CURRENCIES外汇市场

Forex

Understand the move. Know what would change your view.看清走势，明确什么变化会改变判断。

Snapshot快照 2026-10-29

THE DOLLAR BACKDROP美元背景

A current read needs fresh evidence.当前判断需要新的证据。

Dated observations are available below. The source has not supplied a qualified current dollar and risk read for this snapshot.下方保留有日期的观测。来源尚未为本快照提供合格的当前美元与风险判断。

Dollar read date美元判断日期2026-10-29
Risk mood风险情绪Unavailable不可用

Broad dollar广义美元

Daily history每日历史

2026-05-18 — 2026-10-29 · 126 observations次观测

Pairs in focus货币对概览

Observed quote moves and qualified model views, side by side.并列查看实际报价变化与合格的模型判断。

What changed发生了什么变化

Recorded evidence已记录证据
  • Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
    Event record事件记录
    Recorded time记录时间
    2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00
    Event ID事件编号
    forex:dollar:triple_red:2026-10-30T00:00:clear
  • EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
    Event record事件记录
    Recorded time记录时间
    2026-10-29T00:00:00
    Event ID事件编号
    forex:dollar:scenario:2026-10-29T00:00:inactive:em_crisis_capital_flight

Next catalysts接下来的催化因素

Event calendar unavailable事件日历不可用

This publication has no qualified future-event schedule. Event times and forecasts are withheld until the calendar source is available.本次发布未提供合格的未来事件日程。在日历来源可用前，不展示事件时间或预测。

Market context for research. Observed changes, model views and prepared conditions are distinct. No watch is activated by this page.供研究使用的市场背景。已观测变化、模型判断与准备的条件分别展示。本页不会启用任何关注。

Sources & freshness来源与时效

Dates describe the reported observations. A new page build does not refresh older market evidence.日期描述报告的观测。新构建页面不会让旧市场证据变新。

Snapshot date快照日期
2026-10-29
Dollar / risk date美元／风险日期
2026-10-29
Built at构建时间
2026-10-30T00:51:26.770660+00:00
Current read当前判断
Unavailable不可用
Vendor source clocks供应商来源时钟
Not supplied by this daily snapshot本每日快照未提供
Finalized 4H bars最终4小时报价柱
Not admitted for watch activation尚未获准用于启用关注

Live alerts are unavailable here. Tab drafts disappear on reload unless you explicitly save them to your account and receive confirmation. Saved conditions remain inactive.此处暂不支持实时提醒。标签页草稿会在刷新后消失，除非您明确保存到账户并获得确认。已保存条件仍未启用。

Source record and missing checks来源记录与缺失检查
Snapshot ID快照编号
c41171804978ca4300a0ae4672bf1f8712c450ca5c8b69cbb0fad91d36df1cd4
Qualification gaps资格缺口
current_read_asof_before_reference_date, asof_before_reference_date
Last confirmed historical read最近确认的历史判断
{"asof": "2026-10-29 00:00:00", "regime": "Risk-off haven bid"}

Prepare an exact condition准备精确条件

Choose the literal pair price and the completed-bar rule you want to review. Preparation does not save or activate it.选择要核对的实际货币对价格与收盘报价柱规则。准备不会保存或启用规则。

4-hour bars end at 00:00, 04:00, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00 and 20:00 UTC. Only confirmed completed bars can satisfy this rule.4小时K线在 UTC 00:00、04:00、08:00、12:00、16:00 与 20:00 收盘。仅已确认完成的K线可满足此规则。

Compare observations比较观测

Each pair retains its own date and quote convention. This comparison does not rank expected returns.各货币对保留自身日期与报价约定。此比较不对预期回报进行排名。
Full market study · dollar, strength, stress and pair evidence完整市场研究 · 美元、强弱、压力与货币对证据
💱 Forex Vector

How the dollar is moving and what it's pushing on — context, not trade calls. 美元走势及其连锁影响 — 仅供参考，非交易建议。

Current checks当前检查 · Source qualification retained保留来源资格状态

Daily observations remain visible. Automatic 4H confirmation requires finalized literal-price bars and source clocks.每日观测仍然可见。自动4小时确认需要最终报价柱和来源时钟。

