The Regime当前周期

Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively.混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。

⚠An act-level alert is firing — capped at Mixed pending review.有行动级警报触发 — 暂封顶为「混合」待复核。

→ Green if the act-level alert clears. → Red if trend & technicals and volatility regime both break down (now 55, 72/100).→ 若行动级警报解除，则转「偏多」。→ 若趋势与技术与波动率环境同时走坏（现 55、72/100），则转「避险」。

Stagflation滞胀  ·  shifting — backdrop fading, not all-clear; see the risk read → Stagflation滞胀  ·  转换中 — 背景趋弱，并非全面利好；参见风险解读 →
56 /100
Market state市场状态

Mixed混合▶

Risk-off 0避险 0 Mixed 50混合 50 Risk-on 100偏好 100
tick = today's score 标记 = 今日得分
Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Under the surface: Health Care / Staples / Utilities have held while Energy / Discretionary faded — a rotation read, not a high-beta cue. 表面之下：医疗保健／必需消费／公用事业相对坚挺，能源／可选消费走弱 — 这是轮动观察，并非追高贝塔的信号。
20-Year Bond auction (reopening) 09-15 20年期国债拍卖（续发行） 09-15
What could change the regime call什么会改变周期判断 ?Drawn only from today's regime-engine readings, shown as-is. Weakest support: the component still supporting the call — slope z -0.49 vs its ±0.45 cutoff, margin 0.04. Drift: how the model's regime probabilities moved over the last 5 sessions. How firmly held: 0–1 = probability behind the label × how much the inputs agree. Conditional context only — nothing here predicts a flip.仅取自今日周期引擎的读数，原样展示。最弱支撑：仍支撑当前判断的最弱分量 — 斜率 z -0.49，阈值 ±0.45（边际 0.04）。漂移方向：模型周期概率近 5 个交易日的变化。把握程度：0–1 = 标签背后的概率 × 输入一致度。仅为条件性参考 — 并非预测翻转。 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
About the regime label — not the 0-100 risk score.指上方周期标签——并非 0-100 风险评分。
Weakest support最弱支撑 the shopper-confidence trade is the shakiest evidence behind this call — cushion today: razor-thin 消费信心交易是当前判断中最不稳的一条证据 — 今日缓冲：极薄
Drift漂移方向 the model's odds have been sliding toward Reflation, away from Stagflation, for 5 sessions 近5个交易日概率正滑向再通胀、离开滞胀
How firmly held把握程度 loosely (0.3 / 1) — it wouldn't take much new evidence to change this label 较松（0.3 / 1）— 不需太多新证据即可改变该判断
Treat the label as provisional — lean on the risk score, not the regime name.该标签宜视为临时——以风险评分为主，勿依赖周期名称。
Stagflation滞胀  ·  Shifting — not all-clear Stagflation滞胀  ·  转换中 — 非全面利好 ⓘ
0 50 100 56 / 100
56 Mixed混合
YELLOW — Trade with caution 谨慎操作
REGIME CONTEXT周期背景 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
Stagflation now, with today’s odds drifting toward Reflation. 当前为滞胀，今日概率正向再通胀漂移。
STAGFLATION 滞胀 88% REFLATION 再通胀 11% GROWTH-SCARE 增长恐慌 0% GOLDILOCKS 理想增长 0% growth → 增长 → infl ↑ 通胀 ↑
today’s reading今日读数 confirmed regime已确认周期
Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively. 混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。
→ Green if the act-level alert clears. → Red if trend & technicals and volatility regime both break down (now 55, 72/100). 若行动级警报解除，则转「偏多」。→ 若趋势与技术与波动率环境同时走坏（现 55、72/100），则转「避险」。
46-session path 近 46 交易日走势 Measured blend · last graded Sep 11实测合成分 · 最后评级 9月11日
Three reads, kept separate三项判读，各自独立

Do the market reads agree?市场判读一致吗？

Settled已结算 2026-09-14

Not fully. One read can't be made cleanly today. What we can see is shown below, unchanged. 并不完全一致。今日有一项无法干净判读，可见部分原样列于下方，未做平均。

