Where to look for stocks — Prophet signals, sector rotation, factor tilts and real fund flows, filtered by the current macro regime.在哪里找股票 — 先知选股、板块轮动、因子倾斜与基金真实资金流，按当前宏观周期过滤。 ← Macro regime dashboard宏观周期看板 · 🧪 Pick Lab选股实验室
+7 more — full list on the baskets page →还有 7 个 — 完整列表见主题篮子页 →
⚠ Cycle timing shows where in the cycle a sector sits — use it for structure and defined exits, not as a return forecast.周期择时显示板块处于周期的哪个位置 — 用于结构与明确出场，而非收益预测。
| Stock个股 | Sector板块 | edge (α)优势 (α) | rank排名 | buy买入 | cycle周期 | trend趋势 | factor因子 | setup布局分 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Bunge Global | Consumer Staples必需消费 | +1.54 | #7/74 | Buy zone买入区 | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 | pullback回调 | +0.1 | +2.13 |
| GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. 📈 earnings beat盈利超预期 | Consumer Discretionary可选消费 | +1.48 | #8/192 | Buy zone买入区 | UPTREND上涨趋势 | intact | +0.6 | +1.39 |
| REX REX American Resources Corporation | Energy能源 | +1.45 | #2/68 | Buy zone买入区 | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 | intact | -0.4 | +1.36 |
| CALY Callaway Golf Company | Consumer Discretionary可选消费 | +1.25 | #13/192 | Early buy提前买点 | BUY ZONE买入区 | extended过热 | -0.8 | +1.43 |
| PLD Prologis Inc | Real Estate房地产 | +1.24 | #8/103 | Early buy提前买点 | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 | intact | -0.5 | +1.22 |
| HR Healthcare Realty Trust | Real Estate房地产 | +1.22 | #9/103 | Early buy提前买点 | BUY ZONE买入区 | intact | +0.1 | +2.10 |
| ODFL Old Dominion | Industrials工业 | +1.19 | #30/251 | Early buy提前买点 | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 | intact | -0.6 | +1.18 |
| WT WisdomTree Investments, Inc. | Financials金融 | +1.10 | #30/252 | Buy zone买入区 | NEARING A HIGH接近高点 | intact | -0.3 | +0.42 |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland Co | Consumer Staples必需消费 | +1.07 | #11/74 | Early buy提前买点 | NEARING A HIGH接近高点 | extended过热 | -0.5 | -0.30 |
| BTU Peabody Energy, Inc. | Energy能源 | +0.92 | #9/68 | Early buy提前买点 | NEARING A LOW接近低点 | pullback回调 | +0.2 | +1.69 |
| lens维度 | past month过去一月 | what it's saying它在说什么 |
|---|---|---|
| Small caps vs large小盘对大盘 ?Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 (IWM/SPY)罗素2000 对 标普500 (IWM/SPY)Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 (IWM/SPY)罗素2000 对 标普500 (IWM/SPY) | -0.06% | large-cap-led — narrowing participation大盘主导 — 参与度收窄 |
| Mid caps vs large中盘对大盘 ?S&P MidCap 400 vs S&P 500 (IJH/SPY)标普中盘400 对 标普500 (IJH/SPY)S&P MidCap 400 vs S&P 500 (IJH/SPY)标普中盘400 对 标普500 (IJH/SPY) | +0.15% | mid caps leading — broadening中盘领先 — 扩散 |
| Growth vs value成长对价值 ?Russell 1000 Growth vs Value (IWF/IWD). Style rotation: growth tends to lead in disinflation/slowdowns, value in reflation.罗素1000 成长 对 价值 (IWF/IWD)。风格轮动：成长在去通胀/放缓中领先，价值在再通胀中领先。Russell 1000 Growth vs Value (IWF/IWD). Style rotation: growth tends to lead in disinflation/slowdowns, value in reflation.罗素1000 成长 对 价值 (IWF/IWD)。风格轮动：成长在去通胀/放缓中领先，价值在再通胀中领先。 | -5.38% | value leadership价值领先 |
Participation looks参与度看起来 broad广泛 — 69% of the 1,500 above their 50-day的 1500 只高于 50 日均线, 72% above their 200-day高于 200 日均线; net new highs净新高 +85.
