Risk-on风险偏好
World risk appetite全球风险偏好
Dragged by 🇯🇵 Japan · 🇪🇺 Eurozone · 🇰🇷 South Korea拖累：日本 · 欧元区 · 韩国
The world right now当下全球
7 economies; most read growth down, inflation up. In USD, South Korea leads (+105% 12m) and India lags (-14% 12m). US still leading the world. World risk appetite risk-on (60/100) — dragged by Japan, Eurozone.7 个经济体，多数为增长走弱、通胀走高。以美元计，韩国 领先（+105% 12m），印度 落后（-14% 12m）。美国仍领跑全球。全球风险偏好风险偏好（60/100）——受日本、欧元区拖累。
US vs the World美国 vs 全球
1/7 ex-US markets ahead非美市场领先
🇺🇸 US leads美国领先
World leads全球领先 🌍
Dominant regime主导周期
growth down, inflation up增长走弱、通胀走高
7 economies经济体
USD leader美元领涨
🇰🇷 KR
+105% in USD美元计
Recession-watch衰退观察
1
of共 7 economies经济体
Avg correlation平均相关性
0.49
cross-market, lower = safer跨市场，越低越分散
What's moving now?当下在动什么？Every market read straight from its price — hottest first.每个市场直接读自其价格——最紧迫者在前。
World markets — turns & rotation全球市场 — 拐点与轮动 ?Each market's trend, read straight from its price action — climbing, stretched, topping out, breaking, or falling. The hottest markets sort to the top, and every card tells you what to do. The "pullback risk" tag is a separate heads-up that a drop may be brewing — from US rates, the currency, or a stretched price. It is context only, never a forecast, and never ranks the markets. Hover any card for the full read.每个市场的趋势，直接读自其价格走势——上行、伸展、见顶、破位或下跌。最紧迫的市场排在最前，每张卡都会告诉你该怎么做。「回撤风险」标签是另一重提示，表示可能正在酝酿一轮下跌——来自美债利率、汇率或价格过度伸展。它仅供参考，绝非预测，也不参与市场排名。将鼠标悬停在任意卡片上可查看完整解读。
as of截至 2026-09-14
South Korea韩国
Crash damage unresolved崩跌损伤未修复
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
79/100
A fast, deep selloff still dominates the 20-day tape. Treat the trend as broken until repair signals confirm otherwise. Risk remains high — wait for repair.
近20日走势仍由快速深跌主导。在修复信号确认前，应视为趋势已破坏。 风险仍高 — 等待修复确认。
Since 09-11 · Peak 06-22 · 20-day +1.4% · Off high -24.2% · Momentum improving · ≥5% dip in a month ~29% vs ~29% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 09-11 · 见顶 06-22 · 20日 +1.4% · 距高 -24.2% · 动能 转强 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约29%（基准约29%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇰🇷
South Korea韩国
KR
Crash damage unresolved崩跌损伤未修复
Risk remains high — wait for repair风险仍高 — 等待修复确认
20d20日 +1.4%
off-high距高 -24.2%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Watch留意
US rate shock — watch, don't chase美债利率冲击——观察，勿追高
Japan日本
Breaking down正在破位
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
58/100
It ran up, then cracked: price has snapped below its recent floor and momentum rolled over. Reduce risk now.
先急涨、后破位：价格跌穿近期支撑，动能掉头向下。 立即降低风险。
Since 08-31 · Peak 06-25 · 20-day -9.1% · Off high -13.0% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~31% vs ~31% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-31 · 见顶 06-25 · 20日 -9.1% · 距高 -13.0% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约31%（基准约31%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇯🇵
Japan日本
JP
Breaking down正在破位
Reduce risk now立即降低风险
20d20日 -9.1%
off-high距高 -13.0%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Calm平静
nothing to do无需操作
Australia澳大利亚
Turn risk拐点风险
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
23/100
Still up high, but the first cracks are showing — momentum is fading right near the top. Early breakdown signs — tighten stops.
仍在高位，但已现初步裂痕——顶部附近动能正在减弱。 出现早期破位迹象 — 收紧止损。
Since 08-17 · Peak 08-06 · 20-day -3.5% · Off high -5.6% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~15% vs ~15% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-17 · 见顶 08-06 · 20日 -3.5% · 距高 -5.6% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约15%（基准约15%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇦🇺
Australia澳大利亚
AU
Turn risk拐点风险
Early breakdown signs — tighten stops出现早期破位迹象 — 收紧止损
20d20日 -3.5%
off-high距高 -5.6%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Calm平静
nothing to do无需操作
Eurozone欧元区
Turn risk拐点风险
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
50/100
Still up high, but the first cracks are showing — momentum is fading right near the top. Early breakdown signs — tighten stops.
