Risk-on — but it's one crowded trade风险偏好高涨——但这是一笔拥挤的交易
Most assets are rising together, driven by the same force.多数资产同涨，由同一股力量驱动。
Careful: different markets are one bet right now — they can fall together too.小心：不同市场当前是同一笔押注——下跌时也会一起跌。
Updated更新于 2026-07-20
One bet?同一笔押注？
Markets moving together各市场同步运动
A market-weather read, not a buy list — in our tests, trend timing only matched simple buy-and-hold after costs.这是市场天气判读，不是买入清单——测试中趋势择时扣费后仅与简单买入持有持平。?
§01
What's trending趋势行情
which assets are rising or falling哪些资产在上行或下行
7 rising上行2 falling下行of/共 13
Asset资产
Trend趋势
Strength强度
3m3月
6m6月
12m12月
S&P 500标普500
Equity股票
▲ Rising上行
+6%
+8%
+20%
S&P 500标普500Equity股票
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+5.9%
6m return6月收益+8.0%
12m return12月收益+20.1%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Small caps小盘股
Equity股票
▲ Rising上行
+9%
+12%
+34%
Small caps小盘股Equity股票
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+8.9%
6m return6月收益+11.9%
12m return12月收益+34.1%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
High yield高收益债
Credit信用
▲ Rising上行
+0%
+1%
+5%
High yield高收益债Credit信用
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+0.2%
6m return6月收益+0.8%
12m return12月收益+5.0%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Copper铜
Commodity商品
▲ Rising上行
+3%
+9%
+8%
Copper铜Commodity商品
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+3.3%
6m return6月收益+9.3%
12m return12月收益+8.3%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
US dollar美元
Dollar美元
▲ Rising上行
+2%
+2%
+4%
US dollar美元Dollar美元
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+2.2%
6m return6月收益+2.0%
12m return12月收益+3.5%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Intl stocks (DM)国际发达股市
Equity股票
▲ Rising上行
+2%
+6%
+21%
Intl stocks (DM)国际发达股市Equity股票
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+1.9%
6m return6月收益+5.7%
12m return12月收益+20.9%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
EM stocks新兴市场股市
Equity股票
▲ Rising上行
+2%
+10%
+32%
EM stocks新兴市场股市Equity股票
Score动量得分+1.000
3m return3月收益+1.9%
6m return6月收益+10.2%
12m return12月收益+31.9%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Crude oil原油
Commodity商品
◦ Flat走平
-13%
+41%
+28%
Crude oil原油Commodity商品
Score动量得分+0.330
3m return3月收益-12.8%
6m return6月收益+40.8%
12m return12月收益+28.1%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Gold黄金
Commodity商品
◦ Flat走平
-15%
-18%
+18%
Gold黄金Commodity商品
Score动量得分-0.330
3m return3月收益-14.8%
6m return6月收益-18.4%
12m return12月收益+18.1%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Silver白银
Commodity商品
◦ Flat走平
-25%
-41%
+45%
Silver白银Commodity商品
Score动量得分-0.330
3m return3月收益-24.8%
6m return6月收益-40.8%
12m return12月收益+44.6%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Long Treasuries长期美债
Rates利率
◦ Flat走平
-1%
-2%
+3%
Long Treasuries长期美债Rates利率
Score动量得分-0.330
3m return3月收益-1.3%
6m return6月收益-2.5%
12m return12月收益+3.4%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
10Y Treasury10年美债
Rates利率
▼ Falling下行
-2%
-3%
-1%
10Y Treasury10年美债Rates利率
Score动量得分-1.000
3m return3月收益-2.0%
6m return6月收益-3.0%
12m return12月收益-1.1%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Bitcoin比特币
Crypto加密
▼ Falling下行
-16%
-11%
-38%
Bitcoin比特币Crypto加密
Score动量得分-1.000
3m return3月收益-16.4%
6m return6月收益-11.1%
12m return12月收益-38.2%
Method方法Sign of average 3/6/12m return. Most-recent week skipped.3/6/12月收益符号均值。跳过最近一周。
Trend = sign of the trailing 3/6/12-month return averaged across horizons. Context — not a buy list.趋势 = 过去3/6/12个月收益符号均值。仅作背景，非买入清单。
§02
One trade or many?一笔交易还是多笔？
how much markets move as one市场同涨同跌的程度
Markets moving as one trade. Diversification is thin right now.市场如同一笔交易，分散化效果薄弱。
How synced markets are — last 2 years市场同步程度 — 近2年?
Moving together now:当前同步：US stocks美股Copper铜Dollar美元
▶The numbers详细数据
US
Crypto
China
HK
Commodities
Dollar
US
1.00
0.44
0.41
0.22
0.53
0.50
Crypto
0.44
1.00
0.01
-0.03
0.25
0.42
China
0.41
0.01
1.00
0.30
0.37
0.10
HK
0.22
-0.03
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.11
Commodities
0.53
0.25
0.37
0.14
1.00
0.44
Dollar
0.50
0.42
0.10
0.11
0.44
1.00
Concentration rises when assets move together — good for momentum, bad for diversification.当各资产同步运动时集中度上升——对动量有利，对分散化不利。
§03
Who moves first?谁先动？
who tends to move first谁通常先动
US close美股收盘→Asia, next day亚洲市场（次日）tentative暂定
US stocks美股 → Hong Kong港股1d lag滞后
Dollar美元 → Hong Kong港股1d lag滞后
Bitcoin比特币 → Hong Kong港股1d lag滞后
▶Technical detail技术细节
Leader → Follower领先 → 滞后
Lag滞后
r
US stocks美股 → Hong Kong港股
1d
+0.34
Dollar美元 → Hong Kong港股
1d
+0.29
Bitcoin比特币 → Hong Kong港股
1d
+0.30
US stocks美股 → China AA股
1d
+0.24
Bitcoin比特币 → China AA股
1d
+0.20
Mostly the clock, not prophecy — the US closes before Asia opens.主要是时区效应，而非预言——美股收盘早于亚洲开盘。
§04
Do bonds & currencies agree with stocks?债券与汇率是否与股票一致？
do the fast markets agree with stocks?快速市场是否认同股市判断