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Macro Signals宏观信号

Every gauge behind the macro dashboard — the cycle, real-time conditions, liquidity, sentiment, positioning and the dollar — each with what it means right now. These readings feed the system's context layer; none of them alone drives a buy or sell call. Machine-readable copy: macro_signals.json. 宏观仪表盘背后的全部量表 — 周期、实时状况、流动性、情绪、持仓与美元 — 每一项都附有当下含义。这些读数进入系统的背景层；任何单项都不会直接触发买卖 决定。机器可读版本见 macro_signals.json。

Right now当下

Mixed signals — hold what works, add slowly.信号混杂 — 持有有效仓位，谨慎加仓。
As of数据截至 2026-07-17
Growth增长
FALLING下行 ?Growth dial. Score −1..+1 maps to 0..100 on the arc. Built from market prices (leading) plus economic data confirmation.增长刻度盘。分数−1..+1映射为弧上0..100。由市场价格（领先）加经济数据确认构建。
Inflation通胀
RISING上行 ?Inflation dial. Score −1..+1 maps to 0..100. High inflation (right) is an economic headwind for equities.通胀刻度盘。分数−1..+1映射至0..100。高通胀（右侧）对股票为逆风。
Fear / Greed恐惧/贪婪
Neutral中性 ?Fear/Greed composite dial (0=Extreme Fear, 100=Extreme Greed). Wide multi-indicator composite. Technical receipts in the Mood section below.恐惧/贪婪合成指针（0=极度恐惧，100=极度贪婪）。宽幅多指标合成。技术细节见下方情绪板块。
VIX levelVIX 水平
normal正常normal正常 ?VIX percentile (0=lowest ever, 100=highest ever). Regime bands: calm <16, normal 16-20, stressed 20-28, crisis >28. Technical detail in VIX section below.VIX百分位（0=历史最低，100=历史最高）。区间：平静<16，正常16-20，受压20-28，危机>28。技术细节见下方VIX板块。
Market state:市场状态： Yellow黄灯

Growth & the cycle增长与周期

recovery复苏
Growth is turning back up — early-cycle tailwind.增长回升 — 周期初段顺风。
No recession signal无衰退信号
?Recession signal: Conference Board 3 Ds — depth, duration, diffusion. Conditions: depth=✗ breadth=✗. Shadow phase: — (alternate publication lag). Out-of-sample (LORO 1985+): 2/3 caught, median lead ~10.5mo, 5 false alarms衰退信号：会议委员会三D — 深度、持续、扩散。条件：深度=✗ 广度=✗. 影子相位：—. 样本外（留一衰退1985+）：2/3 已捕捉，中位领先~10.5月，5次误报

Tier momentum层级动量 6-month6个月

▲ Leading领先 turning up转强
?Leading tier: mom6=+0.33, diffusion=75, n=4领先 层：mom6=+0.33, 扩散=75, n=4
▼ Coincident同步 turning down转弱
?Coincident tier: mom6=-0.20, diffusion=100, n=2同步 层：mom6=-0.20, 扩散=100, n=2
▲ Lagging滞后 turning up转强
?Lagging tier: mom6=+0.69, diffusion=50, n=4滞后 层：mom6=+0.69, 扩散=50, n=4