仍在高位，但已现初步裂痕——顶部附近动能正在减弱。 出现早期破位迹象 — 收紧止损。
Since 08-14 · Peak 08-11 · 20-day -2.9% · Off high -3.2% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~20% vs ~20% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-14 · 见顶 08-11 · 20日 -2.9% · 距高 -3.2% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约20%（基准约20%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇪🇺
Eurozone欧元区
EZ
Turn risk拐点风险
Early breakdown signs — tighten stops出现早期破位迹象 — 收紧止损
20d20日 -2.9%
off-high距高 -3.2%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Watch留意
US rate shock — watch, don't chase美债利率冲击——观察，勿追高
Taiwan台湾
Stretched涨幅偏高
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
91/100
Stretched well above its own trend — not broken, but priced for a lot to keep going right. Don't add here.
已明显高于自身趋势——尚未破位，但已计入大量利好。 不宜加仓。
Since 08-05 · Peak 06-22 · 20-day +0.8% · Off high -3.3% · Momentum improving · ≥5% dip in a month ~27% vs ~27% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-05 · 见顶 06-22 · 20日 +0.8% · 距高 -3.3% · 动能 转强 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约27%（基准约27%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇹🇼
Taiwan台湾
TW
Stretched涨幅偏高
Don't add here不宜加仓
20d20日 +0.8%
off-high距高 -3.3%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Caution谨慎
Parabolic extension / exhaustion — get ready to protect gains抛物线伸展／透支——准备保护收益
India印度
Quiet平静
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
8/100
Quiet. Nothing stretched, nothing breaking — and nothing that needs a decision today. Nothing to do.
平静。既不极端，也未破位——今天没有需要做的决定。 无需操作。
Since 08-26 · Peak 01-02 · 20-day -4.0% · Off high -11.1% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~18% vs ~18% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-26 · 见顶 01-02 · 20日 -4.0% · 距高 -11.1% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约18%（基准约18%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇮🇳
India印度
IN
Quiet平静
Nothing to do无需操作
20d20日 -4.0%
off-high距高 -11.1%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Calm平静
nothing to do无需操作
Hong Kong香港
Quiet平静
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
36/100
Quiet. Nothing stretched, nothing breaking — and nothing that needs a decision today. Nothing to do.
平静。既不极端，也未破位——今天没有需要做的决定。 无需操作。
Breadth check: 0/4 liquid tech gauges are up over 20 sessions and 0/4 over 5 — mixed.
广度核验：近20日上涨0/4，近5日上涨0/4——表现分化。
Macro backdrop: Macro backdrop is shown separately from the price state. Measured HK rate/FX pressure is carried by the pullback radar; Iran/oil and the midterm calendar remain unscored context.
宏观背景：宏观背景与价格状态分开显示。实测的港股利率／汇率压力归入回撤雷达；伊朗／原油及中期选举日历仅作未评分背景。
Since 08-26 · Peak 01-29 · 20-day -2.1% · Off high -10.9% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~34% vs ~31% base · Odds from own history + this radar's live record
进入状态 08-26 · 见顶 01-29 · 20日 -2.1% · 距高 -10.9% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约34%（基准约31%） · 概率来源 自身历史 + 该雷达实时记录
🇭🇰
Hong Kong香港
HK
Quiet平静
Nothing to do无需操作
20d20日 -2.1%
off-high距高 -10.9%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Caution谨慎
US rate shock — get ready to protect gains美债利率冲击——准备保护收益
China中国
Quiet平静
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
25/100
Quiet. Nothing stretched, nothing breaking — and nothing that needs a decision today. Nothing to do.
平静。既不极端，也未破位——今天没有需要做的决定。 无需操作。
Since 09-11 · Peak 05-13 · 20-day -2.4% · Off high -8.4% · Momentum fading
进入状态 09-11 · 见顶 05-13 · 20日 -2.4% · 距高 -8.4% · 动能 转弱
🇨🇳
China中国
CN
Quiet平静
Nothing to do无需操作
20d20日 -2.4%
off-high距高 -8.4%
United Kingdom英国
Quiet平静
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
47/100
Quiet. Nothing stretched, nothing breaking — and nothing that needs a decision today. Nothing to do.
