The Regime当前周期

Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively.混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。

⚠Capped at Mixed by the Risk Radar above.由上方风险雷达封顶为「混合」。

→ Green if volatility regime firms up (now 45/100); → Red if it deteriorates further.→ 若波动率环境转强（现 45/100）则转「绿」；进一步恶化则转「红」。

Goldilocks理想增长  ·  shifting — backdrop fading, not all-clear; see the risk read → Goldilocks理想增长  ·  转换中 — 背景趋弱，并非全面利好；参见风险解读 →
50 /100
Market state市场状态

Mixed混合▶

Risk-off 0避险 0 Mixed 50混合 50 Risk-on 100偏好 100
tick = today's score 标记 = 今日得分
Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. Growth scare / defensive rotation增长恐慌/防御轮动: 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Under the surface: Health Care / Staples / Utilities have held while Energy / Discretionary faded — a rotation read, not a high-beta cue. 表面之下：医疗保健／必需消费／公用事业相对坚挺，能源／可选消费走弱 — 这是轮动观察，并非追高贝塔的信号。
20-Year Bond auction (reopening) 07-22 20年期国债拍卖（续发行） 07-22
What could change the regime call什么会改变周期判断 ?Drawn only from today's regime-engine readings, shown as-is. Weakest support: the component still supporting the call — slope z -0.61 vs its ±0.45 cutoff, margin 0.16. Drift: how the model's regime probabilities moved over the last 5 sessions. How firmly held: 0–1 = probability behind the label × how much the inputs agree. Conditional context only — nothing here predicts a flip.仅取自今日周期引擎的读数，原样展示。最弱支撑：仍支撑当前判断的最弱分量 — 斜率 z -0.61，阈值 ±0.45（边际 0.16）。漂移方向：模型周期概率近 5 个交易日的变化。把握程度：0–1 = 标签背后的概率 × 输入一致度。仅为条件性参考 — 并非预测翻转。 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
About the regime label — not the 0-100 risk score.指上方周期标签——并非 0-100 风险评分。
Weakest support最弱支撑 the shopper-confidence trade is the shakiest evidence behind this call — cushion today: narrow 消费信心交易是当前判断中最不稳的一条证据 — 今日缓冲：偏窄
Drift漂移方向 the model's odds have been sliding toward Reflation, away from Goldilocks, for 5 sessions 近5个交易日概率正滑向再通胀、离开理想增长
How firmly held把握程度 loosely (0.17 / 1) — it wouldn't take much new evidence to change this label 较松（0.17 / 1）— 不需太多新证据即可改变该判断
Treat the label as provisional — lean on the risk score, not the regime name.该标签宜视为临时——以风险评分为主，勿依赖周期名称。
Goldilocks理想增长  ·  Shifting — not all-clear Goldilocks理想增长  ·  转换中 — 非全面利好 ⓘ
0 50 100 50 / 100
50 Mixed混合
YELLOW — Trade with caution 谨慎操作
Goldilocks now, but drifting toward Reflation — treat the label as backdrop, watch the risk score. 理想增长当前周期，但正向再通胀漂移 — 以标签为背景，关注风险评分。
Stagflation 滞胀 Reflation 再通胀 Goldilocks 理想增长 Growth-scare 增长恐慌 growth → 增长 → infl ↑ 通胀 ↑
Odds / quad各象限概率
Goldilocks 理想增长
9%
Reflation 再通胀
66%
Stagflation 滞胀
14%
Growth-scare 增长恐慌
10%
What could change the regime call什么会改变周期判断 ?Drawn only from today's regime-engine readings, shown as-is. Weakest support: the component still supporting the call — slope z -0.61 vs its ±0.45 cutoff, margin 0.16. Drift: how the model's regime probabilities moved over the last 5 sessions. How firmly held: 0–1 = probability behind the label × how much the inputs agree. Conditional context only — nothing here predicts a flip.仅取自今日周期引擎的读数，原样展示。最弱支撑：仍支撑当前判断的最弱分量 — 斜率 z -0.61，阈值 ±0.45（边际 0.16）。漂移方向：模型周期概率近 5 个交易日的变化。把握程度：0–1 = 标签背后的概率 × 输入一致度。仅为条件性参考 — 并非预测翻转。 Context — not a forecast情景参考 — 非预测
About the regime label — not the 0-100 risk score.指上方周期标签——并非 0-100 风险评分。
Weakest support最弱支撑 the shopper-confidence trade is the shakiest evidence behind this call — cushion today: narrow 消费信心交易是当前判断中最不稳的一条证据 — 今日缓冲：偏窄
Drift漂移方向 the model's odds have been sliding toward Reflation, away from Goldilocks, for 5 sessions 近5个交易日概率正滑向再通胀、离开理想增长
How firmly held把握程度 loosely (0.17 / 1) — it wouldn't take much new evidence to change this label 较松（0.17 / 1）— 不需太多新证据即可改变该判断
Treat the label as provisional — lean on the risk score, not the regime name.该标签宜视为临时——以风险评分为主，勿依赖周期名称。
Mixed / transition — the signals disagree. Trade smaller, favour quality, take profits faster; don't position aggressively. 混合 / 转换 — 信号分歧。缩小仓位、偏好质量、更快获利了结；勿激进布局。
→ → Green if volatility regime firms up (now 45/100); → Red if it deteriorates further. → 若波动率环境转强（现 45/100）则转「绿」；进一步恶化则转「红」。
15-session path 近 15 交易日走势 Score vs time综合评分 · 时序
Macro Dashboard宏观总览
as of 2026-07-172026-07-17
What To Do操作建议
Mixed — Trade with caution. Size small. 混合 — 谨慎操作，仓位缩小。
Composite 50/100 · 5 of 6 signals aligned · capped by the Risk Radar 综合评分 50/100 · 5/6 项信号一致 · 风险雷达封顶
Watch Volatility regime — the weakest leg (45/100). 关注波动率环境 — 最弱分项（45/100）。
Flip trigger if this rolls further 若继续下滑则触发翻转
Expect noise around FOMC rate decision — don’t read the first move as trend. 美联储议息会议前后噪音加大 — 勿将初动解读为趋势。
FOMC rate decision 07-29 · HIGH impact 美联储议息会议 07-29 · 高影响
Trim chasing; favour good entries over extended leaders. 减少追高；择优入场而非追逐已延展的龙头。
Growth scare / defensive rotation at 69 增长恐慌/防御轮动 69
Policy is quiet — nothing to position for. 政策平静 — 暂无需提前布局。
No active jawboning · last flip 2026-07-02 无积极发声 · 最近翻转 2026-07-02
Upcoming Events近期事件
This week本周
3 high-impact prints ahead 3 项高影响数据待发
20-Year 20年期国
Jul 22
MED 中
Initial 初请失业金
Jul 23
MED 中
10-Year 10年期国
Jul 23
MED 中
2-Year N2年期国债
Jul 27
MED 中
5-Year N5年期国债
Jul 27
MED 中

