Risk-Reward Calculator
Find your risk-to-reward ratio, breakeven win rate, and trade expectancy from entry, stop, and target prices. Add your win rate to see the full picture.
Enter your entry, stop, and target. Add your win rate to see whether the math works in your favour over time.填入入场价、止损价和目标价。加入胜率可查看长期数学期望是否对你有利。
Fill in entry, stop, and target to see your risk-to-reward ratio.填入入场价、止损价和目标价以查看盈亏比。
- Breakeven win rate保本胜率
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- Reward per share每股收益
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- Risk per share每股风险
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- Expectancy (R)期望值（R）
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The risk-to-reward ratio is the distance from your entry to your target, divided by the distance from your entry to your stop. A 3:1 ratio means you stand to make three dollars for every dollar you risk — and that single number tells you how often you need to be right just to break even.盈亏比是入场价到目标价的距离，除以入场价到止损价的距离。3:1意味着你每冒1美元风险，预期获得3美元——这个数字直接告诉你需要多高的胜率才能保本。
01The formula公式
Breakeven win rate = 100 ÷ (1 + R:R)保本胜率 = 100 ÷ (1 + R:R)
Expectancy (R) = win rate × R:R − (1 − win rate) (requires win rate)期望值（R） = 胜率 × R:R − (1 − 胜率) （需填胜率）
The breakeven win rate is the floor: if you win less often than that, this trade shape loses money on average even when R:R looks attractive. Expectancy in R combines both sides — a positive number means the setup has a mathematical edge per trade.保本胜率是下限：若胜率低于此值，即便盈亏比看起来不错，这类交易长期也会亏损。R期望值将两者合并——正值意味着该设置每笔交易具有数学优势。
02A worked example一个算例
You buy at $100, place your stop at $95, and set a target at $115. Your win rate from similar setups is 40%.你在 $100 买入，止损设在 $95，目标设在 $115。历史同类设置的胜率为 40%。
- Risk per share = | 100 − 95 | = $5每股风险 = | 100 − 95 | = $5
- Reward per share = | 115 − 100 | = $15每股收益 = | 115 − 100 | = $15
- R:R = 15 ÷ 5 = 3.0R:R = 15 ÷ 5 = 3.0
- Breakeven win rate = 100 ÷ (1 + 3) = 25%保本胜率 = 100 ÷ (1 + 3) = 25%
- Expectancy = 0.40 × 3 − 0.60 = +0.60 R per trade期望值 = 0.40 × 3 − 0.60 = +0.60 R 每笔
You're risking $1 to make $3. You'd need to win more than 25% of the time for this trade shape to break even — and at 40%, you clear that bar with room to spare.你以1美元的风险换3美元的回报。只需胜率超过25%即可保本——而40%的胜率轻松超过这条线。
03The common trap常见陷阱
A 5:1 ratio looks spectacular. But if you only win 10% of the time, expectancy is still negative: 0.10 × 5 − 0.90 = −0.40 R. The ratio and the win rate are a pair — you can't optimise one while ignoring the other. Moving a stop tighter to improve the ratio also reduces the win rate; there's no free lunch.5:1的比率看起来非常诱人。但若胜率只有10%，期望值仍为负：0.10 × 5 − 0.90 = −0.40 R。比率与胜率是一对——不能只优化其中一个。将止损收紧以改善比率，同时也会降低胜率；没有免费的午餐。
04Where this breaks它的局限
- Win rate is estimated, not known. Unless you have a meaningful sample of identical setups, any expectancy calculation is a hypothesis, not a projection.胜率是估计值，不是已知量。除非你拥有大量相同设置的样本，否则任何期望值计算都只是假设，而非预测。
- Targets and stops are not always hit cleanly. Slippage, gaps, and partial fills mean the realized R:R often differs from the planned ratio. Plan around a range, not a single number.目标价和止损价并非总能干净成交。滑点、跳空和部分成交意味着实际R:R往往与计划值有差距。以区间而非单一数字来规划。
- R:R varies by time frame. A 3:1 ratio on a five-minute chart and a daily chart are very different problems — holding period, news risk, and mean reversion all change the picture.R:R因时间周期而异。5分钟图和日线图上的3:1代表截然不同的交易——持仓时间、消息风险和均值回归均会改变情况。
R:R tells you the shape of one trade. Win rate tells you how often that shape pays off. You need both numbers to know if a setup has an edge.R:R描述的是单笔交易的形态。胜率告诉你这种形态多频繁能带来回报。你需要两个数字才能判断一个设置是否具有优势。
Understand the math behind win rates and losing streaks in Win rate is overrated, or learn how to size each trade correctly with the 在 胜率被高估了 中了解胜率与亏损连续的数学，或通过 position size calculator仓位计算器. For a deeper look at expectancy, see the lesson on risk-reward and expectancy.正确计算每笔交易的仓位。深入了解期望值，参见 盈亏比与期望值。