平静。既不极端，也未破位——今天没有需要做的决定。 无需操作。
Since 08-26 · Peak 02-27 · 20-day -1.1% · Off high -2.4% · Momentum fading · ≥5% dip in a month ~19% vs ~19% base · Odds from own history only — radar record still building
进入状态 08-26 · 见顶 02-27 · 20日 -1.1% · 距高 -2.4% · 动能 转弱 · 一个月内≥5%回撤 约19%（基准约19%） · 概率来源 仅自身历史——雷达记录仍在累积
🇬🇧
United Kingdom英国
GB
Quiet平静
Nothing to do无需操作
20d20日 -1.1%
off-high距高 -2.4%
Pullback risk回撤风险
Watch留意
US rate shock — watch, don't chase美债利率冲击——观察，勿追高
United States美国
Quiet平静
Stretch vs its 10-yr range相对10年区间的伸展度
51/100
Quiet. Nothing stretched, nothing breaking — and nothing that needs a decision today. Nothing to do.
平静。既不极端，也未破位——今天没有需要做的决定。 无需操作。
Since 09-04 · Peak 08-13 · 20-day -2.1% · Off high -2.3% · Momentum fading
进入状态 09-04 · 见顶 08-13 · 20日 -2.1% · 距高 -2.3% · 动能 转弱
🇺🇸
United States美国
US
Quiet平静
Nothing to do无需操作
20d20日 -2.1%
off-high距高 -2.3%
Risk tags are context, never a ranking. Hover any market for the full read.风险标签仅供参考，不参与排名。将鼠标悬停在任一市场上可查看完整解读。
What changed近期变化
2026-09-11
🇰🇷
South Korea韩国
— State changed: Healthy trend → Crash in progress状态变化：趋势健康 → 崩跌进行中
2026-09-11
🇨🇳
China中国
— Momentum turned down动能转弱
2026-09-11
🇨🇳
China中国
— State changed: Repairing → Quiet状态变化：修复中 → 平静
2026-09-10
🇨🇳
China中国
— Lost its 20-day average跌破20日均线
2026-09-09
🇬🇧
United Kingdom英国
— Lost its 20-day average跌破20日均线
2026-09-08
🇰🇷
South Korea韩国
— State changed: Trying to bottom → Healthy trend状态变化：尝试筑底 → 趋势健康
Who's leading in dollars?谁在以美元计领先？Local stock move + currency = your return in US dollars.本币股市 + 汇率 = 你的美元收益。
Performance in US dollars以美元计的表现 ?Shows each market in USD, split into local stock return and currency effect. Price return only. Default sort: rotation rank (fast 20d momentum, state-gated). 12m sort still available via buttons.以美元看各市场表现，并拆成股市涨跌与汇率影响。仅价格回报。默认排序：轮动排名（20日快速动能，受状态约束）。12月排序仍可通过按钮切换。
local equity + currency = USD return本币股票 + 货币 = 美元收益
local equity本币股票
currency tailwind货币顺风
currency drag货币拖累
net USD return美元净收益
US vs the World — capital rotation美国 vs 全球 — 资本轮动 ?Maps who is beating the US and whether that lead is improving or fading. Display-only.显示谁跑赢美国，以及领先是在增强还是减弱。仅展示。
US still leading the world美国仍领跑全球↖ Improving改善
Leading领先 ↗
↙ Lagging落后
Weakening走弱 ↘
behind US落后美国
ahead领先
🇹🇼
TW
🇬🇧
GB
🇪🇺
EZ
🇦🇺
AU
🇮🇳
IN
🇯🇵
JP
🇰🇷
KR
| Market市场 | Phase阶段 | vs US 3m对美3月 | 6m6月 | 12m12月 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇹🇼Taiwan台湾 | Leading领先 | +1.7% | +21.2% | +51.2% |
| 🇬🇧United Kingdom英国 | Lagging落后 | -0.1% | -8.6% | -1.1% |
| 🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区 | Lagging落后 | -1.5% | -6.1% | -1.5% |
| 🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚 | Lagging落后 | -1.7% | -10.7% | -7.2% |
| 🇮🇳India印度 | Lagging落后 | -2.5% | -16.9% | -26.3% |
| 🇯🇵Japan日本 | Weakening走弱 | -3.6% | +4.9% | +17.0% |
| 🇰🇷South Korea韩国 | Weakening走弱 | -6.4% | +19.8% | +84.2% |
Positive = beat the S&P 500 over that window. Relative-strength lens only.正值 = 该周期跑赢标普500。仅相对强弱视角。
Full data tables完整数据表Cross-country scorecard · rates & curve desk跨国评分卡 · 利率与曲线台
Cross-country comparison跨国对比 ?Same scorecard for every economy: regime, recession risk, rates, CPI, FX, and equity stretch.每个经济体用同一套表：周期、衰退风险、利率、CPI、汇率与股市拉伸。