Release Radar数据发布雷达 ?Pre-print model projections for upcoming US macro releases (CPI, NFP, PCE, PPI). Comparison set is our own benchmark set (naive prior, trailing trend, Cleveland nowcast) — not street estimates. Display-only context; not investment advice; scored forward in public.即将公布美国宏观数据（CPI、NFP、PCE、PPI）的预测模型。对比基准为我方自有基准集（朴素先验、趋势追踪、克利夫兰预报），非街道估算。仅展示，非投资建议，正向评分公开记录。

Forward model · display-only · benchmarks · scored in public 前瞻模型 · 仅展示 · 基准对比 · 公开评分
Loading release projections… 加载发布预测中…
Fed Path联储路径
Two-sided — watch the tape 双向——观察市场走势
Outlook is two-sided: futures price about two hikes; hawkish and easing inputs are roughly balanced (2 vs 3) 前景双向：期货定价约两次加息；鹰派与宽松因素大体制衡（2对3）
Market prices ~2 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.63% → 4.04%) 市场为未来12个月定价约加息2次（基金利率 3.63% → 4.04%）
Policy: watch for repricing 政策：留意重定价
Market Sentiment市场情绪
PANIC 恐慌 EUPHORIA 亢奋
Neutral 中性
Composite at 51 · neutral zone 综合指数 51 · 中性区间
AI-linked names lagging while the rest holds up AI 相关个股落后，非 AI 板块相对支撑
Sector Temperature板块温度
Hot热门
Cybersecurity 网络安全 US Energy Complex 美国能源综合 Big Pharma 大型药企
Cold低迷
Insurance & Brokers 保险与经纪 Financials (Equal-Weight) 金融（等权） GLP-1 & Obesity GLP-1 与减肥药
Sector Heat板块热图
SPY
US Equities美股
743.29
-0.99%
QQQ
Nasdaq纳指
695.33
-1.50%
DJI
Dow Jones道琼斯
52,146.42
-0.77%
RUT
Small Cap小盘股
2,962.22
-0.42%
ES
S&P Futures标普期货
—
—
NQ
Nasdaq Futures纳指期货
—
—
Risk风险
Growth Scare / Defensive Rotation 增长恐慌/防御轮动
Intensity 69/100强度 69/100
Policy Monitor政策监测
Elevated — watch for repricing 警戒 — 警惕重定价
Market prices ~2 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.63% → 4.04%) 市场为未来12个月定价约加息2次（基金利率 3.63% → 4.04%）
Hawkish鹰派 3 speeches this week 本周3次政策发声
AI BriefAI简报
XLF USO GLD GS
5 High-Impact Items
Dominant channel: rates
5 high-impact signals across channels 5 条高影响信息
主导频道：利率
5 条高影响信号
A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source. 仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源。
Alerts Centre警报中心
1 FIRED 1 条触发
📅 Major event on deck — expect bigger swings either way 重大事件临近 — 双向波动或加大
Event-risk window: FOMC rate decision in 9 days — high two-sided volatility expected · positioned fragile. Not a sell si… 事件风险窗口：美联储议息会议（9 天后）—— 预计偏高的两面性波动 · 仓位脆弱。非卖出信号；按噪声调整仓位。
📰 We're raising our price target on Goldman Sachs after a blowout quarter, upbeat … 高盛季度业绩强劲、展望乐观，我们上调其目标价
CNBC - Markets · High impact高影响
Showing 1 of 1 in feed 显示 1 / 1 条
Data health数据健康度 ?Every data source this dashboard depends on. OK = fresh. STALE = no new data lately (signal confidence reduced automatically). FAILED = today's fetch broke (yesterday's data still used). BLOCKED = a known, documented limitation — not a malfunction. DEAD = failed 3+ runs and paused until it recovers.本仪表盘所依赖的每个数据源。OK = 新鲜。STALE = 近期无新数据（信号置信度已自动下调）。FAILED = 今日抓取失败（仍沿用昨日数据）。BLOCKED = 已知且有记录的限制 — 并非故障。DEAD = 连续 3 次以上失败，已暂停直至恢复。 7 need attention需关注 · 165 sources数据源 ▾
source数据源status状态rows行数last data最新数据note备注
beneficial_ownership ok正常 12026-07-19
bgeo ok正常 212026-07-17
bis ok正常 12026-07-18
breadth ok正常 5722026-07-17
broad_flows ok正常 32026-07-18
canada_breadth ok正常 7292026-07-17
canada_macro ok正常 732212026-07-17
canada_prices ok正常 62702026-07-18
