Macro Regime Dashboard — 2026-10-29

Signals — Evidence Breakdown信号 — 依据分析

Composite Score综合评分

51

Mixed 混合

Blended 0–100 · ≥60 risk-on · 42–59 mixed · <42 risk-off 合成 0-100 · ≥60 偏多 · 42-59 混合 · <42 避险

Six Factors六大因子

Trend & technicals趋势与技术

0/3 US indices in an uptrend across timeframes (mixed, rolling over, turning up).0/3 个美股指数多周期呈上升趋势。

050100

56

Risk appetite风险偏好

Cross-asset RORO neutral; bonds/FX diverge跨资产 RORO 中性；债/汇背离

050100

27

Volatility regime波动率环境

VIX term contango (calm); vol 52%ileVIX 期限正向（平静）；波动 52 百分位

050100

71

Breadth & participation广度与参与 WEAKEST最弱

Breadth 36%ile of 2y; a divergence vs price广度处于两年 36 百分位；与价格背离

050100

20

Liquidity & credit流动性与信用

Fed liquidity neutral; HY credit widening联储流动性中性；高收益信用走阔

050100

52

Downturn-risk guard下行风险护栏

Downturn risk low; drawdown band low下行风险低；回撤区间低

050100

87

Watch: Breadth & participation关注：广度与参与

Weakest leg at 20/100 — the closest flip-trigger. Confirms what has already turned; does not forecast. 最弱分项 20/100，最接近翻转触发点。确认已转向信号，不预测未来。

Multi-Timeframe Tape · Broad US Market多周期趋势 · 美股大盘

Index指数	1D	3D	7D	30D	Confluence合流
S&P 500标普500	▶51	▶55	▶57	▲76	Mixed分化
Nasdaq 100纳指100	▼44	▼49	▶51	▲72	Rolling over转弱中
Russell 2000罗素2000	▲58	▶50	▼45	▲62	Turning up转强中

DISPLAY-ONLY仅展示 Confirms what has already turned — does not forecast. Gauntlet applies at promotion only. as of 2026-10-29 确认已转向信号，不预测未来。2026-10-29 数据

Events — Week Ahead & Market Pricing事件 — 本周日历与市场定价

This Week本周

Oct 29

GDP (BEA estimate) GDP 数据

08:30 ET HIGH 高

Oct 29

PCE / personal income (BEA) PCE 物价指数

08:30 ET HIGH 高

Oct 29

Initial jobless claims 初请失业金

08:30 ET MED 中

Nov 2

ISM Manufacturing PMI ISM 制造业 PMI

10:00 ET MED 中

Nov 4

ISM Services PMI ISM 服务业 PMI

10:00 ET MED 中

Nov 5

Initial jobless claims 初请失业金

08:30 ET MED 中

Nov 6

Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) 非农就业报告

08:30 ET HIGH 高

Nov 10

CPI (consumer prices) 消费者物价指数（CPI）

08:30 ET HIGH 高

Release Radar数据发布雷达

Select a date above to see all modeled releases for that day. Tap a projection card for the full read. 选择上方日期，查看当天所有已建模数据；点击预测卡片查看完整解读。

our projection vs benchmarks 本方预测 vs 基准

Loading release projections… 加载发布预测中…

display-only — not a signal · benchmarks, not investment advice · scored forward in public 仅展示 — 非信号 · 基准对比，非投资建议 · 正向评分公开记录

Market-implied benchmark — what traders price, not our read市场隐含基准 — 交易者定价，非本系统观点

94%

No change按兵不动

Next Fed decision下次美联储决议

▼ -1.0

96%

0 (0 bps)0 (0 bps)

Fed cuts this year今年降息次数

▼ -0.7

8%

US recession by end of 2026?US recession by end of 2026?

