Growth-scare增长恐慌 · mid中期 LIVE实时 2026-09-15
0 50 100 35 / 100
35Risk-off避险 ▶
GREEN — TREND-FOLLOWING SUPPORTED偏多 — 支持趋势跟随 YELLOW — TRADE WITH CAUTION中性 — 谨慎交易 RED — DEFEND CAPITAL避险 — 优先保住本金

Risk-off — stress is elevated; defend capital first.避险 — 压力升高；优先防守。

→ Mixed when trend & technicals firms up (now 28/100).→ 若趋势与技术转强（现 28/100），则转「混合」。
Factor breakdown因子分解 — 6 signals信号
Trend & technicals趋势与技术 28
Risk appetite风险偏好 49
Volatility & froth波动与拥挤 53
Breadth & participation广度与参与 9
PBoC liquidity & credit央行流动性与信用 16
Downturn-risk guard下行风险护栏 63
Full breakdown ↓完整分解 ↓
Pullback risk radar回撤风险雷达
94Breadth breakdown (all-boats)广度普跌（普跌）
~50% chance of a ≥5% pullback within a month · 1.6× the usual odds未来一个月内出现≥5%回撤的概率约50% · 约为平时的1.6倍
Breadth breakdown (all-boats)广度普跌（普跌）99
US rate shock美债利率冲击88
Capital outflow / FX资本外流／汇率53
Full risk detail ↓完整风险详情 ↓
11-session path 近 11 交易日走势 Score vs time综合评分 · 时序
CHINA DASHBOARD中国看板2026-09-15
SSE
Shanghai上证综指
3,864.3
-0.5%
CSI 300
Large cap沪深300
—
—
ChiNext
Growth创业板
—
—
HSI
Hang Seng恒生
24,667
-1.0%
What To Do该怎么做
◐
NEUTRAL中性
+
Growth-scare is the market's measured best contrarian bottom (~70% hit) — accumulate quality into the fear.增长恐慌是实测最佳的逆向底部（命中率约70%）— 在恐慌中吸纳优质资产。
−
PBoC monetary conditions tightening (3/3 legs agree). ONE monetary-conditions vote.央行货币条件趋紧（3/3项指标同意）— 综合M2/剪刀差/社融的单次货币投票。
−
Margin leverage crowded (90th percentile of float) — late-stage froth, tighten risk.融资杠杆拥挤（占流通市值 90 分位）— 后期泡沫，收紧风险。
📅
Next high-impact China print: IP, FAI & retail sales today (Sep 15).下一项高影响中国数据：工业增加值、固投与社零今天（9月15日）。Highest-impact print soon近期最重要数据
Upcoming Events近期数据 NEXT 14 DAYS未来14天
2 high-impact print ahead项高影响数据待发
IP, FAI & retail sales工业增加值、固投与社零
2026-09-15
HIGH高
LPR fix (loan pri…LPR 报价（贷款市场报价利率）
2026-09-21
HIGH高
Pullback Risk回撤风险 HIGH高
94 /100
Breadth breakdown (all-boats)广度普跌（普跌）
≥5% dip odds≥5%回撤概率50%
Deep-drawdown gauge深跌仪表 Elevated偏高
Protect capital: raise cash, no new chases.保住本金：提高现金、勿追新高。
Market Sentiment市场情绪
PANIC 恐慌 EUPHORIA 亢奋
Active活跃
Composite at 87 · a heads-up, not a scored signal 综合指数 87 · 仅供参考，不构成评分信号
Sector Temperature板块温度
Hot热门
Banks银行Coal煤炭
Turning up — buy zone回升中 — 买入区
Healthcare医疗Solar & Photovoltaic光伏
Sector heat板块热度
Policy Monitor政策监控
PBoC stance央行立场easing宽松
Reserve ratio存准率9.0%
Credit impulse信贷脉冲-10.7%
Official tone官方基调supportive / pro-growth lean偏积极 / 稳增长
Easy policy, but new credit is still slowing.政策宽松，但新信贷仍在放缓。
Connect Flows互联通资金
+¥9亿
Southbound buying南向买入
Streak连续15/20 days天
Top buys主要买入智谱 · 盈富基金 · 长飞光纤光缆
Mainland money supporting Hong Kong.内地资金持续支撑香港。
Macro News宏观新闻
🏦
央行研究局局长王信：人工智能发展带来的水资源消耗值得高度关注 Monetary policy · 华尔街见闻
🏦
8月上海人民币贷款增加140亿元，人民币存款增加314亿元 Monetary policy · 华尔街见闻
24 of/ 708 stories kept · full feed →条新闻保留 · 完整新闻流 →
Property房地产
Contraction收缩
still contracting仍在收缩
70-city prices70城价格-34 net cities净城市数
Still the economy's main drag.仍是经济的主要拖累。
AI BriefAI 简报
China regime: Growth-ScareA股格局：Growth-Scare Policy: On hold政策：按兵不动