canada_universe ok正常 12026-07-17
cboe_cor_vol ok正常 174382026-07-17
cboe_gex ok正常 112026-07-18
cboe_putcall ok正常 12026-07-18
cboe_skew ok正常 91862026-07-17
cboe_vix_futures ok正常 122026-07-17
cboe_vvix ok正常 50632026-07-17
china_a_valuation ok正常 104442026-07-17
china_breadth ok正常 7012026-07-17
china_cgb_curve ok正常 282026-07-17
china_connect ok正常 1802026-07-17
china_credit ok正常 62026-06-01
china_filings ok正常 12026-07-19
china_flows ok正常 42026-07-19
china_lhb ok正常 12026-07-19
china_macro ok正常 25252026-07-17
china_margin ok正常 1802026-07-16
china_margin_detail ok正常 12026-07-19
china_news ok正常 52026-07-18
china_news_wire ok正常 12026-07-19
china_official_corpora ok正常 12026-07-19
china_pboc ok正常 89772026-07-17
china_prices ok正常 6412026-07-19
china_property ok正常 80382026-07-17
china_qvix ok正常 43522026-07-17
china_sectors ok正常 1407282026-07-19
china_stocks ok正常 395952026-07-17
china_stocks_raw ok正常 395952026-07-17
china_tushare ok正常 12026-07-19
china_universe ok正常 12026-07-17
china_yield_spread ok正常 9442026-07-17
cleveland_nowcast ok正常 12026-07-18
clinicaltrials ok正常 12026-07-18
coinbase ok正常 312026-07-18
coingecko ok正常 12026-07-18
coinmetrics ok正常 702026-07-17
corp_bond_holdings ok正常 12026-07-18
cot ok正常 302026-07-14
defillama ok正常 51752026-07-18
deribit ok正常 62026-07-18
edgar_13f ok正常 12026-07-18
edgar_8k ok正常 12026-07-19
edgar_dilution ok正常 12026-07-19
edgar_trumpflow ok正常 12026-07-19
eia ok正常 254592026-07-10
etf_holdings ok正常 12026-07-18
farside ok正常 6462026-07-17
feargreed ok正常 30862026-07-18
fedboard_ebp stale过期 6422026-06-01
federal_register ok正常 12026-07-18
finnhub_altdata failed失败 0— RuntimeError: finnhub_altdata: no rows from 120 tickers (errors=120)
finnhub_transcripts ok正常 12026-07-18
finra_ats_transparency ok正常 12026-06-08
finra_corp_bonds ok正常 12026-07-18
finra_short_volume ok正常 12026-07-17
flow_signals ok正常 02026-07-19
frbsf_sentiment ok正常 169762026-07-12
fred ok正常 6738152028-01-01
french ok正常 11992026-05-31
fundamentals ok正常 57812026-07-18
gaming_nj ok正常 0—
gaming_nv ok正常 0—
gaming_ny ok正常 0—
gaming_pgcb ok正常 0—
github_repos ok正常 12026-07-18
grants_gov blocked已屏蔽 0— GRANTS_GOV_API_KEY not set
hk_ah_official ok正常 5952026-07-17
hk_ah_panel ok正常 57222026-07-17
hk_breadth ok正常 7102026-07-17
hk_cbbc ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_cbbc_sld ok正常 12026-07-19
hk_closes_deep ok正常 422026-07-17
hk_connect_channels ok正常 48792026-07-17
hk_full_breadth blocked已屏蔽 0— HK full main-board spot snapshot unavailable (Eastmoney flaky)
hk_gdelt ok正常 12026-07-19
hk_hkexnews ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_indices ok正常 14522026-07-17
hk_placements ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_prices ok正常 1702026-07-19
hk_property ok正常 23392026-07-13
hk_shorts_positions ok正常 12026-07-10
hk_shorts_turnover ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_southbound_holdings ok正常 12026-07-17
hk_stocks ok正常 34022026-07-17
hk_universe ok正常 12026-07-19
hk_valuation ok正常 3662026-07-19
hkma ok正常 1002026-07-17
holdings ok正常 12026-07-18
huggingface ok正常 12026-07-18
imf_weo ok正常 12026-07-18
intl_etf ok正常 10352026-07-17
intl_macro ok正常 260382026-07-17
intl_prices ok正常 173652026-07-18
