🇨🇳 National Team Radar国家队雷达

China Policy & State-Hand Watch中国政策与国家队监测

Is Beijing defending the market right now?北京此刻是否在护盘？

as of截至 2026-09-15
Off tape — hand withdrawn离场 — 政策之手已收 · state-hand watch国家队监测
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Off tape — hand withdrawn离场 — 政策之手已收
State-Hand pressure国家队干预压力 · 1/8 tells firing迹象点亮

State-hand inputs国家队输入 · 2026-09-15 · 0d ago日前

The state hand is off the tape. Policy is neutral-to-tightening; no intervention signals.政策之手已离场。政策中性偏紧；没有干预信号。

Detection receipts检测依据 — 1/8 firing点亮
ETF creation surgeETF份额激增quiet平静
CSI 300 units +1%, STAR 50 +3% (2d)沪深300份额+1%，科创50 +3%（2日）
Index-heavyweight lift权重股护指数quiet平静
Index heavyweights -2.1% vs small-caps -2.9% (5d)权重股-2.1% vs 中小盘-2.9%（5日）
Policy rescue impulse政策托市quiet平静
Policy impulse: neutral政策脉冲：中性
State-media drumbeat官媒稳市喊话firing点亮
CCTV state-media tone elevated vs history (pro-growth emphasis)央视基调较历史偏暖（稳增长着墨）
PBoC support facility央行支持工具null无
No reading — data not yet available.暂无读数——数据尚未具备。
PBoC easing into stress央行逆势宽松quiet平静
FR007 z +0.08 — posture tell not firingFR007 z +0.08 — 姿态信号未触发
SOE buyback cascade国企回购潮quiet平静
SOE buyback proposals -20% w/w国企回购预案环比-20%
Margin balance turning两融企稳回升quiet平静
Margin balance fell ¥4.9bn last session两融余额上一交易日减少49亿
Data limits数据限制
etf_creation: etf_shares history ~5wk (thin, disclosed); fires on the broad national-team signature (>=2 team ETFs each >=6%, or one >=15%) — not a single noisy fund · facility_watch: no tier-1 state-media rows in trailing 30d (tier-1 tape thin/stale)
Context only — a read on whether the state is defending the market, not a buy signal. State intervention is loud by design; this fuses its public footprint (ETF creation, policy impulse, index-heavyweight lift) into one intensity gauge. Nulls are shown, not hidden.仅供参考——用以判断国家队是否在护盘，并非买入信号。国家干预本就高调；本表将其公开足迹（ETF份额创设、政策脉冲、权重股护指数）汇成一个强度读数。空值如实显示，不予隐藏。

How we read the hand我们如何读国家队之手

Leading先行before the buying买入之前
State-media drumbeat官媒稳市喊话 +1.0z+1.0z
CCTV state-media tone elevated vs history (pro-growth emphasis)央视基调较历史偏暖（稳增长着墨）
PBoC support facility央行支持工具
No reading yet暂无读数
PBoC easing into stress央行逆势宽松 +0.08z+0.08z
FR007 z +0.08 — posture tell not firingFR007 z +0.08 — 姿态信号未触发
Coincident同步during — the fingerprint买入期间——指纹
ETF creation surgeETF份额激增 +1% / +3%+1% / +3%
CSI 300 units +1%, STAR 50 +3% (2d)沪深300份额+1%，科创50 +3%（2日）
Index-heavyweight lift权重股护指数 +0.8pp+0.8pp
Index heavyweights -2.1% vs small-caps -2.9% (5d)权重股-2.1% vs 中小盘-2.9%（5日）
Policy rescue impulse政策托市 neutral中性
Policy impulse: neutral政策脉冲：中性
Confirming确认after — the relay之后——接力
SOE buyback cascade国企回购潮 -20%-20%
SOE buyback proposals -20% w/w国企回购预案环比-20%
Margin balance turning两融企稳回升 ¥-4.9bn-49亿
Margin balance fell ¥4.9bn last session两融余额上一交易日减少49亿
The policy thesis政策核心论点Beijing is running a calibrated, supply-and-demand 'stabilize-not-stimulate' policy mix: incremental PBoC easing (RRR + targeted rate cuts, ample liquidity) paired with fiscal support skewed to consumption trade-in (以旧换新), property stabilization and strategic industrial self-reliance (信创 / domestic semis, AI, EV, defense). The revealed priority is high-quality, self-sufficient growth and financial-risk control — not a 2009-style credit flood.北京在执行有节制的供需双侧『稳而非刺激』政策组合：央行渐进宽松（降准＋定向降息、流动性充裕）配合偏向消费以旧换新、地产稳定与战略产业自主（信创／国产半导体、AI、新能源车、军工）的财政支持。真实优先事项是高质量、自主可控的增长与金融风险防控，而非2009式信贷洪流。
How to read it如何解读Policy is easing at the margin but deliberately restrained — read incremental moves (RRR cuts, LPR trims, special-bond issuance) as risk-management of a deflationary, property-drag backdrop, not a cyclical re-acceleration bet.政策边际宽松但刻意克制——应将渐进举措（降准、LPR下调、专项债发行）解读为对通缩与地产拖累背景的风险管理，而非押注周期性再加速。
GDP growth targetGDP增长目标 ~5.0%约5.0% CPI targetCPI目标 ~2%约2% Fiscal deficit ratio财政赤字率 ~4% of GDP约GDP的4% Local special-purpose bond quota地方专项债额度 ¥4.4T4.4万亿元 Ultra-long special treasury bonds超长期特别国债 ¥1.3T1.3万亿元