Growth-scare: growth is still cooling, no sign of a turn yet.增长恐慌：增长仍在降温，尚无见底迹象。

A read-through of signals — not a signal source.信号解读 — 非信号来源。
Alerts Centre警报中心
No alerts fired today.今日无警报触发。
A-Share StocksA股个股 Market Heatmap市场热力图 China Intel中国情报 Allocation仓位策略 Regime History周期历史 AI BriefAI简报
Data health数据健康度 · 7 of 7 feeds fresh 7/7 数据新鲜 · updated更新于 2026-09-15 ▾
Market State — Evidence & Signals市场状态 — 证据与信号
What the composite measures综合指标测量 · 35/100 Risk-off避险
Trend & technicals趋势与技术
0/3 China indices in an uptrend across timeframes (downtrend, downtrend, downtrend).0/3 个A股指数多周期呈上升趋势。
 28
Risk appetite风险偏好
Cross-asset RORO neutral; 56% of legs agree跨资产 RORO 中性；56% 信号同向
 49
Volatility & froth波动与拥挤
QVIX fear calm; margin froth crowdedQVIX 恐慌平静；融资拥挤
 53
Breadth & participation广度与参与
Breadth 8%ile of 5y; confirming price广度处于五年 8 百分位；确认价格
 9
PBoC liquidity & credit央行流动性与信用
PBoC liquidity contracting; slowdown high央行流动性收缩；经济放缓高
 16
Downturn-risk guard下行风险护栏
Slowdown high; drawdown-risk band low经济放缓高；回撤风险区间低
 63
Signals — do they agree?各信号 — 是否一致？
Macro regime宏观周期 Growth-scareGrowth-scare
Growth axis增长轴 falling下行
PBoC liquidity央行流动性 tightening收紧
Risk appetite (RORO)风险偏好（RORO） neutral中性
Slowdown gauge放缓仪表 high高
Drawdown risk回撤风险 low低
59% agreement一致度 · solid — well-supported扎实 — 支撑充分 · cautious but fragile谨慎（但脆弱）
drawdown risk low vs regime cautious回撤风险低 对阵周期谨慎
The regime — and where it's headed当前周期 — 及走向
Regime周期Growth-scare增长恐慌
Regime watch周期预警 Stable稳定
Signal agreement信号一致度59%
Cycle backdrop商业周期mid中期

Confirming确认: growth_pmi_nonmfg, growth_indpro_trend, growth_cyclical_defensive, growth_breadth_direction, inflation_cpi_direction, inflation_ppi_direction