Is the trend still there?趋势还在吗？

Mixed混合

Slow trend read, carried unchanged from the score above — 56/100. 慢速趋势判读，原样取自上方评分 — 56/100。

2026-09-14
Is anything breaking?有什么正在断裂？

Not enough to say证据不足

A source we need didn't settle today, so we're not calling this either way. 今日缺少必需来源的结算数据，因此不作任何判定。

2026-09-14 · 1 source couldn't be read· 1 个来源无法读取
Evidence — 3 sources 证据 — 3 个来源
Source来源 Its own read自身读数 As of数据日期 Freshness新鲜度
Market state市场状态 MIXED · 56 2026-09-14 This session本交易日 required必需
Leadership cohort龙头股群体 BROKEN 2026-09-11 Older than this session早于本交易日 required必需
Cross-asset scares跨资产风险扫描 caution · 50 2026-09-14 This session本交易日

grey-deer-v1-2026-08-19 · bundle 501a31e766870ea4 · coverage DEGRADED · coherence MIXED (scope market_reads) · stage null (required_coverage_unavailable) · stage_since null (no_episode_lifecycle_in_v0) · engine/risk_envelope.py

Capital policy资金政策 No Grey Deer policy active未启用任何 Grey Deer 政策 Nothing is restricted. This is a market read — it carries no instruction, and it is not part of the agreement above. 当前没有任何限制。这是一项市场判读——不含任何操作指示，也不参与上方的一致性比较。 0 active项生效
Each read keeps its own clock, so a source that didn't settle can't vote "calm". Agreement above compares the two market reads only. 每项判读各自计时；未结算的来源不会投出「平静」票。上方的一致性仅比较两项市场判读。
What To Do Now现在怎么做
Trade small. Stay selective. 缩小仓位，精选标的。
Mixed · 56/100 混合 · 56/100
FOMC rate decision (SEP · dot-plot): expect noise; ignore the first move. 美联储议息会议（SEP · 点阵图）：波动会放大，忽略初动。
Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Upcoming Events近期事件
This week本周
1 high-impact print ahead 1 项高影响数据待发
Sep 15
20-Year Bond auc…20年期国债拍…
MED 中
Sep 16
FOMC rate decisi…美联储议息会议…
HIGH 高
Sep 17
Initial jobless …初请失业金
MED 中
Sep 17
10-Year Note auc…10年期国债拍…
MED 中
Sep 18
Quad-witching ex…四巫日期权到期
MED 中

Release Radar数据发布雷达 ?Pre-print model projections for upcoming US macro releases (CPI, NFP, PCE, PPI). Comparison set is our own benchmark set (naive prior, trailing trend, Cleveland nowcast) — not street estimates. Display-only context; not investment advice; scored forward in public.即将公布美国宏观数据（CPI、NFP、PCE、PPI）的预测模型。对比基准为我方自有基准集（朴素先验、趋势追踪、克利夫兰预报），非街道估算。仅展示，非投资建议，正向评分公开记录。

