Stagflation滞胀 · mid中期 LIVE实时 2026-10-30
0 50 100 28 / 100
28Risk-off避险 ▶
GREEN — TREND-FOLLOWING SUPPORTED偏多 — 支持趋势跟随 YELLOW — TRADE WITH CAUTION中性 — 谨慎交易 RED — DEFEND CAPITAL避险 — 优先保住本金

Risk-off — stress is elevated; defend capital first.避险 — 压力升高；优先防守。

Playbook posture: Defensive.策略姿态：防御。
→ Mixed when trend & technicals firms up (now 15/100).→ 若趋势与技术转强（现 15/100），则转「混合」。
Factor breakdown因子分解 — 6 signals信号
Trend & technicals趋势与技术 15
Risk appetite风险偏好 15
Volatility & froth波动与拥挤 46
Breadth & participation广度与参与 10
PBoC liquidity & credit央行流动性与信用 28
Downturn-risk guard下行风险护栏 71
Full breakdown ↓完整分解 ↓
Pullback risk radar回撤风险雷达
42Calm — no driver elevated平静 — 无驱动升高
~27% chance of a ≥5% pullback within a month · 0.9× the usual odds未来一个月内出现≥5%回撤的概率约27% · 约为平时的0.9倍
Breadth breakdown (all-boats)广度普跌（普跌）98
Capital outflow / FX资本外流／汇率30
US rate shock美债利率冲击13
Full risk detail ↓完整风险详情 ↓
11-session path 近 11 交易日走势 Score vs time综合评分 · 时序
CHINA DASHBOARD中国看板2026-10-30
SSE
Shanghai上证综指
3,599.0
-1.4%
CSI 300
Large cap沪深300
ChiNext
Growth创业板
HSI
Hang Seng恒生
23,294
+1.5%
Why this regime为什么这样判断
Policy政策 · Easing宽松 Flows资金 · −¥36bn亿 Internals内部结构 · Calm平稳 Property房地产 · Deep contraction深度收缩
What To Do该怎么做
Defensive防御
−
Stagflation is the dangerous quad — defensives/banks/upstream hold up best; it is regime-unstable in China.滞胀是最危险的象限 — 防御／银行／上游相对抗跌；在中国周期不稳定。
−
Money is getting tighter at the central bank, and every part of that read agrees.央行层面的货币条件正在收紧，该判读的各个部分方向一致。
Next high-impact China print: NBS PMI (mfg + non-mfg) tomorrow (Oct 31).下一项高影响中国数据：国家统计局 PMI（制造业＋非制造业）明天（10月31日）。Highest-impact print soon近期最重要数据
Upcoming Events近期数据 NEXT 14 DAYS未来14天
5 high-impact print ahead项高影响数据待发
NBS PMI (mfg + non-mfg)国家统计局 PMI（制造业＋非制造业）
2026-10-31
HIGH高
Customs trade (ex…海关进出口数据
2026-11-09
HIGH高
CPI (consumer prices)CPI（居民消费价格）
2026-11-10
HIGH高
Money supply, RMB…货币供应、人民币贷款与社融
2026-11-10
HIGH高
4 of/ 5 shown · full calendar →项已显示 · 完整日历 →
Top Stock Setups精选买点 FROM THE STOCK BOARD来自股票看板
亿纬锂能
300014.SZ · Industrials
ENTRYENTRY
中国卫星
600118.SS · Industrials
ENTRYENTRY
璞泰来
603659.SS · Basic Materials
ENTRYENTRY
埃斯顿
002747.SZ · Industrials
ENTRYENTRY
汇川技术
300124.SZ · Industrials
ENTRYENTRY
Stock Screener →选股看板 →
Market Sentiment市场情绪
PANIC 恐慌 EUPHORIA 亢奋
Active活跃
Composite at 86 · a heads-up, not a scored signal 综合指数 86 · 仅供参考，不构成评分信号
Sector Temperature板块温度
Hot热门
Consumer Staples必需消费Baijiu & Liquor白酒Banks银行
Turning up — buy zone回升中 — 买入区
Consumer Staples必需消费Baijiu & Liquor白酒Banks银行
Sector heat板块热度
Policy Monitor政策监控
PBoC stance央行立场easing宽松
Reserve ratio存准率9.0%
Credit impulse信贷脉冲-10.1%
Official tone官方基调steady / neutral平稳 / 中性
Easy policy, but new credit is still slowing.政策宽松，但新信贷仍在放缓。
Connect Flows互联通资金
−¥36亿
Southbound selling南向卖出
Streak连续6/20 days天
Top buys主要买入金斯瑞生物-一千 · 建滔积层板 · 智谱
Mainland money supporting Hong Kong.内地资金持续支撑香港。
Macro News宏观新闻
— Monetary policy货币政策 PBOC: Continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively use various…中国央行：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕 10-30 Alert警报 One macro driver is dominating the tape单一宏观驱动主导盘面
24 of/ 739 stories kept · full feed →条新闻保留 · 完整新闻流 →
Property房地产
Deep contraction深度收缩
still contracting仍在收缩
70-city prices70城价格-32 net cities净城市数
Still the economy's main drag.仍是经济的主要拖累。
AI BriefAI 简报
China regime: StagflationA股格局：滞胀 Policy: On hold政策：按兵不动