FOREX · Oct 29, 2026FOREX · Oct 29, 2026
Dollar strong 美元偏强
Watch — don't chase 观望，别追

A firm dollar is leaning on US stocks and EM stocks. 美元走强，正压制美股与新兴市场股票。

Broad USD广义美元121.4
DXY101.85
63d move63日走势1.9%
Risk mood风险情绪risk-off避险
US booming美国强势
Calm growth平静增长
World stressed全球避险
Why the dollar is here: 美元处于此位置的原因： World stressed全球避险
Broad USD广义美元 Risk-off避险 Same dates, separate scales同一日期 · 独立刻度 · 2026-05-18 → 2026-10-29 · 126 observations次观测
Real rates实际利率
High real rates实际利率偏高
Restrictive real yields — 10y real yield: 2.64% · Fed path 63bp priced to 12m · Futures-market positioning neutral
实际利率偏紧 — 10年实际收益率：2.64% · 美联储路径12个月定价63bp · 期货市场持仓中性
Trend趋势
Rising on all horizons全线上行
4/4 trend horizons up. Broad-dollar trailing momentum at multiple lookbacks.
4/4个趋势周期上行。广义美元多周期追踪动量。
Value估值
Fair合理
REER gap +0.6% vs 5y mean. Rich = dollar stretched above fair value, historically mean-reverts slowly.
REER偏离+0.6%（相对5年均值）。偏贵=美元高于公允价值，历史上缓慢回归。
Liquidity流动性
Adding净投放
Net Fed liquidity falling — tends to support the dollar. Net change: +8B / 63d.
美联储净流动性下降 — 往往支撑美元。净变化：+8B / 63天。

Dollar ripple effects美元连锁影响

Moves together day to day — context, not a forecast.日内联动 — 背景参考，非预测。

Asset资产 If USD rises若美元上涨 Strength联动强度
Gold黄金 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.53 (252 days: -0.51) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.53 · 252日：-0.51 · 稳定性：稳定
EM stocks新兴市场股票 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.46 (252 days: -0.47) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.46 · 252日：-0.47 · 稳定性：稳定
US stocks美股 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.42 (252 days: -0.41) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.42 · 252日：-0.41 · 稳定性：稳定
Bitcoin比特币 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.33 (252 days: -0.21) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.33 · 252日：-0.21 · 稳定性：稳定
Copper铜 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.31 (252 days: -0.49) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.31 · 252日：-0.49 · 稳定性：稳定
US bonds (10y)美债(10年) Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.25 (252 days: -0.26) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.25 · 252日：-0.26 · 稳定性：稳定
Oil原油 Not linked now暂无联动
Moves together over 63 days: +0.10 (252 days: +0.38) · link: decoupled
63日相关：+0.10 · 252日：+0.38 · 稳定性：脱钩
▸ Currencies now — relative strength当前货币强弱
CAD
+1.9%
CHF
+1.5%
AUD
+1.0%
GBP
+0.9%
CNH
+0.6%
USD
+0.0%
JPY
-0.2%
EUR
-1.4%
MXN
-3.0%
BRL
-3.1%
Trailing strength vs average currency. Green does not mean buy.相对平均货币的近端强弱。绿色不代表买入。

Stress watch风险预警

Nothing flashing — six stress patterns quiet.暂无预警 — 六种压力情景均平静。

Carry-trade unwind套息平仓
Carry-trade unwind: intensity 28%. In 208 similar past days, ≈2 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
套息平仓：强度28%。在208个类似历史日中，约2/10在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Dollar squeeze美元挤压
Dollar squeeze: intensity 5%. In 3938 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
美元挤压：强度5%。在3938个类似历史日中，约1/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
EM outflows新兴市场资金外流
EM outflows: intensity 17%. In 1313 similar past days, ≈3 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
新兴市场资金外流：强度17%。在1313个类似历史日中，约3/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。
Flight to safety避险出逃
Flight to safety: intensity 32%. In 397 similar past days, ≈2 in 10 saw the adverse move within 15d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
避险出逃：强度32%。在397个类似历史日中，约2/10在15天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Risk-on rally风险偏好回升
Risk-on rally: intensity 4%. In 4619 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
风险偏好回升：强度4%。在4619个类似历史日中，约1/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Intervention watch干预关注
Intervention watch: intensity 0%. In 7571 similar past days, fewer than 1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
干预关注：强度0%。在7571个类似历史日中，不到一成在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。
Movement evidence货币变动证据Inspect the values, their windows and their calculation dates.查看数值、计算窗口与计算日期。

