A compact read on bond-market health: curve, credit, real rates, rates volatility, funding stress, global yields and cross-asset spillovers. Context first; trade signals elsewhere.债市健康度速览：曲线、信用、实际利率、利率波动、资金压力、全球收益率与跨资产传导。先看背景；交易信号另列。
Normal正常.recession odds ~15%衰退概率约15% · Market prices ~3 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.88% → 4.52%)市场为未来12个月定价约加息3次（基金利率 3.88% → 4.52%）
Curve slope (10y−3m)曲线斜率（10年−3月）
0.78pp
Recession odds (NY Fed)衰退概率（纽约联储）
14.7%
Priced landing定价落点
4.52%
Bull flattener牛市平坦
Other curve reads其他曲线读数
As of Oct 29, 2026截至 2026年10月29日
Credit
信用
Normal正常.spreads unremarkable利差平稳 · Company-bond stress is low; AI borrowing costs bear watching.整体压力仍低；AI公司的借贷成本值得关注。Corporate bond desk →公司债观察台 →
HY OAS高收益利差
3.4%
IG OAS投资级利差
0.89%
Excess bond premium超额债券溢价
-0.39%
As of Oct 29, 2026截至 2026年10月29日
Real rates & duration
实际利率与久期
+2.64%+2.64%.heavy on valuations压制估值
10y real (TIPS)10年实际利率
2.64%
10y breakeven10年盈亏平衡
2.34%
Lean long duration偏多久期
factors mostly agree各因子多数一致
Each factor scored 0–100: 0 argues to be short duration, 100 to be long.各因子评分 0–100：0=支持偏空久期，100=支持偏多久期。
Trend趋势0.0
Carry & roll (10y−3m)套息与滚动（10年−3月）84.0
Value (real 10-year)价值（10年实际利率）98.0
Term premium期限溢价98.5
Macro impulse (reflation)宏观动能（再通胀）40.0
ℹ Context only. The same factors helped most with drawdown control, not precise return timing.仅供参考。同类因子主要帮助控制回撤，而非精确择时收益。
As of Oct 29, 2026截至 2026年10月29日
Stress & the hedge
压力与对冲
Normal正常.Rates vol Normal; the stock-bond hedge is Mixed利率波动正常；股债对冲为中性
MOVE (rates vol)MOVE 利率波动
94.0
SOFR − IORBSOFR − 准备金利率
0.0bp
Stock-bond corr股债相关
0.25
Recession衰退5.0~
Drawdown回撤22.0✓
Credit信用26.0~
Rates vol利率波动42.0✓
Plumbing资金管道20.0·
Backtested历史回测top-stress readings were followed by a 10%+ S&P drawdown within 63 days压力最高档读数之后，63天内出现标普10%+回撤的概率为23.9%of the time vs a，而基准为12.2% baseline
(+11.7pp).
Glyphs: ✓ backtested · ~ directional · · context.符号：✓ 历史回测 · ~ 有方向 · · 仅背景。
As of Oct 29, 2026截至 2026年10月29日
How these four drivers are scored这四项驱动如何评分
Start with the health score, then check which leg is driving it: curve, credit, real rates, rates volatility, funding stress or stock-bond correlation.先看健康度评分，再看驱动分项：曲线、信用、实际利率、利率波动、资金压力或股债相关性。How to read this page →如何解读本页 →
Bonds & the world债券与全球市场
Global 10-year yields average 4.23% and are rising — the world is tightening.全球10年期收益率均值4.23%且持续上行——全球融资成本在收紧。
Global 10y全球10年期 4.23% · rising上行 +25bp/3mUS vs world美国 vs 世界 +131bp
sovereign主权
10y10年
real实际
slope斜率
3m Δ3月变化
vs 1-yr normal对比一年常态
vs US对美
curve曲线
United States美国
4.96%
2.64%
+0.31
+26bp
+1.5
+0
normal正常
Euro area (Bund)欧元区（德债）
3.38%
—
+0.38
+20bp
+1.4
-158
normal正常
Japan日本
3.06%
—
+1.10
+23bp
+1.4
-190
steep陡峭
United Kingdom英国mo月
5.24%
—
+1.53
+31bp
+1.6
+28
steep陡峭
Canada加拿大mo月
3.88%
—
+1.55
+34bp
+1.9
-108
steep陡峭
Australia澳大利亚mo月
5.28%
—
+0.77
+36bp
+1.7
+32
normal正常
Switzerland瑞士mo月
0.59%
—
—
+11bp
+1.6
-437
——
EM (hard-ccy OAS)新兴市场（硬通货利差）
