Drawdown Recovery Calculator
Find the gain needed to recover from a drawdown and estimate years to break even at a given return. Enter a percentage or peak and current values.
Enter a drawdown percentage, or your peak and current values — the calculator derives the loss and tells you how much you need to recover. Add an expected annual return to estimate recovery time.填入回撤百分比，或填入峰值与当前值——计算器将推算亏损并告知你需要多少才能回本。添加预期年化收益率可估算恢复时间。
Enter a drawdown to see the required recovery gain.填入回撤幅度即可查看所需涨幅。
- Drawdown used使用的回撤值
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- Years to recover恢复年数
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- Dollar loss亏损金额
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Losses are asymmetric: a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain to recover. The math is straightforward — if you lose half your money, you need to double what remains. This asymmetry is one of the most important and most overlooked facts in risk management.亏损是不对称的：50%的回撤需要100%的涨幅才能回本。数学很直接——如果你损失了一半的钱，你需要将剩余的资金翻倍。这种不对称性是风险管理中最重要、也最常被忽视的事实之一。
01The formula公式
where d = drawdown %其中 d = 回撤百分比
Years to recover = ln(100 ÷ (100 − d)) ÷ ln(1 + g ÷ 100) (requires annual return g)恢复年数 = ln(100 ÷ (100 − d)) ÷ ln(1 + g ÷ 100) （需填年化收益率g）
When you supply peak and current values, the drawdown is calculated as (peak − current) ÷ peak × 100 and that derived figure is used for all subsequent calculations.当你填入峰值和当前值时，回撤计算为 (峰值 − 当前) ÷ 峰值 × 100，并用该数值进行后续计算。
02A worked example一个算例
A portfolio falls 50% from its peak. The assumed recovery rate is 10% per year.一个投资组合从峰值回撤 50%。假设年化收益率为 10%。
- Required gain = 50 ÷ (100 − 50) × 100 = 100%所需涨幅 = 50 ÷ (100 − 50) × 100 = 100%
- Years to recover = ln(100 ÷ 50) ÷ ln(1.10) ≈ 7.27 years恢复年数 = ln(100 ÷ 50) ÷ ln(1.10) ≈ 7.27年
- A 20% drawdown requires only 25% to recover — far less damaging, and the contrast illustrates why avoiding large drawdowns matters more than chasing extra returns.20%的回撤只需 25% 才能回本——损害小得多。这一对比说明了为什么避免大回撤比追逐额外回报更重要。
03Reference table参考表格
The asymmetry accelerates steeply at deeper drawdowns. A 90% loss requires a 900% recovery — nine times your remaining capital just to break even.不对称性在更深的回撤处急剧加速。90%的亏损需要900%的涨幅才能回本——仅仅为了回到原点，你就需要将剩余资金增加至原来的9倍。
| Drawdown回撤 | Required gain to recover回本所需涨幅 |
|---|---|
| 5% | 5.3% |
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 15% | 17.6% |
| 20% | 25.0% |
| 25% | 33.3% |
| 30% | 42.9% |
| 40% | 66.7% |
| 50% | 100.0% |
| 60% | 150.0% |
| 70% | 233.3% |
| 80% | 400.0% |
| 90% | 900.0% |
04The common trap常见陷阱
"I'm down 30%, I just need to make back 30%." No — a 30% loss requires a 42.9% gain. A 50% loss requires 100%. The further you fall, the steeper the climb out. This is why position sizing and stop-losses exist: preventing a large drawdown is worth far more than chasing an equivalent gain."我跌了30%，只需要再涨30%即可。"不对——30%的亏损需要42.9%的涨幅。50%的亏损需要100%。跌得越深，爬出来越陡峭。这就是为什么仓位管理和止损存在：防止大回撤远比追逐等量涨幅有价值。
05Where this breaks它的局限
- Recovery rate is assumed constant. Real returns are volatile. A 10% annual return assumption is just that — an assumption. Sequence of returns matters: a bad year in the early recovery extends the timeline.假设恢复速率固定。实际回报率是波动的。10%的年化回报率假设仅仅是假设。回报顺序很重要：恢复初期的一个坏年份会延长恢复时间线。
- The formula uses the peak-to-trough definition. "Drawdown" is sometimes quoted as the loss from the high-water mark. Make sure the percentage you enter matches this definition.公式使用峰谷定义。"回撤"有时被引用为从高水位线开始的亏损。请确保你输入的百分比符合这一定义。
- Taxes and fees reduce the effective recovery rate. If capital gains are taxed and trading incurs fees, the net annual return available for recovery is lower than the gross figure.税收和费用降低有效恢复速率。若资本利得需要纳税，且交易产生费用，则可用于恢复的净年化收益率低于毛值。
Cutting a loss in half doesn't cut the recovery time in half — it eliminates most of it. Protecting capital is asymmetrically more valuable than finding returns.将亏损减半不能将恢复时间减半——而是几乎消除了大部分。保护本金在不对称上远比寻找回报更有价值。
The companion piece for this topic is Why a 50% loss needs a 100% gain. For long-run compounding context, see Compound growth for traders. Model recovery scenarios with the 本主题的配套阅读是 为什么亏损50%需要盈利100%才能回本。长期复利背景请参见 交易者的复利增长。用 compounding calculator复利计算器 to model recovery scenarios.建模恢复情景。