Two separate questions, deliberately kept apart. CONVICTION (the rank) is how good the name looks: mostly how far it is outrunning its own sector, confirmed by value, quality, profitability, low volatility and insider buying. BUY (its own column) is whether you can act today — a name only reads 'Buy zone' once the entry signal has actually fired, or is about to. A high-conviction leader that is rolling over is NOT a buy; it shows a muted dash. The 'trend' chip tells you how much risk to take, never whether to buy, and it never touches the rank — folding timing into the rank measurably hurt when we tested it. The blend beat momentum alone at every horizon we measured, but the edge is modest and crowded: this is a research lens with an entry check attached, not a guaranteed buy list.两件事，我们有意分开说。信念（排名）说的是这只股票本身好不好：主要看它跑赢自己所在行业多少，再用价值、质量、盈利能力、低波动和内部人买入来确认。买入（单独一列）说的是今天能不能动手——只有入场信号真的触发了、或者马上要触发，才会显示“买入区”。一只信念很高但已经在回落的领涨股不是买点，那里会显示一个灰色破折号。“趋势”标签只告诉你该冒多大风险，不代表买卖，也完全不参与排名——我们测过，把择时折进排名反而更差。这套组合在我们测过的每个时间跨度上都好于只看动量，但优势有限、也很拥挤：它是一个带入场检查的研究视角，不是保证赚钱的买入清单。
As of截至 2026-10-23 · 1594 names只 · score评分 0.6·α + 0.4·conviction信念 · betas贝塔 252d · formation形成窗口 252-21d · entry signals from session入场信号取自交易日 2026-10-23 · 4 sessions behind落后 4 个交易日 · valid through 2026-10-26有效至 2026-10-26
+ 228 more name(s) with a fresh confluence buy below conviction 0.3 — see the “buy” column in the table.另有 228 个已触发共振买入但信念低于 0.3 的标的 — 见下表“买入”列。
| # | stock个股 | Top-Pick score精选评分?The conviction rank = 0.6·alpha + 0.4·confirmation. alpha is the sector-neutral residual-momentum z; confirmation is the sector-neutral z-mean of value / quality / profitability / low-vol / insider. Validated point-in-time to beat alpha alone on IC at every horizon (reports/top-picks-phase0.md). A modest, decayed edge — context, not a guaranteed buy.信念排名 = 0.6·阿尔法 + 0.4·确认。阿尔法为板块中性残差动量 z；确认为价值/质量/盈利/低波/内部人的板块中性 z 均值。经点对点验证在每个跨度上优于单独阿尔法（reports/top-picks-phase0.md）。温和、已衰减的边际信号——背景而非保证买入。 | buy买入?The entry signal you can actually act on. "Buy zone" = it fired in the last few days and momentum is still building; "About to cross" = it should fire within a day or two. A muted dash means nothing has fired — the name is a hold or is rolling over today, whatever its conviction. This is the only column that says "buy".真正能照着动手的入场信号。“买入区”＝最近几天刚触发，动量还在往上走；“即将交叉”＝预计一两天内触发。灰色破折号表示什么都没触发——不管信念多高，这只股票今天就是持有或者在回落。这是唯一说“买入”的一列。 | stretch拉伸?How far the name has run above its own 200-day average: In-trend → Steady → Stretched → ⚠Parabolic. The parabolic tail is the bubble-pullback flag — measured, that group went on to a −94% drawdown. It tells you how much risk to take: never part of the rank, and never a reason to short. We tested folding it into the score and it did not reduce drawdown, so it stays a per-name caution.这只股票比自己的 200 日均线高出多少：趋势内→平稳→拉伸→⚠抛物线。抛物线那一段是泡沫回撤的警示——实测下来，这一组后来出现了 −94% 的回撤。它只告诉你该冒多大风险：不计入排名，也不构成做空理由。我们试过把它折进评分，并没有减少回撤，所以它只作为单只股票的提醒。 | trend趋势?Trend-position CONTEXT (NOT a buy call, NOT in the rank): Pullback = a leader easing back toward its trend; In trend = riding it; Extended = just spiked (wait). This is where in its OWN move a leader sits — the actual buy trigger is the separate "buy" column (the confluence gate). A name can read "Pullback" here yet have no fresh cross.趋势位置情境（非买入信号、不计入排名）：回调=领先股回踩趋势；趋势内=延续；过热=刚飙升（等待）。这是领先股处于自身走势的哪个位置——真正的买入触发在单独的“买入”列（共振门控）。某股此处可显示“回调”却无新交叉。 | conviction drivers信念驱动?Which confirming legs move the score (sector-neutral z ≥ 0.6 or ≤ -0.6): Profit = gross profitability (the strongest confirmer), plus value / quality / low-vol. 👤N = N insiders bought. "Rich/Cheap vs own" = current earnings yield vs the name's own ~3y history (display-only).推动评分的确认因子（板块中性 z ≥ 0.6 或 ≤ -0.6）：Profit = 毛利率（最强确认），以及价值/质量/低波。👤N = N 名内部人买入。“相对自身偏高/偏低” = 当前市盈收益率相对该股近3年历史（仅展示）。 | α阿尔法 | price价格 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSGS Madison Square Gar Communication Services通信服务 |
+1.86 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.7σ | Pullback回调 | Quality质量 +0.7LowVol低波 +1.0Cheap vs own相对自身偏低👁 Attn关注 +2.3σ | +2.53 #1/52 | $388.63 |
| 2 | SNDK Sandisk Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.72 |
— | Steady平稳 -2.0σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -1.0Quality质量 +2.5LowVol低波 -2.46 sellers6 名卖出 -$130.3M | +3.00 #1/220 | $1238.03 |
| 3 | ROST Ross Stores Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.59 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -2.0σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -1.2Quality质量 +1.1LowVol低波 +1.32 sellers2 名卖出 -$12.8MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.43 #3/210 | $229.30 |
| 4 | CAKE The Cheesecake Fac Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.57 |
— | Steady平稳 +0.7σ | In trend趋势内 | Value价值 -0.98 sellers8 名卖出 -$28.8MRich vs own相对自身偏高👁 Attn关注 +6.0σ | +2.65 #1/210 | $108.37 |
| 5 | MU Micron Technology Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.48 |
— | Steady平稳 -1.9σ | Pullback回调 | Profit盈利 -0.9LowVol低波 -1.99 sellers9 名卖出 -$274.6MCheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +2.82 #2/220 | $877.55 |
| 6 | TPH TPH —— |
+1.46α only仅阿尔法 |
— | — | Neutral中性 | +2.43 #2/210 | — | |
| 7 | MATX Matson, Inc. Industrials工业 |
+1.44 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.5σ | In trend趋势内 | Quality质量 +0.612 sellers12 名卖出 -$15.8MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.23 #3/263 | $228.64 |
| 8 | ATI ATI Inc. Industrials工业 |
+1.42 |
— | Steady平稳 -3.5σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -0.83 sellers3 名卖出 -$56.1MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.57 #1/263 | $156.88 |
| 9 | BJRI BJ's Restaurants, Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.41 |
— | Steady平稳 -0.3σ | Pullback回调 | 6 sellers6 名卖出 -$7.9MCheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +2.41 #4/210 | $56.51 |
| 10 | TGT Target Corporation Consumer Staples必需消费 |
+1.41 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.2σ | Pullback回调 | 5 sellers5 名卖出 -$19.7MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.30 #1/72 | $152.76 |
| 11 | RNG RingCentral, Inc. Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.39 |
— | Stretched拉伸 +1.5σ | In trend趋势内 | Quality质量 +2.3Profit盈利 +3.0LowVol低波 -1.1Cheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +1.38 #24/220 | $83.39 |
| 12 | TRST TrustCo Bank Corp Financials金融 |
+1.37 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.7σ | Pullback回调 | Rich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.23 #2/262 | $55.73 |
| 13 | UFCS United Fire Group, Financials金融 |
+1.35 |
— | In-trend趋势内 +0.2σ | In trend趋势内 | Cheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +2.15 #3/262 | $57.38 |
| 14 | STT State Street Corpo Financials金融 |
