💱 Forex Vector

How the dollar is moving and what it's pushing on — context, not trade calls. 美元走势及其连锁影响 — 仅供参考，非交易建议。

FOREX · Sep 15, 2026FOREX · Sep 15, 2026
Dollar soft 美元偏弱
Get ready 做好准备

A soft dollar is leaning on US stocks and EM stocks. 美元偏软，正压制美股与新兴市场股票。

Broad USD广义美元118.07
DXY99.47
63d move63日走势-2.5%
Risk mood风险情绪risk-on偏好风险
US booming美国强势
Calm growth平静增长
World stressed全球避险
Why the dollar is here: 美元处于此位置的原因： Calm growth平静增长
Broad USD广义美元 Risk-off避险
Real rates实际利率
High real rates实际利率偏高
Restrictive real yields — 10y real yield: 2.55% · Fed path 73bp priced to 12m · Futures-market positioning neutral
实际利率偏紧 — 10年实际收益率：2.55% · 美联储路径12个月定价73bp · 期货市场持仓中性
Trend趋势
Falling on all horizons全线下行
—/4 trend horizons up. Broad-dollar trailing momentum at multiple lookbacks.
—/4个趋势周期上行。广义美元多周期追踪动量。
Value估值
Fair合理
REER gap +0.9% vs 5y mean. Rich = dollar stretched above fair value, historically mean-reverts slowly.
REER偏离+0.9%（相对5年均值）。偏贵=美元高于公允价值，历史上缓慢回归。
Liquidity流动性
Tightening净收紧
Net Fed liquidity falling — tends to support the dollar. Net change: -59B / 63d.
美联储净流动性下降 — 往往支撑美元。净变化：-59B / 63天。

Dollar ripple effects美元连锁影响

Moves together day to day — context, not a forecast.日内联动 — 背景参考，非预测。

Asset资产 If USD rises若美元上涨 Strength联动强度
Gold黄金 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.65 (252 days: -0.51) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.65 · 252日：-0.51 · 稳定性：稳定
Copper铜 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.59 (252 days: -0.48) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.59 · 252日：-0.48 · 稳定性：稳定
Bitcoin比特币 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.43 (252 days: -0.22) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.43 · 252日：-0.22 · 稳定性：稳定
US stocks美股 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.30 (252 days: -0.38) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.30 · 252日：-0.38 · 稳定性：稳定
EM stocks新兴市场股票 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.26 (252 days: -0.48) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.26 · 252日：-0.48 · 稳定性：稳定
Oil原油 Giving it a lift提振中
Moves together over 63 days: +0.15 (252 days: +0.39) · link: steady
63日相关：+0.15 · 252日：+0.39 · 稳定性：稳定
US bonds (10y)美债(10年) Not linked now暂无联动
Moves together over 63 days: -0.07 (252 days: -0.26) · link: decoupled
63日相关：-0.07 · 252日：-0.26 · 稳定性：脱钩
▸ Currencies now — relative strength当前货币强弱
JPY
+3.3%
CNH
+0.8%
BRL
+0.5%
USD
+0.0%
EUR
-0.2%
GBP
-0.2%
AUD
-0.4%
CHF
-0.6%
CAD
-0.7%
MXN
-1.1%
Trailing strength vs average currency. Green does not mean buy.相对平均货币的近端强弱。绿色不代表买入。

Stress watch风险预警

Nothing flashing — six stress patterns quiet.暂无预警 — 六种压力情景均平静。

Carry-trade unwind套息平仓
Carry-trade unwind: intensity 0%. In 5771 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
套息平仓：强度0%。在5771个类似历史日中，约1/10在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Dollar squeeze美元挤压
Dollar squeeze: intensity 4%. In 4108 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
美元挤压：强度4%。在4108个类似历史日中，约1/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
EM outflows新兴市场资金外流
EM outflows: intensity 32%. In 633 similar past days, ≈3 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
新兴市场资金外流：强度32%。在633个类似历史日中，约3/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。
Flight to safety避险出逃
Flight to safety: intensity 0%. In 7696 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 15d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
避险出逃：强度0%。在7696个类似历史日中，约1/10在15天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Risk-on rally风险偏好回升
Risk-on rally: intensity 54%. Insufficient past cases to estimate frequency.
风险偏好回升：强度54%。历史案例不足，无法估计频率。
Intervention watch干预关注
Intervention watch: intensity 11%. In 1870 similar past days, fewer than 1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
干预关注：强度11%。在1870个类似历史日中，不到一成在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。