Compare the evidence, not just the headline. These are selected historical calculations—not a forecast or a live quote.不只看标题，还要核对证据。这些是所选历史计算结果，不是预测或实时报价。

Table index表格索引
Source freshness unknown来源新鲜度未知

A calculation date is not the time a vendor observed or released its inputs. Different measures may use different dates.计算日期并不等于供应商观测或发布输入数据的时间。各指标可能使用不同日期。

Vendor observation time供应商观测时间 · Unknown未知

Release and ingestion timestamps are not supplied. Normalized inputs may contain filled values.未提供发布时间与入库时间。标准化输入可能含填充值。

EURReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency fell versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is below its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币下跌（相对美元）。相对动量低于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.51% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.43% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
−1.24% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
−0.58 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+1.32 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
34.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.43% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

JPYReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency rose versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is above its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币上涨（相对美元）。相对动量高于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.11% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.20% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
−0.16% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
+0.29 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.04 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
12.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.20% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

GBPReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency fell versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is below its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币下跌（相对美元）。相对动量低于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.55% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.12% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
+0.87% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
−0.23 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.98 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
12.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.12% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

CHFReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency rose versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is above its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币上涨（相对美元）。相对动量高于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.63% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.05% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
+1.47% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
+0.13 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.84 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
23.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.57% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

AUDReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency fell versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is below its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币下跌（相对美元）。相对动量低于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
−0.04% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.02% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
+1.18% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
−0.17 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
−0.68 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
10.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.28% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

CADReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency rose versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is above its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币上涨（相对美元）。相对动量高于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.46% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.40% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
+1.79% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
+0.59 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.77 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
35.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.41% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

CNHReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency rose versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is above its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币上涨（相对美元）。相对动量高于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
+0.11% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.23% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
+0.72% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
+0.49 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.55 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
0.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
+0.23% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

MXNReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency fell versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is below its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币下跌（相对美元）。相对动量低于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
−0.93% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.98% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
−4.17% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
−0.71 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
+0.53 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
78.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−0.98% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

BRLReturns versus USD · standardized measures compare with their own baselines相对美元的涨跌 · 标准化指标与各自历史基准比较

How to read this combination如何理解这组读数
The currency fell versus USD over 5 observations. Relative momentum is below its prior baseline.5 个观测窗口内，货币下跌（相对美元）。相对动量低于自身历史基准。Both calculations end两项计算均截至 . Different measures, not a reversal signal or independent confirmation; source freshness remains unknown.两项指标含义不同，不是反转信号或独立确认；来源新鲜度仍未知。

Short-window move短窗口涨跌1 observations1 个观测
−0.64% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Medium-window move中窗口涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−6.77% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Long-window move长窗口涨跌20 observations20 个观测
−3.82% Positive = appreciation versus USD; negative = depreciation.正值表示相对美元升值；负值表示贬值。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative momentum相对动量5 observations5 个观测
−2.26 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Relative change in momentum相对动量变化1-observation change in 5-observation momentum5 个观测窗口动量的 1 步变化
−0.30 z Value is relative to its prior baseline, not price direction. A positive reading can coexist with a falling currency.数值是相对自身历史基准的偏离，不表示价格方向。读数为正时，货币仍可能在下跌。 Standardized, bounded at ±8 z · not a probability.标准化数值，限制为 ±8 z；非概率。 At table date与表格日期一致
Realized-volatility rank已实现波动率分位20 observations20 个观测
95.0 / 100 Percentile rank, not a probability. Not a price-direction signal.分位排名，非概率，也不是价格方向信号。 At table date与表格日期一致
Broad-dollar-adjusted move广义美元调整后涨跌5 observations5 个观测
−7.76% Index direction depends on the method evidence below, not a separate currency-price signal.指数方向需结合下方方法证据解读，并非独立的货币价格信号。 All 5 return observations used a fitted dollar adjustment. This does not establish causation.5 个收益观测均使用拟合的美元调整；这不证明因果关系。 Carried dollar input: 5 of 5 returns. Calculation dates are not proof of fresh source quotes.5 个收益中有 5 个沿用前值美元输入；计算日期不证明源报价新鲜。 At table date与表格日期一致

