How rates, inflation and the dollar push on every asset we track.利率、通胀与美元如何推动我们跟踪的每一类资产。
Rates are high & rising, inflation is cooling toward target, and the dollar is falling.利率高位上行，通胀降温接近目标，美元走软。
As of截至 2026-09-14 · context, not trade calls仅供参考，非交易信号
What changed最新变化Staples (defensive) moved into the headwind columnStaples (defensive)转入逆风Financials (rate beneficiary) left the headwind columnFinancials (rate beneficiary)移出逆风China large-cap (EM proxy) moved into the tailwind columnChina large-cap (EM proxy)转入顺风Gold left the tailwind column黄金移出顺风Long Treasuries (20y+) left the tailwind columnLong Treasuries (20y+)移出顺风
Rates利率?The real 10-year yield is the interest rate after inflation — the true cost of money. High and rising real yields pull money out of risk assets; falling ones push it back in.实际10年利率 = 名义利率减去通胀，即资金的真实成本。实际利率上行会从风险资产抽走资金，下行则相反。
High & rising高位上行
2.55% real 10-year yield实际10年利率 · higher than 100% of the past decade高于过去十年100%的时间
Inflation通胀?Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge; its 2% target drives rate policy. "Anchored" expectations mean markets still trust that target — the single most important thing to watch.核心PCE是美联储最看重的通胀指标，2%目标决定利率政策。“预期锚定”表示市场仍相信该目标——这是最关键的观察点。
Cooling toward target降温接近目标
3.3% core inflation核心通胀 · 1.3pp above the Fed's 2% goal高于美联储2%目标1.3个百分点
Core CPI核心CPI
2.8%
the headline cousin常见口径
Direction方向
Cooling降温
trend over recent months近几个月趋势
Expectations通胀预期
Anchored锚定
what markets price long-run市场的长期定价
The sticky part: housing costs still running最具粘性的部分：住房成本仍达3.4% — rents adjust slowly.——租金调整缓慢。
Dollar美元?Most world trade and debt is priced in dollars, so a strong dollar squeezes commodities, emerging markets and US exporters; a weak one relieves them. Read from the broad trade-weighted dollar index.全球多数贸易与债务以美元计价：美元走强会挤压大宗商品、新兴市场与美国出口商，走弱则相反。数据取自广义贸易加权美元指数。
Falling走软
broad trade-weighted dollar广义贸易加权美元
Trend趋势
Falling走软
vs major trade partners相对主要贸易伙伴
Fed liquidity美元流动性
Adding投放
fuel for risk assets风险资产的燃料
FX stress汇市压力
None无
no stress scenario active无压力情景触发
▾ US equities美国股票▾ EM equities新兴市场股票▾ Gold黄金▴ Oil (WTI)原油
Showing the strongest movers on each side. Bar length = how hard the measured forces are pushing; hover a label for the exact score and its drivers.仅显示各方向最强的资产。柱长＝实测力量推动的强度；悬停标签查看精确评分与驱动因素。
How a shock travels冲击如何传导
The direct hit first, then the knock-on effects in order. Hover a step for the full mechanism.先是直接冲击，再按顺序层层传导。悬停某一步查看完整机制。
Rates channel利率通道Higher real rates实际利率走高Active now当前活跃
Triggered by触发因素：the real 10-year yield rising fast实际10年期收益率快速上行
1
Long-lived assets fall first长久期资产首先承压?Rising real 10y yields lift the discount rate → long-duration equities, REITs and other long-duration assets de-rate first.实际10年期收益率上行抬高贴现率→长久期股票、REITs等长久期资产首先承压。
A firmer dollar squeezes commodities & emerging markets美元走强挤压大宗与新兴市场?Higher US real yields pull capital in → the dollar firms → gold, industrial commodities and EM are pressured.美国实际收益率走高吸引资本流入→美元走强→黄金、工业商品与新兴市场受压。
US Dollar·Gold·Copper✓Oil✓China large-cap·
3
Cyclicals lag; financials are relatively spared周期股落后，金融相对抗跌?A firm dollar + soft commodities → energy/materials relative headwind and EM-revenue exporters de-rate; financials are the relative beneficiary as curves steepen.强美元＋商品走软→能源/材料相对承压、新兴市场营收型出口商估值下修；曲线变陡时金融为相对受益者。
Triggered by触发因素：core inflation stuck above the 2% goal核心通胀高于2%目标
1
Markets price rates higher for longer市场定价利率更高更久?Core PCE/CPI stuck above the 2% target → the market reprices the terminal rate higher (breakevens, policy path) → broad equities carry a valuation headwind.核心PCE/CPI高于2%目标→市场上修终端利率（盈亏平衡、政策路径）→大盘股估值承压。
