💱 Forex Vector

How the dollar is moving and what it's pushing on — context, not trade calls. 美元走势及其连锁影响 — 仅作背景，非交易建议。

FOREX · Jul 19, 2026FOREX · Jul 19, 2026
Dollar strong 美元偏强
Watch — don't chase 观望，别追

A firm dollar is leaning on US stocks and EM stocks. 美元走强，正压制美股与新兴市场股票。

Broad USD广义美元120.5
DXY100.75
63d move63日走势1.8%
Risk mood风险情绪risk-on偏好风险
US booming美国强势
Calm growth平静增长
World stressed全球避险
Why the dollar is here: 美元处于此位置的原因： US booming美国强势
Broad USD广义美元 Risk-off避险
Real rates实际利率
High real rates实际利率偏高
Restrictive real yields — 10y real yield: 2.35% · Fed path 39bp priced to 12m · Futures-market positioning neutral
实际利率偏紧 — 10年实际收益率：2.35% · 美联储路径12个月定价39bp · 期货市场持仓中性
Trend趋势
Rising on all horizons全线上行
4/4 trend horizons up. Broad-dollar trailing momentum at multiple lookbacks.
4/4个趋势周期上行。广义美元多周期追踪动量。
Value估值
Fair合理
REER gap +0.3% vs 5y mean. Rich = dollar stretched above fair value, historically mean-reverts slowly.
REER偏离+0.3%（相对5年均值）。偏贵=美元高于公允价值，历史上缓慢回归。
Liquidity流动性
Tightening净收紧
Net Fed liquidity falling — tends to support the dollar. Net change: -186B / 63d.
美联储净流动性下降 — 往往支撑美元。净变化：-186B / 63天。

Dollar ripple effects美元连锁影响

Moves together day to day — context, not a forecast.日内联动 — 背景参考，非预测。

Asset资产 If USD rises若美元上涨 Strength联动强度
Gold黄金 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.75 (252 days: -0.48) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.75 · 252日：-0.48 · 稳定性：稳定
Copper铜 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.66 (252 days: -0.36) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.66 · 252日：-0.36 · 稳定性：稳定
US stocks美股 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.43 (252 days: -0.36) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.43 · 252日：-0.36 · 稳定性：稳定
Oil原油 Giving it a lift提振中
Moves together over 63 days: +0.42 (252 days: +0.41) · link: steady
63日相关：+0.42 · 252日：+0.41 · 稳定性：稳定
EM stocks新兴市场股票 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.37 (252 days: -0.46) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.37 · 252日：-0.46 · 稳定性：稳定
US bonds (10y)美债(10年) Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.35 (252 days: -0.29) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.35 · 252日：-0.29 · 稳定性：稳定
Bitcoin比特币 Leaning on it压制中
Moves together over 63 days: -0.26 (252 days: -0.20) · link: steady
63日相关：-0.26 · 252日：-0.20 · 稳定性：稳定
▸ Currencies now — relative strength当前货币强弱
BRL
+1.7%
GBP
+1.5%
CAD
+1.3%
AUD
+1.2%
CHF
+0.1%
USD
+0.0%
CNH
-0.4%
EUR
-0.5%
JPY
-0.6%
MXN
-0.7%
Trailing strength vs average currency. Green does not mean buy.相对平均货币的近端强弱。绿色不代表买入。

Stress watch风险预警

Nothing flashing — six stress patterns quiet.暂无预警 — 六种压力情景均平静。

Carry-trade unwind套息平仓
Carry-trade unwind: intensity 12%. In 1077 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
套息平仓：强度12%。在1077个类似历史日中，约1/10在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Dollar squeeze美元挤压
Dollar squeeze: intensity 12%. In 2965 similar past days, ≈2 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
美元挤压：强度12%。在2965个类似历史日中，约2/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
EM outflows新兴市场资金外流
EM outflows: intensity 9%. In 2502 similar past days, ≈3 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
新兴市场资金外流：强度9%。在2502个类似历史日中，约3/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。
Flight to safety避险出逃
Flight to safety: intensity 0%. In 7654 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 15d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
避险出逃：强度0%。在7654个类似历史日中，约1/10在15天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Risk-on rally风险偏好回升
Risk-on rally: intensity 0%. In 5782 similar past days, ≈1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 20d (history is thin — wide uncertainty).
风险偏好回升：强度0%。在5782个类似历史日中，约1/10在20天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。
Intervention watch干预关注
Intervention watch: intensity 0%. In 7497 similar past days, fewer than 1 in 10 saw the adverse move within 10d (history is thin — wide uncertainty). Pattern illustrative — managed market.
干预关注：强度0%。在7497个类似历史日中，不到一成在10天内出现不利走势（历史样本薄，不确定性宽）。 情景示意 — 受管理市场。

