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
},
"MPRIME": {
"tier": "lagging",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 0
},
"CUSR0000SAS": {
"tier": "lagging",
"basis": "revised",
"revised": true,
"pub_lag_m": 1
}
},
"calibration_window": "1985-01-01..present (per-leg publication lags; vintage=on)",
"oos_endogenous": 3,
"oos_caught": 2,
"oos_catch_rate": 0.667,
"oos_catch_rate_jeffreys95": [
0.179,
0.961
],
"oos_mean_lead_months": 10.5,
"oos_median_lead_months": 10.5,
"oos_mean_lead_boot95": [
7.0,
14.0
],
"consensus_false_positives": 5,
"per_holdout": [
{
"held_out_peak": "1990-07",
"train_operating_point": {
"roc_threshold": -1.5,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"min_consecutive_m": 2
},
"train_endo_caught": 2,
"train_n_endogenous": 2,
"oos_caught": false,
"oos_lead_months": null,
"config_false_positives": 3
},
{
"held_out_peak": "2001-03",
"train_operating_point": {
"roc_threshold": -1.0,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"min_consecutive_m": 3
},
"train_endo_caught": 2,
"train_n_endogenous": 2,
"oos_caught": true,
"oos_lead_months": 7.0,
"config_false_positives": 5
},
{
"held_out_peak": "2007-12",
"train_operating_point": {
"roc_threshold": -1.0,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"min_consecutive_m": 3
},
"train_endo_caught": 2,
"train_n_endogenous": 2,
"oos_caught": true,
"oos_lead_months": 14.0,
"config_false_positives": 5
}
],
"in_sample_reference": {
"operating_point": {
"roc_threshold": -1.0,
"diffusion_max": 50.0,
"min_consecutive_m": 3
},
"endo_caught": 3,
"endo_recessions": 3,
"mean_lead_months": 10.7,
"median_lead_months": 11.0,
"false_positives": 5,
"note": "IN-SAMPLE (fit and scored on the same 1985+ window) \u2014 reference only, NOT the headline. See out-of-sample stats above."
},
"pit_era_caught": 2,
"pit_era_recessions": 2,
"pit_era_false_positives": 4,
"caveat": "Out-of-sample (leave-one-recession-out) on N\u22483 endogenous recessions \u2014 even the OOS estimate is underpowered; the Jeffreys interval on the catch rate is wide. Vintage (initial-release) data for legs with ALFRED coverage (ICSA/UMCSENT/PAYEMS/INDPRO); the rest use revised data so their leads are an upper bound. COVID-2020 is exogenous and excluded from lead stats."
},
"calibrated": true,
"calibration_resolution": {
"threshold_source": "calibration",
"reason": "version-matched + fresh",
"calibration_version": "w2.7-loro-v1",
"calibration_generated_at": "2026-07-02T12:32:51Z",
"calibration_age_days": 18
},
"lag_passport": {
"basis": "per_leg_schedule",
"extra_uniform_lag_m": 0,
"per_leg_lag_m": {
"AWHMAN": 1,
"ICSA": 0,
"PERMIT": 1,
"NEWORDER": 1,
"SPY": 0,
"BAMLH0A0HYM2": 0,
"T10Y3M": 0,
"UMCSENT": 1,
"PAYEMS": 1,
"W875RX1": 1,
"CMRMTSPL": 2,
"INDPRO": 1,
"UEMPMEAN": 1,
"ISRATIO": 2,
"BUSLOANS": 1,
"MPRIME": 0,
"CUSR0000SAS": 1
},
"symmetric": true,
"note": "Publication lag is a per-leg schedule (PUB_LAG_M) applied symmetrically on the live and validation paths (macro-regime-6). Daily leading legs (SPY/curve/HY/claims) are knowable intramonth \u2192 lag 0; monthly hard data carry their real release lag (1-2 months). `extra_uniform_lag_m` is any additional uniform stress lag on top (default 0)."
},
"shadow": null,
"spark_recession": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
1.0,
1.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.0
],
"caveat": "Effective sample is tiny (~7 modern US recessions, ~3 point-in-time) \u2014 a recession-RISK timeline, not a crash oracle. Lead times are measured against NBER dates; see the validation report.",
"caveat_zh": "\u6709\u6548\u6837\u672c\u6781\u5c0f\uff08\u73b0\u4ee3\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7ea6 7 \u6b21\uff0c\u53ef\u70b9\u5bf9\u70b9\u56de\u6eaf\u7ea6 3 \u6b21\uff09\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u8870\u9000\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u201d\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u5d29\u76d8\u9884\u8a00\u3002\u9886\u5148\u65f6\u957f\u4ee5 NBER \u65e5\u671f\u4e3a\u51c6\uff0c\u8be6\u89c1\u9a8c\u8bc1\u62a5\u544a\u3002"
},
"conditions": {
"financial_conditions": {
"nfci": -0.538,
"nfci_pctile": 0.10476190476190476,
"nfci_change_13w": -0.05800000000000005,
"state": "loose",
"trend": "loosening",
"subindices": {
"nfci_risk": -0.619,
"nfci_credit": -0.044,
"nfci_leverage": 0.327
},
"stlfsi": -0.882
},
"systemic_stress": {
"ofr_fsi": -2.526,
"ofr_fsi_pctile": 0.08095238095238096,
"ofr_fsi_change_13w": -0.476,
"state": "calm",
"trend": "easing",
"functional": {
"credit": -1.184,
"equity_valuation": -0.571,
"safe_assets": -0.316,
"funding": -0.015,
"volatility": -0.439
},
"regional": {
"united_states": -1.232,
"other_advanced": -0.751,
"emerging_markets": -0.542
},
"leading_driver": null,
"leading_driver_key": null,
"a2p2_spread_bps": null,
"a2p2_spread_pctile": null,
"cp_bill_spread_bps": null,
"cp_bill_spread_pctile": null,
"cp_stress": null,
"lead_lag": "coincident",
"evidence": "OFR Financial Stress Index: a daily 33-variable global stress gauge with functional (credit / equity valuation / safe assets / funding / volatility) and regional (US / other-advanced / EM) decomposition. A coincident gauge \u2014 it names the stress CHANNEL when markets move as one; display + an optional risk-OFF gate, never cross-sectional alpha."