| Economy经济体 | 1Y · USD1年 · 美元 | Regime周期 | Recession衰退 | Policy政策利率 | 10y10年 | Curve曲线 | Real 10y实际10年 | CPICPI | GDPGDP | Unemp失业 | FX 3m汇率3月 | Off high距高点 | Drawdown回撤 ?Realized damage from the 252-day high — how much has already been lost, not a forward risk estimate.距252日高点的已实现回撤——衡量已损失多少，而非前瞻风险预估。 | Market state市场状态 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵Japan日本 | Stagflation滞胀 0.45 | 52 | 1.27% | 2.67% | 1.40 | — | -0.5% 2021-06 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 4.9% | -13.0% | 32 | Breaking down正在破位 | |
| 🇰🇷South Korea韩国 data-limited数据有限 | Stagflation滞胀 0.14 | 39 | 2.91% | 4.18% | 1.27 | 0.79 | 2.0% 2025-04 | 3.8% | 2.8% | 13.2% | -24.2% | 68 | Crash damage unresolved崩跌损伤未修复 | |
| 🇹🇼Taiwan台湾 data-limited数据有限 | Stagflation滞胀 0.00 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.4% | -3.3% | 8 | Stretched涨幅偏高 | |
| 🇮🇳India印度 data-limited数据有限 | Stagflation滞胀 0.33 | 44 | — | 6.89% | — | 3.36 | 3.0% 2025-03 | — | — | 0.7% | -11.1% | 52 | Quiet平静 | |
| 🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚 data-limited数据有限 | Stagflation滞胀 0.20 | 34 | 4.46% | 4.83% | 0.37 | — | 2.4% 2025-01 | 2.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | -5.6% | 41 | Turn risk拐点风险 | |
| 🇬🇧United Kingdom英国 data-limited数据有限 | Stagflation滞胀 0.00 | 10 | 3.71% | 4.80% | 1.23 | 1.12 | 3.4% 2025-03 | 1.2% | 4.9% | 1.5% | -2.4% | 5 | Quiet平静 | |
| 🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区 | Stagflation滞胀 0.64 | 6 | 2.25% | 3.22% | 1.19 | 0.08 | 2.9% 2026-07 | 1.2% | 6.4% | 1.8% | -3.2% | 6 | Turn risk拐点风险 |
Descriptive only. Equity stretch uses each market's own history.仅描述。股市拉伸按各市场自身历史衡量。
Rates & curve desk利率与曲线室 ?Compares yield curves, real yields, 10-year yield drift, and carry vs the US.比较收益率曲线、实际利率、10年利率变化，以及相对美国的套息。
US anchor美国锚: 4.95% 10y · 4.56% 2y · curve曲线 +0.39🇯🇵Japan日本
normal正常
3m 1.3
10y 2.7
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.40
Real 10y实际10年—
Carry vs US对美套息-2.28
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +174bp
(z+2.7)
🇰🇷South Korea韩国
normal正常
3m 2.9
10y 4.2
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.27
Real 10y实际10年0.79
Carry vs US对美套息-0.77
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +111bp
(z+1.5)
🇹🇼Taiwan台湾
——
No keyless yield curve for this market — read leans on the equity tape.该市场无免密钥收益率曲线 — 读数依赖股市行情。
🇮🇳India印度
——
3m —
10y 6.9
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月—
Real 10y实际10年3.36
Carry vs US对美套息+1.94
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +10bp
(z+0.3)
🇦🇺Australia澳大利亚
flat平坦
3m 4.5
10y 4.8
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月0.37
Real 10y实际10年—
Carry vs US对美套息-0.12
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +56bp
(z+0.7)
🇬🇧United Kingdom英国
normal正常
3m 3.7
10y 4.8
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.23
Real 10y实际10年1.12
Carry vs US对美套息-0.15
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +60bp
(z+0.7)
🇪🇺Eurozone欧元区
normal正常
3m 2.0
10y 3.2
Curve 10y−3m曲线 10年−3月1.19
Real 10y实际10年0.08
Carry vs US对美套息-1.73
10y · 3m drift10年 · 3月漂移+0.00
10y vel 20d10年20日速度
↑ +10bp
(z+0.4)