US recession美国衰退

▲ +0.5

Source: Polymarket来源：Polymarket

Markets — Index Health & Cross-Asset市场 — 指数健康度与跨资产

Index Health指数健康度

SPY

S&P 500

769.36

-0.38%

-1.2% off high距高 Above 50-day ✓高于50日线 ✓ Above 200-day ✓高于200日线 ✓ Neutral中性

QQQ

Nasdaq 100

715.34

-1.42%

-5.8% off high距高 Below 50-day ✕低于50日线 ✕ Above 200-day ✓高于200日线 ✓ Neutral中性

DJI

Dow Jones

52,342.56

-0.25%

-3.7% off high距高 Above 50-day ✓高于50日线 ✓ Above 200-day ✓高于200日线 ✓ Neutral中性

RUT

Russell 2000

2,859.22

+1.01%

-6.8% off high距高 Below 50-day ✕低于50日线 ✕ Above 200-day ✓高于200日线 ✓ Neutral中性

Sector Temperature板块温度

Leading sectors领涨板块

Lagging sectors滞涨板块

▽ AI Agents & ApplicationsAI 智能体与应用 #16

▽ Materials (Equal-Weight)材料（等权） #19

▽ Magnificent Seven七巨头 #21

▽ Technology (Equal-Weight)信息技术（等权） #23

S&P 500 Sector Heatmap标普500板块热力图

Full heatmap page →完整热力图页 →

Key Rates & Volatility关键利率与波动率

VIX

17.2

calm平静

Risk Radar风险雷达 2026-10-29

CAUTION警戒 84/100

Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动

Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders.减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。

Pullback odds ≥5%回撤概率 ≥5%

5d5日 4% 10d10日 10% 21d21日 19%

1.07× vs normal对比常态 18%

Fed: Hawkish 美联储：鹰派 Seasonal caution 季节谨慎 Overseas low 境外低

Market internals市场内部

Incomplete picture信号不全

Trend趋势 Mixed混合

Stress压力 Incomplete read数据不全

Some inputs are unavailable; this is not an all-clear.部分数据缺失，不代表风险已解除。

Growth scare / defensive rotation: building增长恐慌/防御轮动：积聚中

Trend includes older inputs.趋势读数含较早数据。

Settled收盘 2026-10-29 Odds evidence概率证据 · 21d history21日历史 · n=270 · observed实测 25%

Settled evidence · 4 sources收盘依据 · 4 个来源

Leadership and risk · settled evidence领涨变化与风险 · 收盘依据

Rotation evidence is unavailable for this session. This does not establish a stable market.本交易日的轮动依据不全，不能据此认定市场稳定。

The macro backdrop and relative leadership describe different aspects of the market. Shared price or breadth inputs do not count as independent confirmation.宏观背景与相对领涨结构描述市场的不同方面。共用的价格或广度数据不能重复计为独立确认。

Some source relationships remain unknown; there is no independent-signal count.部分来源之间的关系尚不明确，因此不提供独立信号数量。

Last recorded backdrop change: Risk-off → Mixed · 2026-10-20.最近记录的宏观判读变化：避险 → 混合 · 2026-10-20。

Relative strength can reflect a smaller decline. It does not establish fund inflows, institutional distribution, or a forecast of the next selloff.相对强势也可能只是跌幅较小，并不证明资金流入、机构派发或预示下一轮抛售。

Source来源	Its own read自身读数	As of数据日期	Freshness新鲜度
Market state市场状态	MIXED · 51	2026-10-29	This session本交易日 required必需
Leadership cohort龙头股群体	BROKEN	2026-10-23	Older than this session早于本交易日 required必需
Cross-asset scares跨资产风险扫描	caution · 84	2026-10-29	This session本交易日
Relative leadership相对领导变化	Defensive groups and broader-market proxies gaining relative strength防御板块与更广市场代理相对转强	2026-10-20	Older than this session早于本交易日

grey-deer-v1-2026-08-19 · bundle 804bb78b1bf11a65 · coverage DEGRADED · coherence MIXED (scope market_reads) · stage null (required_coverage_unavailable) · stage_since null (no_episode_lifecycle_in_v0) · engine/risk_envelope.py

No capital restrictions in force当前无资金限制 0 active项生效 Separate from the market readings. 与市场判读独立。

What's driving it?原因是什么？

Leading领先信号

Defensives outperforming防御股跑赢 — sharply— 显著

?

Calendar日历

Midterm year · weaker stretch 中期选举年 · 偏弱时段 rotate轮动

?

Overseas境外

Pressure from abroad海外传导压力 Low低

?