},
"recession": {
"score": 4.665441130268006,
"label": "low",
"components": {
"prob": 0.54,
"ebp_prob": 11.35401674500448,
"curve": 0.0,
"ebp_level": 19.226190476190478,
"claims": 0.0
},
"curve_raw": 0.39,
"curve_tp_adjusted": 0.39,
"sahm": 0.07,
"ebp": -0.297648271615362,
"ny_fed_prob": 0.54,
"curve_note": "raw and term-premium-adjusted curve agree"
},
"growth_nowcast": {
"wei": 2.61,
"wei_trend": "rising",
"gdpnow": 1.6817
},
"labor_nowcast": {
"initial_claims_4wk": 214250.0,
"continued_claims": 1805000.0,
"claims_yoy_pct": -3.2731376975169257,
"claims_z": -0.7407742275762148,
"claims_trend": "falling",
"indeed_postings": 101.17,
"indeed_chg_3m_pct": -1.7480819656210511,
"indeed_trend": "falling",
"withheld_tax_yoy_pct": 1.054701917169898,
"income_trend": "rising",
"read": "labor mixed"
},
"inflation_nowcast": {
"sticky_ann": 0.22770786500000006,
"sticky_trend": "cooling",
"flexible_ann": 0.2322820853333337,
"median_cpi": 2.10961524352649,
"umich_1y_exp": 4.8,
"read": "transitory (flexible-led)"
},
"risk_appetite": {
"vrp": 7.286576124802327,
"vrp_pctile": 0.7222222222222222,
"vrp_state": "rich (vol overpriced)",
"realized_vol": 11.363423493727947,
"vix_term": 0.9142156846703863,
"vix_term_state": "contango (calm)",
"vix_term_lead_lag": "coincident",
"skew": 147.28,
"skew_pctile": 0.5208333333333334,
"stock_bond_corr": 0.5515109710016998,
"stock_bond_regime": "breakdown (bonds not hedging)",
"roro": 0.5496402818896767,
"roro_state": "risk-on",
"vol_target_scalar": 1.0560197819454158,
"news_sentiment": 0.010867821983993053,
"news_sentiment_z": 0.5849319064902414,
"news_sentiment_state": "optimistic"
},
"drawdown_risk": {
"score": 15.925631864496491,
"band": "low",
"dd10_prob_pct": 10,
"base_rate_pct": 19,
"lead_lag": "lagging",
"basis": "macro/credit composite (recession_risk, NFCI, EBP, HY OAS)",
"is_base_rate": false,
"dd10_prob_informative": true,
"stat_passport": {
"basis": "measured",
"frame": "pit",
"labor_leg": "claims",
"n_base": 8718,
"n_extreme": 953,
"span": "1993-01-29\u20132026-06-30",
"definition": "max peak-to-trough SPY decline over the next 63 trading days",
"note": "Re-measured on the leak-free PIT ('release') frame with the jobless-claims labor leg; replaces the stale 8/26/36/38 (Sahm-era, revised-frame) table. Live gauge fires on 'latest'; its bands are within CI of PIT. Overlap-inflated N + episode-driven high/extreme bands \u2014 a risk read, not a crash oracle."
},
"label": "Macro/credit drawdown pressure (lagging)",
"label_zh": "\u5b8f\u89c2/\u4fe1\u7528\u56de\u64a4\u538b\u529b\uff08\u6ede\u540e\uff09"
},
"capitulation": {
"score": 0,
"active": false,
"strong": false,
"signals_firing": [],
"measured_bounce_pct": 4.5,
"measured_hit_pct": 75,
"base_rate_pct": 2.8
},
"complacency": {
"calm": 1,
"fragility": 1,
"warning": true,
"strong": false,
"state": "watch",
"vix_low": false,
"vix_pctile": 0.6507936507936508,
"contango": true,
"vix_term": 0.9142156846703863,
"breadth_div": false,
"spy_high_prox": 0.9795039272713035,
"breadth_above200_pctile": 0.6527777777777778,
"credit_widen": true,
"hy_oas_chg_21d_bp": 7.0,
"lead_lag": "leading",
"breadth_div_caution": false,
"caution": false,
"caution_reason": null,
"caution_reason_zh": null
},
"style_tilt": {
"yield_chg_1m_bp": 9.0,
"tilt": "neutral",
"driver": "10y yield direction",
"measured": "rising 10y -> value (+0.84%/63d, t=+3.0, all 4 sub-periods); Q1->value, Q4->growth"
}
},
"nowcast_hist": {
"wei": {
"lo": 1.2,
"hi": 3.2,
"last": 2.6,
"years": 3.1,
"trend": "falling",
"dir": "bad",
"kind": "growth",
"baseline": 0.0
},
"gdpnow": {
"lo": -2.7,
"hi": 6.5,
"last": 1.7,
"years": 5.0,
"trend": "rising",
"dir": "good",
"kind": "growth",
"baseline": 0.0
},
"sticky": {
"lo": 0.2,
"hi": 0.3,
"last": 0.2,
"years": 0.8,
"trend": "flat",
"dir": "flat",
"kind": "inflation",
"baseline": 2.0
},
"flexible": {
"lo": 0.0,
"hi": 1.7,
"last": 0.2,
"years": 0.8,
"trend": "cooling",
"dir": "good",
"kind": "inflation",
"baseline": 2.0
}
},
"fear_euphoria": {
"fe_score": 89,
"band": "Greed",
"roro": 0.5496402818896767,
"roro_state": "risk-on",
"legs": [
{
"key": "vix",
"name_en": "VIX",
"name_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 VIX",
"value": -0.151,
"pct": 36,
"lean": "risk-off"
},
{
"key": "hy_oas",
"name_en": "HY credit spread",
"name_zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee",
"value": 0.972,
"pct": 66,
"lean": "risk-on"
},
{
"key": "skew",
"name_en": "SKEW (tail pricing)",
"name_zh": "SKEW \u5c3e\u90e8\u5b9a\u4ef7",
"value": -0.245,
"pct": 39,
"lean": "risk-off"
},
{
"key": "vix_term",
"name_en": "VIX term structure",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784",
"value": -0.614,
"pct": 31,
"lean": "risk-off"
},
{
"key": "nfci",
"name_en": "Financial conditions (NFCI)",
"name_zh": "\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6 NFCI",
"value": 1.014,
"pct": 65,
"lean": "risk-on"
},
{
"key": "copper_gold",
"name_en": "Copper/Gold",
"name_zh": "\u94dc\uff0f\u91d1 \u6bd4",
"value": 2.668,
"pct": 100,
"lean": "risk-on"
},
{
"key": "dxy",
"name_en": "Dollar (20d %\u0394)",
"name_zh": "\u7f8e\u5143\uff0820\u65e5 %\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"value": 0.203,
"pct": 59,
"lean": "risk-on"
}
],
"confirmation": {
"n_on": 4,
"n_off": 3,
"total": 7,
"agree": 4,
"direction": "risk-on",
"confirmed_by": [
{
"key": "hy_oas",
"en": "HY credit spread",
"zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee"
},
{
"key": "nfci",
"en": "Financial conditions (NFCI)",