S&P 500✓Nasdaq 100✓
2
Small caps & rate-sensitive borrowers get squeezed小盘与利率敏感借款方承压?Higher-for-longer keeps real yields elevated → small caps and rate-sensitive borrowers are squeezed by financing cost.更高更久使实际收益率维持高位→小盘股与利率敏感借款方被融资成本挤压。
Russell 2000✓Financials✓
3
Defensives hold up better防御板块相对抗跌?PPI / ECI wage pressure compresses margins → defensives (staples, health care) relatively outperform.PPI／就业成本（ECI）工资压力压缩利润率→防御板块（必需消费、医疗）相对跑赢。
Staples~Health Care✓
Rates channel利率通道Rate cuts & a steeper curve降息与曲线变陡Active now当前活跃
Triggered by触发因素：the market starting to price rate cuts市场开始计入降息
1
Short-term rates fall; long bonds rally短端下行，久期资产上涨?Cuts priced (policy gap negative) → the front end falls and the curve bull-steepens → duration rallies.计入降息（政策缺口为负）→短端下行、曲线牛市变陡→久期资产上涨。
Long Treasuries✓
2
Banks & rate-sensitive property improve银行与利率敏感地产改善?A steeper curve → bank net-interest margins and rate-sensitive REITs/housing improve.曲线变陡→银行净息差与利率敏感的REITs/地产改善。
Financials✓Real Estate·
3
Small caps & cyclicals lead a risk-on turn小盘与周期股领涨风险偏好?Easier financial conditions → small caps and cyclicals lead a risk-on rotation.金融条件转松→小盘与周期股领涨的风险偏好轮动。
Triggered by触发因素：expectations pulling above model & survey预期高于模型与调查
1
Un-anchoring risk; the dollar firms脱锚风险，美元走强?Market inflation expectations drift above the model/survey → unanchoring risk; the dollar firms as the Fed is expected to stay restrictive. Counter-intuitively, gold's MEASURED response to this wedge is a headwind — the higher real yields from a restrictive Fed dominate the inflation-hedge bid.市场通胀预期高于模型/调查→脱锚风险；美元因预期美联储维持紧缩而走强。与直觉相反，黄金对此缺口的实测反应为逆风——紧缩带来的更高实际收益率压过了通胀对冲买盘。
US Dollar✓Gold✓
2
Real yields rise; growth stocks fall, defensives favoured实际收益率上行，成长承压、防御受青睐?Unanchoring → the Fed stays restrictive → real yields rise; long-duration growth de-rates while defensives are relatively favored.脱锚→美联储维持紧缩→实际收益率上行；长久期成长下修，防御相对受青睐。
Nasdaq 100·Health Care✓
3
Gold, the classic inflation hedge, is unreliable here黄金这一经典通胀对冲在此并不可靠?The textbook 'real-asset hedge' (energy, materials, gold) is unreliable for this wedge: with the Fed held restrictive, the measured beneficiaries are the dollar and defensives, not the inflation-beneficiary sectors.教科书式的“实物资产对冲”（能源、材料、黄金）对此缺口并不可靠：在美联储维持紧缩下，实测受益者是美元与防御板块，而非通胀受益板块。
Energy·Materials·
Cascade monitor传导链监测
CASCADE MONITOR / 传导链监测
Multi-step macro→stock chains being tracked as they arm and travel. Early-monitor context — not a forecast, not a signal.正在跟踪的多环节宏观→个股传导链，随其触发与推进而更新。早期监测背景——非预测、非信号。
Principal components of daily curve changes (Litterman-Scheinkman)日度曲线变动的主成分（Litterman-Scheinkman）
83%9%4%
Level水平Slope斜率Curvature曲率
The three classic factors span三个经典因子合计解释96.3%of curve variance — the textbook result, measured on our data.的曲线方差——教科书结论，在我方数据上实测。
Curve regime曲线状态
Bear flattener熊市平坦
short rates rising faster than long — a hawkish Fed; classic late-cycle tightening短端利率上行快于长端 — 鹰派美联储；典型的周期晚段紧缩
Fed-cycle phase美联储周期阶段:Hawkish Fed / active tightening — front end rising fastest, curve compressing toward inversion鹰派美联储／主动紧缩——短端上行最快，曲线向倒挂压缩 · slope斜率 -18bp/21d · term premium期限溢价rising上行
Favoured受益XLVXLPXLE
Pressured承压QQQXLKIWMXLRETLTBTC-USD
The Fed out-hiking the long end — the pre-inversion, pre-recession tell. Financing cost squeezes small caps and long-duration growth/REITs de-rate; defensives (health care, staples) are the relative haven. Note banks are NOT a winner here — the flattening compresses net interest margins (SSGA: ~−0.4%/mo).美联储加息快于长端——倒挂前、衰退前的信号。融资成本挤压小盘、长久期成长/REITs估值下修；防御板块（医疗、必需消费）为相对避风港。注意银行在此并非赢家——趋平压缩净息差（SSGA：约−0.4%/月）。