Real-time conditions实时状况

Recession risk衰退风险
5/100
odds the economy tips over the next year未来一年经济衰退的可能性
?Sahm: 0.07 · NY Fed prob: 54% · Excess bond premium: -0.30萨姆规则: 0.07 · 纽约联储曲线概率: 54% · 超额债券溢价: -0.30
Drawdown risk回撤风险
16/100
odds of a ≥10% index drop in ~3 months vs normal约3个月内指数回撤≥10%的相对概率
?P(dd≥10%/63d): 10% · Base rate: 19%概率(≥10%/63日): 10% · 基准概率: 19%
Financial conditions金融条件
loose宽松
how easy money is to get资金松紧程度
?NFCI: -0.54 · Percentile: 11% · Trend: looseninglooseningNFCI: -0.54 · 百分位: 11% · 趋势: looseningloosening
System stress系统压力
calm平静
stress inside the financial system (OFR)金融体系内部压力(OFR)
?OFR FSI: -2.62 · Top channel: — · CP funding: —OFR FSI: -2.62 · 主要渠道: — · 商业票据融资: —
Growth right now当前增长
+1.7%
live estimate of this quarter's growth本季度增长的实时估计
?GDPNow: +1.7% · WEI: +2.61GDPNow: +1.7% · 周度经济指数: +2.61
Inflation right now当前通胀
0.2%
slow-moving prices are still rising at this pace粘性物价仍以此速度上涨
?Sticky CPI (ann.): 0.2% · Flexible CPI (ann.): 0.2%粘性CPI(年化): 0.2% · 弹性CPI(年化): 0.2%
Jobs & activity就业与活动
labor firm就业稳固
layoffs steady裁员平稳
?Initial claims YoY: -3.3% · Indeed postings 3m: -1.6% · Withheld taxes YoY: +4.1%初请同比: -3.3% · Indeed招聘3月: -1.6% · 预扣税同比: +4.1%
Risk appetite风险偏好
risk-on偏好风险
how much risk investors are reaching for投资者的冒险意愿
?RORO: +0.54 · VRP: +7.4 · VIX term: 0.91 · Stock-bond corr: +0.56RORO: +0.54 · 方差风险溢价: +7.4 · VIX期限: 0.91 · 股债相关: +0.56
Capitulation投降信号
0/3
distress-selling signal — contrarian极度悲观信号 — 逆向参考

Money & liquidity — the tide资金与流动性 — 资金潮 ?Net money in the system: Fed balance sheet minus reverse-repo minus Treasury account (WALCL−RRP−TGA). Expanding is historically the most reliable tailwind for risk assets; contracting is a headwind.系统净资金：美联储资产负债表减去逆回购减去财政部账户(WALCL−RRP−TGA)。扩张历史上是风险资产最可靠的顺风；收缩为逆风。

The money tide is rising — historically the most reliable tailwind.资金潮上涨 — 历史上最可靠的顺风。 +131bn / 4wk十亿 / 4周
575059336116Jul 2024Jul 2026+5920bn

Credit & market participation信用与市场参与度 ?High-yield spread: the market's early smoke detector for credit stress. Participation = % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day average. Strong index + collapsing breadth = a fragile rally.高收益利差：信用压力的市场早期烟雾探测器。参与度=标普500高于50日均线的股票占比。指数强而广度崩塌=脆弱涨势。

Credit calm, participation healthy — no smoke.信用平稳，参与度健康 — 无警讯。
Jul 2024Jul 20262.7%365%

Mood — Fear / Greed情绪 — 恐惧/贪婪 ?Wide multi-indicator composite combining market momentum, volatility, breadth, safe-haven flows, junk demand and several sentiment surveys. 0=Extreme Fear, 100=Extreme Greed.宽幅多指标合成，结合市场动量、波动率、广度、避险流、垃圾需求与多项情绪调查。0=极度恐惧，100=极度贪婪。

