AEJ Week Ahead China PMI, Korea IP, and GDP for Hong Kong and Taiwan

Economics Research 24 July 2026 | 7:21PM SGT

AEJ Week Ahead: China PMI, Korea IP, and GDP for Hong Kong and Taiwan

Note: The original version of this report has been updated to include new content. Danny Suwanapruti | Scheduled key data releases for the coming week in Asia ex-Japan include China’s Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

PMI readings, real GDP data for Hong Kong and Taiwan, and South Korea’s industrial production. Below we summarize our forecasts and expectations for these releases.

n China July PMIs (July 31, August 3 and 5): We expect the NBS manufacturing PMI to be 49.9 in July, vs 50.3 in June. Although the seasonally adjusted Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) inched up in July, high-frequency indicators—such as steel production—softened sequentially during the month. We expect the RatingDog manufacturing PMI to decrease to 50.5 from 51.7 in June. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI tends to have a higher sensitivity to export activity, and high frequency indicators suggest that the export momentum weakened in July vs. June, partly due to disruptions from Typhoon Bavi. We expect the NBS non-manufacturing PMI to decline to 49.6 from 50.2 in June. Both the services and construction PMIs are likely to decline due to adverse weather conditions— summer heatwaves and heavy rainfall—which disrupted outdoor activities. We also notice that over the past nine years, the NBS non-manufacturing PMI always declined in July vs June, pointing to some residual seasonality in the data. Finally, we expect the RatingDog services PMI to inch down to 53.9 from 54.1 in June.

n Hong Kong Q2 real GDP (Jul 31): We forecast Hong Kong Q2 real GDP to grow 4.7% yoy (vs. 5.9% yoy in Q1). This implies a 1.2% qoq annualized decline in Q2 (vs. +12.2% qoq annualized in Q1). On related activity data, the composite PMI fell to an average of 50.3 in Q2 from 51.7 in Q1. Retail sales volume also moderated from 9.8% yoy in Q1 to 5.8% yoy in April and May. The large inventory accumulation observed in Q4 and Q1 may reverse somewhat in Q2. Although goods import growth continued to outpace export growth in April and May, goods trade deficit in Q2 could narrow. Services trade surplus is likely to fall in Q2, as inbound tourism fell to 76% of 2018 levels on average in Q1 (vs. 88% on average in Q2), leaving net exports still a drag on GDP growth.

n Korea June IP (Jul 31): We forecast Korea’s IP to rebound to 3.2% mom sa in June, rebounding sharply after two months of contraction, as indicated by strong

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to

workday adjusted exports and auto production during the month. Given that the June IP report follows the Q2 GDP release, focus would be on details of the investment and consumption indicators and changes to monthly tends.

n Taiwan Q2 Real GDP (Jul 31): We expect Taiwan’s real GDP to rise 0.7% qoq sa in Q2, a robust growth albeit moderating from sharp increases of 4-5% growth (non-annualized) each in Q1 2026 and Q4 2025. We expect robust domestic demand growth led by sustained strength in private consumption after growing at average 2% pace in prior two quarters, as indicated by acceleration in retail sales through June. Gross investment is expected to rise at a moderated pace after accelerating sharply to 6.0% the prior quarter, on continued strong machinery and equipment investments in Q2. Notwithstanding a moderation in Q2, we forecast exports of goods and services to extend ongoing gains since Q2 2023. However, contribution from net exports could turn negative for the first time since Q4 2024 on stronger increases in imports relative to exports. In year-on-year terms, we expect headline real GDP growth to moderate to 11.8% (vs. Bloomberg consensus not available at the time of writing) in Q2, down from 14.5% in Q1.

n Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meeting (July 27): We expect the MAS to keep the SGD NEER policy settings (slope, level and width) unchanged at its July monetary policy meeting while maintaining a mildly hawkish tone. Although core inflation has remained muted so…