China squeeze: Growth is cooling while prices rise and system cash contracts.中国承压：经济增长降温、物价上涨，同时体系内流动性收缩。

A read-through of signals — not a signal source.信号解读 — 非信号来源。
Alerts Centre警报中心 1 FIRED已触发
🎯
One macro driver is dominating the tape单一宏观驱动主导盘面 One macro driver is clearly dominating the tape today: AI /…今日单一宏观驱动明显主导盘面：AI/半导体领涨（高置信）— 行情由此驱动，而非全面宽度
View all →查看全部 →
Go deeper深入研究
A-Share StocksA股个股 Market Heatmap市场热力图 China Intel中国情报 Policy & Credit政策与信贷 Flow Velocity资金流速 Allocation仓位策略 Regime History周期历史 AI BriefAI简报
Data health数据健康度 · 7 of 7 feeds fresh 7/7 数据新鲜 · updated更新于 2026-10-30 ▾
Market State — Evidence & Signals市场状态 — 证据与信号
What the composite measures综合指标测量 · 28/100 Risk-off避险
Model headline模型原始标题Risk-off — stress is elevated; defend capital first.避险 — 压力升高；优先防守。
Trend & technicals趋势与技术
0/3 China indices in an uptrend across timeframes (downtrend, downtrend, downtrend).0/3 个A股指数多周期呈上升趋势。
 15
Risk appetite风险偏好
Cross-asset RORO risk-off; 78% of legs agree跨资产 RORO 避险；78% 信号同向
 15
Volatility & froth波动与拥挤
QVIX fear elevated; margin froth crowdedQVIX 恐慌升高；融资拥挤
 46
Breadth & participation广度与参与
Breadth 9%ile of 5y; confirming price广度处于五年 9 百分位；确认价格
 10
PBoC liquidity & credit央行流动性与信用
PBoC liquidity contracting; slowdown elevated央行流动性收缩；经济放缓偏高
 28
Downturn-risk guard下行风险护栏
Slowdown elevated; drawdown-risk band low经济放缓偏高；回撤风险区间低
 71
Signals — do they agree?各信号 — 是否一致？
Macro regime宏观周期 Stagflation滞胀
Growth axis增长轴 falling下行
PBoC liquidity央行流动性 tightening收紧
Risk appetite (RORO)风险偏好（RORO） risk-off风险规避
Slowdown gauge放缓仪表 elevated偏高
Drawdown risk回撤风险 low低
60% agreement一致度 · solid — well-supported扎实 — 支撑充分 · cautious but fragile谨慎（但脆弱）
drawdown risk low vs regime cautious回撤风险低 对阵周期谨慎
The regime — and where it's headed当前周期 — 及走向
Regime周期Stagflation滞胀
Regime watch周期预警 Stable稳定
Signal agreement信号一致度60%
Cycle backdrop商业周期mid中期