"zh": "\u91d1\u878d\u6761\u4ef6 NFCI"
},
{
"key": "copper_gold",
"en": "Copper/Gold",
"zh": "\u94dc\uff0f\u91d1 \u6bd4"
},
{
"key": "dxy",
"en": "Dollar (20d %\u0394)",
"zh": "\u7f8e\u5143\uff0820\u65e5 %\u53d8\u52a8\uff09"
}
],
"dissent": [
{
"key": "vix",
"en": "VIX",
"zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387 VIX"
},
{
"key": "skew",
"en": "SKEW (tail pricing)",
"zh": "SKEW \u5c3e\u90e8\u5b9a\u4ef7"
},
{
"key": "vix_term",
"en": "VIX term structure",
"zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784"
}
],
"verdict_en": "divergent (no consensus)",
"verdict_zh": "\u80cc\u79bb\uff08\u65e0\u5171\u8bc6\uff09"
},
"positioning": {
"chip": "diverges",
"smart_money_lean": "bearish",
"cot_washed_out": false,
"cot_crowded_long": false,
"insider_breadth": -0.658,
"price_up": true
}
},
"fear_greed": {
"dial": 48,
"label_en": "Neutral",
"label_zh": "\u4e2d\u6027",
"legs_included": [
{
"key": "spx_momentum",
"name_en": "SPX momentum (vs 125d MA)",
"name_zh": "\u6807\u666e\u52a8\u91cf\uff08\u5bf9\u6bd4125\u65e5\u5747\u7ebf\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "% above/below MA",
"value": 4.89,
"z": 0.373,
"pct": 62,
"pct_hist": [
58.2,
65.2,
66.3,
61.3,
61.0,
69.2,
71.0,
67.8,
73.7,
83.8,
81.0,
85.8,
86.5,
85.3,
87.9,
91.1,
84.8,
84.0,
76.2,
83.4,
84.1,
85.6,
88.5,
87.9,
90.0,
90.7,
91.6,
91.8,
88.1,
89.4,
71.3,
72.6,
69.8,
55.2,
69.7,
73.6,
85.7,
81.4,
70.6,
78.3,
75.2,
62.6,
61.4,
62.4,
54.9,
69.2,
75.0,
73.2,
71.4,
77.9,
73.5,
70.4,
76.8,
79.5,
72.8,
75.2,
77.8,
72.7,
64.1,
62.1
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 8424,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "nh_nl_ratio",
"name_en": "52-week strength (new-high ratio)",
"name_zh": "52\u5468\u5f3a\u52bf\uff08\u65b0\u9ad8\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "ratio 0-1",
"value": 0.533,
"z": -0.65,
"pct": 24,
"pct_hist": [
45.0,
36.9,
27.4,
17.0,
17.0,
42.5,
30.4,
20.2,
33.2,
32.8,
27.0,
23.5,
19.6,
18.5,
19.2,
25.3,
14.3,
37.0,
19.8,
55.6,
42.9,
100.0,
52.4,
33.2,
27.7,
27.6,
32.3,
26.3,
26.3,
35.6,
32.8,
24.4,
50.8,
24.0,
33.2,
46.1,
46.0,
46.0,
18.8,
20.0,
23.9,
30.4,
39.4,
32.5,
58.3,
39.7,
30.4,
62.1,
100.0,
53.4,
100.0,
45.1,
58.2,
59.0,
56.6,
42.6,
45.1,
68.2,
49.2,
23.8
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 14958,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "mcclellan",
"name_en": "McClellan oscillator",
"name_zh": "\u9ea6\u514b\u83b1\u4f26\u632f\u8361\u5668",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "oscillator",
"value": -21.7,
"z": -0.489,
"pct": 30,
"pct_hist": [
60.5,
43.9,
38.7,
34.9,
22.8,
45.7,
31.9,
19.3,
31.9,
44.6,
31.7,
26.4,
23.3,
26.8,
19.0,
28.8,
16.5,
34.2,
25.7,
45.0,
52.2,
70.6,
67.1,
61.5,
57.3,
46.1,
38.6,
40.5,
33.1,
54.6,
51.4,
38.5,
60.8,
45.5,
58.2,
80.8,
77.8,
76.7,
40.4,
43.3,
46.5,
51.9,
63.6,
70.2,
78.4,
70.3,
59.2,
65.0,
79.2,
69.2,
70.7,
40.6,
49.2,
63.9,
64.0,
51.4,
50.6,
70.0,
46.2,
30.2
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 16195,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "hy_oas",
"name_en": "Junk demand (HY OAS)",
"name_zh": "\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u9700\u6c42\uff08HY \u5229\u5dee\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "OAS bps",
"value": 2.73,
"z": 0.963,
"pct": 96,
"pct_hist": [
93.8,
94.7,
94.4,
95.9,
95.7,
95.9,
96.0,
95.4,
94.9,
95.4,
94.6,
94.6,
95.9,
95.1,
94.3,
93.3,
95.1,
95.6,
96.2,
96.2,
96.4,
96.6,
96.4,
96.4,
96.1,
96.4,
96.6,
95.9,
96.1,
95.8,
95.9,
95.5,
94.9,
95.5,
96.6,
97.7,
96.6,
98.2,
97.7,
97.7,
97.9,
96.5,
95.6,
95.3,
93.9,
94.8,
95.8,
96.0,
95.8,
95.9,
96.3,
97.4,
96.8,
96.8,
96.9,
96.9,
96.2,
96.4,
96.4,
96.0
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 7716,
"last_date": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"key": "safe_haven",
"name_en": "Safe haven demand (SPY \u2212 TLT 20d)",
"name_zh": "\u907f\u9669\u9700\u6c42\uff08SPY\u2212TLT 20\u65e5\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "20d ret diff %",
"value": 2.32,
"z": 0.275,
"pct": 60,
"pct_hist": [
91.5,
95.6,
97.9,
98.6,
96.4,
96.8,
97.2,
96.9,
97.1,
94.6,
93.1,
93.6,
93.8,
93.2,
92.1,
91.4,
90.9,
91.6,
91.0,
88.2,
88.3,
85.0,
82.8,
84.7,
81.2,
75.8,
77.7,
77.4,
72.8,
69.0,
49.9,
53.8,
39.9,
27.3,
25.1,
25.9,
35.4,
27.5,
21.2,
24.6,
28.0,
20.5,
14.8,
16.1,
14.0,
18.3,
26.4,
28.0,
29.0,
34.3,
55.8,
48.6,
62.1,
75.8,
70.9,
66.5,
53.7,
59.1,
59.5,
59.5
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 6011,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "vix_level",
"name_en": "VIX level",
"name_zh": "VIX \u6c34\u5e73",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "VIX points",
"value": 18.6,
"z": 0.103,
"pct": 44,
"pct_hist": [
47.6,
48.8,
43.5,
54.4,
53.7,
46.3,
51.4,
51.3,
53.1,
52.5,
45.8,
47.8,
48.5,
52.1,
45.6,
48.8,
47.4,
51.0,
55.3,
55.7,
56.7,
53.6,
58.9,
63.0,
65.9,
60.7,
62.8,
60.7,
65.4,
30.1,
42.8,
37.9,
27.2,
40.2,
49.6,
59.6,
57.9,
45.5,
58.0,
55.1,
51.9,
39.8,
44.3,
43.0,
45.6,
49.8,
57.6,
56.7,
60.0,
64.2,
60.1,
54.4,
62.4,
67.8,
52.6,
57.2,
63.5,
55.5,
43.4,
44.1
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9205,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "vix_trend",
"name_en": "VIX trend (20d change)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u8d8b\u52bf\uff0820\u65e5\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "VIX 20d delta",
"value": 1.87,
"z": -0.359,
"pct": 25,
"pct_hist": [
99.1,
99.0,
94.1,
