Global Market Cycles全球市场周期

Where every market stands各市场所处位置

Eleven national equity markets on one clock — the US, UK, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, Canada, South Korea and Australia. The y-axis is a cycle oscillator (0–100): high = extended near record highs, low = washed-out deep below them. Nine markets are engine-backed (country_cycles pos_v2); US and Europe show analyst estimates until their proxies are added to the engine. Observed history (solid), projection (dashed + uncertainty cone), and curated valuations with as-of dates — so you see not just when in the cycle each market sits, but how cheap or rich it is there. Projections here are windows, not certainties — re-drawn nightly as new data lands.十一个国家股市同框 —— 美国、英国、欧洲、日本、中国、香港、台湾、印度、加拿大、韩国与澳大利亚。纵轴是周期振荡器(0–100):高=接近历史高点(拉伸),低=深跌超卖。九个市场使用引擎数据(country_cycles pos_v2);美国与欧洲的代理 ETF 尚未入引擎,显示分析师估算。实线为历史,虚线(含锥形区间)为预测,并附带标注截止日期的精选估值 —— 让你不仅看到每个市场处于周期的哪个阶段,还能看到它在该位置是便宜还是昂贵。这里的预测是时间窗口,而非确定性结论——每晚随新数据重新计算。

As of截至 …

Cross-market overlay跨市场叠加

History历史 Projection预测 Uncertainty不确定性

Risk regime today今日风险状态

Same-day read - not the cycle position above当日判读,不是上方的周期位置

US stocks美股

Read being updated判读更新中

Get ready准备行动

Hong Kong香港

Risk-off风险规避

Stand aside暂时观望

Display-only and lighter than the US read: HK has no leading Risk Radar, no VIX term structure (VHSI stands in), and the downturn gauges are uncalibrated. HK is heavily globally driven — US/EM beta and the HKD peg. Context, not a forecast.仅供展示,较美股版更轻量:港股没有领先的风险雷达、没有 VIX 期限结构(以 VHSI 替代),下行指标未经校准。港股高度受全球驱动 — 美股/新兴市场贝塔与港元联汇。是背景,而非预测。
China中国

Risk-off风险规避

Stand aside暂时观望

Display-only and lighter than the US read: China has no leading Risk Radar, no VIX term structure (QVIX + margin froth stand in), no HY credit spread, and the downturn gauges are uncalibrated. It reads what has already turned — context, not a forecast.仅供展示,较美股版更轻量:A股没有领先的风险雷达、没有 VIX 期限结构(以 QVIX 与融资拥挤替代)、没有高收益信用利差,且下行指标未经校准。它读取的是已经转向的信号 — 是背景,而非预测。

Where they stand today今日所处位置

Valuation map估值地图

forward P/E × cycle position — cheap·washed-out ↘ rich·at-highs预期市盈率 × 周期位置 —— 便宜·超卖 ↘ 贵·高位

Market scorecards市场记分卡

Tap any card — or its line on the chart — to focus it点击任意卡片(或图中曲线)以聚焦