Scare ladder压力梯度highest first由高到低

Credit stress 信用压力

96.6 risk-off 避险

Growth scare / defensive rotation 增长恐慌/防御轮动

83.8 elevated 走高

Global breadth breakdown 全球广度破位 · data 3 days behind· 数据滞后3天

77.3 caution 谨慎

Rates / inflation shock 利率/通胀冲击

57.0 watch 警惕

Trend extension watch 趋势延伸观察

29.0 calm 平静

Volatility event 波动率事件

19.8 calm 平静

Breadth internals deterioration 内部广度恶化

18.1 calm 平静

Volatility & correlation波动率与相关性 as of截至 2026-10-23

Detailed volatility, curve, correlation and dispersion context. Display-only — the regime read above remains primary. 波动率、期限结构、相关性与分散度的详细背景。仅供展示——上方状态判断仍为主读数。

Volatility level波动率水平

gust疾风

5-day volatility change5 日波动率变化

breeze微风

Near-term vs far-term outlook近期与远期展望

breeze微风

How much traders expect next交易员对未来的预期

gust疾风

Overnight price swings隔夜价格波动

breeze微风

How much stocks move together股票同步程度

breeze微风

3-month implied correlation3个月隐含相关性

breeze微风

Stock-by-stock swings个股走势分散度

breeze微风

Sentiment情绪 ?Two sentiment lenses on one 0-100 scale: risk appetite (5-yr percentile of the risk-on/risk-off composite) and the broader sentiment mix. Internal name: Fear ↔ Euphoria: regime synthesis. Display-only.同一0-100刻度上的两把情绪尺：风险偏好（风险偏好/避险合成的5年百分位）与广义情绪合成。内部名称：恐惧 ↔ 欣喜：周期综合。仅供展示。

Risk appetite风险偏好 28/100 Fear恐惧

Sentiment mix情绪合成 44/100 Neutral中性

Panic恐慌 Fear恐惧 Neutral中性 Greed贪婪 Euphoria欣喜

Use both lenses to size risk — neither is a trade signal.用两把尺共同控制仓位——两者都不是交易信号。

Advanced sentiment context进阶情绪背景

Top-risk gauge顶部风险表 ? 26 Watch 关注 provisional暂定

Euphoric, leaders distributing under a held index — narrowing-top risk 欣喜，但龙头在被托住的指数下派发——顶部收窄风险

Euphoria亢奋度

28

Hidden selling暗中派发

24

Leadership context领涨背景as of截至 2026-10-23

Current theme pulse当前主题脉搏 as of截至 2026-10-23

AI SoftwareAI 软件 #9 AI AgentsAI 智能体 #16 Other Software其他软件 #3

View all 7 themes查看全部 7 个主题

AI SemisAI 半导体 #32 AI InfrastructureAI 基础设施 #34 Semicap Equipment半导体设备 #33 Memory & Storage存储与内存 #36

Compare live rank and five-session momentum across software, semis and prior hardware leaders. Descriptive rotation only — not a forecast or Market-State input.对比软件、半导体与此前硬件龙头的实时排名及五个交易日动量。仅描述轮动——不是预测，也不参与市场状态评分。

It is not today's leader roster or a broad-market veto. 它不是当下龙头名单，也不否决大盘状态。

Residual hardware damage残余硬件受损 — median ——中位数回撤 31% below 较过去 63-session high 个交易日高点

Tracked AI-hardware damage cohort跟踪中的 AI 硬件受损群组as of截至 2026-10-23

Residual damage — this tracked cohort's median name is 31% below its 63-session high. It is not today's leader roster or a broad-market veto. 残余受损——该跟踪群组中位数较过去 63 个交易日高点回撤31%。它不是当下龙头名单，也不否决大盘状态。

24names ≥30% off只跌超30%

CBRS

index指数

−58%

ICHR

−53%

UCTT

−51%

CRWV

−50%

CRDO

−48%

COHR

−45%

42 of 42 tracked names are 10%+ below their 63-session highs — residual cohort damage, not current market breadth. 42 个跟踪标的中有 42 个较过去 63 个交易日高点下跌逾 10%——这是群组残余受损，并非当前大盘广度。

Continuity monitor — compare with the current rotation pulse above. 连续性监测——请与上方当前轮动脉搏对照。