Confirming确认: growth_cyclical_defensive, growth_smallcap_largecap, inflation_cpi_direction, inflation_ppi_direction, inflation_inflation_beta_basket

Contradicting矛盾: growth_indpro_trend

Market drivers市场驱动
Index指数1D7D30DRead判断
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
A-Share PhaseA股阶段
Context, not a forecast. China-native composite — options-fear and margin-froth legs stand in for VIX/HY.仅供参考，非预测。中国本土综合指标——期权恐慌与两融拥挤腿代替VIX/HY。
Markets — Index Health & Cross-Asset市场 — 指数健康与跨资产
Index health指数健康度
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE上证综指
3599.02
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -15.2% off high距高点
CSI 300 ETF沪深300 ETF
4.07
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -20.2% off high距高点
SHENZHEN COMPONENT深证成指
10833.78
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -33.8% off high距高点
HANG SENG恒生指数
23,294 +1.5%
live-patched intraday盘中实时更新
Sector temperature板块温度
Leading sectors领先板块
▲ Consumer Staples必需消费#1
▲ Baijiu & Liquor白酒#2
▲ Banks银行#3
▲ Healthcare医疗#4
Lagging sectors落后板块
▽ Technology科技#16
▽ Semiconductors半导体#15
▽ Nonferrous Metals有色金属#14
▽ Solar & Photovoltaic光伏#13
A-share sector heatmapA股板块热力图
Key rates & cross-asset关键利率与跨资产
Context only — click a sector or name to open in the Terminal.仅供参考 — 点击板块或个股在终端中查看。
Market Sentiment — Breakdown市场情绪 — 分解
Margin crowd meter两融拥挤度
2.63%
Pctile分位90
Maint. ratio维持担保250.2%
20d net buy20日净买入 -2686
Sentiment thermometer情绪温度计
¥1.57T万亿
Band区间active活跃
Turnover heat成交热度86th percentile第86百分位 — elevated — 偏高
Limit-up / down涨停 / 跌停47 / 82
A heads-up, not a scored signal.仅供参考，不构成评分信号。
Sectors — Ladder, Rotation & Breadth板块 — 阶梯、轮动与宽度
Act on now现在行动
Buy zone买入区
Consumer Staples必需消费 · #1Baijiu & Liquor白酒 · #2Banks银行 · #3
Avoid回避
Healthcare医疗 · #4Coal煤炭 · #5Media传媒 · #6Securities & Brokers券商 · #7Innovative Drugs创新药 · #8Automobiles汽车 · #9New-Energy Vehicle新能源车 · #10Real Estate房地产 · #11Defense & Military国防军工 · #12Solar & Photovoltaic光伏 · #13Nonferrous Metals有色金属 · #14Semiconductors半导体 · #15Technology科技 · #16
Leaders领先
Consumer Staples必需消费Baijiu & Liquor白酒Banks银行
Rotation vs CSI 300相对沪深300轮动
Sector板块Rank排名5d20d60dTrend趋势Read判断
Consumer Staples必需消费 1 +4.8% +16.2% +9.6% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Baijiu & Liquor白酒 2 +7.0% +17.6% +8.3% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Banks银行 3 +8.1% +18.2% +20.4% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中 OB超买
Healthcare医疗 4 +3.1% +9.1% +16.8% ▶ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Coal煤炭 5 +5.6% +8.6% +16.8% ▶ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Media传媒 6 -3.5% +2.5% +5.5% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Securities & Brokers券商 7 -2.4% +2.1% -1.5% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Innovative Drugs创新药 8 -0.4% +3.7% +7.1% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Automobiles汽车 9 -4.3% -2.6% -0.2% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
New-Energy Vehicle新能源车 10 -0.9% -3.4% -9.5% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Breadth — is the move broad?宽度 — 行情是否广泛？
Above 50-day50日上方18.1%
Above 200-day200日上方12.4%
Advancers vs decliners涨跌家数409 / 1298
New highs − lows新高-新低-417
Key ratios关键比价
Large vs mid大盘 vs 中盘-8.2%
Small vs large小盘 vs 大盘-8.0%
Ranked by the fast 5–10 day turn vs CSI 300, with the 20-day trend and overbought as guards.按相对沪深300的5–10日快速转向排序，20日趋势与超买作为约束。
Policy & Credit — PBoC, Impulse & Tape政策与信贷 — 央行、脉冲与盘面
PBoC policy — reserve ratio央行政策 — 存准率
9.0% easing宽松
Date日期Move变动To至
2025-05-07cut降 0.50pp9.0%
