International macro command center国际宏观指挥中心

🇰🇷South Korea Macro韩国宏观

Republic of Korea national economy; KOSPI is market context.大韩民国全国经济；KOSPI仅作市场背景。

Defensive防御
Data through数据截至 2026-09-11 ·Built生成 2026-09-15 00:06 UTC Limited coverage覆盖有限
Defensive posture防御姿态
Reduce leverage sensitivity: won stress and household credit can amplify a slowdown.降低杠杆敏感度：韩元压力与家庭信贷可放大下行。

50 + growth impulse − inflation pressure − recession stress + liquidity + current calibrated-risk state. Descriptive, not a forecast.50 + 增长脉冲 − 通胀压力 − 衰退压力 + 流动性 + 当前校准风险状态。仅作描述，不是预测。

Regime周期
Stagflation
Liquidity流动性
Neutral
Recession stress衰退压力
39.00/100
Source state数据状态
Stale inputs输入陈旧

Pullback risk回撤风险

Odds measured on this market's own history — windows, not certainties, re-drawn nightly.概率基于本市场自身历史测算 — 是概率窗口而非定论，每晚重算。

📡
Risk Radar风险雷达 WATCH观察 · 64/100 ?Pullback-risk gauge. Use high readings to trim risk, not to pick stocks.回撤风险仪表。高读数用于降风险，不用于选股。
US rate shock美债利率冲击
Advisory — sizes risk; does not override the measured tape.提示性信号——仅调整仓位，不覆盖实测盘面。
×0.97gross建议仓位
Pullback odds回撤概率 ≥5% drop · measured vs normal≥5% · 实测对比常态
29%within 21 days21 日内
1.0× vs normal对比常态 29%
9%
5d5日
18%
10d10日
29%
21d21日
normal常态
US rate shock美债利率冲击 87 Parabolic extension / exhaustion抛物线伸展／透支 84 Won depreciation / outflows韩元贬值／资金外流 7
Leading领先信号US 2-year yield jump美债2年利率跳升 95th第95百分位 ✓ · US 10-year yield jump美债10年利率跳升 89th第89百分位 ✓
Do应对A risk is building — stay normal, just watch it.风险在积累 — 保持正常，留意即可。
🧾 Track record往绩11 graded已评分 · not yet moving the verdict尚未参与定调 ?Past-year hit rate: too few graded alerts yet (daily readings — consecutive days overlap) | Watch/caution: too few graded | Recovery: too few graded过去一年命中率：暂无足够评分记录（按日读数——连续日期相互重叠） | 观察/谨慎：暂无足够评分 | 修复信号：暂无足够评分

Command cards指挥卡片

Open any card for evidence, definitions and provenance.打开任一卡片查看证据、定义与来源。

60-session decision path60交易日决策路径

Same descriptive scoring rule through history; the current risk-state adjustment is excluded from prior points.历史沿用同一描述性规则；过往点位不含当前风险状态调整。

2026-06-22range区间 23–572026-09-11

Local macro lenses本地宏观视角

Country-specific questions, not generic labels with the flag changed.国家专属问题，而非仅替换国旗的通用标签。

BOK policy韩银政策

Policy must balance inflation, FX and household leverage.政策需平衡通胀、汇率与家庭杠杆。

2.91%
Bank of Korea ECOS

Exports & semiconductors出口与半导体

Korea’s fastest global-demand transmission channel.韩国最敏感的全球需求传导渠道。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy

Won pressure韩元压力

A live funding, inflation and foreign-flow stress signal.融资、通胀与外资流压力的实时信号。

1,348.17
Bank of Korea ECOS

Household credit家庭信贷

Leverage can mute consumption and constrain policy.杠杆可抑制消费并约束政策。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Bank of Korea ECOS

Housing pulse住房脉冲

Collateral and household-balance-sheet transmission.抵押品与家庭资产负债表传导。

Awaiting verified official adapter
KOSIS / Statistics Korea

Current account经常账户

Confirms whether export strength converts into external resilience.确认出口强势是否转化为外部韧性。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Bank of Korea ECOS

Verified policy calendar已核实政策日历

Past dates show a released state; the dashboard does not invent the decision outcome.过去日期显示已发布状态；看板不虚构决议结果。

2026-07-16

Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board韩国银行金融通货委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-08-27

Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board韩国银行金融通货委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-10-22

Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board韩国银行金融通货委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-11-26

Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board韩国银行金融通货委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming

Source health & data contract数据健康与数据契约

Official where practical; every fallback and gap remains visible.尽可能采用官方源；每项备用源与缺口均保持可见。

Provider提供方Role用途Cadence频率Access访问Status状态
Bank of Korea ECOSPolicy, money, credit, rates, current account and FXDaily / monthly / quarterlyRegistered OpenAPI keyauthoritative target / active where mapped
KOSIS / Statistics KoreaCPI, labour, production, housing and populationMonthly / quarterlyRegistered OpenAPI keyauthoritative target / active where mapped
Ministry of Trade, Industry and EnergyExports, imports and industryMonthlyOfficial releasesauthoritative target / active where mapped
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official-source republisher)Operational fallback for OECD, Eurostat and central-bank seriesSource dependentKeyless CSVactive fallback
Known limitation:已知限制： BOK ECOS and KOSIS OpenAPI require registered API keys for reliable automation; the live plane uses explicit OECD/FRED fallbacks where configured.韩银ECOS与KOSIS OpenAPI的可靠自动化需要注册API密钥；当前数据层在已配置处明确使用OECD/FRED备用源。

Where next下一站

All five dashboards share this contract and interaction model.五个看板共享此数据契约与交互模型。

World comparison全球对比 JapanSouth KoreaEuro AreaUnited KingdomIndia