Contradicting矛盾: inflation_inflation_beta_basket

Market drivers市场驱动
Index指数1D7D30DRead判断
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
— — — Downtrend下降趋势
A-Share PhaseA股阶段
Context, not a forecast. China-native composite — options-fear and margin-froth legs stand in for VIX/HY.仅供参考，非预测。中国本土综合指标——期权恐慌与两融拥挤腿代替VIX/HY。
Markets — Index Health & Cross-Asset市场 — 指数健康与跨资产
Index health指数健康度
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE上证综指
3864.28
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -8.9% off high距高点
CSI 300 ETF沪深300 ETF
4.52
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -11.2% off high距高点
SHENZHEN COMPONENT深证成指
13287.97
Below下方 200d ✕ Below下方 50d ✕ -18.8% off high距高点
HANG SENG恒生指数
24,667 -1.0%
live-patched intraday盘中实时更新
Sector temperature板块温度
Leading sectors领先板块
▲ Defense & Military国防军工#1
▲ Banks银行#2
▲ Coal煤炭#3
▲ Media传媒#4
Lagging sectors落后板块
▽ Innovative Drugs创新药#16
▽ Semiconductors半导体#15
▽ New-Energy Vehicle新能源车#14
▽ Baijiu & Liquor白酒#13
A-share sector heatmapA股板块热力图
Key rates & cross-asset关键利率与跨资产
Context only — click a sector or name to open in the Terminal.仅供参考 — 点击板块或个股在终端中查看。
Market Sentiment — Breakdown市场情绪 — 分解
Margin crowd meter两融拥挤度
2.64%
Pctile分位90
Maint. ratio维持担保272.7%
20d net buy20日净买入 -680
Sentiment thermometer情绪温度计
¥1.64T万亿
Band区间active活跃
Turnover heat成交热度87th percentile第87百分位 — elevated — 偏高
Limit-up / down涨停 / 跌停32 / 27
A heads-up, not a scored signal.仅供参考，不构成评分信号。
Sectors — Ladder, Rotation & Breadth板块 — 阶梯、轮动与宽度
Act on now现在行动
Buy zone买入区
Healthcare医疗 · #5Solar & Photovoltaic光伏 · #6
Avoid回避
Consumer Staples必需消费 · #7Technology科技 · #8Securities & Brokers券商 · #9Real Estate房地产 · #10Nonferrous Metals有色金属 · #11Automobiles汽车 · #12Baijiu & Liquor白酒 · #13New-Energy Vehicle新能源车 · #14Semiconductors半导体 · #15Innovative Drugs创新药 · #16
Leaders领先
Banks银行Coal煤炭
Rotation vs CSI 300相对沪深300轮动
Sector板块Rank排名5d20d60dTrend趋势Read判断
Defense & Military国防军工 1 +0.2% +3.1% -0.6% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Banks银行 2 +2.7% +11.2% +18.4% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Coal煤炭 3 -0.3% +5.9% +19.1% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Media传媒 4 -5.2% +1.7% +6.6% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Healthcare医疗 5 -0.5% -0.5% +21.7% ▲ BOTTOMING筑底中
Solar & Photovoltaic光伏 6 -1.8% -6.4% -13.8% ▼ NEARING A LOW接近低点
Consumer Staples必需消费 7 -2.1% +3.2% +15.8% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Technology科技 8 +0.3% -5.5% -13.9% ▶ UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Securities & Brokers券商 9 -1.4% +2.9% +1.1% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Real Estate房地产 10 -5.1% +0.3% +3.6% ▼ DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Breadth — is the move broad?宽度 — 行情是否广泛？
Above 50-day50日上方47.8%
Above 200-day200日上方31.4%
Advancers vs decliners涨跌家数666 / 1007
New highs − lows新高-新低-17
Key ratios关键比价
Large vs mid大盘 vs 中盘-5.0%
Small vs large小盘 vs 大盘-1.9%
Ranked by the fast 5–10 day turn vs CSI 300, with the 20-day trend and overbought as guards.按相对沪深300的5–10日快速转向排序，20日趋势与超买作为约束。
Policy & Credit — PBoC, Impulse & Tape政策与信贷 — 央行、脉冲与盘面
PBoC policy — reserve ratio央行政策 — 存准率
9.0% easing宽松
Date日期Move变动To至
2025-05-07cut降 0.50pp9.0%
2024-09-27cut降 0.50pp9.5%
2024-01-24cut降 0.50pp10.0%
2023-09-14cut降 0.25pp10.5%
Official tone官方基调
Band区间supportive / pro-growth lean偏积极 / 稳增长
Trend趋势firming走强
Credit impulse & macro tape信贷脉冲与宏观盘面
Credit impulse信贷脉冲-10.7%
M1−M2 scissorsM1−M2剪刀差-3.4pp
Macro tape宏观盘面Fixed-asset inv.固定资产投资 -13.5% · Retail sales社会消费品零售 +0.4% · Exports出口 +25.0% · Imports进口 +28.2%
Margin / market cap融资余额 / 市值2.64% · 5d +0.29%
Credit-impulse direction is one of the two reads that historically led this market.信贷脉冲方向是历史上领先该市场的两个读数之一。
Connect Flows — Southbound & Smart Money互联通资金 — 南向与聪明钱
Southbound flow · mainland → Hong Kong南向资金 · 内地 → 香港
+¥9亿
20-day cumulative20日累计+¥139亿
Buy-day streak净买入天数15/20
Total HK holdings港股持仓市值¥12.0T万亿
Connect leaderboard互联通龙虎榜 · 2026-09-15
Northbound — most-active A-shares北向 — 最活跃A股
Stock股票Turnover亿成交亿Day当日
宁德时代 300750 44.74 -6.2%
中国巨石 600176 31.78 +4.0%
中际旭创 300308 26.49 -1.0%
寒武纪 688256 18.45 +3.4%
新易盛 300502 18.36 -1.2%
Southbound — mainland net南向 — 内地净买
Buys买入Net亿净亿
智谱+5.9
盈富基金+5.8
长飞光纤光缆+2.1
中国海洋石油+1.4
A risk-appetite read, not a signal.风险偏好读数，非交易信号。
Property & Fiscal房地产与财政
70-city price breadth70城价格宽度
-34 net cities净城市 · 15↑ 49↓ 6→
Builder climate景气指数
NBS climate index国房景气91.45
Construction demand建材需求
Steel + iron-ore gauge钢铁+铁矿指标-0.15
Fiscal & market stress财政与市场压力