Normalized input indices标准化输入索引 — price价格: 2026-10-29; residual return残差收益: 2026-10-29. These also are not vendor observation times.这些日期同样不是供应商观测时间。

Windows follow the producer’s indexed observation grid, not calendar days or a guarantee of fresh quotes. Speed, acceleration and volatility can share inputs; they are not independent confirmations. A broad-dollar-adjusted return is not proof of economic cause.窗口沿用计算器的观测索引，并非日历天数，也不保证报价新鲜。速度、加速度与波动率可能共享输入，并非独立确认。广义美元调整后的收益也不能证明经济因果。

This inspector cannot activate a carry-unwind diagnosis or declare funding normal. Direct USD cross-currency basis is not supplied by this table.本面板不会激活套息平仓判断，也不会宣告融资正常。本表不提供直接美元跨币种基差。

Back to evidence header返回证据标题

The pairs货币对

Leans are context, not trade calls.倾向仅供参考，非交易建议。
The majors主要货币对 · 2
EUR/USD欧元/美元
The world's most traded pair全球交易量最大货币对
1.1187
-1.4% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score -23 of ±100; source confidence 74% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 -23（±100范围）；来源信心 74% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: -1.4%/yr持有有息：-1.4%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.38% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.32.
利差优势（套息）：-1.38%年化。套息/波动：-0.32。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +1.7% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+1.7%。
 Avoid回避
Multi-timeframe grade: AVOID — Downtrend confirmed across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：回避 — 各周期确认下行。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: -0.13.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.13。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.11.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.11。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.07.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.05.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.05。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
GBP/USD英镑/美元
UK rates and fiscal mood英国利率与财政情绪
1.338
+0.9% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score -1 of ±100; source confidence 51% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 -1（±100范围）；来源信心 51% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: -0.1%/yr持有有息：-0.1%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -0.15% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.03.
利差优势（套息）：-0.15%年化。套息/波动：-0.03。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +3.2% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+3.2%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.07.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.07。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.05.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: -0.03.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Long-rate gap长端利差
●
Long-rate gap: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
长端利差：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
−
Interest-rate edge: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
利差优势：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Commodity currencies商品货币 · 2
AUD/USD澳元/美元
The China-growth barometer中国增长晴雨表
0.7028
+1.0% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score -23 of ±100; source confidence 72% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 -23（±100范围）；来源信心 72% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: +0.6%/yr持有有息：+0.6%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): +0.63% annualised. Carry/vol: 0.11.
利差优势（套息）：+0.63%年化。套息/波动：0.11。
 Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +6.1% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+6.1%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.22.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.22。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.11.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.11。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
●
Interest-rate edge: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
利差优势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
●
Long-rate gap: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
长端利差：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Chart structure形态结构
−
Chart structure: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
形态结构：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
USD/CAD美元/加元
The oil currency石油货币
1.3986
-1.9% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score -17 of ±100; source confidence 67% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 -17（±100范围）；来源信心 67% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: -1.6%/yr持有有息：-1.6%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.55% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.41.
利差优势（套息）：-1.55%年化。套息/波动：-0.41。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -4.4% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-4.4%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.12.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.12。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: -0.11.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.11。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.10.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.08.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: -0.02.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
●
Long-rate gap: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
长端利差：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Safe havens避险货币 · 2
USD/JPY美元/日元
The funding currency — moves fast in panics融资货币 — 恐慌时波动剧烈
