How to read: each card pairs a free macro/policy/flow signal with the sector it transmits to. POSITIVE = support improving while price still lags (potential catch-up); NEGATIVE = support fading while price still leads (potential vulnerability). Same-direction pairs stay silent. Every divergence is a dated, falsifiable hypothesis the ledger scores.解读：每张卡片将一个免费宏观/政策/资金信号与其传导的板块配对。正向＝支撑改善但价格仍滞后（潜在补涨）；负向＝支撑转弱但价格仍领先（潜在脆弱）。同向配对保持静默。每个背离都是有日期、可证伪的假设，由台账评分。
📡 Active divergences活跃背离 4/16
Negative负向
Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Semiconductors半导体
57
Sector net-flow -2.6% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -2.6%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +31.7 (z +1.32)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 卓胜微 (300782.SZ) · 中芯国际 (688981.SS) · 长电科技 (600584.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Semiconductors's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，半导体相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Negative负向
Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Brokers券商
26
Sector net-flow -2.8% (东财 board, daily)板块净流入 -2.8%（东财行业板块，当日）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +5.6 (z +0.55)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 华泰证券 (601688.SS) · 国泰海通 (601211.SS) · 中国银河 (601881.SS)
If Sector net-flow is fading, Brokers's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若板块净流入转弱，券商相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
Positive正向
PBoC easing央行宽松 → Real estate房地产
13
12m easing score +20 (LPR +0bp, RRR -1.00pp)12月宽松分 +20（LPR +0基点，准备金 -1.00pp）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: -15.3 (z -0.52)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
If PBoC easing is leading, Real estate should outperform CSI 300 over ~3 months.若央行宽松领先，房地产未来约3个月应跑赢沪深300。
Negative负向
Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Banks银行
10
TSF impulse -5.7% (6m chg of 12m sum)社融脉冲 -5.7%（12月滚动和的6月变化）
Sector vs CSI 300 (63d)板块 vs 沪深300（63日）: +3.0 (z +0.51)
· track record历史: unproven未验证
🎯 Candidates候选: 中国银行 (601988.SS) · 建设银行 (601939.SS) · 江苏银行 (600919.SS)
If Credit impulse (TSF) is fading, Banks's lead over CSI 300 should fade over ~3 months.若信用脉冲(社融)转弱，银行相对沪深300的领先应在约3个月内消退。
🔇 In line (silent)一致（静默）
Signal and price agree — confirming, no divergence edge.信号与价格一致——确认，无背离信号。
Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) → Real estate房地产PBoC easing央行宽松 → Brokers券商Mfg PMI制造业PMI → Nonferrous metals有色金属Mfg PMI制造业PMI → New-energy vehicle新能源车Southbound flow南向资金 → Semiconductors半导体Southbound flow南向资金 → Defense国防军工Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Banks银行Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Real estate房地产Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Nonferrous metals有色金属Sector net-flow板块净流入 → New-energy vehicle新能源车Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Defense国防军工Sector net-flow板块净流入 → Coal煤炭A/H premium zA/H溢价z值 → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内）Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企 → HSCEI (HK)恒生国企指数（港股）
📒 Falsification ledger证伪台账
16 logged已记录
0 resolved已结
16 open未结
| Fired触发 | Signal → Sector信号→板块 | Sign方向 | Fwd rel后续相对 | Status状态 |
|---|
| 2026-07-17 |
credit_impulse → Banks银行 |
Negative负向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-17 |
sector_flow → Brokers券商 |
Negative负向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-16 |
sector_flow → Real estate房地产 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-14 |
sector_flow → Nonferrous metals有色金属 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-07 |
venue_offshore_gap → CSI 300 (onshore)沪深300（境内） |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-03 |
sector_flow → Defense国防军工 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-03 |
sector_flow → New-energy vehicle新能源车 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-01 |
pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-01 |
sector_flow → Semiconductors半导体 |
Negative负向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-01 |
sector_flow → Banks银行 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-01 |
sector_flow → Coal煤炭 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-07-01 |
southbound → Semiconductors半导体 |
Negative负向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-06-20 |
pboc_easing → Real estate房地产 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-06-20 |
pboc_easing → Brokers券商 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-06-20 |
pmi → Nonferrous metals有色金属 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
| 2026-06-20 |
pmi → New-energy vehicle新能源车 |
Positive正向 |
— |
Open未结 |
🌐 Venue Divergence跨市场背离 1/3 active活跃
Cross-venue pairs: A/H premium z, offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs CSI 300), southbound flow vs HSCEI. Each fires only when its z exceeds the engine threshold vs its own trailing history. FX caveat: offshore-ETF gap embeds USDCNY moves — not stripped. Context only.跨市场配对：A/H溢价z值、离岸ETF差价（KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ vs 沪深300）、南向资金 vs 恒生国企。仅当z值超过引擎阈值时触发。注：离岸ETF差价含汇率影响，未剥离。仅供参考。
Positive正向
Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)
100
Offshore (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) 20d equal-weight ret gap vs CSI300: +7.67% (z +2.39); FX-adj gap +8.7% (CNY -0.30%). FX note: gap embeds USDCNY moves — see FX-adj if available. Composition note: basket is tech/internet-tilted (KWEB=internet, CQQQ=tech-heavy) vs CSI 300's financials tilt — gap partly reflects sector rotation, not pure venue sentiment.离岸ETF(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) 20日等权收益差 vs 沪深300: +7.67%（z +2.39）；汇率调整后差价 +8.7%（人民币 -0.30%）。注：差值包含人民币汇率影响；篮子偏科技/互联网，与沪深300金融偏重有差异。
zz值: +2.39
· data as-of数据截至 2026-07-17
· track record历史: unproven未验证 (0)
If Offshore ETF gap (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ) leads, the onshore/HK price leg (CSI 300 (onshore)) should close the gap over ~3 months. Offshore China ETF basket (KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ — US-listed offshore listings; ASHR/GXC excluded as they hold A-shares directly) total-return equal-weight gap vs CSI 300. A strongly positive gap (offshore outperforming) while onshore lags = offshore sentiment leading. FX caveat: gap embeds USDCNY. Composition note: basket is tech/internet-tilted (KWEB=internet, CQQQ=tech-heavy) vs CSI 300's financials tilt — gap partly reflects sector rotation, not pure venue sentiment. Hypothesis: sustained offshore leadership tends to attract onshore catch-up over ~3 months.若离岸ETF差价(KWEB/MCHI/CQQQ)领先，境内/港股价格（沪深300（境内））应在约3个月内收敛。
A/H premium zA/H溢价z值Southbound flow vs HSCEI南向资金 vs 恒生国企
Context only — a divergence is a falsifiable hypothesis, not a trade. No validated edge; the ledger tracks whether these calls hold.仅作背景——背离是可证伪的假设，而非交易。无已验证优势；台账追踪这些判断是否成立。