+1.29 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.6σ | Pullback回调 | 6 sellers6 名卖出 -$12.4MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.07 #5/262 | $167.83 |
| 15 | WSFS WSFS Financial Cor Financials金融 |
+1.28 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.5σ | In trend趋势内 | LowVol低波 +0.63 sellers3 名卖出 -$5.4MRichest in 3y近3年最贵 | +2.08 #4/262 | $79.02 |
| 16 | MOG-A Moog Inc. Industrials工业 |
+1.27 |
— | Steady平稳 -2.1σ | Pullback回调 | +2.18 #4/263 | $341.34 | |
| 17 | ECPG Encore Capital Gro Financials金融 |
+1.25 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.4σ | In trend趋势内 | Quality质量 -1.72 sellers2 名卖出 -$1.1MCheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +2.40 #1/262 | $97.73 |
| 18 | IRDM Iridium Communicat Communication Services通信服务 |
+1.24 |
— | Steady平稳 -0.4σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -1.0Quality质量 +0.6LowVol低波 -1.46 sellers6 名卖出 -$19.8M | +2.39 #2/52 | $44.40 |
| 19 | DRH DiamondRock Hospit Real Estate房地产 |
+1.23 |
— | Steady平稳 +0.7σ | Extended过热 | 2 sellers2 名卖出 -$0.5MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.04 #1/100 | $13.76 |
| 20 | JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care医疗保健 |
+1.23 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.3σ | Pullback回调 | LowVol低波 +1.86 sellers6 名卖出 -$70.2MCheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +1.86 #3/175 | $263.81 |
| 21 | VSTS Vestis Industrials工业 |
+1.22 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.1σ | In trend趋势内 | Quality质量 -0.8LowVol低波 -1.3Rich vs own相对自身偏高 | +2.31 #2/263 | $14.75 |
| 22 | FTNT Fortinet Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.21 |
— | Steady平稳 +0.6σ | In trend趋势内 | Value价值 -0.6Quality质量 +1.7Profit盈利 +1.3LowVol低波 +1.14 sellers4 名卖出 -$79.9MRichest in 3y近3年最贵 | +1.54 #16/220 | $179.99 |
| 23 | VLO Valero Energy Energy能源 |
+1.21 |
— | Stretched拉伸 +1.1σ | In trend趋势内 | Richest in 3y近3年最贵 | +2.08 #1/78 | $419.28 |
| 24 | GM General Motors Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.20 |
— | Steady平稳 -1.7σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 +2.1LowVol低波 +0.76 sellers6 名卖出 -$110.0MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.43 #12/210 | $75.92 |
| 25 | CROX Crocs Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.19 |
— | Steady平稳 -0.0σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -0.8Quality质量 +1.1Profit盈利 +1.0Richest in 3y近3年最贵 | +1.82 #6/210 | $119.23 |
| 26 | PTGX Protagonist Therap Health Care医疗保健 |
+1.18 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.4σ | In trend趋势内 | Quality质量 +3.04 sellers4 名卖出 -$49.7M | +1.50 #12/175 | $138.43 |
| 27 | SPHR Sphere Entertainme Communication Services通信服务 |
+1.17 |
— | Steady平稳 -2.5σ | Pullback回调 | LowVol低波 -0.8👁 Attn关注 +2.2σ | +2.28 #3/52 | $108.94 |
| 28 | AMD Advanced Micro Dev Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.17 |
— | Steady平稳 -0.7σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -0.6LowVol低波 -0.97 sellers7 名卖出 -$273.4M | +2.14 #5/220 | $516.79 |
| 29 | STBA S&T Bancorp, Inc. Financials金融 |
+1.16 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.2σ | In trend趋势内 | LowVol低波 +0.7Richest in 3y近3年最贵 | +1.83 #9/262 | $50.52 |
| 30 | VSXY Victoria's Secret Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.16 |
Buy zone买入区 fired 1 bar ago1 根K线前触发 | In-trend趋势内 -0.7σ | In trend趋势内 | Value价值 -0.7LowVol低波 -2.6Richest in 3y近3年最贵👁 Attn关注 +6.0σ | +2.30 #5/210 | $90.82 |