| size tier规模层级 | adv / dec涨／跌 | >50d>50日 | >200d>200日 | net NH净新高 ?52-week highs minus 52-week lows today. Positive = expansion (healthy); negative = more stocks making new lows than highs (deteriorating).今日创 52 周新高减去创 52 周新低的数量。正 = 扩张（健康）；负 = 创新低的股票多于创新高（恶化）。 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large cap大盘 S&P 500 | 146/356 | 65% | 68% | +29 |
| Mid cap中盘 S&P 400 | 123/274 | 68% | 71% | +19 |
| Small cap小盘 S&P 600 | 181/419 | 74% | 75% | +37 |
The advance is well-supported across the full 1,500上涨在整个 1500 只股票中获得良好支撑 · as of截至 2026-07-17
The internals read内部结构读数为 firm稳健 — the internals are confirming the tape — broad participation and positive momentum内部结构在确认盘面 — 参与广泛、动量为正.
As of截至 2026-07-17 · computed on the deep S&P 500 breadth series基于标普500深度广度序列计算 (1962–) · display-only market internals, never scored仅作展示的市场内部结构，不计入评分
| state | read it as | fwd 63d vs SPY* |
|---|---|---|
| BUY | fresh up-turn on daily + 3-day, above trend | +0.9% (56% up) |
| SETUP | approaching an up-cross — get ready | +0.3..0.7% |
| EXTENDED | overbought, late — hold/trim, don't chase | ~flat |
| TOPPING | overbought + rolling over — distribution | −0.1% |
| SELL | overbought + confirmed 3-day down-cross | −1.2% (40% up) |
| BELOW TREND | under the 200-day — knife; wait for a reclaim | −0.1% |
| OVERSOLD BOUNCE | range-bound defensive (XLU/XLP/XLV/XLRE), oversold dip below trend, Fed-put on — tactical bounce, lags SPY | +4.0% abs / +0.3% vs SPY |
| 状态 | 解读 | 未来63日对SPY* |
|---|---|---|
| 买入 | 日线+3日线同时转上，且在趋势之上 | +0.9%（56%上涨） |
| 预备 | 接近上穿——准备 | +0.3..0.7% |
| 过热 | 超买、已晚——持有/减仓，勿追 | ≈持平 |
| 见顶 | 超买+回落——派发 | −0.1% |
| 卖出 | 超买+3日线确认下穿 | −1.2%（40%上涨） |
| 趋势下方 | 200日线下方——接飞刀；等待收复 | −0.1% |
| 超卖反弹 | 区间震荡的防御板块（XLU/XLP/XLV/XLRE），趋势下方超卖回调、美联储托底在位——战术反弹，跑输SPY | +4.0% 绝对 / +0.3% 对SPY |
3 on the buy side在买入侧 · 5 extended / topping / below trend过热／见顶／趋势下方. Sorted most-actionable first — a timing map, not a return forecast.按可操作性排序——择时地图，非收益预测。 ?Cross-sectionally the buy side has beaten the avoid side by ~0.8%/quarter (1998-2026). Use it to time rotation and to NOT chase extended leaders — never as a return forecast. Hit-rates ~50-56%; the edge is in magnitude and in AVOIDANCE (stops you chasing "confirmed leadership" that institutions distribute into).横截面上买入侧每季度约跑赢回避侧 0.8%（1998–2026）。用于把握轮动、避免追逐过热领先股——切勿当作收益预测。胜率约 50–56%；优势在于幅度与「回避」（避免追逐机构派发的「已确认领先」），而非高胜率。
| sector板块 | verdict判断 ?BUY/SETUP = an entry above the 200-day; EXTENDED/TOPPING/SELL = late or distributing; BELOW TREND = a knife. Dots = conviction (how many of daily / 3-day MACD / 3-day StochRSI agree).买入/预备＝200日线上方的入场；过热/见顶/卖出＝偏晚或派发中；趋势下方＝接飞刀。圆点＝信心（日线／3日 MACD／3日 StochRSI 中有几个一致）。 | 3-day signal3 日信号 ?What actually fired on the 3-day chart (the daily is the early trigger): a MACD/StochRSI crossover, a curl approaching a cross (with an ETA in trading days), or a roll-over.3 日图上实际触发了什么（日线为早期触发）：MACD/StochRSI 交叉、接近交叉的拐头（含预计交易日数）、或回落。 | trend趋势 ?Price vs its 200-day (long-term) and 50-day (medium-term) average — the gate that separates a buyable pullback from a falling knife.