🇪🇺 Eurozone fragmentation — peripheral spreads over Bund欧元区分化 — 外围国相对德债利差 ?Wider spreads mean more Eurozone stress; tighter spreads mean calmer conditions.利差走阔代表欧元区压力上升；收窄代表环境更稳。
| Spread利差 | bps基点 | 3m3月 | Read读数 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇹Italy (BTP)意大利 (BTP) | 76 bps | -30 | tightening收窄 |
| 🇪🇸Spain (Bonos)西班牙 (Bonos) | 45 bps | -22 | tightening收窄 |
| 🇫🇷France (OAT)法国 (OAT) | 71 bps | +42 | widening走阔 |
As of截至 2026-06-01
🏦ECB balance-sheet impulse欧央行资产负债表脉冲
QT缩表
Total assets总资产€5.91T
13-week13周-3.7%
52-week52周-2.8%
As of截至2026-09-06
QT — balance sheet still draining缩表 — 资产负债表仍在收缩 · ECB-only clean weekly series.仅欧央行周度序列。
Where is risk building?风险在何处积聚？Emerging-market stress, contagion to the US, the dollar and funding — one read each.新兴市场压力、对美传导、美元与融资——各给一读。
🌐 International Risk Desk国际风险台
International Risk Desk国际风险台
Four signals. One read: where risk is building, what crosses to the US, and what to do.四个信号，一张快照：风险在哪积聚，什么传导至美国，该怎么做。
Emerging Markets新兴市场
Calm平静
Elevated: 1 of 6 stress signals hot偏高：1/6个压力信号触发
No action needed无需操作 EM positions新兴市场仓位
Contagion to US对美传导
Not reaching US markets尚未传导至美国
0 of 5 US transmission channels are hot个美国传导渠道触发
Ignore for US book美股仓位可忽略
— check again if EM worsens——如EM恶化则重新审视
Dollar美元
Dollar moving on rate differences, not fear受利差驱动
Rate gaps, not fear, explain recent moves近期走势由利差主导，非恐慌驱动
Watch — don't chase观望，勿追入 dollar strength美元强势
Dollar Funding美元融资
Calm平静
Swap lines ~$0.1bn outstanding · money-market spreads normal互换额度余额约0.1亿美元·货币市场息差正常
Ignore忽略 — no funding stress——无融资压力
As of 2026-09-15 · context only, not a forecast截至 2026-09-15 · 仅供参考，非预测
Contagion board传导看板 ?How tightly are global markets linked right now? The score (0–100) measures how far a shock in one market travels to others, using a rolling 150-day window. Higher = shocks spread faster. Top shock senders are markets that export the most stress to peers. US receiving share = how much of international stress eventually reaches the S&P 500 — this is a transmission read, not a causal share. Source: daily ETF returns.全球市场目前关联程度如何？得分（0–100）衡量某市场冲击向其他市场的传导程度，使用150日滚动窗口。数值越高，冲击传播越快。前三大冲击输出方是最多向同伴输出压力的市场。美国接收份额 = 国际压力最终传导至标普500的比例——这是传导读数，非因果占比。数据来源：ETF日度收益。
How connected are markets right now?市场间关联程度如何？81
/ 100
Markets tightly linked — shocks travel fast市场高度关联——冲击快速传播
Above 80: stress in any market can quickly reach others. Below 60: markets absorb their own shocks.超过80：任意市场的压力可快速蔓延。低于60：市场能消化自身冲击。
Top 3 shock senders前三大冲击输出方
#1
🇦🇺
Australia澳大利亚
#2
🇩🇪
Germany德国
#3
🇨🇦
Canada加拿大
81.2%
US markets are tightly plugged into global moves right now美国市场目前与全球走势高度联动
?US receiving share (precise: 81.2%): what fraction of global shock variance is absorbed by the US index. Source: 150-day rolling VAR, 10-step horizon. This is a transmission read — not a statement that X% of US price moves are caused by overseas markets.美国接收份额（精确值：81.2%）：全球冲击方差中有多大比例被美国指数吸收。数据来源：150日滚动VAR，10步预测。这是传导读数——并非X%的美国价格走势由海外市场引起。
5 US transmission channels5个美国传导渠道
US credit spreads美国信用利差
Bank shares银行股
Bond-market volatility债市波动
Money-market plumbing货币市场管道
Dollar safety bid美元避险需求
Data as of 2026-09-14数据截至 2026-09-14.