The pairs货币对

Leans are context, not trade calls.倾向仅作背景，非交易建议。
The majors主要货币对 · 2
EUR/USD欧元/美元
The world's most traded pair全球交易量最大货币对
1.1446
-0.5% / 1mo
Leaning lower倾向走低
Model lean -22 of ±100, confidence 77% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-22（±100范围），信心77% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: -1.4%/yr持有有息：-1.4%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.38% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.31.
利差优势（套息）：-1.38%年化。套息/波动：-0.31。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +2.8% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+2.8%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.12.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.12。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: -0.10.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.10。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.05.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.05。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: +0.04.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
GBP/USD英镑/美元
UK rates and fiscal mood英国利率与财政情绪
1.3452
+1.5% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 2 of ±100, confidence 55% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向2（±100范围），信心55% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: +0.1%/yr持有有息：+0.1%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): +0.10% annualised. Carry/vol: 0.02.
利差优势（套息）：+0.10%年化。套息/波动：0.02。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +2.9% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+2.9%。
 WAIT等待
Multi-timeframe grade: WAIT — Mixed / transitional. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：等待 — 混合 / 过渡。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.07.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.07。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.02.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
−
Risk mood: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.02.
风险情绪：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
−
Interest-rate edge: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.01.
利差优势：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Commodity currencies商品货币 · 2
AUD/USD澳元/美元
The China-growth barometer中国增长晴雨表
0.6985
+1.2% / 1mo
Leaning lower倾向走低
Model lean -42 of ±100, confidence 82% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-42（±100范围），信心82% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: +0.8%/yr持有有息：+0.8%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): +0.83% annualised. Carry/vol: 0.12.
利差优势（套息）：+0.83%年化。套息/波动：0.12。
 Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +8.8% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+8.8%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.23.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.23。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.21.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.21。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.06.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.05.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
●
Interest-rate edge: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
利差优势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
USD/CAD美元/加元
The oil currency石油货币
1.402
-1.3% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 9 of ±100, confidence 61% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向9（±100范围），信心61% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: -1.4%/yr持有有息：-1.4%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -1.36% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.42.
利差优势（套息）：-1.36%年化。套息/波动：-0.42。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -3.4% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-3.4%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.12.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.12。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: +0.11.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.11。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.07.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.07。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
●
Sudden shocks: for. Pull on the score: -0.04.
突发冲击：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: -0.03.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.02.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Safe havens避险货币 · 2
USD/JPY美元/日元
The funding currency — moves fast in panics融资货币 — 恐慌时波动剧烈
162.353
+0.6% / 1mo
Leaning lower倾向走低
Model lean -43 of ±100, confidence 94% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-43（±100范围），信心94% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: -2.8%/yr持有有息：-2.8%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -2.79% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.82.
利差优势（套息）：-2.79%年化。套息/波动：-0.82。
 Cheap vs history相对历史偏低
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -12.7% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-12.7%。
 Avoid回避
Multi-timeframe grade: AVOID — Downtrend confirmed across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：回避 — 各周期确认下行。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Its own trend自身趋势
○
Its own trend: against. Pull on the score: -0.21.
自身趋势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.21。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.08.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.08。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: -0.05.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.05。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
●
Trader crowding: for. Pull on the score: -0.03.
持仓拥挤度：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: +0.03.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
USD/CHF美元/瑞郎
The quiet haven低调避险
