🇭🇰 HK Stock Desk港股研判台
Growth-scare增长恐慌 Neutral中性 ?Ranks HK names by three cleaner edges — southbound flow, A/H value, and strength after removing global-risk beta. Risk-off favours cushions and mainland-buying; risk-on leads with amplifiers and relative-strength leaders; a neutral tape leans on flow and value. A research shortlist, not a buy list.按三条较干净的优势排序 —— 南向资金、A/H 价值、剥离全球风险贝塔后的强度。风险规避时偏好缓冲股与内地买入的标的;风险偏好时以放大器与相对强度领先股为主;中性行情依靠资金与价值。研究备选清单,非买入清单。What to Act On Now现在行动
v2
?
How to read this如何看懂
Four lanes, left to right四个分栏,从左到右
Buy now立即买入
A clean HK sector entry today.今天有干净的港股板块入场点。
In favour看好
Still good — but it has run. Wait for a dip.依然看好 — 但已经涨过。等回调。
Bottoming洗盘观察
Setting up near a cycle low. Watch only — never a buy signal.接近周期低点并开始形成形态。仅供观察 — 绝非买入信号。
Reduce / avoid减仓·回避
The trend is weakening — take profits or stay away.趋势正在转弱 — 止盈或回避。
This is a structure and risk map for sectors — not an allocation rule, and not a single-stock call.这是板块的结构与风险图 — 不是配置规则,也不是个股建议。sector positioning · timed by cycle stage · re-drawn nightly板块定位 · 按周期阶段定时机 · 每晚重绘
View all查看全部 4Show fewer收起
View all查看全部 9Show fewer收起
Prophet
1 actionable cards shown · 37 current names (29 stage board + 8 watch)显示 1 张可操作卡片 · 当前共 37 只(阶段榜单 29 + 观察 8)Data through数据截至 2026-09-15
Live entries first, then setups forming, then names that already ran or are blocked. Rank is a screen, not a promise.先看入场窗口已打开的,再看形态形成中的,最后是已启动或受阻的。排名是筛选,不是承诺。
Priority = signal 30% + entry 25% + edge 25% + runway 10% + setup quality 10%. It ranks how ready a name is to be acted on, for ordering this board — it is not a win probability. The hk_prophet_v2 forward record is accruing separately. edge and runway and setup quality currently contribute 0 for all 1 names — the readings behind them are not wired up yet, so the leg is scored as a zero rather than given the benefit of the doubt.优先级=信号30%+入场25%+优势25%+上行空间10%+形态质量10%。它衡量的是一只股票的可操作就绪度,用于给本榜排序 —— 并非胜率。hk_prophet_v2 的前瞻记录将单独积累。优势与上行空间与形态质量目前对全部 1 只股票都记 0 分 —— 其所依据的数据尚未接入,因此该项按 0 分计,而不是默认给分。
What changed: until 3 Aug this board also required a name trading below its 200-day average to close back above that average within two sessions. A name far below the line cannot do that, so its buy signals were refused until it had already recovered — which is why setups like Xiaomi and Alibaba never appeared during their July run. That requirement is gone; a name now needs its signal plus one session of follow-through. Expect roughly a third more names here, and deeper drawdowns on some of them.变更说明: 8月3日之前,本榜还要求股价低于200日均线的个股必须在两个交易日内重新收于该均线之上。 远低于均线的个股根本做不到,因此其买入信号会被拒绝,直到股价已经涨回 —— 这正是小米、 阿里巴巴等形态在7月上涨期间从未出现在榜单上的原因。该要求已取消;现在个股只需要信号 加上一个交易日的跟进确认。预计本榜个股数量将增加约三分之一,其中部分个股的回撤会更深。
| Stock个股 | Sector板块 | 3-mo momentum3个月动量 | off high距高点 | last signal上次信号 | entry入场 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1112.HK Health & Happiness健合集团 | Consumer消费 | +4.05 | -3.8% | 49 sessions ago49个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 2269.HK WuXi Biologics药明生物 | Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 | +4.04 | -5.7% | 58 sessions ago58个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 2359.HK WuXi AppTec药明康德 | Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 | +3.59 | -6.1% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 6160.HK BeiGene百济神州 | Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 | +2.17 | -7.2% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 