Forward model · display-only · benchmarks · scored in public 前瞻模型 · 仅展示 · 基准对比 · 公开评分
Loading release projections… 加载发布预测中…
Fed Path联储路径
Two-sided — watch the tape 双向——观察市场走势
Outlook is two-sided: futures price about 4 hikes; hawkish and easing inputs are roughly balanced (3 vs 4) 前景双向：期货定价约4次加息；鹰派与宽松因素大体制衡（3对4）
Market prices ~4 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.63% → 4.52%) 市场为未来12个月定价约加息4次（基金利率 3.63% → 4.52%）
Policy: watch for repricing 政策：留意重定价
Open forward board打开前瞻看板 →
Market Sentiment市场情绪
PANIC 恐慌 EUPHORIA 亢奋
Neutral 中性
Composite at 45 · neutral zone 综合指数 45 · 中性区间
strength concentrated in AI-linked names, the rest is not confirming 涨势集中于 AI 相关个股，非 AI 板块未能跟进
Open sentiment detail打开情绪详情 →
Sector Temperature板块温度
Hot热门
Crypto & Digital Assets 加密与数字资产 Energy (Equal-Weight) 能源（等权） Magnificent Seven 七巨头
Cold低迷
Gold Miners 黄金矿业 Technology (Equal-Weight) 信息技术（等权） Big Pharma 大型药企
Sector Heat板块热图
▲ Heating▲ 升温 Cooling ▼退潮 ▼
Open sector heat打开板块热图 →
ES
S&P fut标普期货
—
—
NQ
Nasdaq fut纳指期货
—
—
YM
Dow fut道指期货
—
—
RTY
Russell fut罗素期货
—
—
10Y
10Y yield十年期收益率
—
—
DXY
Dollar DXY美元指数
—
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Risk风险
Growth Scare / Defensive Rotation 增长恐慌/防御轮动
Intensity 50/100强度 50/100
CPI today — expect elevated tape noise. 消费者物价今日发布 — 市场噪音可能放大。
Policy Monitor政策监测
Elevated — watch for repricing 警戒 — 警惕重定价
Market prices ~4 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.63% → 4.52%) 市场为未来12个月定价约加息4次（基金利率 3.63% → 4.52%）
Hawkish鹰派 1 speech this week 本周1次政策发声
AI BriefAI简报
QQQ ORCL XLF MSTR
1 High-Impact Items
Dominant channel: growth
1 high-impact signals across channels 1 条高影响信息
主导频道：增长
1 条高影响信号
A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source. 仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源。
Alerts Centre警报中心
3 FIRED 3 条触发
🫧 Calm surface, fragile internals — complacency watch 表象平静、内部脆弱 — 自满预警
Hidden fragility: a calm surface (cheap VIX, contango) over weakening internals (thinning breadth, HY widening) — the cl… 隐性脆弱：平静表象（低VIX、contango）下内部走弱（宽度变薄、HY走阔）— 典型的自满型回撤前夜
🧲 Options “gravity” flipped — bigger swings more likely 期权“引力”反转 — 波动可能加大
GEX: net GEX changed sign (net +21bn, spot vs flip +0.2%) GEX：净 GEX 转变方向（净 +21bn，现价相对翻转点 +0.2%）
📰 Oracle's stock edges up on earnings beat as cloud infrastructure revenue more th… 甲骨文股价因业绩超预期小幅上涨，云基础设施收入翻倍以上
CNBC - Tech · High impact高影响
Showing 2 of 6 in feed 显示 2 / 6 条
Data health数据健康度 ?Every data source this dashboard depends on. OK = fresh. STALE = no new data lately (signal confidence reduced automatically). FAILED = today's fetch broke (yesterday's data still used). BLOCKED = a known, documented limitation — not a malfunction. DEAD = failed 3+ runs and paused until it recovers.本仪表盘所依赖的每个数据源。OK = 新鲜。STALE = 近期无新数据（信号置信度已自动下调）。FAILED = 今日抓取失败（仍沿用昨日数据）。BLOCKED = 已知且有记录的限制 — 并非故障。DEAD = 连续 3 次以上失败，已暂停直至恢复。 19 need attention需关注 · 189 sources数据源 ▾
source数据源status状态rows行数last data最新数据note备注
beneficial_ownership ok正常 12026-09-14
bgeo ok正常 72026-09-13
bis ok正常 12026-09-13
breadth ok正常 6502026-09-11
broad_flows ok正常 32026-09-13
canada_breadth ok正常 7292026-09-11
canada_macro ok正常 733802026-09-11
canada_prices ok正常 3672026-09-14
canada_universe ok正常 12026-09-11
cboe_cor_vol ok正常 176332026-09-11
cboe_gex ok正常 0—
cboe_putcall ok正常 0—
cboe_skew ok正常 92252026-09-11
cboe_vix_futures ok正常 122026-09-11
cboe_vvix ok正常 51022026-09-11
china_a_valuation ok正常 5222026-09-14
china_board_breadth blocked已屏蔽 0— whole-board A-share snapshot unavailable (Tushare gated / Sina throttled)
china_breadth ok正常 7012026-09-14
china_cb ok正常 2512026-09-14
china_cgb_curve blocked已屏蔽 0— bond_china_yield blocked (non-CN IP / endpoint drift) — CGB curve context only
china_connect ok正常 1802026-09-14
china_credit ok正常 82026-08-01
china_einteraction ok正常 12026-09-14
