📡 Divergence Radar背离雷达

China Divergence Radar中国背离雷达

Free, management-independent demand/policy/flow signals vs sector price · checkable · context only · scan run免费、独立于管理层的需求/政策/资金信号 vs 板块价格 · 可检验 · 仅供参考 · 扫描日期 2026-10-30

How to read: each card pairs a free macro/policy/flow signal with the sector it transmits to. POSITIVE = support improving while price still lags (potential catch-up); NEGATIVE = support fading while price still leads (potential vulnerability). Same-direction pairs stay silent. Every divergence is a dated, checkable hypothesis the ledger scores.解读：每张卡片将一个免费宏观/政策/资金信号与其传导的板块配对。正向＝支撑改善但价格仍滞后（潜在补涨）；负向＝支撑转弱但价格仍领先（潜在脆弱）。同向配对保持静默。每个背离都是有日期、可检验的假设，由台账评分。

Active divergences活跃背离 6/18

Positive正向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → New-energy vehicle新能源车 42
Sector net-flow +3.1% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 +3.1%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -6.8 (z -0.83) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-10-30
Candidates候选: 宁德时代 (300750.SZ)+0.79 · 湖南裕能 (301358.SZ)+0.74 · 亿纬锂能 (300014.SZ)+0.72 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If Sector net-flow is leading, New-energy vehicle should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若板块净流入领先，新能源车未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。
Negative负向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Coal煤炭 41
Sector net-flow -1.2% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -1.2%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +21.9 (z +2.22) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-10-30
Candidates候选: 中煤能源 (601898.SS)-0.55 · 600925.SS (600925.SS)-0.42 · 陕西煤业 (601225.SS)-0.14 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Coal's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，煤炭相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向 Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Banks银行 39
TSF impulse -6.4% (6m chg of 12m sum)社融脉冲 -6.4%（12月滚动和的6月变化）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +29.7 (z +1.78) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-09-01
Candidates候选: 建设银行 (601939.SS)-0.33 · 农业银行 (601288.SS)-0.18 · 交通银行 (601328.SS)-0.13 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If Credit impulse (TSF) is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若信用脉冲(社融)转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Defense国防军工 20
Sector net-flow -4.9% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -4.9%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +4.0 (z +0.39) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-10-30
Candidates候选: 航天电器 (002025.SZ)-0.32 · 航天电子 (600879.SS)-0.26 · 中国卫星 (600118.SS)-0.18 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Defense's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，国防军工相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向 Southbound flow南向资金 → Defense国防军工 19
Southbound 20d flow z -1.96南向20日净流入 z -1.96
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +4.0 (z +0.39) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-10-30
Candidates候选: 航天电器 (002025.SZ)-0.32 · 航天电子 (600879.SS)-0.26 · 中国卫星 (600118.SS)-0.18 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If Southbound flow is fading, Defense's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若南向资金转弱，国防军工相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Positive正向 PPI reflationPPI再通胀 → Nonferrous metals有色金属 16
PPI YoY +5.0% (+0.9 3m, reflation tilt)PPI同比 +5.0%（3月+0.9，再通胀倾向）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -4.1 (z -0.69) · track record历史: unproven未验证 · data as-of数据截至 2026-09-01
Candidates候选: 宏桥控股 (002379.SZ)+0.64 · 天山铝业 (002532.SZ)+0.56 · 中国铝业 (601600.SS)+0.54 (alt-data convergence另类数据共振)
If PPI reflation is leading, Nonferrous metals should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若PPI再通胀领先，有色金属未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。

In line (silent)一致（静默）

Signal and price agree — confirming, no divergence edge.信号与价格一致——确认，无背离信号。

Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Real estate房地产PBoC easing央行宽松 → Brokers券商PBoC easing央行宽松 → Real estate房地产Mfg PMI制造业PMI → Nonferrous metals有色金属Mfg PMI制造业PMI → New-energy vehicle新能源车PPI reflationPPI再通胀 → Coal煤炭Southbound flow南向资金 → Semiconductors半导体Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Banks银行Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Real estate房地产Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Brokers券商Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Nonferrous metals有色金属Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Semiconductors半导体Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内）Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企 → HSCEI (HK)恒生国企指数（港股）

Accountability ledger问责台账

55 logged已记录 22 resolved已结 59% held成立 33 open未结

Short-horizon record短周期记录

Horizon周期 Matured calls已到期判断 Positive calls held正向判断成立 Negative calls held负向判断成立
5d5日 48 44% (27) 62% (21)
10d10日 46 37% (27) 53% (19)
21d21日 42 52% (25) 59% (17)

graded through评分截至 2026-10-29 · provisional — windows overlap, still accruing初步——窗口重叠，仍在累积

a card is graded ~3 months (90 days) after it fires — these windows are early reads卡片在触发约3个月（90天）后评分——这些窗口是早期读数