The pairs货币对

Leans are context, not trade calls.倾向仅供参考，非交易建议。
The majors主要货币对 · 2
EUR/USD欧元/美元
The world's most traded pair全球交易量最大货币对
1.1555
-0.2% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -17 of ±100, confidence 72% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-17（±100范围），信心72% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: -1.4%/yr持有有息：-1.4%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.38% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.33.
利差优势（套息）：-1.38%年化。套息/波动：-0.33。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +1.8% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+1.8%。
 Follow the trend顺势
Multi-timeframe grade: TREND-FOLLOW — Aligned uptrend across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：顺势 — 各周期一致向上。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.10.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: -0.10.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.05.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.05。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.05.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.05。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.00.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
GBP/USD英镑/美元
UK rates and fiscal mood英国利率与财政情绪
1.3505
-0.2% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -4 of ±100, confidence 64% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-4（±100范围），信心64% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: +0.1%/yr持有有息：+0.1%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): +0.10% annualised. Carry/vol: 0.02.
利差优势（套息）：+0.10%年化。套息/波动：0.02。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +3.4% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+3.4%。
 Follow the trend顺势
Multi-timeframe grade: TREND-FOLLOW — Aligned uptrend across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：顺势 — 各周期一致向上。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.04.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.04.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
−
Interest-rate edge: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
利差优势：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
Chart structure形态结构
−
Chart structure: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
形态结构：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Commodity currencies商品货币 · 2
AUD/USD澳元/美元
The China-growth barometer中国增长晴雨表
0.7142
-0.4% / 1mo
Leaning lower倾向走低
Model lean -26 of ±100, confidence 74% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-26（±100范围），信心74% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: +0.8%/yr持有有息：+0.8%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): +0.83% annualised. Carry/vol: 0.15.
利差优势（套息）：+0.83%年化。套息/波动：0.15。
 Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +6.4% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+6.4%。
 Buy the dip逢低买入
Multi-timeframe grade: BUY-THE-DIP — Healthy pullback within an uptrend. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：逢低买入 — 上升趋势内的健康回调。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.18.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.18。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.12.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.12。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.07.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.06.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.06。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
●
Interest-rate edge: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
利差优势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
USD/CAD美元/加元
The oil currency石油货币
1.3894
+0.7% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 7 of ±100, confidence 58% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向7（±100范围），信心58% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: -1.4%/yr持有有息：-1.4%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.36% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.35.
利差优势（套息）：-1.36%年化。套息/波动：-0.35。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -4.6% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-4.6%。
 Buy the dip逢低买入
Multi-timeframe grade: BUY-THE-DIP — Healthy pullback within an uptrend. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：逢低买入 — 上升趋势内的健康回调。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.11.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.11。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: +0.10.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.10。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.10.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.05.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: +0.01.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
Safe havens避险货币 · 2
USD/JPY美元/日元
The funding currency — moves fast in panics融资货币 — 恐慌时波动剧烈
154.207
-3.2% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -13 of ±100, confidence 66% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-13（±100范围），信心66% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: -2.8%/yr持有有息：-2.8%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -2.79% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.31.
利差优势（套息）：-2.79%年化。套息/波动：-0.31。
 Cheap vs history相对历史偏低
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -12.9% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-12.9%。
 WAIT等待
Multi-timeframe grade: WAIT — Mixed / transitional. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：等待 — 混合 / 过渡。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: -0.09.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.09。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.08.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.05.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.04.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: +0.03.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: +0.01.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
⚑ In the MoF intervention watch zone (~150–162); conviction capped.处于财务省干预观察区（约150–162）；信心受限。
USD/CHF美元/瑞郎
The quiet haven低调避险
0.8169
+0.6% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 15 of ±100, confidence 65% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向15（±100范围），信心65% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Paid to hold: -3.7%/yr持有有息：-3.7%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -3.67% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.55.
利差优势（套息）：-3.67%年化。套息/波动：-0.55。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +0.4% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+0.4%。
 Avoid回避
Multi-timeframe grade: AVOID — Downtrend confirmed across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：回避 — 各周期确认下行。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.15.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.15。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: +0.09.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.09。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.08.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.07.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.07.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.07。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
−
Sudden shocks: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
突发冲击：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
⚑ SNB has historically capped CHF (2015 floor gapped ~20%).瑞士央行历史上设过下限（2015年跳空约20%）。
Emerging markets新兴市场 · 3
USD/MXN美元/墨西哥比索
High-carry EM bellwether高息新兴市场风向标
17.1333
+1.1% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -18 of ±100, confidence 61% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-18（±100范围），信心61% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +9.7% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+9.7%。
 Buy the dip逢低买入
Multi-timeframe grade: BUY-THE-DIP — Healthy pullback within an uptrend. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：逢低买入 — 上升趋势内的健康回调。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: -0.12.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.12。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.10.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: +0.08.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.08。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: -0.05.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
USD/BRL美元/巴西雷亚尔
Commodity-linked carry商品挂钩套息
5.1112
-0.5% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 11 of ±100, confidence 49% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向11（±100范围），信心49% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +6.3% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+6.3%。
 WAIT等待
Multi-timeframe grade: WAIT — Mixed / transitional. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：等待 — 混合 / 过渡。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: +0.17.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.17。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.15.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.15。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.07.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.00.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
USD/CNH美元/离岸人民币
Beijing-managed — watched for stress北京管理 — 关注压力信号
6.6655
-0.8% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 15 of ±100, confidence 48% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向15（±100范围），信心48% — 基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
 less tested检验不足
Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -2.8% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-2.8%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Offshore–onshore CNH basis离岸–在岸人民币基差: -68 bps — broadly aligned with the onshore fix.与在岸中间价大体一致。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: +0.11.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.11。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.11.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.11。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.04.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Cheap or rich估值高低
−
Cheap or rich: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
估值高低：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
⚑ Managed regime — the official fix sets the level; read as risk-context only.受管理汇率 — 由中间价决定水平；仅作风险背景解读。