china_filings failed失败 0— RuntimeError: china_filings: all exchanges failed — sse: HTTPConnectionPool(host='www.cnin
china_flows ok正常 32026-09-14
china_fund_issuance ok正常 182026-09-11
china_funding ok正常 23792026-09-14
china_holder_counts ok正常 12026-09-14
china_irm failed失败 0— RuntimeError: china_irm: every leg failed at transport level (7/7 names + velocity)
china_lhb ok正常 12026-09-14
china_macro ok正常 25402026-09-14
china_margin ok正常 1802026-09-11
china_margin_detail ok正常 12026-09-14
china_news ok正常 62026-09-14
china_news_wire ok正常 12026-09-14
china_official_corpora ok正常 12026-09-14
china_omo ok正常 12026-09-14
china_pboc ok正常 90182026-09-14
china_prices ok正常 6582026-09-14
china_property ok正常 7442026-09-14
china_qvix ok正常 44362026-09-14
china_reports ok正常 12026-09-14
china_sectors ok正常 1432212026-09-14
china_stocks ok正常 538512026-09-14
china_stocks_raw ok正常 493122026-09-14
china_trade_detail failed失败 0— RuntimeError: china_trade_detail: monthly index unreachable (HTTPConnectionPool(host='engl
china_tushare stale过期 12026-09-14
china_universe failed失败 0— ConnectionError: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn', port=443): Max
china_visits ok正常 12026-09-14
china_yield_spread ok正常 9852026-09-14
cleveland_nowcast ok正常 12026-09-14
clinicaltrials ok正常 12026-09-14
coinbase ok正常 392026-09-14
coingecko failed失败 0— HTTPError: 403 Client Error: Forbidden for url: https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/global
coinmetrics ok正常 612026-09-13
corp_bond_holdings ok正常 12026-09-13
cot ok正常 302026-09-08
crypto_universe ok正常 502026-09-14
defillama ok正常 52912026-09-14
deribit ok正常 62026-09-14
edgar_13f ok正常 12026-09-13
edgar_8k ok正常 12026-09-14
edgar_dilution ok正常 12026-09-14
edgar_trumpflow ok正常 12026-09-14
eia stale过期 255632026-09-04
etf_holdings ok正常 12026-09-13
farside ok正常 6852026-09-11
feargreed ok正常 31442026-09-14
fedboard_ebp stale过期 6432026-07-01
federal_register ok正常 12026-09-14
finnhub_altdata ok正常 12026-09-14
finnhub_transcripts ok正常 12026-09-14
finra_ats_transparency ok正常 12026-08-03
finra_corp_bonds ok正常 12026-09-13
finra_otc_nonats ok正常 12026-08-03
finra_short_volume ok正常 12026-09-11
flow_signals ok正常 02026-09-14
frbsf_sentiment ok正常 170322026-09-06
fred ok正常 6831912028-01-01
french ok正常 12012026-07-31
fundamentals ok正常 58202026-09-13
gaming_nj ok正常 0—
gaming_nv ok正常 0—
gaming_ny ok正常 0—
gaming_pgcb ok正常 0—
geo_revenue ok正常 12026-09-14
github_repos ok正常 12026-09-14
google_trends blocked已屏蔽 0— pytrends not installed — Google Trends lane skipped
grants_gov ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_ah_official ok正常 6332026-09-09
hk_ah_panel ok正常 57632026-09-14
hk_breadth ok正常 7102026-09-14
hk_cbbc ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_cbbc_sld ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_closes_deep ok正常 452026-09-14
hk_connect_channels ok正常 49612026-09-14
hk_full_breadth blocked已屏蔽 0— HK full main-board spot snapshot unavailable (Eastmoney flaky)
hk_gdelt ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_hkexnews ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_indices failed失败 0— RuntimeError: hk_indices: all HSTECH sources failed — sina: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='fina
hk_placements ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_prices ok正常 1762026-09-14
hk_property ok正常 23552026-09-07
hk_shorts_positions ok正常 12026-09-04
hk_shorts_turnover ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_southbound_holdings ok正常 12026-09-11
hk_stocks ok正常 193692026-09-14
hk_universe ok正常 12026-09-14
hk_valuation failed失败 0— RuntimeError: hk_valuation: no series resolved for any name — 0700.HK/pe: Failed to perfor
hkma ok正常 1002026-09-14
holdings ok正常 12026-09-13
huggingface ok正常 12026-09-14
ibkr_borrow ok正常 12026-09-13
imf_weo ok正常 12026-09-13
intl_etf ok正常 10352026-09-11
intl_macro ok正常 264372026-09-14
intl_prices ok正常 140542026-09-14