10Y government yield10年期国债1.687%
Property stocks地产股-36.2% from距 ATH
Tone: stress, easing at the margin. Still the economy's main drag.基调：压力，边际宽松。仍是经济的主要拖累。
AI Brief — China SynthesisAI简报 — 中国综合
AI Daily Brief · China & HK synthesisAI 每日简报 · 中港综合
2026-09-11 Updated daily每日更新
A read-through of existing signals — not a signal source仅为现有信号的汇总解读 — 非独立信号源
The gist要点
  • Growth-scare: growth is still cooling, no sign of a turn yet.增长恐慌：增长仍在降温，尚无见底迹象。
  • Easing stuck: rate cuts delivered, but money has not reached the system.宽松受阻：降息已落地，但资金尚未进入体系。
  • Banks stretched: biggest winners now face fading smart money.银行承压：最大赢家如今面临聪明钱退潮。
  • HK split: mainland bends to China liquidity, Hong Kong to global fear.香港分化：内地屈从于中国流动性，香港屈从于全球恐慌。
What to do: Watch — don't chase 对策：观望——不要追高
Key readings关键读数
China regimeA股格局 Growth-ScareGrowth-Scare Policy政策 On hold按兵不动 System money系统流动性 Tightening收紧 Hong Kong香港 Neutral中性 HK dollar港元 At weak edge — watching贴近弱方 — 需留意 Leading sector领涨板块 CoalCoal
Confidence: Medium置信度：中as of数据截至 2026-09-11
The full read完整解读
We are firmly in the growth-scare patch of the map, and growth has cooled hard over the past week — from a mildly positive reading to a clearly negative one. Nothing here says the slide has stopped. The one small consolation: inflation is warming just a touch, but not enough to change the picture. Hong Kong sits in the same patch, but the driver there is different — plain global risk-off, not a China problem alone. 我们正处于增长恐慌区，过去一周增长急剧降温——从轻微正值读数跌至明显负值。目前没有任何迹象表明下滑已经停止。唯一的小安慰是：通胀略有升温，但不足以改变整体局面。香港处于同一区域，但驱动因素不同——纯粹是全球避险情绪，而非仅仅是中国自身的问题。
⚖︎ Where signals disagree⚖︎ 信号分歧
  • Policy delivered cuts, but the money desk still says neutral: easing is priced, not yet flowing through the system.政策已兑现降息，但资金面仍显示中性：宽松已被定价，尚未真正传导至系统中。
  • News flow is supportive and pro-growth, yet bank and broker smart money is distributing — the crowd is talking while insiders quietly sell.消息面偏多且支持增长，但银行和券商的聪明钱正在派发——人群在高谈阔论，内部人士却在悄悄卖出。
  • Coal and banks lead the market, but their smart-money signals point the other way — a stretched trade, not a fresh one.煤炭和银行领涨市场，但其聪明钱信号却指向相反方向——这是一笔过度拉伸的交易，而非新启动的行情。
⛓︎ Chain reactions⛓︎ 连锁反应
  • If the reserve and rate cuts do not translate into looser system liquidity → the crash in broker and property shares becomes the next leg down.如果降准降息未能转化为更宽松的系统流动性，那么券商和地产股的暴跌将成为下一轮下跌。
  • If global risk-off keeps lifting volatility in Hong Kong → tech names keep dragging while mainland defensives stay the only refuge.如果全球避险情绪持续推高香港市场的波动率，科技股将继续承压，而内地防御性板块仍是唯一避风港。
♻︎ Playbook check♻︎ 剧本对照
The easing-to-reflation chain is running backwards: cuts are in, but liquidity and brokers have not confirmed — the sequence is broken for now. 宽松到再通胀的传导链条正在反向运行：降息已经落地，但流动性和券商尚未确认——这一序列目前是断裂的。
What to watch关注事项
  • Next China activity data: does growth stop sliding, or is this the new trend? 下一次中国经济活动数据：增长能否止住下滑，还是这已成为新趋势？
  • Loan prime rate fix: any cut that actually moves the system corridor. 贷款市场报价利率：是否会有真正推动系统性利率走廊下移的降息？
  • Bank smart-money flow: if distribution deepens, the leader trade has turned. 银行主力资金流向：如果派发加剧，龙头交易已经转向。
Research context only — not a signal. Generated nightly from the dashboards; full brief at仅供研究参考 — 非交易信号。每晚由看板生成；完整简报位于 aibrief.html.
Macro News & Official Policy Tone宏观新闻与官方政策基调
Official tone — CCTV 新闻联播官方基调 — 央视新闻联播
Band区间supportive / pro-growth lean偏积极 / 稳增长 — firming走强
Today's feed今日新闻 · 24 of/ 708 stories kept条保留
🏦
央行研究局局长王信：人工智能发展带来的水资源消耗值得高度关注 Monetary policy货币政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 82/100
🏦
8月上海人民币贷款增加140亿元，人民币存款增加314亿元 Monetary policy货币政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
📰
China’s factory-gate price growth picks up in August as Iran war fuels energy volatility Inflation物价 · SCMP - China Economy · 84/100
📰
张国清出席第五届北斗规模应用国际峰会开幕式并致辞 Policy政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
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流动性“收长放短”，9月买断式逆回购停止加量 Monetary policy货币政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 68/100
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锦富技术：子公司拟10.14亿元投建新材料东部生产基地 Credit信用 · 金十数据 · 60/100
📰
最新房价数据出炉！释放什么信号？ Markets市场 · 证券时报 · 68/100
🏦
日本增长战略大臣城内实重申支持“高压经济”理念 Monetary policy货币政策 · 华尔街见闻 · 57/100
📰
资本市场波动加大，8月居民存款搬家节奏放缓 非银存款同比少增或指向股市、理财等资管产品赚钱效应不及去年同期。 Growth增长 · 第一财经 · 68/100
📰
China’s inbound tourism revenue projected to reach US$470 billion by 2040: UBS Growth增长 · SCMP - China Economy · 70/100
open full feed →打开完整新闻流 →
Headlines stay in their native language.标题保持原始语言。
Alerts Centre警报中心