96.2,
95.0,
92.8,
97.2,
84.7,
76.1,
72.6,
56.7,
51.3,
50.0,
55.7,
33.9,
61.1,
66.0,
66.4,
77.4,
72.4,
65.8,
57.7,
77.1,
62.3,
68.6,
74.5,
67.8,
64.6,
68.8,
11.4,
38.5,
24.8,
11.3,
22.3,
56.7,
68.0,
68.4,
33.4,
50.9,
44.5,
36.8,
20.4,
21.3,
16.2,
16.5,
27.1,
36.9,
38.6,
36.3,
93.0,
79.6,
80.8,
94.0,
87.9,
53.2,
41.9,
56.6,
69.2,
21.0,
24.9
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9185,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "vix_term",
"name_en": "VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784\uff08VIX/VIX3M\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "ratio (>=1=backwardation)",
"value": 0.914,
"z": -0.076,
"pct": 41,
"pct_hist": [
49.4,
60.8,
66.8,
65.1,
55.0,
80.3,
83.5,
65.9,
83.2,
78.0,
81.2,
81.6,
67.9,
72.9,
79.0,
86.0,
69.0,
74.7,
72.9,
81.0,
81.9,
83.7,
72.8,
82.1,
87.5,
88.4,
86.7,
92.3,
91.2,
94.3,
14.5,
43.2,
33.5,
18.8,
44.5,
69.3,
82.4,
80.7,
51.5,
81.7,
62.4,
36.4,
41.1,
34.8,
41.2,
46.4,
67.5,
67.5,
76.5,
85.5,
76.4,
66.0,
83.4,
92.2,
62.8,
72.8,
85.6,
71.2,
41.5,
41.2
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5033,
"last_date": "2026-07-20"
},
{
"key": "skew",
"name_en": "CBOE SKEW (tail risk pricing)",
"name_zh": "CBOE SKEW\uff08\u5c3e\u90e8\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\uff09",
"orientation": "lower=greed",
"unit": "SKEW index",
"value": 147.3,
"z": -2.075,
"pct": 5,
"pct_hist": [
9.5,
10.6,
11.2,
10.5,
12.2,
8.5,
7.3,
9.0,
8.6,
11.7,
15.2,
14.5,
12.1,
10.0,
10.8,
8.8,
11.0,
5.8,
12.0,
15.2,
18.9,
13.4,
13.1,
11.3,
11.9,
10.7,
6.7,
8.0,
7.4,
13.6,
8.3,
2.6,
6.2,
8.5,
7.5,
7.6,
7.9,
6.6,
7.9,
7.9,
5.1,
8.7,
7.5,
6.0,
10.5,
11.1,
6.6,
3.7,
1.7,
3.5,
6.0,
5.9,
3.6,
6.5,
6.8,
5.9,
6.2,
4.2,
5.9,
4.9
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9186,
"last_date": "2026-07-17"
},
{
"key": "naaim",
"name_en": "NAAIM exposure",
"name_zh": "NAAIM \u4ed3\u4f4d\u655e\u53e3",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "% exposure 0-200",
"value": 95.6,
"z": 1.195,
"pct": 91,
"pct_hist": [
82.7,
68.8,
71.7,
90.6,
68.4,
95.9,
78.1,
73.3,
67.8,
60.9,
92.8,
77.3,
94.8,
88.7,
68.1,
77.8,
74.9,
77.9,
66.4,
74.5,
75.0,
85.1,
96.5,
84.5,
81.1,
78.5,
84.5,
95.0,
93.4,
96.4,
91.1,
88.3,
94.1,
92.1,
81.7,
87.5,
74.2,
64.9,
70.1,
55.5,
63.3,
42.4,
34.5,
45.3,
45.1,
47.1,
63.9,
90.0,
89.3,
93.0,
59.9,
68.4,
94.8,
78.3,
63.0,
87.7,
95.0,
73.3,
70.2,
91.5
],
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 1045,
"last_date": "2026-07-15"
},
{
"key": "insider",
"name_en": "Insider demand (quarterly net buy $)",
"name_zh": "\u5185\u90e8\u4eba\u9700\u6c42\uff08\u5b63\u5ea6\u51c0\u8d2d\u5165\uff09",
"orientation": "higher=greed",
"unit": "net USD billions",
"value": -17.8,
"z": -0.372,
"pct": 19,
"pct_hist": [
40.9,
91.3,
66.7,
24.0,
69.2,
48.1,
17.9,
37.9,
16.7,
19.4,
28.1,
24.2,
38.2,
57.1,
30.6,
13.5,
31.6,
79.5,
55.0,
87.8,
50.0,
41.9,
40.9,
20.0,
50.0,
53.2,
8.3,
51.0,
32.0,
21.6,
86.5,
30.2,
57.4,
12.7,
48.2,
38.6,
25.9,
1.7,
1.7,
1.6,
1.6,
4.8,
1.6,
72.3,
45.5,
58.2,
61.8,
55.1,
50.0,
67.6,
56.9,
8.2,
9.5,
18.7,
7.9,
18.2,
14.1,
7.6,
11.2,
18.5
],
"freshness": "stale",
"obs_count": 81,
"last_date": "2026-03-31"
}
],
"legs_excluded_young": [],
"young_tiles": [
{
"key": "putcall",
"freshness": "young",
"obs_count": 32,
"name_en": "CBOE put/call ratio",
"name_zh": "CBOE \u770b\u8dcc/\u770b\u6da8\u6bd4\u7387",
"value": 1.222,
"as_of": "2026-07-20",
"note_en": "Series too young to z-score (< 252 obs); shown as raw context.",
"note_zh": "\u5e8f\u5217\u8fc7\u77ed\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97 z \u5206\u6570\uff08< 252 \u6761\uff09\uff1b\u663e\u793a\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u53c2\u8003\u3002"
},
{
"key": "aaii",
"freshness": "young",
"obs_count": 24,
"name_en": "AAII sentiment (bullish %)",
"name_zh": "AAII \u60c5\u7eea\uff08\u770b\u591a\u5360\u6bd4\uff09",
"value": 44.9,
"as_of": "2026-07-15",
"note_en": "Series too young to z-score (< 104 weekly obs); shown as raw context.",
"note_zh": "\u5e8f\u5217\u8fc7\u77ed\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8ba1\u7b97 z \u5206\u6570\uff08< 104 \u5468\u6761\uff09\uff1b\u663e\u793a\u4e3a\u539f\u59cb\u53c2\u8003\u3002"
}
],
"n_legs_qualifying": 11,
"as_of": "2026-07-20",
"generated_utc": "2026-07-21T01:46:30Z",
"disclaimer_en": "Sentiment context only \u2014 display-only composite of public market indicators. Never scored, never feeds the regime engine, no forward claim. Greed/fear readings are not contrarian signals without regime context.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4e3a\u60c5\u7eea\u53c2\u8003 \u2014 \u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u6307\u6807\u7684\u4ec5\u5c55\u793a\u5408\u6210\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fdb\u5165\u5468\u671f\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8d2a\u5a6a/\u6050\u60e7\u8bfb\u6570\u82e5\u65e0\u5468\u671f\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u53cd\u5411\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002"
},
"vol_weather": {
"chips": [
{
"key": "vix_level",
"name_en": "VIX level",
"name_zh": "VIX \u6c34\u5e73",
"value": 18.6,
"pctile": 70,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"plain_en": "Volatility is in a normal range.",
"plain_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u533a\u95f4\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9205,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
59,
56,
66,
43,
45,
62,