51
/ 100
Neutral中性
11 legs driving it项指标合成
Fear恐惧Greed贪婪
What's driving it most主要驱动因素
NAAIM exposureNAAIM 仓位敞口
+1.2
Junk demand (HY OAS)高收益需求（HY 利差）
+1.0
52-week strength (new-high ratio)52周强势（新高比例）
+0.5
Full breakdown ▸完整拆解 ▸
Leg指标 Value数值 State状态 Obs观测数
SPX momentum (vs 125d MA)标普动量（对比125日均线） 5.12 % above/below MA +0.41 8423
52-week strength (new-high ratio)52周强势（新高比例） 0.89 ratio 0-1 +0.47 14957
McClellan oscillator麦克莱伦振荡器 -2.80 oscillator -0.06 16194
Junk demand (HY OAS)高收益需求（HY 利差） 2.71 OAS bps +0.97 7715
Safe haven demand (SPY − TLT 20d)避险需求（SPY−TLT 20日） 2.31 20d ret diff % +0.27 6010
VIX levelVIX 水平 18.80 VIX points +0.09 9204
VIX trend (20d change)VIX 趋势（20日变动） 2.37 VIX 20d delta -0.45 9184
VIX term structure (VIX/VIX3M)VIX 期限结构（VIX/VIX3M） 0.91 ratio (>=1=backwardation) -0.07 5032
CBOE SKEW (tail risk pricing)CBOE SKEW（尾部风险定价） 147.30 SKEW index -2.08 9186
NAAIM exposureNAAIM 仓位敞口 95.60 % exposure 0-200 +1.20 1045
Insider demand (quarterly net buy $)内部人需求（季度净购入） -17.80 net USD billions -0.37 81
Context tiles (short history):背景小块（历史较短）:
CBOE put/call ratioCBOE 看跌/看涨比率: 1.602 AAII sentiment (bullish %)AAII 情绪（看多占比）: 44.9
Fear ↔ Euphoria (RORO read)恐惧↔欣喜（RORO侧读） ?Two composites exist deliberately. Fear/Greed is the wide aggregate. Fear↔Euphoria is the RORO-side read (risk-on/risk-off positioning). They often agree; when they diverge, the divergence itself is the signal.两个合成指标并存有意为之。恐惧/贪婪是宽幅综合。恐惧↔欣喜是RORO侧读（风险开/关持仓）。通常一致；背离时背离本身即是信号。
89 Greed贪婪 diverges背离

Sentiment context only — display-only composite of public market indicators. Never scored, never feeds the regime engine, no forward claim. Greed/fear readings are not contrarian signals without regime context.仅为情绪参考 — 公开市场指标的仅展示合成。不计分，不进入周期引擎，无前瞻性判断。贪婪/恐惧读数若无周期背景，不构成反向信号。

Who's positioned how谁如何持仓

Who / what谁 / 什么Where they stand当前位置
S&P 500 futures speculators标普500 期货投机者
normal正常 — nothing notable无显著
10-yr Treasury futures speculators10年期美债 期货投机者
extreme short极度做空 — everyone is already short — most extreme in our records; reversal fuel大家都已做空 — 我们记录中最极端；反转燃料
US Dollar futures speculators美元 期货投机者
leaning long偏向做多 — above normal, nothing extreme高于正常，但不极端
Gold futures speculators黄金 期货投机者
crowded long拥挤做多 — everyone is already long — crowded; late to join大家都已做多 — 拥挤；加入已晚
Pro fund managers专业基金经理
crowded invested拥挤重仓 — managers are nearly all-in — crowded; late to join基金经理几乎满仓 — 拥挤；加入已晚
Options hedging mood期权对冲情绪 heavy hedging大量对冲 — lots of downside protection being bought — fear elevated大量买入下行保护 — 恐慌升高
Market-maker effect做市商效应 amplifying swings放大波动 — market-makers' hedging adds fuel to moves — expect bigger swings both ways做市商对冲为波动添柴 — 预期双向波动更大
Fear gauge恐慌指标
normal正常 — nothing notable无显著

VIX — volatility levelVIX — 波动率水平

18.77 +2.04 (+12.2%) normal正常normal正常
Term structure:期限结构: 0.91 — contango正向contango正向
Calm <16平静<16 Normal 16–20正常16–20 Stressed 20–28受压20–28 Crisis >28危机>28
161922Apr 20Jul 1718.8