1801.HK Innovent Biologics信达生物 | Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 | +1.62 | -13.5% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0656.HK Fosun International复星国际 | Industrials & TransportIndustrials & Transport | +1.57 | -12.9% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0019.HK Swire Pacific太古股份公司 | Exchange & Diversified交易所与综合企业 | +1.42 | -5.7% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0144.HK China Merchants Port招商局港口 | Industrials & TransportIndustrials & Transport | +1.22 | -4.0% | 43 sessions ago43个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0316.HK Orient Overseas东方海外 | Exchange & Diversified交易所与综合企业 | +1.11 | -15.5% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0639.HK Shougang Resources首钢资源 | Materials原材料 | +1.04 | -15.8% | 43 sessions ago43个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0135.HK Kunlun Energy昆仑能源 | Energy能源 | +0.91 | -9.1% | 43 sessions ago43个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 3988.HK Bank of China中国银行 | Financials & Banks金融与银行 | +0.86 | -2.1% | 0 days ago0天前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0939.HK China Construction Bank中国建设银行 | Financials & Banks金融与银行 | +0.82 | -2.8% | 37 sessions ago37个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 0998.HK CITIC Bank中信银行 | Financials & Banks金融与银行 | +0.77 | -0.8% | 37 sessions ago37个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
| 1038.HK CK Infrastructure长江基建集团 | Telecom & Utilities电信与公用事业 | +0.74 | -2.9% | 52 sessions ago52个交易日前 | wait for pullback等待回调 |
👁 On watch — strong edge, blocked entry (wait for a base)观察名单 — 优势强但入场受阻(等待筑底)
⚠ Weakest selection edge — distribution risk选股优势最弱 — 派发风险 ?The names whose selection edge — our stock-picking read, before any timing — sits lowest on the board tonight. It is NOT a statement that they are falling: a name can be up on the month and still be here, which usually reads as distribution, money leaving while the price holds. The figure is that edge scored against the rest of the HK board, and it is the number the list is ordered by. A name whose edge cannot be resolved at all sorts to the end rather than the front — an unknown edge is not evidence of a weak one.本栏是今晚全榜选股优势最低的个股 —— 选股优势指的是不考虑择时的选股读数。这并不表示它们正在下跌:一只月内上涨的股票同样可能出现在这里,通常意味着派发,即股价撑住而资金在流出。所标数值即该优势的 z 分(相对港股样本),也是本列表的排序依据。优势完全无法计算的个股排在末尾而非开头 —— 优势未知不等于优势弱。
0780.HK Tongcheng Travel -2.141347.HK Hua Hong Semiconductor -2.072333.HK Great Wall Motor -1.530288.HK WH Group -1.450014.HK Hysan Development -1.400960.HK Longfor Group -1.21
Evidence & Record证据与往绩
Methodology →方法论 →Finished trades show the price they were sold at. Rows still running show today's price and are not scored.已完成交易显示实际卖出价;进行中的标的显示今日价格,不计入评分。
Fast movers — 1-day momentum快速异动 — 1日动能 ?HK names that set off several same-day momentum triggers — a fresh cross, an overnight gap on the US listing, or a turn off a washout — and then ran. Hong Kong has no daily price limits, so a name that runs the same day is showing real demand. A heads-up, not a buy signal.今天同时触发了几个盘中动量信号的港股 —— 信号刚上穿、美股 ADR 隔夜跳空,或者从低位转上来 —— 然后就直接涨了。港股没有涨跌停,当天就能拉起来说明需求是真的。这是提示,不是买入信号。
as of截至 2026-09-15
Measured vs the market over 21 sessions · fills next close · track record accruing — not a buy list 以21个交易日相对大盘衡量 · 次日收盘成交 · 记录累积中 — 非买入清单
Washout Watch — deep decliners trying to turn洗盘观察 — 深跌股尝试转身 · High risk, unconfirmed — watch, don't chase.高风险、未确认 — 观察,勿追。
Also watching同时观察