51,
52,
46,
48,
65,
61,
60,
50,
66,
59,
63,
53,
40,
39,
36,
47,
27,
20,
14,
24,
21,
25,
16,
87,
72,
79,
88,
75,
60,
28,
35,
69,
35,
46,
55,
77,
71,
72,
68,
60,
37,
39,
28,
18,
28,
47,
23,
10,
50,
38,
20,
44,
71,
70
]
},
{
"key": "vix_velocity",
"name_en": "VIX velocity (5d change)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u901f\u5ea6\uff085\u65e5\u53d8\u52a8\uff09",
"value": 1.49,
"pctile": 80,
"band": "quiet",
"state": "quiet",
"chg20_pctile": 70,
"plain_en": "Volatility change is within normal daily variation.",
"plain_zh": "\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u53d8\u5316\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u65e5\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 9205,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
36,
25,
51,
15,
22,
58,
43,
27,
55,
55,
53,
65,
62,
53,
76,
38,
51,
41,
39,
18,
27,
28,
28,
29,
25,
40,
26,
46,
45,
98,
88,
93,
98,
91,
7,
11,
9,
8,
11,
32,
73,
89,
54,
85,
81,
59,
10,
16,
11,
11,
24,
62,
36,
28,
80,
59,
27,
68,
91,
80
]
},
{
"key": "vvix_vix",
"name_en": "VVIX / VIX divergence",
"name_zh": "VVIX / VIX \u80cc\u79bb",
"value": 5.513,
"pctile": 70,
"band": "elevated",
"state": "elevated",
"vvix_pctile": 70,
"vix_pctile": 70,
"divergence": false,
"plain_en": "Implied vol-of-vol is elevated \u2014 traders are paying up for vol protection.",
"plain_zh": "\u9690\u542b\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u6ce2\u52a8\u4fdd\u62a4\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5064,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
48,
41,
25,
13,
34,
25,
30,
49,
31,
25,
25,
40,
49,
51,
50,
27,
21,
13,
28,
38,
16,
13,
6,
3,
3,
3,
16,
11,
10,
2,
66,
22,
36,
79,
61,
28,
5,
5,
31,
6,
18,
58,
38,
16,
7,
7,
4,
9,
8,
4,
6,
18,
9,
5,
36,
28,
20,
47,
77,
70
]
},
{
"key": "term_slope",
"name_en": "VIX term slope (9D / 3M)",
"name_zh": "VIX \u671f\u9650\u659c\u7387\uff089D / 3M\uff09",
"value": 0.872,
"pctile": 77,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"plain_en": "Term structure is normal \u2014 vol market shows no unusual stress.",
"plain_zh": "\u671f\u9650\u7ed3\u6784\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u5f02\u5e38\u538b\u529b\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 3908,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
66,
52,
58,
60,
64,
24,
16,
54,
19,
25,
24,
15,
58,
51,
39,
31,
46,
62,
56,
31,
20,
20,
39,
13,
13,
12,
23,
13,
13,
6,
99,
88,
95,
100,
89,
72,
63,
64,
82,
27,
69,
84,
80,
79,
69,
60,
32,
16,
4,
6,
23,
39,
7,
2,
49,
19,
3,
28,
67,
77
]
},
{
"key": "vix1d",
"name_en": "VIX1D (intraday vol demand)",
"name_zh": "VIX1D\uff08\u76d8\u4e2d\u6ce2\u52a8\u9700\u6c42\uff09",
"value": 13.43,
"pctile": 56,
"band": "normal",
"state": "normal",
"plain_en": "Very short-term vol demand is normal.",
"plain_zh": "\u8d85\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u9700\u6c42\u5904\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 1048,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
62,
71,
22,
34,
80,
34,
55,
48,
25,
35,
46,
49,
33,
27,
34,
39,
76,
54,
55,
73,
61,
79,
31,
17,
28,
49,
12,
7,
36,
24,
97,
72,
88,
95,
89,
86,
55,
71,
88,
69,
50,
76,
76,
70,
81,
56,
37,
53,
55,
6,
25,
51,
20,
15,
65,
23,
12,
52,
76,
56
]
},
{
"key": "dspx",
"name_en": "DSPX (single-stock vol vs index)",
"name_zh": "DSPX\uff08\u4e2a\u80a1\u6ce2\u52a8 vs \u6307\u6570\uff09",
"value": 47.15,
"pctile": 99,
"band": "high",
"state": "high",
"plain_en": "Single-stock vol is running well above index vol \u2014 individual names are unusually risky relative to the market.",
"plain_zh": "\u4e2a\u80a1\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6307\u6570\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff0c\u4e2a\u80a1\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\u504f\u9ad8\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 3038,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
96,
99,
100,
99,
99,
87,
79,
79,
88,
88,
86,
95,
99,
98,
100,
99,
97,
97,
94,
97,
86,
82,
98,
98,
97,
100,
100,
99,
99,
98,
95,
98,
97,
92,
97,
96,
98,
91,
93,
98,
99,
98,
98,
98,
98,
100,
100,
99,
100,
100,
99,
100,
100,
99,
99,
99,
98,
97,
99,
99
],
"vixeq_minus_vix": 32.0
},
{
"key": "cor1m",
"name_en": "COR1M (1-month implied correlation)",
"name_zh": "COR1M\uff081\u4e2a\u6708\u9690\u542b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff09",
"value": 6.81,
"pctile": 7,
"band": "low",
"state": "low",
"plain_en": "Stocks are moving more independently \u2014 the market is rewarding stock selection.",
"plain_zh": "\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u66f4\u52a0\u72ec\u7acb\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u5956\u52b1\u4e2a\u80a1\u9009\u62e9\u80fd\u529b\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5167,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
36,
25,
11,
16,
26,
20,
33,
52,
32,
28,
23,
16,
20,
20,
14,
7,
24,
26,
38,
23,
25,
26,
18,
10,
5,
0,
0,
0,
1,
2,
64,
40,
56,
81,
51,
26,
7,
17,
39,
7,
8,
41,
25,
22,
20,
4,
0,
1,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0,
0,
3,
2,
1,
3,
7,
7
]
},
{
"key": "cor3m",
"name_en": "COR3M (3-month implied correlation)",
"name_zh": "COR3M\uff083\u4e2a\u6708\u9690\u542b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff09",
"value": 9.06,
"pctile": 9,
"band": "low",
"state": "low",
"plain_en": "Stocks are expected to behave more independently over the coming quarter.",