1.73%
pctile百分位 51.0% · EMB down下行
rising走阔
Level = 10y yield. Real = 10y minus market-priced inflation. Slope = curve shape. 3m Δ = 63-day move. vs 1-yr normal = standard deviations from its own past-year average. vs US = 10y rate gap. Monthly OECD series are tagged.水平=10年收益率；实际=10年减去市场定价通胀；斜率=曲线形态；3月变化=63日变动；对比一年常态=较自身过去一年均值的标准差；对美=10年利差。OECD月度序列已标注。
Cushion = how much the 10y yield can rise before one year of carry + roll-down is erased (duration ≈ 8.0).缓冲 = 10年期收益率还能上行多少，才会抹掉一年套息+滚动收益（久期约 8.0）。
Lean long duration (lean +0.22, 60% of legs agree). Carry+roll ≈ 5.23%/yr; yields can rise ~65bp before a 10y loses money over a year.偏多久期（倾向 +0.22，60% 分项一致）。套息+滚动约 5.23%/年；收益率上行约 65基点以内，10年期一年总回报仍不亏。
Recession spreads & TP10 heuristic衰退利差与TP10启发式
10y−3m (NY Fed)10年−3月（纽约联储）0.78pp
Near-term fwd spread近端远期利差0.73pp
2s10s2年/10年0.31pp
TP10 curve heuristicTP10曲线启发式—
NY Fed recession prob纽约联储衰退概率14.7%
Bull flattener牛市平坦long rates falling faster than short — growth/inflation fears pulling the long end长端利率下行快于短端 — 增长/通胀担忧压低长端
Recession spreads & TP10 heuristic over time — zero = flat heuristic, below zero = negative heuristic衰退利差与TP10启发式走势 · 0=启发式为平，负值=启发式为负
10y−3m feeds the NY Fed model. The near-term forward spread is cleaner when markets price Fed cuts. The TP10 curve heuristic combines 2s10s with the 10y term-premium model estimate; it does not isolate expectations.10年−3月用于纽约联储模型。近端远期利差更能反映降息定价。TP10曲线启发式把2年/10年利差与10年期限溢价模型估计相加；它并不分离纯预期成分。
Fed path & policy美联储路径与政策
Where the market prices the funds rate — and where the Fed projects it市场为基金利率定价之处 · 以及美联储的预测
Market prices ~3 hikes over the next 12m (funds 3.88% → 4.52%)市场为未来12个月定价约加息3次（基金利率 3.88% → 4.52%）
At end-2026 the market implies 3.98% vs the Fed's 4.10% median dot (-12bp — market ≈ the Fed). The near-term forward spread is positive — no cuts priced near-term (+0.73pp).在end-2026，市场隐含 3.98% 对比美联储 4.10% 的中位点（-12基点 — 市场与美联储基本一致）。近端远期利差为正——近端未为降息定价（+0.73个百分点）。
Market-implied rates are prices, not forecasts. Use this as policy-path context.市场隐含利率是价格，不是预测。此处仅作政策路径背景。
Credit & real rates — detail信用与实际利率 · 详情
Credit — early stress signal信用 · 早期压力信号
Normal正常widening扩大
HY OAS高收益OAS3.4%
IG OAS投资级OAS0.89%
HY / IG ratio高收益/投资级3.8×
Baa−AaaBaa−Aaa0.48%
Excess bond premium超额债券溢价-0.39%
HY %ile (2y)高收益百分位(2年)93.0%
HY OAS高收益IG OAS投资级2014-11-032026-10-29
HY OAS shows default stress; EBP is the extra spread not explained by default risk. Credit usually weakens before equities.高收益OAS显示违约压力；EBP是违约风险解释不了的额外利差。信用通常早于股票走弱。
Real rates & inflation — the discount rate实际利率与通胀 · 贴现率
10y real (TIPS)10年实际利率2.64%
5y real5年实际利率2.33%
10y breakeven10年盈亏平衡通胀2.34%
5y5y fwd breakeven5年5年远期通胀2.2%
Term premium期限溢价—
Real 10y10年实际Breakeven盈亏平衡Term premium期限溢价2014-11-032026-10-29
10y yield decomposed — real + breakeven = nominal, term premium overlaid10年收益率分解 · 实际+盈亏平衡=名义，叠加期限溢价