Do these styles work?这些策略有效吗

G10 carry basketG10套息篮子
Thin reward for real crash risk.回报有限，崩盘风险真实。
Now: long当前：做多 AUD GBP CAD · short做空 EUR JPY CHF
?
Yearly gain: +0.7% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.12 · Worst fall: -38% | Pre-2008: +0.7% / 0.15 | Post-2008: +0.8% / 0.12 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.7% · 单位波动收益：0.12 · 最大回撤：-38% | 2008前：+0.7% / 0.15 | 2008后：+0.8% / 0.12 — 仅基于历史数据。
Risk-off haven basket避险货币篮子
Costs a little most years; pays in a storm.平时小亏；风暴时获利。
Permanent: long havens, short risk currencies.长期：持有避险货币，做空风险货币。
?
Yearly gain: -2.1% · Gain per unit of swing: -0.14 · Worst fall: -50% | Pre-2008: -2.9% / -0.22 | Post-2008: -1.5% / -0.08 — past data only.
年化收益：-2.1% · 单位波动收益：-0.14 · 最大回撤：-50% | 2008前：-2.9% / -0.22 | 2008后：-1.5% / -0.08 — 仅基于历史数据。
Dollar trend overlay美元趋势叠加
A drawdown filter, not a money-maker.是回撤过滤器，不是盈利来源。
Currently long (trend up)当前做多（趋势向上）
?
Yearly gain: +0.5% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.12 · Worst fall: -33% | Pre-2008: +1.0% / 0.20 | Post-2008: -0.5% / -0.05 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.5% · 单位波动收益：0.12 · 最大回撤：-33% | 2008前：+1.0% / 0.20 | 2008后：-0.5% / -0.05 — 仅基于历史数据。
RECENT SHIFTS近期变化
Tue Sep 15
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern no longer active风险偏好回升情景已解除
Mon Sep 14
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 USD/CNH USD/CNH: Trend turned upUSD/CNH：趋势转强
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern now active风险偏好回升压力情景已激活
Sun Sep 13
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sat Sep 12
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Fri Sep 11
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned upUSD/BRL：趋势转强
Thu Sep 10
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Trend趋势 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD 12-month trend turned upUSD/CAD：CAD 12个月趋势转为上升
Wed Sep 09
Dollar link美元联动 Dollar Dollar link to US bonds (10y) changed: now not linked now美元与美债(10年)的联动改变：现为暂无联动
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Trend趋势 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Trend turned upUSD/JPY：趋势转强
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/JPY：形态转好
Tue Sep 08
Positioning持仓 EUR/USD EUR/USD Speculators very shortEUR/USD 投机者严重做空
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sun Sep 06
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Sep 05
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Sep 04
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Trend趋势 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Trend turned downUSD/CHF：趋势转弱
Trend趋势 USD/CNH USD/CNH: Trend turned upUSD/CNH：趋势转强
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Thu Sep 03
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP 12-month trend turned upGBP/USD：GBP 12个月趋势转为上升
Wed Sep 02
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned ElevatedUSD/CHF 风险转为升高
Chart shape形态 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Chart shape broke downUSD/CHF：形态转弱
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned downUSD/BRL：趋势转弱
Tue Sep 01
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 USD/BRL USD/BRL Speculators very longUSD/BRL 投机者严重做多
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → Calm growth美元格局 → 平静增长
Dollar Flipsmile_regime_flip Dollar Dollar smile flipped: US booming → Calm growth美元微笑翻转：美国强势 → 平静增长
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Carry-trade unwind pattern no longer active套息平仓情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
Mon Aug 31
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 USD/CNH USD/CNH: Chart shape broke downUSD/CNH：形态转弱
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Chart shape broke downUSD/CHF：形态转弱
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Carry-trade unwind pattern now active套息平仓压力情景已激活
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern now active新兴市场资金外流压力情景已激活
Sun Aug 30
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Aug 29
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Aug 28
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Thu Aug 27
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Wed Aug 26
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveEUR/USD：形态转好
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveGBP/USD：形态转好
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern no longer active风险偏好回升情景已解除
Tue Aug 25
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern now active风险偏好回升压力情景已激活
Mon Aug 24
Trend趋势 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Trend turned upEUR/USD：趋势转强
Sun Aug 23