"plain_zh": "\u9884\u8ba1\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u80a1\u7968\u8d70\u52bf\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u72ec\u7acb\u3002",
"freshness": "fresh",
"obs_count": 5152,
"last_date": "2026-07-20",
"spark": [
46,
37,
17,
22,
33,
18,
38,
53,
35,
14,
14,
7,
4,
4,
1,
0,
4,
1,
10,
1,
1,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
2,
6,
3,
4,
26,
4,
3,
2,
3,
4,
2,
1,
6,
4,
4,
5,
3,
0,
1,
1,
0,
1,
2,
0,
0,
4,
1,
1,
3,
8,
9
]
}
],
"as_of": "2026-07-20",
"generated_utc": "2026-07-21T01:46:31Z",
"n_young": 0,
"disclaimer_en": "Display-only context \u2014 volatility surface indicators from public CBOE / Yahoo data. Never scored, no forward claim. These chips describe the current vol environment; they do not predict direction.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4f9b\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u80cc\u666f \u2014 \u6765\u81ea\u516c\u5f00 CBOE / Yahoo \u6570\u636e\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u66f2\u9762\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u82af\u7247\u63cf\u8ff0\u5f53\u524d\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u4e0d\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u5411\u3002"
},
"breadth_split": {
"as_of": "2026-07-20",
"cohort_sizes": {
"ai_core": 56,
"ai_infra_power": 15,
"ai_total": 71,
"non_ai": 438,
"universe": 509,
"ai_core_tagged": 120,
"ai_infra_power_tagged": 30
},
"latest": {
"ai_pct50": 37.1,
"nonai_pct50": 66.5,
"spread_50": -29.4,
"ai_pct200": 74.3,
"nonai_pct200": 64.9,
"spread_200": 9.3,
"ai_adv_share": 59.2,
"nonai_adv_share": 28.3,
"spread_adv": 30.8
},
"spark": {
"spread_50": [
-6.6,
-1.2,
-3.5,
-6.6,
-4.7,
-7.1,
-12.9,
-14.7,
-10.5,
-4.6,
-1.8,
-3.5,
-4.1,
-7.4,
-7.6,
-11.3,
-4.7,
-7.1,
-8.8,
-4.5,
-1.9,
-4.0,
-5.2,
-7.2,
-8.0,
-0.1,
0.7,
-4.3,
9.5,
12.9,
17.4,
12.2,
13.7,
16.8,
22.0,
26.9,
33.5,
24.3,
27.9,
22.0,
27.8,
11.7,
13.6,
4.8,
6.6,
16.4,
19.5,
17.2,
26.2,
14.3,
16.5,
21.3,
16.3,
18.7,
18.9,
21.3,
20.3,
14.0,
17.4,
25.6,
16.9,
26.5,
22.9,
23.7,
21.9,
19.7,
24.2,
34.6,
29.2,
19.7,
20.8,
20.8,
19.8,
22.0,
26.1,
26.6,
28.0,
18.9,
23.1,
20.3,
20.2,
26.4,
24.0,
25.4,
24.0,
26.3,
31.0,
28.7,
32.9,
26.6,
12.8,
15.6,
-0.6,
-9.3,
-5.6,
-4.6,
-0.3,
-4.5,
-2.9,
3.8,
8.9,
2.6,
-0.9,
2.4,
-11.1,
-2.3,
-2.5,
-8.9,
-21.9,
-13.1,
-25.7,
-18.2,
-13.4,
-16.9,
-25.5,
-12.7,
-19.6,
-32.1,
-31.9,
-29.4
]
},
"young": false,
"young_note": null,
"tag_version": "finviz:2026-06-27|membership:2026-07-03",
"stance_en": "AI-linked names lagging while the rest holds up",
"stance_zh": "AI \u76f8\u5173\u4e2a\u80a1\u843d\u540e\uff0c\u975e AI \u677f\u5757\u76f8\u5bf9\u652f\u6491",
"disclaimer_en": "Display-only composition decomposition \u2014 shows whether tape health is broad or concentrated in AI-adjacent names. Never scored, never feeds any gate or regime engine, no forward claim.",
"disclaimer_zh": "\u4ec5\u4f9b\u5c55\u793a\u7684\u6210\u5206\u5206\u89e3 \u2014 \u663e\u793a\u5e02\u573a\u5065\u5eb7\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e AI \u76f8\u5173\u4e2a\u80a1\u3002\u4e0d\u8ba1\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fdb\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u95f8\u95e8\u6216\u5468\u671f\u5f15\u64ce\uff0c\u65e0\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u3002"
},
"evw_snap": {
"schema": "event_window.snapshot.v1",
"asof": "2026-07-19",
"available": true,
"is_context_only": true,
"phase": "quiet",
"td_to_cpi": null,
"td_to_fomc": null,
"td_to_nfp": null,
"td_to_ppi": null,
"claims_day": false,
"collision_states": {
"cpi_fomc_same_week": false,
"cpi_in_opex_week": false,
"fomc_in_opex_week": false,
"triple_stack": false
},
"active_collisions": [],
"read": "quiet: no statistically robust calendar edge measured (display context).",
"read_zh": "quiet\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u672a\u6d4b\u5f97\u7edf\u8ba1\u663e\u8457\u7684\u65e5\u5386\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\uff09\u3002",
"phase_stats": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.263,
"excess_pct": 0.031,
"fwd_vol": 14.6,
"t_hac": 0.599,
"n": 6656,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.047,
"post_2021_n": 999
},
"ex_ante": null,
"seasonality": {
"available": true,
"fwd_days": 5,
"base_fwd_pct": 0.232,
"n": 8418,
"phases": {
"fomc_day": {
"mean_fwd_pct": -0.075,
"excess_pct": -0.307,
"fwd_vol": 17.14,
"t_hac": -2.156,
"n": 216,
"sign_stable": true,
"significant": true,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.037,
"post_2021_n": 44
},
"fomc_week": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.168,
"excess_pct": -0.064,
"fwd_vol": 17.06,
"t_hac": -0.455,
"n": 864,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": -0.018,
"post_2021_n": 176
},
"post_fomc_3d": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.096,
"excess_pct": -0.136,
"fwd_vol": 15.97,
"t_hac": -1.052,
"n": 648,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.35,
"post_2021_n": 132
},
"quiet": {
"mean_fwd_pct": 0.263,
"excess_pct": 0.031,
"fwd_vol": 14.6,
"t_hac": 0.599,
"n": 6656,
"sign_stable": false,
"significant": false,
"post_2021_excess_pct": 0.047,
"post_2021_n": 999
}
},
"pre_fomc_drift_note": "Pre-FOMC drift (Lucca-Moench) expected DEAD post-2016 \u2014 house ruling. Null printed, not hidden."
},
"doctrine": "Event-window calendar seasonality \u2014 thin, widely-known calendar tilts measured on price history. Context only, never a buy/sell. Pre-FOMC drift expected DEAD post-2016 (house ruling)."