0.8069
-0.1% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 12 of ±100, confidence 63% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向12（±100范围），信心63% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Paid to hold: -3.7%/yr持有有息：-3.7%/年
Interest-rate edge (carry): -3.67% annualised. Carry/vol: -0.64.
利差优势（套息）：-3.67%年化。套息/波动：-0.64。
 Fair合理
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +2.6% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+2.6%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Interest-rate edge利差优势
○
Interest-rate edge: against. Pull on the score: +0.17.
利差优势：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.17。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.11.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.11。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: +0.08.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.08。
Long-rate gap长端利差
○
Long-rate gap: against. Pull on the score: -0.04.
长端利差：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.04。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: +0.02.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
○
Risk mood: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
风险情绪：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.01.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.01。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.00.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
Its own trend自身趋势
−
Its own trend: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
自身趋势：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
⚑ SNB has historically capped CHF (2015 floor gapped ~20%).瑞士央行历史上设过下限（2015年跳空约20%）。
Emerging markets新兴市场 · 3
USD/MXN美元/墨西哥比索
High-carry EM bellwether高息新兴市场风向标
17.485
+0.7% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -19 of ±100, confidence 59% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-19（±100范围），信心59% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +11.2% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+11.2%。
 Buy the dip逢低买入
Multi-timeframe grade: BUY-THE-DIP — Healthy pullback within an uptrend. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：逢低买入 — 上升趋势内的健康回调。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: -0.15.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.15。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.13.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.13。
Chart structure形态结构
○
Chart structure: against. Pull on the score: +0.07.
形态结构：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.07。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
○
Sudden shocks: against. Pull on the score: +0.06.
突发冲击：利空。对评分的拉动：+0.06。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
○
Trader crowding: against. Pull on the score: -0.02.
持仓拥挤度：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.02。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Cheap or rich估值高低
−
Cheap or rich: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
估值高低：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
USD/BRL美元/巴西雷亚尔
Commodity-linked carry商品挂钩套息
5.1108
-1.7% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean -12 of ±100, confidence 53% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向-12（±100范围），信心53% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
Rich偏高
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: +8.5% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：+8.5%。
 Caution谨慎
Multi-timeframe grade: CAUTION — Unconfirmed turn within a bearish bigger picture. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：谨慎 — 偏空大格局内的未确认转向。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: -0.17.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：-0.17。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.09.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.09。
Cheap or rich估值高低
○
Cheap or rich: against. Pull on the score: -0.03.
估值高低：利空。对评分的拉动：-0.03。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Trader crowding持仓拥挤度
−
Trader crowding: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.01.
持仓拥挤度：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
−
Sudden shocks: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: +0.00.
突发冲击：中性。对评分的拉动：+0.00。
Chart structure形态结构
−
Chart structure: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
形态结构：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
USD/CNH美元/离岸人民币
Beijing-managed — watched for stress北京管理 — 关注压力信号
6.7535
+0.4% / 1mo
No clear lean无明显倾向
Model lean 15 of ±100, confidence 52% — measured on past data, shown for context.
模型倾向15（±100范围），信心52% — 基于历史数据测算，仅作背景。
 less tested检验不足
Cheap vs history相对历史偏低
Cheap or rich vs 5y REER history: -5.1% gap.
相对5年REER历史的估值偏离：-5.1%。
 Follow the trend顺势
Multi-timeframe grade: TREND-FOLLOW — Aligned uptrend across timeframes. Technical timing overlay only; not a return-checked signal.
多周期评级：顺势 — 各周期一致向上。仅为技术择时叠加，非经收益验证。
Offshore–onshore CNH basis离岸–在岸人民币基差: -34 bps — broadly aligned with the onshore fix.与在岸中间价大体一致。
Choppiness波动风险
●
Choppiness: for. Pull on the score: +0.10.
波动风险：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.10。
Its own trend自身趋势
●
Its own trend: for. Pull on the score: +0.09.
自身趋势：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.09。
Chart structure形态结构
●
Chart structure: for. Pull on the score: +0.04.
形态结构：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.04。
Risk mood风险情绪
●
Risk mood: for. Pull on the score: +0.03.
风险情绪：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.03。
Cheap or rich估值高低
●
Cheap or rich: for. Pull on the score: +0.01.
估值高低：利多。对评分的拉动：+0.01。
Sudden shocks突发冲击
−
Sudden shocks: flat/neutral. Pull on the score: -0.00.
突发冲击：中性。对评分的拉动：-0.00。
⚑ Managed regime — the official fix sets the level; read as risk-context only.受管理汇率 — 由中间价决定水平；仅作风险背景解读。