Commodities & macro tape大宗商品与宏观盘面

Instrument标的 Trend趋势 3-mo3月 Off 52w high距52周高
Gold黄金 below trend趋势下方 ?RSI(14): 40 · 50d: belowRSI(14): 40 · 50日: 下方 -12.7% -24.6%
Crude Oil原油 above trend趋势上方 ?RSI(14): 63 · 50d: aboveRSI(14): 63 · 50日: 上方 -16.4% -26.0%
Copper铜 above trend趋势上方 ?RSI(14): 52 · 50d: belowRSI(14): 52 · 50日: 下方 +6.2% -5.6%
US Dollar美元 above trend趋势上方 ?RSI(14): 52 · 50d: aboveRSI(14): 52 · 50日: 上方 +2.3% -0.8%

Currencies & the dollar货币与美元

Dollar regime美元周期 ?Desk legs — real yield z: +0.94 · Fed path: +40bp to 12m · REER gap: +0.3% · COT pctile: 75 · trend legs up: 4/4 · liquidity: soft · smile confirmation: medium操盘台分项 — 实际利率z: +0.94 · 美联储路径: +40bp/12月 · REER缺口: +0.3% · COT百分位: 75 · 趋势上行: 4/4 · 流动性: soft · 微笑确认: medium

Dollar strong — the US is out-earning the world. 美元走强 — 美国增长领先全球。
Desk read: 操盘台读数： mixed backdropmixed backdrop · based on 基于3 desk reads项读数
held 已持续92 days天

Strength vs dollar兑美元强弱 1-month

GBP
+1.9%
BRL
+1.9%
CAD
+1.3%
AUD
+1.3%
MXN
+0.2%
CHF
+0.1%
CNH
+0.1%
USD
—
% move vs the dollar. Trailing move, not a forecast.兑美元%变动。仅为近端走势，非预测。

Stress patterns压力形态

Carry Unwind / Yen-Funded Deleveraging 套息平仓 / 日元融资去杠杆 12/100 ?Stress intensity 12/100 · At this stress level, 15% of past cases saw the adverse move (base rate 11%, 95% CI 9–22%, n=1091)压力强度 12/100 · 同等压力的历史案例中15%出现不利走势（基率11%，95%区间9–22%，n=1091） EM Crisis / Capital Flight 新兴市场危机 / 资本外逃 28/100 ?Stress intensity 28/100 · At this stress level, 29% of past cases saw the adverse move (base rate 27%, 95% CI 17–46%, n=733). Managed/intervened regime truncates history — illustrative only.压力强度 28/100 · 同等压力的历史案例中29%出现不利走势（基率27%，95%区间17–46%，n=733）。受管理/干预体制截断历史 — 仅供示意。

Offshore yuan (CNH)离岸人民币 (CNH)

Offshore yuan: no unusual pressure 离岸人民币：无异常压力
?CNH basis: -40bpCNH基差: -40bp

Dollar transmission美元传导

A stronger dollar is pressing on:美元走强正压制：
US equitiesUS equities EM equitiesEM equities GoldGold CopperCopper 10y Treasury10y Treasury BitcoinBitcoin
Helping:助力：
Oil (WTI)Oil (WTI) ?Correlation to the broad dollar: GC=F -0.75 · HG=F -0.66 · SPY -0.43 · CL=F +0.42 · EEM -0.37 · UST10 -0.35 · BTC -0.26与广义美元的相关性: GC=F -0.75 · HG=F -0.66 · SPY -0.43 · CL=F +0.42 · EEM -0.37 · UST10 -0.35 · BTC -0.26

What changed近期变化

2026-07-20 Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring 三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
2026-07-19 Triple-red cleared: safe-haven function may be restoring 三重下跌解除：避险功能可能恢复
2026-06-23 Dollar regime → US growth premium 美元格局 → 美国增长溢价
2026-06-17 Dollar regime → Global reflation 美元格局 → 全球再通胀
2026-05-01 Dollar regime → US booming 美元格局 → 美国强势
Full currency board → forex.html完整货币面板 → forex.html

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