Real yields are the discount rate; breakevens are the inflation read; term premium is the extra reward for duration risk.实际利率是贴现率；盈亏平衡通胀是通胀读数；期限溢价是承担久期风险的额外回报。
Company bonds — credit watch公司债 · 信用观察
Overall read整体研判
Credit stress: low信用压力：低
Watch — don't chase观望 · 勿追
Company-bond stress is low; AI borrowing costs bear watching.整体压力仍低；AI公司的借贷成本值得关注。
Negative correlation means bonds are diversifying equities. Positive correlation means the hedge is weak.负相关表示债券能分散股票风险；正相关表示对冲变弱。
Global rates & sovereign detail全球利率与主权详情
⑥ Global sovereign bonds — the world's cost of capital⑥ 全球主权债券 · 世界的资金成本
Global sovereign scorecard — G10 + EM全球主权记分卡 · G10 + 新兴市场
Global 10y全球10年期 4.23% · rising上行 +25bp/3mUS vs world美国 vs 世界 +131bp
Global 10y avg 4.23% and rising (+25bp/3m) — a global tightening/duration-bear impulse. US 10y is 131bp above the GDP-weighted rest of the world and stable — the dollar's rate-differential anchor. EM hard-currency OAS 1.73% (rising).全球10年期均值 4.23%，3个月 +25基点 — 全球收紧/久期偏空动能。美国10年期较GDP加权的世界其余高131基点，利差平稳 — 美元的利差之锚。新兴市场硬通货利差 1.73%（走阔）。
sovereign主权
10y10年
real实际
slope斜率
3m Δ3月变化
vs 1-yr normal对比一年常态
vs US对美
curve曲线
United States美国
4.96%
2.64%
+0.31
+26bp
+1.5
+0
normal正常
Euro area (Bund)欧元区（德债）
3.38%
—
+0.38
+20bp
+1.4
-158
normal正常
Japan日本
3.06%
—
+1.10
+23bp
+1.4
-190
steep陡峭
United Kingdom英国mo月
5.24%
—
+1.53
+31bp
+1.6
+28
steep陡峭
Canada加拿大mo月
3.88%
—
+1.55
+34bp
+1.9
-108
steep陡峭
Australia澳大利亚mo月
5.28%
—
+0.77
+36bp
+1.7
+32
normal正常
Switzerland瑞士mo月
0.59%
—
—
+11bp
+1.6
-437
——
EM (hard-ccy OAS)新兴市场（硬通货利差）
1.73%
pctile百分位 51.0% · EMB down下行
rising走阔
US 10y美债10年Bund德债JGB日债2020-10-302026-10-29
Level = 10y yield. Real = 10y minus market-priced inflation. Slope = curve shape. 3m Δ = 63-day move. vs 1-yr normal = standard deviations from its own past-year average. vs US = 10y rate gap. Monthly OECD series are tagged.水平=10年收益率；实际=10年减去市场定价通胀；斜率=曲线形态；3月变化=63日变动；对比一年常态=较自身过去一年均值的标准差；对美=10年利差。OECD月度序列已标注。
Euro-area fragmentation & the JGB curve欧元区分化与日债曲线
Euro fragmentation欧元分化 · Elevated升高widening扩大JGB 2s10s · Steepening陡峭化
Euro frag (all−AAA 10y)欧元分化（全体−AAA 10年）0.72pp
Bund 10y (euro core)德债10年（欧元核心）3.38%
JGB 2s10s日债 2年/10年1.1pp
Euro fragmentation欧元分化JGB 2s10s日债2/102012-11-012026-10-29
Euro fragmentation tracks periphery-vs-core stress. JGB 2s10s tracks Japan normalization and possible capital repatriation.欧元分化跟踪外围与核心压力；日债2/10年跟踪日本正常化及资本回流风险。
Global credit cycle — leverage risk (BIS)全球信用周期 · 杠杆风险 (BIS)
Private-sector leverage vs trend.私人部门杠杆相对趋势。Latest read最新读数 · as of截至 2026-03-31
economy经济体
credit-to-GDP gap信贷/GDP 缺口
state状态
debt-service ratio偿债比率
China中国
-5.1pp -0.7/yr
deleveraging去杠杆
19.1% +0.2/yr
United States美国
-11.3pp +1.3/yr
deleveraging去杠杆
13.8% -0.2/yr
BIS credit-to-GDP gap: private credit versus trend. Big positive gaps warn of banking-cycle risk; negative gaps show deleveraging. Slow structural context only.BIS信贷/GDP缺口：私人信贷相对趋势。大幅正缺口提示银行周期风险；负缺口表示去杠杆。仅为慢变量背景。
What bonds are doing to each market — right now当前债券对各市场的影响