157.813
+0.2% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score 0 of ±100; source confidence 51% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 0（±100范围）；来源信心 51% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: -2.8%/yr持有有息：-2.8%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -2.84% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.36.
利差优势（套息）：-2.84%年化。套息/波动：-0.36。
 Cheap vs history相对历史偏低
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -12.1% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-12.1%。
 WAIT等待
Multi-timeframe grade: WAIT — Mixed / transitional. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：等待 — 混合 / 过渡。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.08.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: +0.04.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: +0.04.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
−
Long-rate gap: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
长端利差：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
Chart structure形态结构
−
Chart structure: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
形态结构：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
⚑ In the MoF intervention watch zone (~150–162); conviction capped.处于财务省干预观察区（约150–162）；信心受限。
USD/CHF美元/瑞郎
The quiet haven低调避险
0.8236
-1.4% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score 8 of ±100; source confidence 59% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 8（±100范围）；来源信心 59% 并非预测概率。
Paid to hold: -3.9%/yr持有有息：-3.9%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -3.92% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.62.
利差优势（套息）：-3.92%年化。套息/波动：-0.62。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +0.3% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+0.3%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.17.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.17。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.09.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.09。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: -0.05.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.04.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Long-rate gap长端利差
●
Long-rate gap: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
长端利差：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: -0.02.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
⚑ SNB has historically capped CHF (2015 floor gapped ~20%).瑞士央行历史上设过下限（2015年跳空约20%）。
Emerging markets新兴市场 · 3
USD/MXN美元/墨西哥比索
High-carry EM bellwether高息新兴市场风向标
18.8629
+3.0% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score 34 of ±100; source confidence 81% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 34（±100范围）；来源信心 81% 并非预测概率。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +8.9% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+8.9%。
 Avoid回避
Multi-timeframe grade: AVOID — Downtrend confirmed across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：回避 — 各周期确认下行。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: +0.12.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.12。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: +0.07.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.07.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Choppiness波动风险
−
Choppiness: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
波动风险：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
USD/BRL美元/巴西雷亚尔
Commodity-linked carry商品挂钩套息
5.3849
+3.1% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score -4 of ±100; source confidence 46% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 -4（±100范围）；来源信心 46% 并非预测概率。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +5.7% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+5.7%。
 Avoid回避
Multi-timeframe grade: AVOID — Downtrend confirmed across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：回避 — 各周期确认下行。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
○
Choppiness: against. Pull on the score: +0.08.
波动风险：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.08。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: -0.04.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
USD/CNH美元/离岸人民币
Beijing-managed — watched for stress北京管理 — 关注压力信号
6.633
-0.6% / 1mo1个月
Current lean unavailable当前倾向不可用
A current, qualified model lean and an unambiguous quote convention are required. Source score 15 of ±100; source confidence 41% is not a forecast probability.
需要有效的当前模型倾向与明确的报价约定。来源评分 15（±100范围）；来源信心 41% 并非预测概率。
 less tested检验不足
Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -2.5% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-2.5%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Offshore–onshore CNH basis离岸–在岸人民币基差: -79 bps — broadly aligned with the onshore fix.与在岸中间价大体一致。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.12.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.12。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: +0.11.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.11。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.09.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.09。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.08.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Cheap or rich估值高低
−
Cheap or rich: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
估值高低：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
⚑ Managed regime — the official fix sets the level; read as risk-context only.受管理汇率 — 由中间价决定水平；仅作风险背景解读。