2024-09-27cut降 0.50pp9.5%
2024-01-24cut降 0.50pp10.0%
2023-09-14cut降 0.25pp10.5%
Official tone官方基调
Band区间steady / neutral平稳 / 中性
Trend趋势firming走强
Credit impulse & macro tape信贷脉冲与宏观盘面
Credit impulse信贷脉冲-10.1%
M1−M2 scissorsM1−M2剪刀差-4.0pp
Macro tape宏观盘面Fixed-asset inv.固定资产投资 -9.7% · Retail sales社会消费品零售 +1.1% · Exports出口 +36.3% · Imports进口 +31.0%
Margin / market cap融资余额 / 市值2.62% · 5d -2.71%
Credit-impulse direction is one of the two reads that historically led this market.信贷脉冲方向是历史上领先该市场的两个读数之一。
Connect Flows — Southbound & Smart Money互联通资金 — 南向与聪明钱
Southbound flow · mainland → Hong Kong南向资金 · 内地 → 香港
−¥36亿
20-day cumulative20日累计−¥247亿
Buy-day streak净买入天数6/20
Total HK holdings港股持仓市值¥11.0T万亿
Connect leaderboard互联通龙虎榜 · 2026-10-30
Northbound — most-active A-shares北向 — 最活跃A股
Stock股票Turnover亿成交亿Day当日
中际旭创 300308 47.39 -5.0%
新易盛 300502 36.57 -14.2%
北方华创 002371 29.53 -3.7%
宁德时代 300750 27.64 +1.7%
贵州茅台 600519 27.01 +2.8%
Southbound — mainland net南向 — 内地净买
Buys买入Net亿净亿
金斯瑞生物-一千+1.3
建滔积层板+0.9
智谱+0.6
中国海洋石油+0.1
A risk-appetite read, not a signal.风险偏好读数，非交易信号。
Property & Fiscal房地产与财政
70-city price breadth70城价格宽度
-32 net cities净城市 · 17↑ 49↓ 4→
Builder climate景气指数
NBS climate index国房景气91.45
Construction demand建材需求
Steel + iron-ore gauge钢铁+铁矿指标-0.8
Fiscal & market stress财政与市场压力
10Y government yield10年期国债1.65%
Property stocks地产股-39.3% from距 ATH
Tone: stress, easing at the margin. Still the economy's main drag.基调：压力，边际宽松。仍是经济的主要拖累。
AI Brief — China SynthesisAI简报 — 中国综合
AI Daily Brief · China & HK synthesisAI 每日简报 · 中港综合
2026-10-16 Updated daily每日更新
A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源
The gist要点
  • China squeeze: Growth is cooling while prices rise and system cash contracts.中国承压：经济增长降温、物价上涨，同时体系内流动性收缩。
  • HK split: Mainland selling and a firm dollar weigh more heavily offshore.香港市场分化：内地资金抛售和美元走强对离岸市场构成更大压力。
  • Leaders stretched: Banks and coal look extended; beaten-down chips show early interest.领涨板块透支：银行和煤炭涨势似乎过度；超跌芯片股开始受到关注。
What to do: Watch — don't chase 操作建议：保持观望，切勿追涨。
Key readings关键读数
China regimeA股格局Stagflation滞胀 Policy政策On hold按兵不动 System money系统流动性Tightening收紧 Hong Kong香港Neutral中性 HK dollar港元At weak edge — watching贴近弱方 — 需留意 Leading sector领涨板块BanksBanks
Confidence: Medium置信度：中as of数据截至 2026-10-16
The full read完整解读
Mainland China remains near Stagflation on the map. Growth is cooling, prices are warming, and system liquidity is contracting. The next direction is unclear because the transition reading is missing. Hong Kong sits near Reflation, but conviction is weak. Mainland selling is the main drag, while the firm dollar adds pressure through the currency peg. 中国内地在图谱上仍接近滞胀区间。增长正在降温，价格开始回升，体系流动性正在收缩。由于缺少过渡指标，下一步方向尚不明朗。 香港接近复苏通胀区间，但趋势信心不足。内地资金抛售是主要拖累，而美元走强则通过联系汇率制度增加压力。
⚖︎ Where signals disagree⚖︎ 信号分歧
  • Policy pipes: Central-bank language says easing, but the China liquidity read says contraction — support is still stuck in the pipes.政策传导：央行表态指向宽松，但中国流动性指标显示收缩——政策支持仍滞留在传导环节。
  • Market split: Banks and coal lead mainland shares, but money-flow checks are fading — their strength looks stretched.市场分化：银行和煤炭板块领涨内地股市，但资金流指标正在减弱——其强势已显透支。
  • HK pressure: Global risk is neutral, but mainland selling and peg outflows remain weak — offshore shares lack a clean lift.港股压力：全球风险环境中性，但内地资金抛售和联系汇率下的资金外流仍构成拖累——离岸股票缺乏明确的上行动力。
⛓︎ Chain reactions⛓︎ 连锁反应
  • If contracting China liquidity keeps up → policy-sensitive brokers and property may struggle to broaden the rally若中国流动性持续收紧 → 对政策敏感的券商和房地产板块可能难以推动涨势扩大
  • If the dollar keeps strengthening → Hong Kong and other emerging markets face a heavier drag若美元持续走强 → 香港及其他新兴市场将面临更大压力