},
"growth_score": 0.067,
"inflation_score": 0.4,
"components_confirming": [
"growth \u00b7 copper vs gold\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u94dc\u5bf9\u9ec4\u91d1",
"growth \u00b7 market breadth\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5e02\u573a\u5e7f\u5ea6",
"growth \u00b7 payrolls\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u975e\u519c\u5c31\u4e1a",
"growth \u00b7 industrial production\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7",
"growth \u00b7 wei_trend\u589e\u957f \u00b7 wei_trend",
"inflation \u00b7 energy sector\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 \u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u5757",
"inflation \u00b7 oil\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 \u539f\u6cb9",
"inflation \u00b7 inflation-winners basket\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 \u901a\u80c0\u53d7\u76ca\u7bee\u5b50"
],
"components_contradicting": [
"growth \u00b7 consumer confidence trade\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u6d88\u8d39\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4ea4\u6613",
"growth \u00b7 small caps\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1",
"growth \u00b7 cyclical sectors\u589e\u957f \u00b7 \u5468\u671f\u6027\u677f\u5757",
"inflation \u00b7 sticky_cpi_direction\u901a\u80c0 \u00b7 sticky_cpi_direction"
],
"commodities": [
{
"ticker": "GC=F",
"name": "Gold",
"price": 4009.4,
"above50": false,
"above200": false,
"pct_vs_50dma": -5.7,
"pct_vs_200dma": -10.5,
"rsi14": 41.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -24.6,
"season_this": "Jul: +0.9% avg, up 54% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +0.9%\uff0c54% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": -11.8
},
{
"ticker": "CL=F",
"name": "Crude Oil",
"price": 82.55,
"above50": false,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": -0.5,
"pct_vs_200dma": 9.9,
"rsi14": 60.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -26.9,
"season_this": "Jul: +1.4% avg, up 69% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +1.4%\uff0c69% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": -22.8
},
{
"ticker": "HG=F",
"name": "Copper",
"price": 6.34,
"above50": true,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": 0.7,
"pct_vs_200dma": 10.0,
"rsi14": 55.0,
"macd_pos": true,
"off_52w_high_pct": -4.7,
"season_this": "Jul: +1.5% avg, up 62% of years (n=26)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 +1.5%\uff0c62% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=26\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": 7.8
},
{
"ticker": "DX-Y.NYB",
"name": "US Dollar",
"price": 101.0,
"above50": true,
"above200": true,
"pct_vs_50dma": 0.8,
"pct_vs_200dma": 1.9,
"rsi14": 56.0,
"macd_pos": false,
"off_52w_high_pct": -0.6,
"season_this": "Jul: -0.2% avg, up 48% of years (n=56)",
"season_this_zh": "7\u6708\uff1a\u5e73\u5747 -0.2%\uff0c48% \u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u4e0a\u6da8\uff08n=56\uff09",
"mom_60d_pct": 2.4
}
],
"vix": {
"last": 18.649999618530273,
"chg": -0.12000083923339844,
"pct": -0.6393225162856231,
"hi": 22.219999313354492,
"lo": 15.029999732971191,
"prev": 18.770000457763672,
"days": 30,
"regime": "normal\u6b63\u5e38",
"tone": "muted",
"ratio": 0.9142156846703863,
"rword": "contango\u6b63\u5411",
"pctile": 55.98321971683272
},
"positioning": [
{
"name": "S&P 500 futures speculators\u6807\u666e500 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 43.13333333333333,
"label": "normal\u6b63\u5e38",
"verdict": "nothing notable\u65e0\u663e\u8457",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Net bets of speculative futures traders on the S&P 500, as % of all open contracts (CFTC weekly data). Deeply negative + low percentile = everyone's already short \u2014 fuel for squeezes. Very high = crowded long. Today: -2.0% of open contracts, 43th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-14, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u6027\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u6807\u666e500\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u90e8\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff08CFTC \u5468\u5ea6\u6570\u636e\uff09\u3002\u6df1\u5ea6\u4e3a\u8d1f + \u4f4e\u767e\u5206\u4f4d = \u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u7a7a \u2014 \u903c\u7a7a\u71c3\u6599\u3002\u6781\u9ad8 = \u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 -2.0%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 43 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-14\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "10-yr Treasury futures speculators10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 4.735883424408015,
"label": "extreme short\u6781\u5ea6\u505a\u7a7a",
"verdict": "everyone is already short \u2014 most extreme in our records; reversal fuel\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u7a7a \u2014 \u6211\u4eec\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e2d\u6700\u6781\u7aef\uff1b\u53cd\u8f6c\u71c3\u6599",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position in 10-year Treasury futures. Extreme shorts have historically preceded falling yields (bond rallies), and vice versa. Today: -15.7% of open contracts, 5th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-14, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u572810\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u503a\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6781\u7aef\u505a\u7a7a\u5f80\u5f80\u5148\u4e8e\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u4e0b\u884c\uff08\u503a\u5238\u4e0a\u6da8\uff09\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 -15.7%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 5 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-14\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "US Dollar futures speculators\u7f8e\u5143 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 60.215053763440864,
"label": "leaning long\u504f\u5411\u505a\u591a",
"verdict": "above normal, nothing extreme\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6781\u7aef",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position on the dollar index. Extremes tend to mark dollar turning points, which matter for commodities and foreign earnings. Today: +24.7% of open contracts, 60th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-14, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u5728\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6570\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u5f80\u5f80\u6807\u5fd7\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\uff0c\u5bf9\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4e0e\u6d77\u5916\u76c8\u5229\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 +24.7%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 60 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-14\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Gold futures speculators\u9ec4\u91d1 \u671f\u8d27\u6295\u673a\u8005",
"pct": 93.86391251518833,
"label": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"verdict": "everyone is already long \u2014 crowded; late to join\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u5df2\u505a\u591a \u2014 \u62e5\u6324\uff1b\u52a0\u5165\u5df2\u665a",
"left": "crowded short\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u7a7a",
"right": "crowded long\u62e5\u6324\u505a\u591a",