Real-10y 2.64% (+21bp/3m), curve 0.78pp, HY OAS 3.4%. 2 markets with a bond-associated tailwind, 9 with a bond-associated headwind right now.10年实际利率 2.64%（+21基点/3月），曲线 0.78pp，高收益利差 3.4%。当前 2 个市场呈与债券指标相关的顺风，9 个呈相关逆风。
HY OAS and S&P returns co-move inversely in this contemporaneous panel; widening is an associated headwind, not a proven lead.本同步面板中，高收益利差与标普回报呈反向共变；利差走阔对应逆风，但并非已证明的领先关系。
Curve slope and XLF returns can co-move, but this panel does not observe bank net interest margins or prove a causal margin channel.曲线斜率与XLF回报可能同步共变，但本面板不观测银行净息差，也不证明因果性的息差通道。
A long-duration liquidity asset — falling real yields + calm rates-vol are a tailwind.长久期流动性资产——实际利率下行+利率波动平静为顺风。
Headwind逆风+21bp/3m
These numbers show how much each market typically moves in a week when its main bond driver moves. They describe today's headwind or tailwind — they are not forecasts. More chains: 这些数字显示：当主要债券驱动变动时，各市场在典型一周内的联动幅度。它们描述当前的顺风或逆风——不是预测。更多传导链见Rate & Inflation Transmission利率与通胀传导.
Treasury supply absorption — is the market digesting the debt?美债供给吸收 · 市场能否顺利消化债务？
recent coupon demand firm (5 of last 10 strong)recent coupon demand firm (5 of last 10 strong) · as of截至 2026-10-08
Coupon issuance (90d)票息发行(90日)1062.0 $bn
vs prior 90d较前90日-1.5%
auction拍卖
tenor期限
bid-to-cover认购倍数
indirect间接
dealer交易商
demand需求
2026-10-08 re
30yBond
2.54
70%
7%
strong强劲+0.8σ
2026-10-07 re
10yNote
2.77
78%
2%
strong强劲+1.9σ
2026-10-06
3yNote
2.62
55%
10%
in-line中性+0.0σ
2026-09-24
7yNote
2.42
49%
11%
soft偏弱-1.3σ
2026-09-23
5yNote
2.21
47%
14%
soft偏弱-2.6σ
2026-09-22
2yNote
2.63
49%
11%
in-line中性-0.2σ
2026-09-15 re
20yBond
2.57
52%
17%
soft偏弱-1.2σ
2026-09-10 re
30yBond
2.61
79%
2%
strong强劲+2.6σ
2026-09-09 re
10yNote
2.71
79%
4%
strong强劲+2.0σ
2026-09-08
3yNote
2.72
62%
11%
strong强劲+0.9σ
Auction demand is scored versus recent same-tenor auctions. Higher bid-to-cover and indirect share are stronger; higher dealer share is weaker.拍卖需求相对近期同期限拍卖评分。认购倍数与间接占比越高越强；交易商占比越高越弱。
Supply context only; does not affect the bond-health score.仅作供给背景，不影响债券健康度评分。
Bond state-change timeline债券状态变化时间线· 14 events · last事件 · 近 120d
Daily state changes with repeat flips filtered out. Context only.每日状态变化，已过滤重复翻转。仅供参考。
How to read this page如何解读本页
Start with the health score, then check which leg is driving it: curve, credit, real rates, rates volatility, funding stress or stock-bond correlation.先看健康度评分，再看驱动分项：曲线、信用、实际利率、利率波动、资金压力或股债相关性。
The compass and transmission sections are context. They summarize duration lean and cross-asset pressure, but they are not standalone trade calls.罗盘与传导部分是背景信息。它们概括久期倾向与跨资产压力，但不是独立交易信号。
Thresholds use practitioner levels; calibration only labels how useful each leg has been. Data comes mainly from FRED, Yahoo, ECB, Japan MoF, BIS, OECD and Treasury auction results.阈值采用常用市场水平；校准只标注各分项过去有多有用。数据主要来自FRED、Yahoo、欧洲央行、日本财务省、BIS、OECD与美债拍卖结果。
History历史 1927-12-30..2026-10-29 · built构建于 2026-10-30 00:51 UTC