Central bank desk央行动态台 ?Rates from public data. Stance = realized rate changes over the trailing 3 months — not forward guidance or market pricing. Balance sheet: available for Fed, ECB, and BoJ only (public weekly data); others are honest nulls. Next meeting dates are calendar-only. Descriptive only — no policy-intent projection.利率来自公开数据。立场 = 过去3个月已实现的利率变动——非前瞻指引或市场定价。资产负债表：仅限美联储、欧央行和日本央行（公开周度数据）；其他为诚实缺失。下次会议日期仅为日历。仅描述，不预测政策意图。
What the major central banks are actually doing主要央行的实际政策动向| Bank央行 | Rate利率 | Stance立场 | Last move近期动向 | Balance sheet资产负债表 | Next meeting下次会议 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve (FOMC)美联储（FOMC） | 3.63% | Raising加息 | ↓ 2026-5 | Adding扩表 | 09-16 · 1d |
| 🇪🇺 European Central Bank欧洲央行 | 2.25% | Holding按兵不动 | ↑ 2026-6 | Draining缩表 | 10-29 · 44d |
| 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan日本银行 | 0.84% | Raising加息 | ↑ 2026-6 | Draining缩表 | 09-18 · 3d |
| 🇬🇧 Bank of England英格兰银行 | 3.71% | Cutting降息 | ↓ 2026-1 | — | 09-17 · 2d |
| 🇨🇭 Swiss National Bank瑞士国家银行 | -0.04% | Cutting降息 | ↑ 2025-11 | — | 09-17 · 2d |
| 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada加拿大央行 | 2.27% | Holding按兵不动 | ↓ 2026-6 | — | 10-28 · 43d |
| 🇦🇺 Reserve Bank of Australia澳大利亚储备银行 | 4.46% | Raising加息 | ↑ 2026-6 | — | 09-29 · 14d |
Balance-sheet data available for Fed, ECB, and BoJ only — others are honest nulls. Rate data as of 2026-09-11资产负债表数据仅限美联储、欧央行和日本央行——其余为实际缺失。利率数据截至2026-09-11
Credit & bond stress信用与债券压力 ?Credit spreads = the extra yield emerging-market bonds pay above comparable Treasuries, in percentage points. Velocity arrow = direction of 20-day move (↑ widening = more stress, ↓ tightening = easing). EM high-yield source: BAML EM High Yield index. Regional spreads: BAML regional subindices. Inversion board: 10yr minus 3-month yield for 6 major curves. EM spread history collected since Jul 2023 (data-vendor cap) — long-run comparisons build up over time.信用利差 = 新兴市场债券相对同期美债的超额收益率（百分点）。速度箭头 = 20日走势方向（↑走阔 = 压力上升，↓收窄 = 压力减轻）。新兴市场高收益来源：美银美林新兴市场高收益指数。地区利差：美银美林地区子指数。倒挂看板：6个主要收益率曲线的10年减3月期利差。新兴市场利差数据自2023年7月起收集（数据供应商限制）——长期比较随时间积累。
Are lenders charging more for risk?贷款方是否在为风险索取更高溢价？EM high-yield spreads新兴市场高收益利差
2.79%
→
Steady (20d)持平（20日）
Asia credit spreads亚洲信用利差
0.81%
→
Steady持平
LatAm credit spreads拉美信用利差
1.93%
↓
Tightening (20d)收窄（20日）
EMEA credit spreads欧非中东信用利差
1.36%
↓
Tightening (20d)收窄（20日）
0 / 6
Yield curves inverted收益率曲线倒挂
All 6 tracked curves positively sloped — no recession signal from bond markets所有6条跟踪曲线均正斜率——债市无衰退信号
All 6 tracked curves positively sloped — no recession signal from bond markets所有6条跟踪曲线均正斜率——债市无衰退信号
EM bonds vs US Treasuries — last 120 days新兴市场债 vs 美债——过去120天
EM spread history collected since Jul 2023 (data-vendor cap) — long-term comparisons build up over time.新兴市场利差数据自2023年7月起收集（数据供应商限制）——长期比较数据将随时间积累。 Spread data as of 2026-09-10利差数据截至2026-09-10.