Quiet today — no alerts fired.今日平静 — 无警报触发。

Alerts fire only on genuine state changes — quiet most days is honest.警报仅在真正发生状态变化时触发 — 大多数日子平静是正常的。
Regime Playbook周期策略
Posture姿态
DEFENSIVE防御 CAREFUL谨慎 NEUTRAL中性 CONSTRUCTIVE积极 AGGRESSIVE进取
+ Growth-scare is the market's measured best contrarian bottom (~70% hit) — accumulate quality into the fear.增长恐慌是实测最佳的逆向底部（命中率约70%）— 在恐慌中吸纳优质资产。
− PBoC monetary conditions tightening (3/3 legs agree). ONE monetary-conditions vote.央行货币条件趋紧（3/3项指标同意）— 综合M2/剪刀差/社融的单次货币投票。
− Margin leverage crowded (90th percentile of float) — late-stage froth, tighten risk.融资杠杆拥挤（占流通市值 90 分位）— 后期泡沫，收紧风险。
Framework-preferred (macro quad)框架偏好（宏观象限）
Banks银行#2
Consumer Staples必需消费#7
Healthcare医疗#5
Avoid right now现在回避
Solar & Photovoltaic光伏NEARING A LOW接近低点
Consumer Staples必需消费DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Technology科技UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向
Securities & Brokers券商DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Real Estate房地产DOWNTREND下跌趋势
Where we are in this regime周期中的位置

5 trading days in个交易日

What's likely next接下来可能
Goldilocks理想增长 83%
Stagflation滞胀 13%
Reflation再通胀 4%

⚖️ China regimes are shorter and less stable than the US — this is a risk-context map with measured odds, not a forecast. No stable single-sector outperformance signal exists at monthly horizons, so the dial sizes risk and the sector names are filters, not buy calls.中国的周期比美国更短、更不稳定 — 这是带有实测概率的风险背景图，而非预测。月度尺度上不存在稳定的单一板块跑赢信号，故刻度盘用于衡量风险、板块名称仅作过滤，而非买入指令。

Calendar — Next 14 Days日历 — 未来14天
Date日期Release数据Importance重要性
2026-09-15 +0d天 IP, FAI & retail sales工业增加值、固投与社零 HIGH高
2026-09-15 +0d天 MLF operation (PBoC)MLF 操作（央行中期借贷便利） MED中
2026-09-21 +6d天 LPR fix (loan prime rate)LPR 报价（贷款市场报价利率） HIGH高
Pure schedule — no forecasts. "Imminent" banner surfaces on the glance card when a release is ≤1 day away.纯日程 — 无预测。当数据发布时间≤1天时，速览卡上显示"临近"提示。
Built生成于 2026-09-15 12:14 UTC
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