International macro command center国际宏观指挥中心

🇬🇧United Kingdom Macro英国宏观

United Kingdom national economy; FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are market context.英国全国经济；富时100与富时250仅作市场背景。

Defensive防御
Data through数据截至 2026-09-11 ·Built生成 2026-09-15 00:06 UTC Limited coverage覆盖有限
Defensive posture防御姿态
Cut rate-sensitive risk if gilt, mortgage and sterling stress reinforce each other.若国债、按揭与英镑压力相互强化，降低利率敏感风险。

50 + growth impulse − inflation pressure − recession stress + liquidity + current calibrated-risk state. Descriptive, not a forecast.50 + 增长脉冲 − 通胀压力 − 衰退压力 + 流动性 + 当前校准风险状态。仅作描述，不是预测。

Regime周期
Stagflation
Liquidity流动性
Unknown
Recession stress衰退压力
10.00/100
Source state数据状态
Stale inputs输入陈旧

Pullback risk回撤风险

Odds measured on this market's own history — windows, not certainties, re-drawn nightly.概率基于本市场自身历史测算 — 是概率窗口而非定论，每晚重算。

📡
Risk Radar风险雷达 WATCH观察 · 59/100 ?Pullback-risk gauge. Use high readings to trim risk, not to pick stocks.回撤风险仪表。高读数用于降风险，不用于选股。
US rate shock美债利率冲击
Advisory — sizes risk; does not override the measured tape.提示性信号——仅调整仓位，不覆盖实测盘面。
×0.97gross建议仓位
Pullback odds回撤概率 ≥5% drop · measured vs normal≥5% · 实测对比常态
19%within 21 days21 日内
1.0× vs normal对比常态 19%
4%
5d5日
9%
10d10日
19%
21d21日
normal常态
US rate shock美债利率冲击 86 Sterling depreciation / outflows英镑贬值／资金外流 56 Parabolic extension / exhaustion抛物线伸展／透支 49
Leading领先信号US 2-year yield jump美债2年利率跳升 95th第95百分位 ✓ · US 10-year yield jump美债10年利率跳升 89th第89百分位 ✓
Do应对A risk is building — stay normal, just watch it.风险在积累 — 保持正常，留意即可。
🧾 Track record往绩12 graded已评分 · not yet moving the verdict尚未参与定调 ?Past-year hit rate: too few graded alerts yet (daily readings — consecutive days overlap) | Watch/caution: on 0 of 8 watch/caution days a drop followed | Recovery: too few graded过去一年命中率：暂无足够评分记录（按日读数——连续日期相互重叠） | 观察/谨慎：8 个观察/谨慎日中有 0 天先于下跌 | 修复信号：暂无足够评分

Command cards指挥卡片

Open any card for evidence, definitions and provenance.打开任一卡片查看证据、定义与来源。

60-session decision path60交易日决策路径

Same descriptive scoring rule through history; the current risk-state adjustment is excluded from prior points.历史沿用同一描述性规则；过往点位不含当前风险状态调整。

2026-06-22range区间 26–632026-09-11

Local macro lenses本地宏观视角

Country-specific questions, not generic labels with the flag changed.国家专属问题，而非仅替换国旗的通用标签。

BoE policy英央行政策

Services inflation and wages dominate the reaction function.服务通胀与工资主导政策反应函数。

3.71%
Bank of England

Services inflation服务通胀

The clearest domestic persistence test.最清晰的国内通胀黏性检验。

3.40% y/y
Office for National Statistics

Wage growth工资增长

Real-income support versus persistence risk.实际收入支持与通胀黏性风险的平衡。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Office for National Statistics

Gilt curve英国国债曲线

Links policy, fiscal risk and mortgage pricing.连接货币政策、财政风险与按揭定价。

1.23pp
Bank of England

Housing & mortgages住房与按揭

A high-frequency household cash-flow transmission channel.家庭现金流的高频传导渠道。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Bank of England

Fiscal context财政背景

Supply, taxes and issuance can alter the rate path.供给、税收与发债可改变利率路径。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Office for Budget Responsibility

Sterling英镑

Imported inflation and cross-border confidence signal.输入性通胀与跨境信心信号。

1.35
Bank of England

Verified policy calendar已核实政策日历

Past dates show a released state; the dashboard does not invent the decision outcome.过去日期显示已发布状态；看板不虚构决议结果。

2026-06-18

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee英格兰银行货币政策委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-07-30

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee英格兰银行货币政策委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-09-17

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee英格兰银行货币政策委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-11-05

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee英格兰银行货币政策委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-12-17

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee英格兰银行货币政策委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming

Source health & data contract数据健康与数据契约

Official where practical; every fallback and gap remains visible.尽可能采用官方源；每项备用源与缺口均保持可见。

Provider提供方Role用途Cadence频率Access访问Status状态
Bank of EnglandPolicy, SONIA, gilt curve, money, credit and mortgagesDaily / monthlyOfficial IADB downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Office for National StatisticsCPI, wages, labour, GDP, production, trade and housingRelease dependentKeyless v1 beta APIauthoritative target / active where mapped
Office for Budget ResponsibilityFiscal context and forecast assumptionsForecast-event dependentOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official-source republisher)Operational fallback for OECD, Eurostat and central-bank seriesSource dependentKeyless CSVactive fallback
Known limitation:已知限制： ONS labour-market estimates carry survey-response and methodology uncertainty; the dashboard treats labour as one input, not a standalone trigger.ONS劳动力市场估计受调查回复率与方法变化影响；本看板将就业视为一项输入，而非独立触发器。

Where next下一站

All five dashboards share this contract and interaction model.五个看板共享此数据契约与交互模型。

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