intl_universe failed失败 0— RuntimeError: intl_universe: no closes downloaded
intraday_flow_nightly ok正常 0—
jodi ok正常 6832026-04-01
kalshi_releases ok正常 12026-07-18
lbnl_queue failed失败 0— RuntimeError: lbnl_queue: emp.lbl.gov unreachable (Cloudflare WAF); the committed seed JSO
massive_stock_day failed失败 0— RuntimeError: massive_stock_day: no_creds
mempool ok正常 332026-07-18
midcap_breadth ok正常 14542026-07-17
nyfed ok正常 12712026-07-17
ofr ok正常 12026-07-18
ofr_fsi ok正常 604352026-07-15
okx ok正常 13932026-07-18
openfda ok正常 12026-07-18
openfigi ok正常 12026-07-18
options_flow_creds no_creds缺凭证 0—
polygon_gex_accrual ok正常 161107—
polygon_news ok正常 12026-07-18
prediction_markets ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_appratings ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_bills ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_cnbc ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_congress ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_congressholdings ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_corpdonors ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_flights blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: plan-limited feed, last event 2025-07-23
quiver_govcontracts ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_house ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_insiders ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_lobbying ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_news ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_offexchange ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_patents ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_sec13f ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_sec13f_changes ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_senate ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_spacs blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: dead feed, last data 2023-12-18
quiver_trump ok正常 12026-07-18
quiver_twitter blocked已屏蔽 0— tombstone: API discontinued (Twitter/X shut down free API 2023)
quiver_watchlist ok正常 12026-07-19
quiver_wsb ok正常 12026-07-18
rate_futures ok正常 632026-07-17
sam_gov blocked已屏蔽 0— SAM_API_KEY not set
sector_flows ok正常 112026-07-16
sector_holdings ok正常 12026-07-18
sentiment_aaii ok正常 212026-07-15
sentiment_naaim ok正常 10452026-07-15
smallcap_breadth ok正常 14542026-07-17
sovereign ok正常 395382026-07-16
stock_fundamentals ok正常 12026-07-18
stock_prices ok正常 44002026-07-17
stocktwits ok正常 12026-07-18
symbol_directory ok正常 12026-07-19
tape_flow_episodes emptyempty 02026-07-18
tape_flow_etf-history ok正常 02021-09-29
tape_flow_forward ok正常 02026-07-17
treasury ok正常 212026-07-16
treasury_auctions ok正常 12026-07-18
tsa ok正常 27542026-07-16
uncertainty_indices ok正常 303422026-07-17
usaspending ok正常 502026-07-01
wiki_pageviews ok正常 1456362026-07-17
wikipedia_btc ok正常 40352026-07-17
worldbank ok正常 522025-12-31
yahoo ok正常 1740602026-07-19

A failed source never crashes the dashboard — affected signals just lose confidence until it heals. Generated 2026-07-19 22:28 UTC · AI daily brief · history & charts数据源失败绝不会让仪表盘崩溃 — 受影响的信号只是降低置信度，直到其恢复。 生成于 2026-07-19 22:28 UTC · AI每日简报 · 历史与图表