Method & track record方法与历史记录

Track record历史记录

Grading calls as they mature 评分随信号成熟展开

Advisory — sizes risk; does not override the measured tape.提示性信号——仅调整仓位，不覆盖实测盘面。

Policy Monitor政策监测

ELEVATED 警戒

Elevated — watch for market repricing 警戒 — 留意市场重定价

As of 2026-10-29 截至 2026-10-29

Conditions under which violent reversals are more likely — not intent, not timing. 衡量剧烈反转更可能发生的条件——不是意图，也不是时点。

Rate Path利率路径

'27 4.10% (Fed dot) '27 4.10%（美联储点图） '28 3.90% (Fed dot) '28 3.90%（美联储点图） '29 3.60% (Fed dot) '29 3.60%（美联储点图）

At end-2026 the market implies 3.98% vs the Fed's 4.10% median dot (-12bp — market ≈ the Fed). The near-term forward spread is positive — no cuts priced near-term (+0.73pp). 在end-2026，市场隐含 3.98% 对比美联储 4.10% 的中位点（-12基点 — 市场与美联储基本一致）。近端远期利差为正——近端未为降息定价（+0.73个百分点）。 market ≈ the Fed (-12bp at end-2026) 市场与美联储基本一致（-12bp @ end-2026）

Fed Stance美联储立场

Hawkish — unknown 鹰派 — unknown

market ≈ the Fed 市场与美联储基本一致

market prices ~3.0 hike(s) over 12m市场计入未来12个月约3.0次加息 market ≈ the Fed (-12bp)市场与美联储基本一致（-12bp）

Jawboning Activity政策发声活跃度

0

speeches 7d7日发声

15

speeches 30d30日发声

Last event: 2026-10-17 最近事件：2026-10-17

Trump signs Russia sanctions law then waives virtually all of it — commodity risk fades, enforcement threat stays 特朗普签署对俄制裁法案后几乎全部豁免——大宗商品风险消退，执法威慑仍在

Lever Board杠杆面板

Iran / oil 伊朗/石油

Middle East escalation is the transmission channel to rate-cut repricing, with oil as the lever. A rapid CL=F spike would widen breakevens and reprice fed-funds futures, reversing the conditions that have supported the semis recovery. 中东局势升级是向降息重定价传导的通道，石油是核心杠杆。CL=F快速飙升将扩大盈亏平衡通胀预期并重定价联邦基金期货，逆转支撑半导体复苏的现有条件。

caption as of 2026-07-18 — review due 文案更新于 2026-07-18 — 待复核

Quiet 平静

China / tariffs 中国/关税

US-China trade friction is the policy channel most directly tied to semis supply-chain margins: an escalation in tariffs or export controls would compress the margins priced into the current recovery. 中美贸易摩擦是与半导体供应链利润率关联最直接的政策渠道：关税或出口管制的任何升级，都会压缩已计入当前复苏预期的利润率。

caption as of 2026-07-18 — review due 文案更新于 2026-07-18 — 待复核

Quiet 平静

SMH SOXX drawdown -18.8% from 120d peak 较120日高点回撤-18.8%

4

days to the midterm election 距中期选举

US midterm elections: 4 days (2026-11-03). Policy cycle context only — no directional read. 美国中期选举：4天（2026年11月3日）。仅作政策周期背景参考，不作方向性判断。

Active Repricing Channels活跃重定价渠道

No repricing channels active today. 今日无活跃重定价渠道。

Last confirmed flip最近确认翻转 2026-10-22

Context only — not a forecast. 仅供参考 — 非预测。

AI Brief — SynthesisAI简报 — 综合

AI Daily Brief · cross-asset synthesisAI 每日简报 · 跨资产综合

2026-10-16 Updated daily每日更新

A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源

The gist要点

Main driver: Chip stocks are unwinding and dragging growth shares lower.主要驱动因素：芯片股正在回调，并拖累成长股走低。
Map shift: Reflation is gaining, but the transition remains unsettled.市场格局变化：再通胀交易升温，但转向仍不稳定。
Pressure points: A firm dollar and restrictive yields weigh on risk assets.压力点：美元坚挺和收益率维持限制性水平，令风险资产承压。