A heads-up, not a buy signal — none has confirmed a turn. We log these forward to earn promotion later.这是提示,非买入信号 —— 均未确认转向。持续记录,待后续晋级评估。
🇨🇳 Mainland money内地资金 · Southbound flow — and where it's going南向资金 — 以及流向哪里 · 2026-09-14 ?Mainland money flowing into HK through Southbound Connect: how much (net flow), whether that flow is backing the HSI price trend, how cheap HK-listed H-shares look vs their mainland A-share twins, and which single names the mainland is adding to or trimming. A liquidity backdrop, not a buy signal.内地资金通过南向港股通流入港股:规模(净流入)、该资金是否支持恒指价格趋势、港股 H 相对 A 股孪生有多便宜、以及内地正在加仓或减仓哪些个股。流动性情况,非买入信号。
| China Life 2628.HK | +51.2% |
| China Pacific Insurance 2601.HK | +33.3% |
| Sinopec 0386.HK | +33.2% |
| China Construction Bank 0939.HK | +31.6% |
20-day rolling southbound net · last 2 years (¥100M)南向20日滚动净额 · 近两年(亿元)
↑ Mainland accumulating内地加仓 · 5-day holding growth5日持股增长
Per-name southbound holdings across个股南向持股,覆盖 406 sized HK names.只有规模的港股。 A liquidity backdrop, not a buy signal.流动性情况,非买入信号。
Sector Rotation板块轮动 · RS vs HSI相对恒生指数 ?Sectors ranked by relative strength vs the Hang Seng over 20 and 60 days. The strip above flags leadership handoffs — where money is rotating out of one theme and into a peer. Descriptive; no size or gate.板块按相对恒生指数20日与60日的强度排序。上方带状区标记领导权交接 —— 资金从某主题轮出、流入同类主题。描述性;不调仓、不设门控。
Loading…加载中…
| Sector板块 | Rank排名 | 20d RS20日相对 | 60d RS60日相对 | 200d200日 | %ile分位 | Cycle state周期状态 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare & Pharma医疗与制药 | 1 | +1.3 | +12.1 | ↑ | 72 | BOTTOMING筑底中⏱ 1d ago1天前 |
| Energy能源 | 2 | +7.7 | +3.9 | ↑ | 80 | BOTTOMING筑底中⏱ today今日 |
| Financials & Banks金融与银行 | 3 | +7.5 | +3.7 | ↑ | 99 | BOTTOMING筑底中⏱ today今日 |
| Exchange & Diversified交易所与综合企业 | 4 | +0.3 | +3.2 | ↑ | 93 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ today今日 |
| Industrials & TransportIndustrials & Transport | 5 | -0.9 | -3.5 | ↓ | 12 | NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ 2d ago2天前 |
| Telecom & Utilities电信与公用事业 | 6 | +1.5 | -3.8 | ↓ | 40 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ today今日 |
| Insurance保险 | 7 | +5.2 | -4.5 | ↓ | 46 | BOTTOMING筑底中⏱ 3d ago3天前 |
| Consumer消费 | 8 | -3.0 | -5.5 | ↓ | 1 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ 11d ago11天前 |
| Materials原材料 | 9 | -2.7 | -7.2 | ↓ | 23 | NEARING A LOW接近低点⏱ 1d ago1天前 |
| Gaming & Leisure博彩与休闲 | 10 | -3.9 | -7.9 | ↓ | 1 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ 3d ago3天前 |
| Property地产 | 11 | -4.3 | -8.4 | ↓ | 24 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ today今日 |
| Auto & EV汽车与新能源车 | 12 | -4.1 | -9.9 | ↓ | 4 | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向⏱ today今日 |
| Internet & Tech互联网与科技 | 13 | -6.9 | -10.5 | ↓ | 1 | DOWNTREND下跌趋势⏱ 4d ago4天前 |
Global-risk screener全球风险筛选 · Who amplifies global risk, who cushions it — the full HK list谁放大全球风险、谁缓冲 —— 完整港股名单 · 2026-09-15 ?HK single names are mostly risk exposures. Amplifiers (high beta) move more with global risk; cushions (low beta) move less. Beta measured to the S&P 500 overnight. Descriptive exposure, not a return forecast.港股个股主要是风险敞口。放大器(高贝塔)更随全球风险波动;缓冲股(低贝塔)波动较小。贝塔以隔夜标普500衡量。描述性敞口,非收益预测。
Global risk is neutral — these are exposures, not a tilt; amplifiers will move more in EITHER direction when the regime turns.全球风险中性 — 这是敞口而非倾向;当风险状态转变时,放大器在任一方向都会波动更大。 Current state:当前状态: Neutral.
Beta to S&P 500 overnight. Descriptive exposure, not a return forecast.对隔夜标普500的贝塔。描述性敞口,非收益预测。