Intel substrate情报底稿 · 2026-06-20 · 87d ago日前 · may be stale可能过时

PBoC stance & rate corridor央行立场与利率走廊 as of截至 2026-08-20
On hold / neutral按兵不动 / 中性 On hold / neutral bias — 1Y LPR +0bp over 12 months, RRR -1.50pp over 18 months.按兵不动 / 中性倾向 — 1年期LPR过去12个月+0基点，准备金率过去18个月-1.50个百分点。
1Y LPR1年期LPR
3.00%
5Y LPR5年期LPR
3.50%
RRR (big banks)存准率(大行)
9.00%
18-month window18个月窗口
FR007 (repo)FR007回购
1.43%
vs 120d avg +0.00pp较120日均值+0.00个百分点
SHIBOR O/N隔夜SHIBOR
2.25%
SHIBOR 3M3个月SHIBOR
3.10%
China macro backdrop中国宏观背景 as of截至 2026-09-15

Growth is soft and prices are barely rising — watch, don't chase增长偏弱、物价几乎不涨——观望，不要追

FX reserves外汇储备
$3.44T
+19.5 bn MoM十亿美元环比 · 2026-08-01
Gold reserves黄金储备
3501t
USD / CNY美元兑人民币
6.767
-0.023 20d20日 · 2026-09-15
Mfg PMI制造业PMI
49.8
below 50 — contracting低于50——收缩 · 2026-08-01
Non-mfg PMI非制造业PMI
49.0
below 50 — contracting低于50——收缩 · 2026-08-01
CPI YoYCPI同比
0.8%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
PPI YoYPPI同比
3.8%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
M2 YoYM2同比
7.5%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
M1 YoYM1同比
4.1%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
GDP YoYGDP同比
4.7%
rising上行 · 2026-06-01
Retail YoY社零同比
0.4%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
Exports YoY出口同比
25.0%
rising上行 · 2026-08-01
TSF (mo)社融(当月)
¥16577.0bn
up from last month高于上月 · 2026-08-01

China desk中国桌面 → 13 prints on this card本卡 13 项读数

Sector-policy tracker行业政策追踪 as of截至 2026-06-20
Sector行业Stance立场Policy read政策解读
Domestic semis / IT localization (信创)国产半导体／信创
Semiconductors半导体 		Supportive支持 National self-reliance mandate + big-fund capital; foreign-chip substitution in gov/SOE by 2027.国家自主可控指令＋大基金资本；2027年前政府/国企国产替代。
AI computeAI算力
AI Compute & OpticsAI算力与光模块 		Supportive支持 'East-data-West-compute' national grid; domestic GPU (Ascend/Cambricon) push.『东数西算』国家算力网；国产GPU（昇腾/寒武纪）推进。
EV & battery新能源车与电池
Battery & Lithium锂电池 		Supportive支持 Purchase-tax exemption extended to 2027 + trade-in subsidies; export expansion.购置税减免延至2027＋以旧换新补贴；出口扩张。
Solar / wind / storage光储风
Solar & PV光伏 		Neutral中性 Dual-carbon tailwind but acute overcapacity / price-war; policy now curbing irrational expansion.双碳顺风但产能过剩与价格战严重；政策转向遏制非理性扩张。
Defense & military国防军工
Defense军工 		Supportive支持 Defense budget +7.2% (above nominal GDP); self-reliance priority.国防预算+7.2%（高于名义GDP）；自主可控优先。
SOE reform / SOE revaluation (中特估)国企改革／中特估
SOE Value 中特估中特估·央企 		Supportive支持 CSRC market-cap-management directive: raise ROE, dividends, buybacks.证监会市值管理指引：提升ROE、分红、回购。
Consumption / trade-in (以旧换新)消费／以旧换新
Appliances家电 · Autos汽车整车 · Food & Beverage食品饮料 		Supportive支持 ¥300B ultra-long bonds fund appliance/car/electronics trade-in; 'expand domestic demand' priority.3000亿超长期国债支持家电/汽车/电子以旧换新；扩内需优先。
Property房地产
Property地产 		Supportive支持 Mortgage-rate + down-payment cuts, purchase-restriction relaxation, urban-village renovation — stabilize, not re-inflate.降房贷利率与首付、放松限购、城中村改造——稳定而非再膨胀。