价格相对 200 日（长期）与 50 日（中期）均线——把可买回调与接飞刀分开的闸门。 | RSI / Stoch (3D)RSI / Stoch（3 日） ?The 3-day RSI(14) and StochRSI. Above 70 / 80 = extended (late). StochRSI crossing up over 20 from oversold is the bottoming tell; dropping out of 80 is the topping tell.3 日 RSI(14) 与 StochRSI。高于 70／80＝过热（偏晚）。StochRSI 从超卖上穿 20 是见底信号；跌出 80 是见顶信号。 | 3mo vs mkt3 月对比市场 ?Relative strength vs the S&P 500 over the past ~60 trading days.过去约 60 个交易日相对标普 500 的强弱。 | seasonality季节性 ?This sector's average return in the current calendar month. Hover for the full 12-month picture. Weak evidence — context only, never a signal on its own.该板块在当前日历月的平均回报。悬停查看完整 12 个月全貌。弱证据——仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号。 | base rate基础概率 ?The MEASURED forward 63-day excess vs SPY for this state across the 11 sector ETFs 1998-2026 — the signal's honest track record, not a promise.该状态实测的未来 63 日对 SPY 超额，跨 11 个板块 ETF、1998–2026——信号的真实历史记录，并非承诺。 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP Consumer Staples必需消费 |
BUY买入
●●●
Fresh up-turn confirmed on the daily AND 3-day — entry open.日线与3日线同时确认转上——入场窗口打开。
|
MACD ↑MACD 上穿 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 56 · Stoch 54 | -1.3% |
+1.2% (64%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+1.0% vs SPY · 56% up · n=199对SPY +1.0% · 56% 上涨 · n=199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLRE Real Estate房地产 |
BUY买入
●●●
Fresh up-turn confirmed on the daily AND 3-day — entry open.日线与3日线同时确认转上——入场窗口打开。
|
MACD ↑MACD 上穿 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 60 · Stoch 78 | -2.4% |
+3.3% (91%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+1.0% vs SPY · 56% up · n=199对SPY +1.0% · 56% 上涨 · n=199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLB Materials原材料 |
SETUP预备
●
Approaching an up-cross above trend — get ready, not yet triggered.在趋势之上接近上穿——准备，尚未触发。
|
no fresh cross无新交叉 | ✓200d ✗50d | RSI 49 · Stoch 28 | -6.9% |
+1.4% (50%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+0.2% vs SPY · 50% up · n=488对SPY +0.2% · 50% 上涨 · n=488 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLK Technology科技 |
NEUTRAL中性
·
In trend, nothing fresh — no edge either way.处于趋势中，无新信号——两边都无优势。
|
no fresh cross无新交叉 | ✓200d ✗50d | RSI 52 · Stoch 2 | +8.7% |
+1.3% (64%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+0.1% vs SPY · 51% up · n=2548对SPY +0.1% · 51% 上涨 · n=2548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLI Industrials工业 |
NEUTRAL中性
·
In trend, nothing fresh — no edge either way.处于趋势中，无新信号——两边都无优势。
|
StochRSI ↓80, MACD rolling down, ~2d to crossStochRSI 跌破80, MACD 下弯, 约2天后交叉 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 57 · Stoch 49 | -1.2% |
+1.5% (71%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+0.1% vs SPY · 51% up · n=2548对SPY +0.1% · 51% 上涨 · n=2548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLU Utilities公用事业 |
NEUTRAL中性
·
In trend, nothing fresh — no edge either way.处于趋势中，无新信号——两边都无优势。
|
no fresh cross无新交叉 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 51 · Stoch 64 | -6.5% |