♻︎ Playbook check♻︎ 剧本对照
Banks and coal remain leaders but show fading support. Chips are deeply beaten down and attracting early flows, which modestly favors reversal over continuation. 银行和煤炭板块仍处于领先地位，但支撑正在减弱。芯片板块已遭深度抛售，并开始吸引早期资金流入，因此较为偏向反转而非延续跌势。
What to watch关注事项
  • China activity data: shows whether cooling growth is becoming a deeper slowdown 中国经济活动数据：显示增长降温是否正演变为更深度的放缓
  • Loan-rate decision: shows whether easing moves beyond words 贷款利率决议：显示宽松政策是否会从口头表态转为实际行动
  • Chip follow-through: confirms whether early buying survives beyond one reading 芯片板块后续走势：确认早期买盘能否在单次数据之后持续
  • Hong Kong outflows: easing would remove a key offshore drag 香港资金外流：若有所缓解，将消除一个关键的离岸市场拖累因素
Research context only — not a signal. Generated nightly from the dashboards; full brief at仅供研究参考 — 非交易信号。每晚由看板生成；完整简报位于 aibrief.html.
Macro News & Official Policy Tone宏观新闻与官方政策基调
Official tone — CCTV 新闻联播官方基调 — 央视新闻联播
Band区间steady / neutral平稳 / 中性 — firming走强
Today's feed今日新闻 · 24 of/ 739 stories kept条保留
🏦
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上交所：10月26日至2026年10月30日，上交所对108起拉抬打压、虚假申报等证券异常交易行为采取了自律监管措施，对31起上市公司重大事项等进行专项核查，向证监会上报涉嫌违法违 Policy政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
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中国铁建：前三季度归母净利润93.48亿元，同比下降36.88% Policy政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
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财政部：1-9月，全国国有及国有控股企业营业总收入同比下降3.2%，利润总额同比增长3.0% Fiscal/Trade财政/贸易 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
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香港证监会主席敦促机构高管承担人工智能的问责责任 Tech科技 · 华尔街见闻 · 60/100
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日本鸡蛋价格再创新高 Fiscal/Trade财政/贸易 · 华尔街见闻 · 58/100
open full feed →打开完整新闻流 →
Headlines stay in their native language.标题保持原始语言。
Alerts Centre警报中心
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One macro driver is dominating the tape单一宏观驱动主导盘面 One macro driver is clearly dominating the tape today: AI / semis leadership (high confidence) — moves are being driven by this, not breadth今日单一宏观驱动明显主导盘面：AI/半导体领涨（高置信）— 行情由此驱动，而非全面宽度 The market-drivers leaf decomposes today's cross-asset move into competing macro fingerprints. Today one driver clearly dominates (high confidence) — moves are being driven by this one factor, not broad breadth. Deterministic attribution, never a scored signal.市场驱动叶子把今日的跨资产波动分解为相互竞争的宏观指纹。今日单一驱动明显主导（高置信）— 行情由这一个因素驱动，而非全面宽度。确定性归因，绝非评分信号。
Alerts fire only on genuine state changes — quiet most days is honest.警报仅在真正发生状态变化时触发 — 大多数日子平静是正常的。
Regime Playbook周期策略
Posture姿态
DEFENSIVE防御 CAREFUL谨慎 NEUTRAL中性 CONSTRUCTIVE积极 AGGRESSIVE进取
− Stagflation is the dangerous quad — defensives/banks/upstream hold up best; it is regime-unstable in China.滞胀是最危险的象限 — 防御／银行／上游相对抗跌；在中国周期不稳定。
− PBoC monetary conditions tightening (3/3 legs agree). ONE monetary-conditions vote.央行货币条件趋紧（3/3项指标同意）— 综合M2/剪刀差/社融的单次货币投票。
− Margin leverage crowded (90th percentile of float) — late-stage froth, tighten risk.融资杠杆拥挤（占流通市值 90 分位）— 后期泡沫，收紧风险。
Framework-preferred (macro quad)框架偏好（宏观象限）
Nonferrous Metals有色金属#14
Coal煤炭#5
Banks银行#3
Consumer Staples必需消费#1
Avoid right now现在回避
Healthcare医疗UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Coal煤炭UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Media传媒DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Securities & Brokers券商DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Innovative Drugs创新药DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Where we are in this regime周期中的位置