What's driving the dollar?美元走势的驱动因素 ?Dollar regime uses a 120-day rolling window. Rate-differential weight: how much of the DXY move correlates with the US-vs-world short-rate spread. Risk-off weight: DXY vs VIX co-movement. Residual: unexplained. Dual-window confirmed over both 5d and 20d. Weights used: {'eur2y': 0.693, 'jpy2y': 0.164, 'gbp2y': 0.143}. Window-sensitive: regime may shift with a different window.美元制度使用120日滚动窗口。利差权重：DXY走势与美国对全球短期利差的相关程度。避险权重：DXY与VIX的同步走势。残差：不可解释部分。双窗口在5日和20日均已确认。使用权重：{'eur2y': 0.693, 'jpy2y': 0.164, 'gbp2y': 0.143}。窗口敏感：不同窗口下制度判断可能不同。
Watch — don't chase dollar strength until the read is fresh等待最新读数后再追美元强势Rate-driven利差驱动
Rate differences between the US and other major economies explain the recent dollar move — not a flight to safety.美国与其他主要经济体之间的利差是近期美元走势的主因，而非避险需求。
120-day rolling window · As of 2026-09-15120日滚动窗口 · 截至2026-09-15
Fragility map脆弱性地图 ?Flags countries where structural vulnerabilities coincide: debt-to-GDP above 70% and rising, fiscal deficit below −5% of GDP, or current account deficit below −3% of GDP. BIS credit gap where available. Source: IMF WEO 2025. Annual data — updates with IMF WEO releases. Berg & Pattillo (1999) criterion adapted. Presence of a flag = vulnerabilities exist, not that a crisis is imminent; most historically flagged countries did not experience a crisis.标记存在结构性脆弱因素的国家：债务/GDP超过70%且上升、财政赤字低于GDP的−5%，或经常账户赤字低于GDP的−3%。BIS信用缺口（可用时）。来源：IMF WEO 2025。年度数据——随IMF WEO发布更新。改编自Berg & Pattillo（1999）标准。有标记 = 脆弱性存在，不代表危机即将发生；历史上大多数预警未演变为危机。
Slow-moving structural vulnerabilities — not a timing signal缓慢变化的结构性脆弱因素——非择时信号
🇬🇧
United Kingdom英国
3 of 4 structural warnings concurrent4项结构性预警中3项并发
🇺🇸
United States美国
3 of 4 structural warnings concurrent4项结构性预警中3项并发
Slow-moving fundamentals — flags fragility, not timing; most historical warnings did not become crises.缓慢变化的基本面指标——揭示脆弱性，非择时信号；历史上大多数预警并未演变为危机。 ?Berg & Pattillo (1999) criterion adapted: debt >70% GDP and rising, fiscal balance <−5%, current account <−3%. Source: IMF WEO 2025. BIS credit gap where available. Annual data — updates with IMF WEO releases.Berg & Pattillo（1999）改编标准：债务>70% GDP且上升，财政余额<−5%，经常账户<−3%。来源：IMF WEO 2025。BIS信用缺口（可用时）。年度数据——随IMF WEO发布更新。 Data as of IMF WEO 2025 (where available)数据来源：IMF WEO 2025（可用时）
Where crash pressure is flowing now冲击压力的实时流向 ?How much inbound pressure each market is absorbing from markets that are actually falling — measured from economic linkages and current crash depth. Low / Building / High reflects the severity relative to the past two years. Top sources show which markets are driving the pressure. Source: trade, financial and supply-chain linkages blended with recent price action. Display only — not a signal to trade.每个市场正在吸收多少来自真实下跌市场的输入压力——由经济联系与当前跌幅共同衡量。低/升温/高反映过去两年的相对严重程度。压力来源显示哪些市场是主要驱动力。数据来源：贸易、金融与供应链联系，结合近期价格走势。仅作展示，非交易信号。
Measured from market connections and who is actually falling由市场关联与实际下跌方共同衡量
United Kingdom英国
Building升温
Japan (14%)
日本 (14%)
Australia (15%)
澳大利亚 (15%)
Eurozone (17%)
欧元区 (17%)
India印度
Building升温
Japan (11%)
日本 (11%)
Australia (14%)
澳大利亚 (14%)
Canada (10%)
加拿大 (10%)
United States美国
