📡 Divergence Radar背离雷达

China Divergence Radar中国背离雷达

Free, management-independent demand/policy/flow signals vs sector price · checkable · context only · as of免费、独立于管理层的需求/政策/资金信号 vs 板块价格 · 可检验 · 仅供参考 · 截至 2026-09-15

How to read: each card pairs a free macro/policy/flow signal with the sector it transmits to. POSITIVE = support improving while price still lags (potential catch-up); NEGATIVE = support fading while price still leads (potential vulnerability). Same-direction pairs stay silent. Every divergence is a dated, checkable hypothesis the ledger scores.解读：每张卡片将一个免费宏观/政策/资金信号与其传导的板块配对。正向＝支撑改善但价格仍滞后（潜在补涨）；负向＝支撑转弱但价格仍领先（潜在脆弱）。同向配对保持静默。每个背离都是有日期、可检验的假设，由台账评分。

Active divergences活跃背离 6/18

Positive正向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → New-energy vehicle新能源车 80
Sector net-flow +2.8% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 +2.8%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -16.3 (z -1.71) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 中伟新材 (300919.SZ) · 宁德时代 (300750.SZ) · 湖南裕能 (301358.SZ)
If Sector net-flow is leading, New-energy vehicle should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若板块净流入领先，新能源车未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。
Negative负向 Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Banks银行 36
TSF impulse -8.2% (6m chg of 12m sum)社融脉冲 -8.2%（12月滚动和的6月变化）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +17.7 (z +1.28) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 浦发银行 (600000.SS) · 光大银行 (601818.SS) · 北京银行 (601169.SS)
If Credit impulse (TSF) is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若信用脉冲(社融)转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Banks银行 29
Sector net-flow -1.4% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -1.4%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +17.7 (z +1.28) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 浦发银行 (600000.SS) · 光大银行 (601818.SS) · 北京银行 (601169.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Brokers券商 25
Sector net-flow -4.6% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -4.6%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +6.2 (z +0.50) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 长江证券 (000783.SZ) · 光大证券 (601788.SS) · 中信建投 (601066.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Brokers's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，券商相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Positive正向 Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Nonferrous metals有色金属 22
Sector net-flow +2.2% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 +2.2%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -3.5 (z -0.60) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 宏桥控股 (002379.SZ) · 紫金矿业 (601899.SS) · 云铝股份 (000807.SZ)
If Sector net-flow is leading, Nonferrous metals should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若板块净流入领先，有色金属未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。
Negative负向 PPI reflationPPI再通胀 → Coal煤炭 5
PPI YoY +3.8% (-0.1 3m, reflation tilt)PPI同比 +3.8%（3月-0.1，再通胀倾向）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +16.5 (z +2.20) · track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 中煤能源 (601898.SS) · 中国神华 (601088.SS) · 晋控煤业 (601001.SS)
If PPI reflation is fading, Coal's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若PPI再通胀转弱，煤炭相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。

In line (silent)一致（静默）

Signal and price agree — confirming, no divergence edge.信号与价格一致——确认，无背离信号。

Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Real estate房地产PBoC easing央行宽松 → Brokers券商PBoC easing央行宽松 → Real estate房地产Mfg PMI制造业PMI → Nonferrous metals有色金属Mfg PMI制造业PMI → New-energy vehicle新能源车PPI reflationPPI再通胀 → Nonferrous metals有色金属Southbound flow南向资金 → Semiconductors半导体Southbound flow南向资金 → Defense国防军工Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Real estate房地产Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Semiconductors半导体Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Defense国防军工Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Coal煤炭A/H premium zA/H溢价z值 → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内）Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内）Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企 → HSCEI (HK)恒生国企指数（港股）

Accountability ledger问责台账

41 logged已记录 0 resolved已结 41 open未结
Fired触发Signal → Sector信号→板块Sign方向Fwd rel后续相对Status状态
2026-09-11 sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-09-09 ppi → Coal煤炭 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-09-07 sector_flow → Brokers券商 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-09-03 sector_flow → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-09-03 sector_flow → Banks银行 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-09-03 sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-09-01 credit_impulse → Banks银行 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-09-01 pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-09-01 sector_flow → Defense国防军工 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-09-01 sector_flow → Coal煤炭 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-09-01 venue_offshore_gap → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-08-27 sector_flow → Defense国防军工 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-27 sector_flow → Semiconductors半导体 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-12 sector_flow → Real estate房地产 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-10 ppi → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-08 sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-08 sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 Positive正向 — Open未结
2026-08-06 sector_flow → Coal煤炭 Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-08-05 venue_southbound → HSCEI (HK)恒生国企指数（港股） Negative负向 — Open未结
2026-08-01 credit_impulse → Banks银行 Negative负向 — Open未结

Venue Divergence跨市场背离 0/3 active活跃

Cross-venue pairs: A/H premium z, offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs CSI 300), southbound flow vs HSCEI. Each fires only when its z exceeds the engine threshold vs its own trailing history. FX caveat: offshore-ETF gap embeds USDCNY moves — not stripped. Context only.跨市场配对：A/H溢价z值、离岸ETF差价（KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs 沪深300）、南向资金 vs 恒生国企。仅当z值超过引擎阈值时触发。注：离岸ETF差价含汇率影响，未剥离。仅供参考。
No active venue divergences — A/H premium, offshore ETF gap, and southbound flow are all within normal z range.当前无活跃跨市场背离——A/H溢价、离岸ETF差价及南向资金均在正常z值范围内。
A/H premium zA/H溢价z值Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企

Context only — a divergence is a checkable hypothesis, not a trade. No validated edge; the ledger tracks whether these calls hold.仅作背景——背离是可检验的假设，而非交易。无已验证优势；台账追踪这些判断是否成立。