Do these styles work?这些策略有效吗

G10 carry basketG10套息篮子
Thin reward for real crash risk.回报有限，崩盘风险真实。
Now: long当前：做多 AUD GBP CAD · short做空 EUR JPY CHF
?
Yearly gain: +0.8% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.13 · Worst fall: -38% | Pre-2008: +0.7% / 0.15 | Post-2008: +0.8% / 0.13 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.8% · 单位波动收益：0.13 · 最大回撤：-38% | 2008前：+0.7% / 0.15 | 2008后：+0.8% / 0.13 — 仅基于历史数据。
Risk-off haven basket避险货币篮子
Costs a little most years; pays in a storm.平时小亏；风暴时获利。
Permanent: long havens, short risk currencies.长期：持有避险货币，做空风险货币。
?
Yearly gain: -2.1% · Gain per unit of swing: -0.14 · Worst fall: -49% | Pre-2008: -2.9% / -0.22 | Post-2008: -1.6% / -0.09 — past data only.
年化收益：-2.1% · 单位波动收益：-0.14 · 最大回撤：-49% | 2008前：-2.9% / -0.22 | 2008后：-1.6% / -0.09 — 仅基于历史数据。
Dollar trend overlay美元趋势叠加
A drawdown filter, not a money-maker.是回撤过滤器，不是盈利来源。
Currently long (trend up)当前做多（趋势向上）
?
Yearly gain: +0.5% · Gain per unit of swing: 0.12 · Worst fall: -33% | Pre-2008: +1.0% / 0.20 | Post-2008: -0.4% / -0.03 — past data only.
年化收益：+0.5% · 单位波动收益：0.12 · 最大回撤：-33% | 2008前：+1.0% / 0.20 | 2008后：-0.4% / -0.03 — 仅基于历史数据。
RECENT SHIFTS近期变化
Sun Jul 19
Triple-Redtriple_red Dollar Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
Fri Jul 17
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned upUSD/BRL：趋势转强
Wed Jul 15
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Tue Jul 14
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP buying that the dollar and rates don't explainGBP/USD：GBP 检测到美元与利率无法解释的买盘
Mon Jul 13
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP trend turned upGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看多
Fri Jul 10
Chart shape形态 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Chart shape broke downUSD/MXN：形态转弱
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP buying that the dollar and rates don't explainGBP/USD：GBP 检测到美元与利率无法解释的买盘
Thu Jul 09
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Trend turned upGBP/USD：趋势转强
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Tue Jul 07
Positioning持仓 EUR/USD EUR/USD Speculators very shortEUR/USD 投机者严重做空
Mon Jul 06
Choppiness波动性 USD/MXN USD/MXN risk turned CalmUSD/MXN 风险转为平静
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned downUSD/BRL：趋势转弱
Sun Jul 05
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned CalmAUD/USD 风险转为平静
Fri Jul 03
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned CalmUSD/CHF 风险转为平静
Wed Jul 01
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Mon Jun 29
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sun Jun 28
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainAUD/USD：AUD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Fri Jun 26
Sudden move突然波动 AUD/USD AUD/USD: AUD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainAUD/USD：AUD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Thu Jun 25
Choppiness波动性 USD/MXN USD/MXN risk turned ElevatedUSD/MXN 风险转为升高
Wed Jun 24
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR selling that the dollar and rates don't explainEUR/USD：EUR 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Tue Jun 23
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → US booming美元格局 → 美国强势
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Mon Jun 22
Trend趋势 USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF 12-month trend turned downUSD/CHF：CHF 12个月趋势转为下降
Trend趋势 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Trend turned downUSD/BRL：趋势转弱
Sun Jun 21
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Chart shape broke downGBP/USD：形态转弱
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Chart shape broke downUSD/JPY：形态转弱
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP trend turned downGBP/USD：GBP 动量 → 看空
Sat Jun 20
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Trend turned downGBP/USD：趋势转弱
Trend趋势 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Trend turned downAUD/USD：趋势转弱
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 USD/JPY USD/JPY: JPY chart shape broke downUSD/JPY：JPY 结构 → 破位
Fri Jun 19
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR selling that the dollar and rates don't explainEUR/USD：EUR 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: GBP selling that the dollar and rates don't explainGBP/USD：GBP 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Thu Jun 18
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (+0.2%)美元今日异常大幅波动（+0.2%）
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR selling that the dollar and rates don't explainEUR/USD：EUR 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Wed Jun 17