+1.0% (64%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
+0.1% vs SPY · 51% up · n=2548对SPY +0.1% · 51% 上涨 · n=2548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLE Energy能源 |
EXTENDED过热
●
Overbought and still rising — late; hold/trim, don't chase.超买且仍在上行——已晚；持有/减仓，勿追。
|
StochRSI ↑20, MACD curling up, ~2d to crossStochRSI 上穿20, MACD 上弯, 约2天后交叉 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 56 · Stoch 57 | +0.2% |
+0.4% (61%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
-0.0% vs SPY · 50% up · n=2196对SPY -0.0% · 50% 上涨 · n=2196 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLV Health Care医疗保健 |
TOPPING见顶
●
Overbought and rolling over — distribution risk; reduce.超买且开始回落——派发风险；减仓。
|
MACD rolling downMACD 下弯 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 63 · Stoch 81 | +3.4% |
+1.1% (64%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
-0.2% vs SPY · 49% up · n=2338对SPY -0.2% · 49% 上涨 · n=2338 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLF Financials金融 |
TOPPING见顶
●
Overbought and rolling over — distribution risk; reduce.超买且开始回落——派发风险；减仓。
|
daily momentum rolling down日线动量回落 | ✓200d ✓50d | RSI 70 · Stoch 87 | +2.5% |
+2.0% (68%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
-0.2% vs SPY · 49% up · n=2338对SPY -0.2% · 49% 上涨 · n=2338 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLY Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
BELOW TREND趋势下方
●
Below the 200-day — bottoming buys here are knives; wait for a reclaim.处于200日线下方——此处抄底如接飞刀；等待收复。
|
MACD ↓MACD 下穿 | ✗200d ✗50d | RSI 48 · Stoch 31 | -8.4% |
+1.7% (68%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
-0.1% vs SPY · 49% up · n=3488对SPY -0.1% · 49% 上涨 · n=3488 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| XLC Communications通讯 |
BELOW TREND趋势下方
●
Below the 200-day — bottoming buys here are knives; wait for a reclaim.处于200日线下方——此处抄底如接飞刀；等待收复。
|
MACD curling up, ~2d to crossMACD 上弯, 约2天后交叉 | ✗200d ✗50d | RSI 45 · Stoch 66 | -11.2% |
+2.5% (78%)
Seasonality — average return by month季节性 — 各月平均回报
Each month’s average return across this instrument’s full history, and how often it closed up. Weak evidence — background colour only, never a signal on its own (and left out of the heat score).该标的全部历史中每个月的平均回报及收涨频率。属于弱证据 — 仅作背景参考，绝不单独作为信号（且已排除在热度分数之外）。
|
-0.1% vs SPY · 49% up · n=3488对SPY -0.1% · 49% 上涨 · n=3488 |
Click any sector for its full drill-down: cycle position, multi-timeframe momentum, the confluence signal, and each top-10 holding analyzed individually.点击任意板块查看完整下钻：周期位置、多时间尺度动量、共振信号，以及逐一分析的每个前十大持仓。
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| sector板块 | stock个股 | weight change权重变化 | beyond price剔除价格后 | est. flow估算资金流 | technical技术面 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV · Health Care医疗保健 | ABBV Abbvie Inc | +0.16pp | -0.04pp | −$17M | BUY ZONE买入区 |
| XLRE · Real Estate房地产 | WELL Welltower Inc | +0.25pp | +0.03pp | +$3M | BUY ZONE买入区 ✅ |
