Notes from the desk来自工作台的笔记
Short, honest essays on the math traders actually live with — losing streaks, why win rate is overrated, the arithmetic of drawdown. No hot takes, just the numbers worked out.关于交易者真正要面对的数学的短篇诚实随笔——连败、为何胜率被高估、回撤的算术。没有噱头，只把数字算清。
Subscribe via RSS通过 RSS 订阅 ↗Conduent Settlement Has Gross Fund, Open Net Cost
Mastermind Research examines Conduent's proposed $80 million settlement fund, conditional funding timetable, claimant limits, and unproven net cost.
Read阅读 → 2026-10-19USDA NASS harvest data show uneven October pace
Our reading of USDA NASS crop-progress estimates: national harvest moved forward, while Iowa remained below its recent averages.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20Compound Growth for Traders
Return sequencing and drawdowns dominate long-run CAGR. Why the arithmetic mean of annual returns overstates actual wealth growth and what to use instead.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20Congress Trades Are Not Real-Time Signals
The STOCK Act gives members of Congress 45 days to disclose trades. By the time you see a filing, the position is weeks old and the context has shifted.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20How to Keep a Trading Journal
Most trading journals die from friction or vanity metrics. The exact fields that let you compute expectancy, R multiples, and mistake cost per setup.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20The Math of Losing Streaks
Losing streaks are a mathematical certainty at any realistic win rate. The only question is whether your position sizing lets you survive them.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20Why a 50% Loss Needs a 100% Gain
Losses and gains are not symmetric. A 50% drawdown requires a 100% return to recover — the math that makes drawdown depth the professional obsession.
Read阅读 → 2026-07-20Win Rate Is Overrated
A 35% win rate can be more profitable than a 70% win rate. Expectancy — not how often you win — determines whether a system makes money.
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