Dollar regime美元格局 Dollar Dollar regime → Calm growth美元格局 → 平静增长
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: CHF selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CHF：CHF 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned CalmUSD/CHF 风险转为平静
Tue Jun 16
Trend趋势 EUR/USD EUR/USD: EUR 12-month trend turned downEUR/USD：EUR 12个月趋势转为下降
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD selling that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CAD：CAD 检测到美元与利率无法解释的卖压
Mon Jun 15
Sudden move突然波动 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)GBP/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Trend趋势 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Trend turned upUSD/MXN：趋势转强
Sun Jun 14
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Sat Jun 13
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Chart shape形态 AUD/USD AUD/USD: Chart shape broke downAUD/USD：形态转弱
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Fri Jun 12
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Choppiness波动性 USD/JPY USD/JPY risk turned CalmUSD/JPY 风险转为平静
Thu Jun 11
Trend趋势 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Trend turned downGBP/USD：趋势转弱
Chart shape形态 GBP/USD GBP/USD: Chart shape broke downGBP/USD：形态转弱
Chart shape形态 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Chart shape broke downUSD/CHF：形态转弱
Chart shape形态 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Chart shape broke downUSD/BRL：形态转弱
Tue Jun 09
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned ElevatedGBP/USD 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 USD/BRL USD/BRL: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/BRL：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Choppiness波动性 USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned CalmUSD/CAD 风险转为平静
Mon Jun 08
Choppiness波动性 USD/CHF USD/CHF risk turned ElevatedUSD/CHF 风险转为升高
Trend趋势 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Trend turned downUSD/CHF：趋势转弱
Choppiness波动性 USD/CAD USD/CAD risk turned CalmUSD/CAD 风险转为平静
Chart shape形态 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Chart shape broke downUSD/CAD：形态转弱
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned ElevatedAUD/USD 风险转为升高
Fri Jun 05
Sudden move突然波动 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)EUR/USD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Dollar flash美元闪动 Dollar Unusually large dollar move today (+0.5%)美元今日异常大幅波动（+0.5%）
Thu Jun 04
Chart shape形态 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Chart shape broke downEUR/USD：形态转弱
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned ElevatedUSD/BRL 风险转为升高
Wed Jun 03
Sudden move突然波动 USD/MXN USD/MXN: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/MXN：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Choppiness波动性 USD/BRL USD/BRL risk turned CalmUSD/BRL 风险转为平静
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned CalmEUR/USD 风险转为平静
Choppiness波动性 AUD/USD AUD/USD risk turned CalmAUD/USD 风险转为平静
Tue Jun 02
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (down)USD/CAD：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常下行
Mon Jun 01
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned CalmEUR/USD 风险转为平静
Fri May 29
Choppiness波动性 GBP/USD GBP/USD risk turned CalmGBP/USD 风险转为平静
Trend趋势 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Trend turned downUSD/JPY：趋势转弱
Thu May 28
Trend趋势 USD/CAD USD/CAD: Trend turned downUSD/CAD：趋势转弱
Mon May 25
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CHF USD/CHF: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/CHF：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Fri May 22
Trend趋势 EUR/USD EUR/USD: Trend turned downEUR/USD：趋势转弱
Choppiness波动性 USD/JPY USD/JPY risk turned ElevatedUSD/JPY 风险转为升高
Thu May 21
Sudden move突然波动 USD/JPY USD/JPY: Unusual move the dollar and rates don't explain (up)USD/JPY：出现美元与利率无法解释的异常上行
Trend趋势 USD/CAD USD/CAD: CAD 12-month trend turned downUSD/CAD：CAD 12个月趋势转为下降
Choppiness波动性 EUR/USD EUR/USD risk turned ElevatedEUR/USD 风险转为升高
Sudden move突然波动 USD/CNH USD/CNH: CNH buying that the dollar and rates don't explainUSD/CNH：CNH 检测到美元与利率无法解释的买盘
This page describes today's currency backdrop. It moves with markets and does not predict them; nothing here is a trade recommendation. Pair reads are measured on past data and shown for context. 本页描述今日货币背景。随市场变化，不预测市场走势；本页内容不构成任何交易建议。货币对读数基于历史数据测算，仅作背景参考。
As of截至 Jul 19, 2026 · built构建于 2026-07-19 23:01 UTC · Data数据 1996-10-30..2026-07-19