"tip": "Speculators' net position in gold futures. Near the 100th percentile = the most crowded gold trade in decades \u2014 vulnerable to shakeouts. Today: +48.7% of open contracts, 94th percentile of 30 years (as of 2026-07-14, 3-day reporting lag).\u6295\u673a\u8005\u5728\u9ec4\u91d1\u671f\u8d27\u4e0a\u7684\u51c0\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u63a5\u8fd1\u7b2c100\u767e\u5206\u4f4d = \u6570\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u62e5\u6324\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ea4\u6613 \u2014 \u6613\u906d\u6d17\u76d8\u3002 \u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u5360\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u5408\u7ea6 +48.7%\uff0c30\u5e74\u5185\u7b2c 94 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-14\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5ef6\u8fdf3\u5929\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Pro fund managers\u4e13\u4e1a\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406",
"pct": 91.48325358851675,
"label": "crowded invested\u62e5\u6324\u91cd\u4ed3",
"verdict": "managers are nearly all-in \u2014 crowded; late to join\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ee1\u4ed3 \u2014 \u62e5\u6324\uff1b\u52a0\u5165\u5df2\u665a",
"left": "all cash\u5168\u73b0\u91d1",
"right": "all-in\u6ee1\u4ed3",
"tip": "NAAIM weekly survey of professional active managers' stock exposure (0 = all cash, 100 = fully invested, >100 = leveraged). Extremes are contrarian. Today: 96, 91th percentile since 2006 (as of 2026-07-15).NAAIM \u5bf9\u4e13\u4e1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u578b\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u80a1\u7968\u655e\u53e3\u7684\u5468\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5\uff080 = \u5168\u73b0\u91d1\uff0c100 = \u6ee1\u4ed3\uff0c>100 = \u52a0\u6760\u6746\uff09\u3002\u6781\u7aef\u503c\u5177\u53cd\u5411\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a96\uff0c2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c 91 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-15\uff09\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Options hedging mood\u671f\u6743\u5bf9\u51b2\u60c5\u7eea",
"pct": null,
"label": "guarded\u8b66\u60d5",
"verdict": "more puts than calls \u2014 mild caution\u770b\u8dcc\u591a\u4e8e\u770b\u6da8 \u2014 \u8f7b\u5ea6\u8c28\u614e",
"left": "",
"right": "",
"tip": "Put/call volume ratio on S&P index options, computed from CBOE's chain: bearish bets \u00f7 bullish bets traded today. Above ~1.3 = heavy hedging; below ~0.8 = complacency. Today: 1.14 (as of 2026-07-20). A young series \u2014 labels are based on standard thresholds until enough history accrues.\u6807\u666e\u6307\u6570\u671f\u6743\u7684\u770b\u8dcc/\u770b\u6da8\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\u6bd4\uff0c\u7531 CBOE \u671f\u6743\u94fe\u8ba1\u7b97\uff1a\u4eca\u65e5\u770b\u7a7a\u62bc\u6ce8 \u00f7 \u770b\u591a\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ea61.3 = \u5927\u91cf\u5bf9\u51b2\uff1b\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ea60.8 = \u81ea\u6ee1\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a1.14\uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-20\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8f83\u65b0\u7684\u5e8f\u5217 \u2014 \u5728\u79ef\u7d2f\u8db3\u591f\u5386\u53f2\u524d\uff0c\u6807\u7b7e\u57fa\u4e8e\u6807\u51c6\u9608\u503c\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Market-maker effect\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6548\u5e94",
"pct": null,
"label": "amplifying swings\u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8",
"verdict": "market-makers' hedging adds fuel to moves \u2014 expect bigger swings both ways\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u5bf9\u51b2\u4e3a\u6ce2\u52a8\u6dfb\u67f4 \u2014 \u9884\u671f\u53cc\u5411\u6ce2\u52a8\u66f4\u5927",
"left": "",
"right": "",
"tip": "Estimated dealer gamma (GEX) from the S&P options chain, standard assumption (dealers long calls/short puts). Positive = their hedging dampens market moves; negative = it amplifies them. Today: -26bn per 1% move (as of 2026-07-20). An estimate, not ground truth.\u7531\u6807\u666e\u671f\u6743\u94fe\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u505a\u5e02\u5546 gamma\uff08GEX\uff09\uff0c\u91c7\u7528\u6807\u51c6\u5047\u8bbe\uff08\u505a\u5e02\u5546\u6301\u6709\u591a\u5934\u770b\u6da8/\u7a7a\u5934\u770b\u8dcc\uff09\u3002\u6b63\u503c = \u5176\u5bf9\u51b2\u6291\u5236\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\uff1b\u8d1f\u503c = \u653e\u5927\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a\u6bcf1%\u6ce2\u52a8 -26\u5341\u4ebf \uff08\u622a\u81f3 2026-07-20\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u3002"
},
{
"name": "Fear gauge\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6807",
"pct": 59.145757517716916,
"label": "normal\u6b63\u5e38",
"verdict": "nothing notable\u65e0\u663e\u8457",
"left": "calm\u5e73\u9759",
"right": "panic\u6050\u614c",
"tip": "VIX (30-day expected volatility) \u00f7 VIX3M (3-month). Below ~0.9 = calm; near/above 1.0 = the market fears the immediate future more than the distant one \u2014 the classic stress signature. Today: 0.914, 59th percentile since 2006.VIX\uff0830\u5929\u9884\u671f\u6ce2\u52a8\u7387\uff09\u00f7 VIX3M\uff083\u4e2a\u6708\uff09\u3002\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ea60.9 = \u5e73\u9759\uff1b\u63a5\u8fd1/\u9ad8\u4e8e1.0 = \u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u8d85\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fdc\u671f \u2014 \u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u538b\u529b\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\uff1a0.914\uff0c2006\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7b2c 59 \u767e\u5206\u4f4d\u3002"
}
],
"market_state_color": "yellow",
"stances": {
"hero": {
"en": "Mixed signals \u2014 hold what works, add slowly.",
"zh": "\u4fe1\u53f7\u6df7\u6742 \u2014 \u6301\u6709\u6709\u6548\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u8c28\u614e\u52a0\u4ed3\u3002"
},
"liquidity": {
"en": "The money tide is rising \u2014 historically the most reliable tailwind.",
"zh": "\u8d44\u91d1\u6f6e\u4e0a\u6da8 \u2014 \u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u987a\u98ce\u3002"
},
"credit": {
"en": "Credit calm, participation healthy \u2014 no smoke.",
"zh": "\u4fe1\u7528\u5e73\u7a33\uff0c\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\u5065\u5eb7 \u2014 \u65e0\u8b66\u8baf\u3002"
}
},
"fx": {
"asof": "2026-07-20",
"dollar_desk": {
"lean": "mixed backdrop",
"lean_zh": "\u5206\u5316\u80cc\u666f",
"lean_net": 1,
"lean_n": 3,
"real_rate_regime": "Restrictive real yields",
"real_rate_z": 0.94,
"fed_path_bps": 40.0,
"fed_path_lean": "steady",
"usd_pos_pctile": 75.0,
"usd_pos_state": "neutral",
"usd_reer_gap_pct": 0.3,
"usd_valuation": "fair",
"trend": "up",
"trend_n_up": 4,
"liquidity_dir": "soft",
"smile_confidence": "medium",
"triple_red": false,
"usd_dir": "strengthening"
},
"state_changes": {
"smile_regime": {
"current": "US growth premium",
"prev": "Global reflation",
"changed_on": "2026-04-20",
"days_in_state": 92
},
"lean": {
"current": "mixed backdrop",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"risk": {
"current": "risk-on",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"fed_path_lean": {
"current": "steady",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"liquidity_dir": {
"current": "soft",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"trend": {
"current": "up",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"triple_red": {
"current": false,
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"cnh_basis_state": {
"current": "neutral",
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
},
"regime_radar_dominant": {
"current": null,
"prev": null,
"changed_on": null,
"days_in_state": null
}
},
"regime_radar": {
"dominant": null,
"active": [],
"intensity": {
"carry_unwind": 11.8,
"dollar_wrecking_ball": 1.0,
"em_crisis_capital_flight": 27.8,
"haven_flight_risk_off": 0.2,
"reflation_risk_on": 0.3,
"intervention_risk": 0.0
}
},
"strength": {
"default": "1m",
"top": {
"ccy": "GBP",
"ccy_zh": "\u82f1\u9551",
"em": false,
"strength": 0.604,
"vs_usd_pct": 1.9
},
"bottom": {
"ccy": "JPY",
"ccy_zh": "\u65e5\u5143",
"em": false,
"strength": -0.516,
"vs_usd_pct": -0.5
}
}
}
}