37 trading days in个交易日

What's likely next接下来可能
Reflation再通胀 60%
Goldilocks理想增长 30%
Growth scare增长恐慌 10%

⚖️ China regimes are shorter and less stable than the US — this is a risk-context map with measured odds, not a forecast. No stable single-sector outperformance signal exists at monthly horizons, so the dial sizes risk and the sector names are filters, not buy calls.中国的周期比美国更短、更不稳定 — 这是带有实测概率的风险背景图，而非预测。月度尺度上不存在稳定的单一板块跑赢信号，故刻度盘用于衡量风险、板块名称仅作过滤，而非买入指令。

Calendar — Next 14 Days日历 — 未来14天
Date日期Release数据Importance重要性
2026-10-31 +1d天 NBS PMI (mfg + non-mfg)国家统计局 PMI（制造业＋非制造业） HIGH高
2026-11-02 +3d天 Caixin Manufacturing PMI财新制造业 PMI MED中
2026-11-04 +5d天 Caixin Services PMI财新服务业 PMI MED中
2026-11-09 +10d天 Customs trade (exports/imports)海关进出口数据 HIGH高
2026-11-09 +10d天 FX reserves (SAFE)外汇储备（外管局） MED中
2026-11-10 +11d天 CPI (consumer prices)CPI（居民消费价格） HIGH高
2026-11-10 +11d天 Money supply, RMB loans & TSF货币供应、人民币贷款与社融 HIGH高
2026-11-10 +11d天 PPI (producer prices)PPI（工业生产者价格） HIGH高
Pure schedule — no forecasts. "Imminent" banner surfaces on the glance card when a release is ≤1 day away.纯日程 — 无预测。当数据发布时间≤1天时，速览卡上显示"临近"提示。
Built生成于 2026-10-30 13:08 UTC
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