See all 13 →查看全部 13 条 →

All sector-policy rows全部行业政策 (13)
Sector行业Stance立场Policy read政策解读
Domestic semis / IT localization (信创)国产半导体／信创
Semiconductors半导体		 Supportive支持 National self-reliance mandate + big-fund capital; foreign-chip substitution in gov/SOE by 2027.国家自主可控指令＋大基金资本；2027年前政府/国企国产替代。
AI computeAI算力
AI Compute & OpticsAI算力与光模块		 Supportive支持 'East-data-West-compute' national grid; domestic GPU (Ascend/Cambricon) push.『东数西算』国家算力网；国产GPU（昇腾/寒武纪）推进。
EV & battery新能源车与电池
Battery & Lithium锂电池		 Supportive支持 Purchase-tax exemption extended to 2027 + trade-in subsidies; export expansion.购置税减免延至2027＋以旧换新补贴；出口扩张。
Solar / wind / storage光储风
Solar & PV光伏		 Neutral中性 Dual-carbon tailwind but acute overcapacity / price-war; policy now curbing irrational expansion.双碳顺风但产能过剩与价格战严重；政策转向遏制非理性扩张。
Defense & military国防军工
Defense军工		 Supportive支持 Defense budget +7.2% (above nominal GDP); self-reliance priority.国防预算+7.2%（高于名义GDP）；自主可控优先。
SOE reform / SOE revaluation (中特估)国企改革／中特估
SOE Value 中特估中特估·央企		 Supportive支持 CSRC market-cap-management directive: raise ROE, dividends, buybacks.证监会市值管理指引：提升ROE、分红、回购。
Consumption / trade-in (以旧换新)消费／以旧换新
Appliances家电 · Autos汽车整车 · Food & Beverage食品饮料		 Supportive支持 ¥300B ultra-long bonds fund appliance/car/electronics trade-in; 'expand domestic demand' priority.3000亿超长期国债支持家电/汽车/电子以旧换新；扩内需优先。
Property房地产
Property地产		 Supportive支持 Mortgage-rate + down-payment cuts, purchase-restriction relaxation, urban-village renovation — stabilize, not re-inflate.降房贷利率与首付、放松限购、城中村改造——稳定而非再膨胀。
Innovative pharma创新药
Innovative Pharma & CXO创新药与CXO		 Supportive支持 NMPA accelerated review + national biotech fund; oncology/biosimilar focus.药监局加速审评＋国家生物科技基金；肿瘤/生物类似药聚焦。
Low-altitude economy低空经济 Supportive支持 CAAC + NDRC action plan 2024-2030; eVTOL / drone-logistics corridors; ¥1T-by-2030 goal.民航局＋发改委2024-2030行动计划；eVTOL／无人机物流走廊；2030年万亿目标。
Platform / internet平台经济／互联网 Neutral中性 Crackdown normalized to predictable regulation; supported as an employment + AI engine.整顿转为可预期的常态监管；作为就业与AI引擎获支持。
After-school education校外教培 Restrictive限制 double-reduction (双减) regime intact; for-profit K-9 tutoring still curtailed.双减政策延续；营利性义务教育阶段培训仍受限。
Property speculation房地产投机 Restrictive限制 'Houses are for living, not speculation' frame persists alongside the stabilization push.『房住不炒』基调与稳楼市并存。
Policy tape政策快讯 as of截至 2026-09-15
🔮 Policy prediction ledger政策预测台账 dated, checkable — accountability, not a forecast service有日期、可检验——问责，而非预测服务
Prediction预测Check by核查日Status状态
PBoC cuts RRR by ≥25bp by 2026-09-30.央行在2026-09-30前降准≥25个基点。2026-09-30Open未结
1Y LPR cut ≥10bp by 2026-12-31.1年期LPR在2026-12-31前下调≥10个基点。2026-12-31Open未结
Additional consumption trade-in / demand-side fiscal support announced in H2 2026.2026下半年出台追加的消费以旧换新／需求侧财政支持。2026-12-31Open未结

Context only — not a signal, score or trade. The National Team Radar is a read on what the state is doing, not a buy signal; it never gates a trade. PBoC corridor + China macro backdrop are point-in-time and may be revised; the sector matrix, NPC targets and prediction ledger are a hand-curated, dated intel substrate, not a model output.仅供参考，非信号、评分或交易。国家队雷达仅为国家队动向的观察，非买入信号，也从不用于交易闸口。央行利率走廊与中国宏观背景为特定时点快照，可能修订；行业矩阵、两会目标与预测台账为人工整理、有日期的情报底稿，并非模型输出。