| XLE · Energy能源 | EOG Eog Resources Inc | -0.04pp | -0.03pp | −$11M | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| XLV · Health Care医疗保健 | ABT Abbott Laboratories | +0.13pp | -0.02pp | −$8M | BUY ZONE买入区 |
| XLRE · Real Estate房地产 | PLD Prologis Inc | +0.39pp | +0.02pp | +$2M | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| XLV · Health Care医疗保健 | LLY Eli Lilly + Co | -0.34pp | +0.02pp | +$8M | BOTTOMING筑底中 ✅ |
| XLRE · Real Estate房地产 | IRM Iron Mountain Inc | -0.06pp | +0.02pp | +$2M | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| XLRE · Real Estate房地产 | SPG Simon Property Group Inc | +0.12pp | +0.02pp | +$2M | BOTTOMING筑底中 ✅ |
| XLY · Consumer Discretionary可选消费 | TSLA Tesla Inc | -0.81pp | -0.01pp | −$3M | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| XLB · Materials原材料 | FCX Freeport Mcmoran Inc | -0.25pp | -0.01pp | −$1M | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| XLRE · Real Estate房地产 | EQIX Equinix Inc | -0.42pp | +0.01pp | +$1M | DOWNTREND下跌趋势 |
| XLV · Health Care医疗保健 | JNJ Johnson + Johnson | -0.34pp | +0.01pp | +$5M | BOTTOMING筑底中 ✅ |
“Active Δwt” strips out price: it is the percentage points of weight a name gained beyond what its own price move explains. On passive index ETFs this captures index reconstitution / float-weight flow, not a manager’s discretion. The estimated $ flow applies the active Δwt to the fund’s AUM and is approximate.“主动权重Δ”已剔除价格因素：它是个股权重增长中超出其自身价格涨幅所能解释的百分点。在被动指数 ETF 上，这反映的是指数再平衡／流通权重调整带来的资金流，而非经理人的主动决策。估算的美元资金流是将“主动权重Δ”乘以基金 AUM 得出的近似值。
| fund基金 | stock个股 | sector板块 | weight权重 | conviction Δwt信念权重Δ | technical技术面 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARS | SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp | SpaceSpace | 22.73% | +22.73pp | — |
| MEME | HIMS Hims & Hers Health Inc | Health Care医疗保健 | 6.21% | +6.21pp | — |
| BUG | CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings Inc - A | Information Technology信息技术 | 7.21% | +5.39pp | NEARING A HIGH接近高点 |
| MEME | COHR Coherent Corp | Information Technology信息技术 | 5.37% | +5.37pp | — |
| MEME | WULF Terawulf Inc | Meme / RetailMeme / Retail | 5.35% | +5.35pp | — |
| MEME | WDC Western Digital Corp | Information Technology信息技术 | 4.93% | +4.93pp | UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 |
| MEME | STX Seagate Technology Holdings Plc | Information Technology信息技术 | 4.87% | +4.87pp | BOTTOMING筑底中 ✅ |
| BETZ | LNW AU Light & Wonder Inc | Sports BettingSports Betting | 4.65% | +4.65pp | — |
| MEME | CBRS Cerebras Systems Inc | Meme / RetailMeme / Retail | 4.53% | +4.53pp | — |
| REMX | 7610 TT Lianyou Metals Co Ltd | Rare EarthRare Earth | 6.42% | +4.50pp | — |
| REMX | ALB Albemarle Corp | Materials原材料 | 7.42% | +4.50pp | — |
| ARKK | SPCX Space Exploration Techn-Cl A | Active / InnovationActive / Innovation | 4.39% | +4.39pp | — |
Data window ending数据窗口截至 2026-07-17
Looking for where sector-ETF money is rotating (1D / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M creation-redemption flow)? It now lives on想看板块 ETF 资金的轮动去向（1D / 3D / 1W / 2W / 1M 申购赎回资金流）？已移至 Sector Central行业中枢 →