What to do: Watch — don't chase 应对策略：保持观望——不要追涨

Key readings关键读数

Regime市场格局Reflation · shifting再通胀 · 转换中 Market risk市场风险Low低 Money资金面Expanding扩张 Bonds vs stocks债股关系Mixed好坏参半 Credit信用NormalNormal What's moving markets当前主导AI / semisAI / semis

Confidence: Medium置信度：中as of数据截至 2026-10-16

The full read完整解读

The US remains near the Reflation position, with odds moving further toward Reflation. Growth is firm and inflation is warming, but low confidence and transition flags make this an unsettled position. The dominant driver is the chip-stock unwind. A hawkish Fed, restrictive real yields and a firm dollar add pressure, while low recession risk limits the broader alarm. 美国仍接近再通胀区间，且进入再通胀的概率进一步上升。增长稳健、通胀升温，但置信度偏低且存在转型信号，表明当前状态尚未稳定。主导因素是芯片股回调。美联储立场偏鹰、实际收益率具有限制性以及美元坚挺进一步施压，而衰退风险较低则缓解了整体担忧。

⚖︎ Where signals disagree⚖︎ 信号分歧

Bonds: The bond desk says health is solid, but credit is widening — markets look calm, not carefree.债券：债券交易台认为基本面稳健，但信用利差正在扩大——市场看似平静，却并非高枕无忧。
Stress: The washout screen sees recovery potential, but chip leadership is still breaking — wait for stabilization.压力：超卖筛选显示存在复苏潜力，但芯片股领涨格局仍在瓦解——应等待企稳。
Global split: The US leans Reflation, but China has weak growth and shrinking liquidity — overseas demand is not confirming.全球分化：美国倾向再通胀，但中国增长疲弱且流动性收缩——海外需求尚未形成确认。

⛓︎ Chain reactions⛓︎ 连锁反应

If the dollar keeps strengthening → stocks, emerging markets, metals and Bitcoin face more pressure如果美元持续走强 → 股票、新兴市场、金属和比特币将面临更大压力
If restrictive real yields keep up → growth shares and long bonds remain under strain如果限制性实际收益率维持高位 → 成长股和长期债券将继续承压

♻︎ Playbook check♻︎ 剧本对照

Chip leadership broke while Bitcoin remains risk-on, so the usual rotation sequence is not confirming. 芯片股的领涨格局已被打破，而 Bitcoin 仍处于风险偏好状态，因此通常的轮动顺序尚未得到确认。

What to watch关注事项

Chip rebound: Leadership pressure is easing 芯片股反弹：领涨压力正在缓解
Credit stops widening: Bond-market concern is fading 信用利差停止扩大：债券市场担忧正在消退
Dollar weakens: Pressure on global risk assets eases 美元走弱：全球风险资产压力缓解
Inflation stays warm: Restrictive policy lasts longer 通胀持续偏热：限制性政策将维持更久

Upcoming catalysts即将到来的催化剂

10-28 FOMC rate decision10-29 GDP (BEA estimate)10-29 PCE / personal income (BEA)

The Fed decision leads into growth and inflation data. That cluster will test whether the Reflation drift can survive current market stress. The Fed decision leads into growth and inflation data. That cluster will test whether the Reflation drift can survive current market stress.

News — Market Intelligence新闻 — 市场情报

Priority优先

📅 Major event on deck — expect bigger swings either way重大事件临近 — 双向波动或加大

Event事件

Event-risk window: GDP (BEA estimate) today — elevated two-sided volatility expected. Not a sell signal; size for the noise.事件风险窗口：GDP 数据（今天）—— 预计升高的两面性波动。非卖出信号；按噪声调整仓位。

A high-impact scheduled release (CPI, Fed decision, jobs report) lands in the coming sessions — the message says which and when. Moves around these prints are two-sided and often retraced — a volatility warning, not a directional call. Size positions for the noise; avoid forcing new trades right into the print.未来数个交易日内将有高影响力的既定事件（CPI、美联储决议、就业报告）——具体是哪个、何时，见提示内容。事件前后的波动是双向的、常被回补 —这是波动性提示，并非方向判断。按噪声调整仓位，避免在数据公布前强行开新仓。

Context背景