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Aug 22
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Aug 21
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)AUD/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern no longer active风险偏好回升情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern now active风险偏好回升压力情景已激活
Thu Aug 20
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned CalmUSD/CHF 风险转为平静
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → Calm growth美元格局 → 平静增长
Dollar Flipsmile_regime_flip Dollar Dollar smile flipped: US booming → Calm growth美元微笑翻转：美国强势 → 平静增长
Wed Aug 19
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned ElevatedUSD/CHF 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)AUD/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Chart shape broke downUSD/BRL：形态转弱
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (-0.8%)美元今日异常大幅波动（-0.8%）
Tue Aug 18
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 USD/CHF USD/CHF Speculators very longUSD/CHF 投机者严重做多
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned downUSD/BRL：趋势转弱
Fri Aug 14
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Trend turned upUSD/CAD：趋势转强
Thu Aug 13
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Wed Aug 12
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Tue Aug 11
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Trend turned upAUD/USD：趋势转强
Trend趋势 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Trend turned downUSD/CHF：趋势转弱
Mon Aug 10
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/MXN：形态转好
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)AUD/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sat Aug 08
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Trend turned upAUD/USD：趋势转强
Fri Aug 07
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/JPY：形态转好
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Thu Aug 06
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Trend趋势 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Trend turned upUSD/JPY：趋势转强
Wed Aug 05
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Trend turned upGBP/USD：趋势转强
Chart shape形态 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveAUD/USD：形态转好
Chart shape形态 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/MXN：形态转好
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Tue Aug 04
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Positioning持仓 USD/BRL USD/BRL Speculators very longUSD/BRL 投机者严重做多
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Trend turned upGBP/USD：趋势转强
Mon Aug 03
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveGBP/USD：形态转好
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (+1.8%)美元今日异常大幅波动（+1.8%）
Chart shape形态 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveAUD/USD：形态转好
Sun Aug 02
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Aug 01
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Fri Jul 31
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Thu Jul 30
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (+1.1%)美元今日异常大幅波动（+1.1%）
Wed Jul 29
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/CAD：形态转好
Chart shape形态 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Chart shape turned constructiveUSD/BRL：形态转好
Tue Jul 28
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 GBP/USD GBP/USD Speculators very shortGBP/USD 投机者严重做空
Mon Jul 27
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Sun Jul 26
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP 12-month trend turned downGBP/USD：GBP 12个月趋势转为下降
Fri Jul 24
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Trend turned upAUD/USD：趋势转强
Trend趋势 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Trend turned upUSD/MXN：趋势转强
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Wed Jul 22
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Tue Jul 21
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Mon Jul 20
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP 12-month trend turned upGBP/USD：GBP 12个月趋势转为上升
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Chart shape turned constructiveGBP/USD：形态转好
Sun Jul 19
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Jul 17
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned upUSD/BRL：趋势转强
This page describes today's currency backdrop. It moves with markets and does not predict them; nothing here is a trade recommendation. Pair reads are measured on past data and shown for context. 本页描述今日货币背景。随市场变化，不预测市场走势；本页内容不构成任何交易建议。货币对读数基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
As of截至 Sep 15, 2026 · built构建于 2026-09-14 23:46 UTC · Data数据 1996-10-30..2026-09-15