Do these styles work?这些策略有效吗

G10 carry basketG10套息篮子
Thin reward for real crash risk.回报有限，崩盘风险真实。
Now: long当前：做多 AUD GBP EUR · short做空 CAD JPY CHF
?
Yearly gain: +0.7% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.12 · Worst fall: -38% | Pre-2008: +0.7% / 0.15 | Post-2008: +0.7% / 0.12 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.7% · 单位波动收益：0.12 · 最大回撤：-38% | 2008前：+0.7% / 0.15 | 2008后：+0.7% / 0.12 — 仅基于历史数据。
Risk-off haven basket避险货币篮子
Costs a little most years; pays in a storm.平时小亏；风暴时获利。
Permanent: long havens, short risk currencies.长期：持有避险货币，做空风险货币。
?
Yearly gain: -2.0% · Gain per unit of swing: -0.13 · Worst fall: -50% | Pre-2008: -2.9% / -0.22 | Post-2008: -1.4% / -0.07 — past data only.
年化收益：-2.0% · 单位波动收益：-0.13 · 最大回撤：-50% | 2008前：-2.9% / -0.22 | 2008后：-1.4% / -0.07 — 仅基于历史数据。
Dollar trend overlay美元趋势叠加
A drawdown filter, not a money-maker.是回撤过滤器，不是盈利来源。
Currently long — 12-month trend up当前做多 — 12个月趋势向上
?
Yearly gain: +0.5% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.12 · Worst fall: -33% | Pre-2008: +1.0% / 0.20 | Post-2008: -0.3% / -0.02 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.5% · 单位波动收益：0.12 · 最大回撤：-33% | 2008前：+1.0% / 0.20 | 2008后：-0.3% / -0.02 — 仅基于历史数据。
RECENT SHIFTS近期变化
Fri Oct 30
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Thu Oct 29
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
Wed Oct 28
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Tue Oct 27
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/JPY JPY: Trend turned upJPY：趋势转强Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD: Trend turned upAUD：趋势转强Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/MXN MXN 12-month trend turned downMXN 12个月趋势转为下降Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Fri Oct 23
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP: Trend turned upGBP：趋势转强Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP: Chart shape turned constructiveGBP：形态转好Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Thu Oct 22
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)AUD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Wed Oct 21
Dollar link美元联动 Dollar Dollar link to Oil changed: now not linked now美元与原油的联动改变：现为暂无联动
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern now active新兴市场资金外流压力情景已激活
Tue Oct 20
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Mon Oct 19
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sun Oct 18
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Oct 17
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Oct 16
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar squeeze pattern no longer active美元挤压情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern now active新兴市场资金外流压力情景已激活
Thu Oct 15
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
Wed Oct 14
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Mon Oct 12
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned CalmAUD/USD 风险转为平静
Chart shape形态 USD/BRL BRL: Chart shape turned constructiveBRL：形态转好Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sat Oct 10
Trend趋势 USD/BRL BRL: Trend turned upBRL：趋势转强Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Oct 09
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern now active新兴市场资金外流压力情景已激活
Wed Oct 07
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
Tue Oct 06
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 USD/MXN USD/MXN Speculators very shortUSD/MXN 投机者严重做空
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern now active新兴市场资金外流压力情景已激活
Mon Oct 05
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP 12-month trend turned upGBP 12个月趋势转为上升Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Chart shape形态 AUD/USD AUD: Chart shape broke downAUD：形态转弱Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned CalmUSD/CAD 风险转为平静
Sun Oct 04
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → World stressed美元格局 → 全球避险
Dollar Flipsmile_regime_flip Dollar Dollar smile flipped: Calm growth → World stressed美元微笑翻转：平静增长 → 全球避险
Sat Oct 03
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 AUD/USD AUD: Chart shape broke downAUD：形态转弱Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Oct 02
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Thu Oct 01
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (+1.2%)美元今日异常大幅波动（+1.2%）
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar squeeze pattern now active美元挤压压力情景已激活
Wed Sep 30
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY JPY: Chart shape turned constructiveJPY：形态转好Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD: Trend turned downAUD：趋势转弱Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Chart shape形态 USD/MXN MXN: Chart shape broke downMXN：形态转弱Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/BRL BRL: Trend turned downBRL：趋势转弱Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Tue Sep 29
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned CalmEUR/USD 风险转为平静
Trend趋势 USD/MXN MXN: Trend turned downMXN：趋势转弱Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD: Trend turned downAUD：趋势转弱Assessed AUD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 AUD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Chart shape形态 USD/MXN MXN: Chart shape broke downMXN：形态转弱Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Mon Sep 28
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Trend趋势 USD/MXN MXN: Trend turned downMXN：趋势转弱Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Sun Sep 27
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Sep 26
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Sep 25
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 EUR/USD EUR: Chart shape broke downEUR：形态转弱Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned ElevatedAUD/USD 风险转为升高
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Choppiness波动性 USD/JPY USD/JPY risk turned ElevatedUSD/JPY 风险转为升高
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Thu Sep 24
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Wed Sep 23
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Chart shape形态 USD/CAD CAD: Chart shape broke downCAD：形态转弱Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 USD/MXN USD/MXN risk turned ElevatedUSD/MXN 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned ElevatedAUD/USD 风险转为升高