intl_universe failed失败 0— RuntimeError: intl_universe: no closes downloaded
intraday_flow_nightly ok正常 0—
jodi ok正常 7652026-06-01
kalshi_releases ok正常 12026-09-14
lbnl_queue blocked已屏蔽 0— lbnl_queue: no reachable Queued Up data file — https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/que
massive_stock_day ok正常 12026-09-14
mempool ok正常 342026-09-14
midcap_breadth ok正常 14562026-09-11
nyfed ok正常 12782026-09-11
ofac_sdn stale过期 12026-09-10
ofr ok正常 12026-09-13
ofr_fsi ok正常 607952026-09-09
okx ok正常 13932026-09-14
openfda ok正常 12026-09-14
openfigi ok正常 12026-09-14
options_flow_creds creds_presentcreds_present 0—
polygon_gex_accrual outside_leaseoutside_lease 0—
polygon_news ok正常 12026-09-14
prediction_markets ok正常 12026-09-13
quiver_appratings ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_bills ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_cnbc ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_congress ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_congressholdings ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_corpdonors ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_flights blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: plan-limited feed, last event 2025-07-23
quiver_govcontracts ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_house ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_insiders ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_lobbying ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_news ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_offexchange ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_patents ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_sec13f ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_sec13f_changes ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_senate ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_spacs blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: dead feed, last data 2023-12-18
quiver_trump ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_twitter blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: API discontinued (Twitter/X shut down free API 2023)
quiver_watchlist ok正常 12026-09-14
quiver_wsb ok正常 12026-09-14
rate_futures ok正常 642026-09-13
russell_breadth ok正常 9482026-09-11
sam_gov ok正常 12026-09-14
sbir_awards failed失败 0— SbirRateLimitError: SBIR public API refused the request with HTTP 403; the published limit
sec_capital_structure ok正常 12026-09-13
sec_capital_structure_companyfacts failed失败 0— CompanyFactsIntakeError: Company Facts external head witness is unreadable
sector_flows ok正常 112026-09-10
sector_holdings ok正常 12026-09-13
sentiment_aaii blocked已屏蔽 0— AAII blocks non-browser clients (403) — known limitation, not used by the regime engine
sentiment_naaim failed失败 0— ValueError: NAAIM since-inception workbook link not found on page
smallcap_breadth ok正常 14562026-09-11
sovereign ok正常 397422026-09-10
stock_fundamentals ok正常 12026-09-13
stock_prices ok正常 53522026-09-11
stocktwits ok正常 12026-09-14
symbol_directory ok正常 12026-09-14
tape_flow_episodes emptyempty 02026-08-13
tape_flow_etf-history ok正常 02024-08-09
tape_flow_forward ok正常 02026-08-12
treasury ok正常 182026-09-10
treasury_auctions ok正常 12026-09-13
tsa stale过期 28102026-09-10
uncertainty_indices ok正常 304562026-09-12
usaspending ok正常 502026-09-01
usaspending_awards ok正常 12026-09-14
usaspending_idv_graph ok正常 12026-09-14
usaspending_subawards ok正常 12026-09-14
wiki_pageviews ok正常 1439472026-09-12
wikipedia_btc ok正常 40922026-09-12
worldbank ok正常 522025-12-31
yahoo ok正常 464712026-09-14

A failed source never crashes the dashboard — affected signals just lose confidence until it heals. Generated 2026-09-14 23:10 UTC · AI daily brief · history & charts数据源失败绝不会让仪表盘崩溃 — 受影响的信号只是降低置信度，直到其恢复。 生成于 2026-09-14 23:10 UTC · AI每日简报 · 历史与图表