Scored calls已评分判断

Fired触发 Signal → Sector信号→板块 Sign方向 RS at fire触发时RS Outcome结果 Status状态
2026-08-01 credit_impulse → Banks银行 Negative负向 +8.3 +19.5% Miss落空
2026-08-01 pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 -12.9 +6.2% Hit命中
2026-08-01 sector_flow → Banks银行 Negative负向 +8.3 +19.5% Miss落空
2026-08-01 sector_flow → Brokers券商 Negative负向 +6.6 -0.5% Hit命中
2026-08-01 southbound → Semiconductors半导体 Negative负向 +18.4 -15.4% Hit命中
2026-08-01 venue_offshore_gap → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） Positive正向 — +4.3% Hit命中
2026-07-17 credit_impulse → Banks银行 Negative负向 +0.6 +16.9% Miss落空
2026-07-17 sector_flow → Brokers券商 Negative负向 +4.6 +2.3% Miss落空
2026-07-16 sector_flow → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 -14.2 +10.3% Hit命中
2026-07-14 sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向 -18.8 +3.4% Hit命中
2026-07-07 venue_offshore_gap → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） Positive正向 — -1.8% Miss落空
2026-07-03 sector_flow → Defense国防军工 Positive正向 -8.7 -6.3% Miss落空
2026-07-03 sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 Positive正向 -6.7 -13.5% Miss落空
2026-07-01 pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 -20.2 +18.5% Hit命中
2026-07-01 sector_flow → Semiconductors半导体 Negative负向 +67.8 -21.1% Hit命中
2026-07-01 sector_flow → Banks银行 Positive正向 -14.3 +25.8% Hit命中
2026-07-01 sector_flow → Coal煤炭 Positive正向 -20.3 +25.2% Hit命中
2026-07-01 southbound → Semiconductors半导体 Negative负向 +75.2 -21.1% Hit命中
2026-06-20 pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 -21.8 +7.0% Hit命中
2026-06-20 pboc_easing → Brokers券商 Positive正向 -12.4 +8.7% Hit命中

Cross-venue outcomes are that pair's convergence measure, not a CSI 300 relative return.跨市场行的结果是该配对自身的收敛度量，不是相对沪深300的收益。

Open calls未结判断

Fired触发Signal → Sector信号→板块Sign方向
2026-10-29 ppi → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向
2026-10-21 sector_flow → Defense国防军工 Negative负向
2026-10-21 southbound → Defense国防军工 Negative负向
2026-10-16 sector_flow → Semiconductors半导体 Positive正向
2026-10-14 sector_flow → Brokers券商 Negative负向
2026-10-09 sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 Positive正向
2026-10-09 venue_offshore_gap → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） Positive正向
2026-10-08 sector_flow → Banks银行 Negative负向
2026-10-08 venue_ah_premium → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） Positive正向
2026-10-01 credit_impulse → Banks银行 Negative负向
2026-10-01 ppi → Coal煤炭 Negative负向
2026-10-01 sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向
2026-10-01 sector_flow → Coal煤炭 Negative负向
2026-09-20 sector_flow → Semiconductors半导体 Positive正向
2026-09-11 sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向
2026-09-09 ppi → Coal煤炭 Negative负向
2026-09-07 sector_flow → Brokers券商 Negative负向
2026-09-03 sector_flow → Real estate房地产 Positive正向
2026-09-03 sector_flow → Banks银行 Negative负向
2026-09-03 sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 Positive正向

Venue Divergence跨市场背离 1/3 active活跃

Cross-venue pairs: A/H premium z, offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs CSI 300), southbound flow vs HSCEI. Each fires only when its z exceeds the engine threshold vs its own trailing history. FX caveat: offshore-ETF gap embeds USDCNY moves — not stripped. Context only.跨市场配对：A/H溢价z值、离岸ETF差价（KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs 沪深300）、南向资金 vs 恒生国企。仅当z值超过引擎阈值时触发。注：离岸ETF差价含汇率影响，未剥离。仅供参考。
Positive正向 A/H premium zA/H溢价z值 100
A/H premium 39.0% (z +2.29 vs 1y history); CSI 300 price z -2.39A/H溢价 39.0%（z +2.29，相对1年历史）；沪深300价格z -2.39
zz值: +2.29 · data as-of数据截至 2026-10-30 · track record历史: unproven未验证 (0)
If A/H premium z leads, the onshore/HK price leg (CSI 300 (onshore)) should close the gap over ~3 months. A/H premium z vs CSI 300 price z — a two-leg pair. Premium widening (A-shares bid vs H) while CSI 300 price z is lagging its own history suggests onshore-relative demand has not yet been confirmed by price. Fires only when both legs disagree and |z| >= 1.0. DATA NOTE: premium embeds USDCNY/USDHKD FX, not FX-stripped. Direction unproven — accruing as Phase-0 candidate.若A/H溢价z值领先，境内/港股价格（沪深300（境内））应在约3个月内收敛。
Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企

Context only — a divergence is a checkable hypothesis, not a trade. No validated edge; the ledger tracks whether these calls hold.仅作背景——背离是可检验的假设，而非交易。无已验证优势；台账追踪这些判断是否成立。