Tue Sep 22
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 EUR/USD EUR/USD Speculators very shortEUR/USD 投机者严重做空
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP: Chart shape broke downGBP：形态转弱Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Positioning持仓 GBP/USD GBP/USD Speculators very shortGBP/USD 投机者严重做空
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Mon Sep 21
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sun Sep 20
Chart shape形态 USD/CNH CNH: Chart shape turned constructiveCNH：形态转好Assessed CNH residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CNH 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sat Sep 19
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP: Trend turned downGBP：趋势转弱Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/CAD CAD 12-month trend turned downCAD 12个月趋势转为下降Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/CAD CAD: Trend turned downCAD：趋势转弱Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Sep 18
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Trend趋势 EUR/USD EUR: Trend turned downEUR：趋势转弱Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP: Trend turned downGBP：趋势转弱Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/CAD CAD: Trend turned downCAD：趋势转弱Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CNH CNH: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CNH：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CNH residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CNH 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Thu Sep 17
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Rate edge利差 GBP/USD GBP/USD: carry on GBP turned negativeGBP/USD：GBP 套息转为负
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned ElevatedUSD/CAD 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Wed Sep 16
Dollar link美元联动 Dollar Dollar link to US bonds (10y) changed: now a headwind美元与美债(10年)的联动改变：现为压制
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern no longer active风险偏好回升情景已解除
Tue Sep 15
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Positioning持仓 USD/CAD USD/CAD Speculators very longUSD/CAD 投机者严重做多
Trend趋势 USD/CNH CNH: Trend turned upCNH：趋势转强Assessed CNH residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CNH 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Mon Sep 14
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CNH CNH: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)CNH：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed CNH residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CNH 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Risk-on rally pattern now active风险偏好回升压力情景已激活
Sun Sep 13
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sat Sep 12
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Fri Sep 11
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/BRL BRL: Trend turned upBRL：趋势转强Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)GBP：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Thu Sep 10
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Trend趋势 USD/CAD CAD 12-month trend turned upCAD 12个月趋势转为上升Assessed CAD residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CAD 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Wed Sep 09
Dollar link美元联动 Dollar Dollar link to US bonds (10y) changed: now not linked now美元与美债(10年)的联动改变：现为暂无联动
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red: USD, equities, and Treasuries all declining三重下跌：美元、股市、国债同步下行
Trend趋势 USD/JPY JPY: Trend turned upJPY：趋势转强Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY JPY: Chart shape turned constructiveJPY：形态转好Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Tue Sep 08
Positioning持仓 EUR/USD EUR/USD Speculators very shortEUR/USD 投机者严重做空
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed MXN residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 MXN 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sun Sep 06
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sat Sep 05
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Sep 04
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行Assessed JPY residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 JPY 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/CHF CHF: Trend turned downCHF：趋势转弱Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/CNH CNH: Trend turned upCNH：趋势转强Assessed CNH residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CNH 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern no longer active干预关注情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Intervention watch pattern now active干预关注压力情景已激活
Thu Sep 03
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed EUR residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 EUR 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP 12-month trend turned upGBP 12个月趋势转为上升Assessed GBP residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 GBP 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Wed Sep 02
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned ElevatedUSD/CHF 风险转为升高
Chart shape形态 USD/CHF CHF: Chart shape broke downCHF：形态转弱Assessed CHF residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 CHF 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Trend趋势 USD/BRL BRL: Trend turned downBRL：趋势转弱Assessed BRL residual technical series; event-day input dollar-adjusted.受评估货币 BRL 的残差技术序列；该日输入已调整美元影响。
Tue Sep 01
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Positioning持仓 USD/BRL USD/BRL Speculators very longUSD/BRL 投机者严重做多
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → Calm growth美元格局 → 平静增长
Dollar Flipsmile_regime_flip Dollar Dollar smile flipped: US booming → Calm growth美元微笑翻转：美国强势 → 平静增长
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Carry-trade unwind pattern no longer active套息平仓情景已解除
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar EM outflows pattern no longer active新兴市场资金外流情景已解除
This page describes today's currency backdrop. It moves with markets and does not predict them; nothing here is a trade recommendation. Pair reads are measured on past data and shown for context. 本页描述今日货币背景。随市场变化，不预测市场走势；本页内容不构成任何交易建议。货币对读数基于历史数据测算，仅供参考。
As of截至 Oct 29, 2026 · built构建于 2026-10-30 00:51 UTC · Data数据 1996-10-30..2026-10-29