Building升温
Japan (9%)
日本 (9%)
Canada (19%)
加拿大 (19%)
Australia (12%)
澳大利亚 (12%)
Canada加拿大
Building升温
Japan (11%)
日本 (11%)
Australia (18%)
澳大利亚 (18%)
United States (17%)
美国 (17%)
South Korea韩国
Building升温
Japan (20%)
日本 (20%)
Taiwan (23%)
台湾 (23%)
Australia (10%)
澳大利亚 (10%)
Hong Kong香港
Building升温
Japan (11%)
日本 (11%)
Australia (12%)
澳大利亚 (12%)
China (15%)
中国 (15%)
Australia澳大利亚
Building升温
Japan (16%)
日本 (16%)
China (13%)
中国 (13%)
Canada (9%)
加拿大 (9%)
exporting risk风险输出方
Euro area欧元区
Building升温
Japan (15%)
日本 (15%)
United Kingdom (24%)
英国 (24%)
Australia (8%)
澳大利亚 (8%)
China中国
Building升温
Japan (7%)
日本 (7%)
Canada (11%)
加拿大 (11%)
Hong Kong (12%)
香港 (12%)
Taiwan台湾
Building升温
Japan (18%)
日本 (18%)
Australia (11%)
澳大利亚 (11%)
South Korea (27%)
韩国 (27%)
Japan日本
Low低
Australia (14%)
澳大利亚 (14%)
South Korea (20%)
韩国 (20%)
Taiwan (16%)
台湾 (16%)
exporting risk风险输出方
The deep dive深入细察Regime clock, cross-market correlations and league tables — the why behind the reads.周期时钟、跨市场相关性与排行——各项读数背后的「为什么」。
Regimes, correlations & rankings周期、相关性与排名Growth × inflation map · correlation heatmap · league tables增长×通胀图 · 相关性热力图 · 排行榜
Regime map — growth × inflation周期图 — 增长 × 通胀 ?Places each economy on the growth/inflation clock. Right side = better growth; top = more inflation pressure.把每个经济体放在增长/通胀时钟上。右侧增长更好；上方通胀压力更高。
↖ Stagflation滞胀
Reflation再通胀 ↗
↙ Growth-scare增长恐慌
Goldilocks金发女孩 ↘
🇯🇵
JP
🇰🇷
KR
🇹🇼
TW
🇮🇳
IN
🇦🇺
AU
🇬🇧
GB
🇪🇺
EZ
Snapshot only, not a forecast.仅快照，非预测。
Cross-market correlation跨市场相关性 ?Shows whether markets are moving together. Lower correlation means better diversification.显示各市场是否同涨同跌。相关性越低，分散越好。
avg平均 0.49 · 252d| 🇯🇵 JP | 🇰🇷 KR | 🇹🇼 TW | 🇮🇳 IN | 🇦🇺 AU | 🇬🇧 GB | 🇪🇺 EZ | 🇺🇸 US | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 JP | 1 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| 🇰🇷 KR | 0.79 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| 🇹🇼 TW | 0.86 | 0.79 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| 🇮🇳 IN | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| 🇦🇺 AU | 0.60 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.55 |
| 🇬🇧 GB | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.65 | 1 | 0.90 | 0.43 |
| 🇪🇺 EZ | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.71 | 0.90 | 1 | 0.65 |
| 🇺🇸 US | 0.54 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 0.65 | 1 |
Moderately correlated — some diversification on offer中度相关 — 有一定分散空间 · Red = more correlated; green = more diversifying. Display-only.红 = 相关更高；绿 = 更能分散。仅展示。
Where each economy ranks各经济体排名
20d momentum — rotation rank20日动能 — 轮动排名
🇹🇼TW
#1
overheated — rank capped过热 — 排名受限
🇰🇷KR
#2
held back — crash in progress受压制 — 崩跌进行中
🇪🇺EZ
#3
held back — turn risk受压制 — 拐点风险
🇬🇧GB
#4
🇦🇺AU
#5
held back — turn risk受压制 — 拐点风险
🇯🇵JP
#6
held back — breaking down受压制 — 正在破位
🇮🇳IN
#7
Recession pressure衰退压力
🇯🇵JP
52.0
🇮🇳IN
44.0
🇰🇷KR
39.0
🇦🇺AU
34.0
🇹🇼TW
13.0
🇬🇧GB
10.0
🇪🇺EZ
6.0
Equity drawdown risk股市回撤风险
🇰🇷KR
68.0
🇮🇳IN
52.0
🇦🇺AU
41.0
🇯🇵JP
32.0
🇹🇼TW
8.0
🇪🇺EZ
6.0
🇬🇧GB
5.0
Real 10y yield实际10年收益
🇪🇺EZ
0.1
🇰🇷KR
0.8
🇬🇧GB
1.1
🇮🇳IN
3.4
10y yield10年期收益
🇯🇵JP
2.7
🇪🇺EZ
3.2
🇰🇷KR
4.2
🇬🇧GB
4.8
🇦🇺AU
4.8
🇮🇳IN
6.9