| 31 | CFFN Capitol Federal Sa Financials金融 |
+1.14 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.6σ | Pullback回调 | Cheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +1.97 #8/262 | $8.40 |
| 32 | UBSI United Bankshares Financials金融 |
+1.14 |
early✓提前✓ fired 2 bars ago2 根K线前触发 | In-trend趋势内 -0.2σ | In trend趋势内 | LowVol低波 +0.7Rich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.78 #11/262 | $48.67 |
| 33 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. Health Care医疗保健 |
+1.13 |
— | Stretched拉伸 +1.4σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -0.6Profit盈利 +0.75 sellers5 名卖出 -$592.3MCheap vs own相对自身偏低 | +2.00 #1/175 | $269.42 |
| 34 | NDSN Nordson Corporatio Industrials工业 |
+1.13 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.0σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 -0.7LowVol低波 +1.46 sellers6 名卖出 -$1.9MRichest in 3y近3年最贵 | +1.79 #7/263 | $318.84 |
| 35 | ANDE The Andersons, Inc Consumer Staples必需消费 |
+1.12 |
— | Steady平稳 -1.8σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 +3.0Profit盈利 -1.02 sellers2 名卖出 -$5.6MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.63 #6/72 | $64.93 |
| 36 | BFH Bread Financial Ho Financials金融 |
+1.12 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -1.4σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 +1.6Quality质量 +0.8LowVol低波 -0.83 sellers3 名卖出 -$2.5M | +1.59 #15/262 | $99.89 |
| 37 | AVT Avnet Information Technology信息技术 |
+1.12 |
— | Steady平稳 -0.7σ | Pullback回调 | Value价值 +2.9Quality质量 -1.1LowVol低波 +1.43 sellers3 名卖出 -$11.0MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.51 #19/220 | $88.08 |
| 38 | M Macy's Consumer Discretionary可选消费 |
+1.12 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.5σ | In trend趋势内 | Value价值 +2.56 sellers6 名卖出 -$3.0M | +1.40 #15/210 | $24.10 |
| 39 | LNTH Lantheus Holdings Health Care医疗保健 |
+1.11 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.2σ | Pullback回调 | Profit盈利 +0.7LowVol低波 +0.8Rich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.58 #10/175 | $99.80 |
| 40 | MRK Merck & Co. Health Care医疗保健 |
+1.11 |
— | In-trend趋势内 -0.7σ | Pullback回调 | Quality质量 -0.8LowVol低波 +1.15 sellers5 名卖出 -$30.0MRich vs own相对自身偏高 | +1.82 #5/175 | $145.27 |
Source: engine/top_picks.py — an alpha-led conviction blend (engine/residual_alpha.py + engine/equity_factors.py + Form-4 insider) over the S&P 1500, validated point-in-time in reports/top-picks-phase0.md. The stretch / exhaustion axis, valuation-vs-own-history chip and cohort banner (engine/extension.py) are DISPLAY-ONLY risk reads — never in the rank: a point-in-time downside test (reports/top-picks-freshness-phase0.md) found no extension screen reduces drawdown, but the parabolic (>2σ own-history) tail is a genuine bubble-pullback hazard, so it is flagged per-name. Ranks recompute daily with prices/filings. A modest, decayed, crowded edge — a research lens with risk context, not a buy list.来源：engine/top_picks.py — 覆盖标普 1500 的以阿尔法为主的信念混合（engine/residual_alpha.py + engine/equity_factors.py + Form-4 内部人），已在 reports/top-picks-phase0.md 做点对点验证。拉伸/过热维度、相对自身估值标签与群体横幅（engine/extension.py）均为仅展示的风险读数，不计入排名：点对点下行测试（reports/top-picks-freshness-phase0.md）发现任何拉伸筛选都无法降低回撤，但抛物（相对自身历史>2σ）尾部确为真实的泡沫回撤风险，故逐股标注。排名随价格/披露每日重算。温和、已衰减、拥挤的边际信号 — 带风险背景的研究视角，而非买入清单。 Generated生成于 2026-10-30 00:51 UTC