Recession dashboard衰退面板
low低 · 0/4 flags项亮起
Near-term fwd spread近端远期利差
+0.91
NY Fed 10y-3m probit纽约联储10年-3月概率
13%
Un-inversion alarm重新变陡警报
no否
TP-adjusted 2s10s期限溢价调整2-10年
+0.33
Policy stance政策立场: 3.63%funds vs基金 vs ~2.5% = restrictive偏紧 (+1.13pp)
The near-term forward spread (3m rate ~18m forward − 3m bill) statistically dominates the 2s10s — Engstrom-Sharpe (Fed 2018-19) find it renders the 2s10s redundant in a joint probit. We read 3m10y, not 2s10s, as the recession slope (Estrella-Mishkin γ = −0.53, −0.66). The genuinely ominous configuration is the curve RE-STEEPENING out of a deep inversion: the un-inversion has historically COINCIDED WITH or slightly led recession onset (1990 ≈3m, 2001 ≈6m after the curve turned positive) — a fresh dis-inversion is the late-cycle handoff, not an all-clear.近端远期利差（约18个月远期3月利率−3月票据）在统计上优于2-10年——Engstrom-Sharpe（美联储2018-19）发现在联合probit中它使2-10年变得多余。我们以3月-10年（而非2-10年）作为衰退斜率（Estrella-Mishkin γ＝−0.53、−0.66）。真正危险的形态是深度倒挂后曲线重新变陡：历史上重新转正与衰退开始大致同步或略微领先（1990年约3个月、2001年约6个月），因此刚出现的重新变陡是周期晚段的交接，而非解除警报。Funds 3.63% vs ~2.5% nominal-neutral = restrictive. Wright (2006): the same curve slope is more restrictive at a higher funds level — a flat curve at 5% funds is a stronger recession tell than at 2%.联邦基金3.63% vs 约2.5%名义中性＝偏紧。Wright（2006）：相同曲线斜率在更高基金利率下更具紧缩性——5%基金利率下的平坦曲线比2%下更强的衰退信号。
Slopes & momentum斜率与动能
Spread利差
Level水平
%ile分位
63d Δ63日变动
2s10s (cycle slope)2-10年（周期斜率）
+0.33
62
+4bp
3m10y (recession slope)3月-10年（衰退斜率）
+0.89
86
+23bp
5s30s (long-end / term-premium)5-30年（长端/期限溢价）
+0.62
68
-4bp
2s5s (front belly)2-5年（前段腹部）
+0.19
85
+12bp
Real 5s10s (TIPS curve)实际5-10年（TIPS曲线）
+0.26
54
-1bp
Breakeven 5s10s (inflation curve)盈亏平衡5-10年（通胀曲线）
-0.04
60
+1bp
TP-adjusted 2s10s期限溢价调整2-10年
+0.33
45
-73bp
Curve speed (63d)曲线速度（63日）: real 10y实际10年 +32bp · front 2y前端2年 +36bp · |real-speed| pctile|实际速度|分位 60. Rate-of-change beats level — the SPEED of a real-yield move breaks equities more than its level.变动速度胜过水平——实际收益率移动的速度比其水平更能冲击股票。
Term-spread trend (2y smooth)期限利差趋势（2年平滑）: +0.25 · rising上行. The literature flags the smoothed, business-cycle-frequency component of the 3m10y spread as the curve read with genuine equity-premium content (Faria-Verona 2020) — but OUR calibration finds it regime-dependent (the IC sign flips post-2015), so we carry it as context, never a timing signal.文献认为3月-10年利差经平滑的商业周期频率成分是收益率曲线中具有真正股权溢价含义的读数（Faria-Verona 2020）——但我方校准发现其依赖状态（IC符号在2015年后翻转），故仅供参考，绝非择时信号。
Forward rates & carry远期利率与持有收益
1y1y fwd1年1年远期4.84%
2y1y fwd2年1年远期4.77%
5y5y fwd5年5年远期5.15%
10y carry10年持有4.95%
10y roll-down10年滚动+0.29%
carry + roll持有＋滚动5.24%
Forward rates are the market-implied future short rates embedded in today's curve; carry+roll-down is the total return a duration holder earns if the curve is unchanged in a year (the cushion before price loss).远期利率是今日曲线隐含的市场预期未来短端利率；carry＋滚动收益是久期持有者在曲线一年不变时获得的总回报（价格亏损前的缓冲）。
Per-sector curve tilt under the current regime. ✓meas = a calibrated forward-IC edge in the transmission matrix; ·thy = textbook channel only.当前状态下各板块的曲线倾向。✓实测＝传导矩阵中存在校准的前瞻IC优势；·理论＝仅教科书传导。
tailwind顺风 · short短久期 staples — mild bond proxy with pricing power; relatively favoured when the curve flattens / growth slows (weaker rate sensitivity than utilities)必需消费——具定价权的温和类债券；曲线趋平/增长放缓时相对受青睐（利率敏感度弱于公用事业）
XLV✓curvature -0.08
tailwind顺风 · short短久期 health care defensive — low rate sensitivity, late-cycle relative haven医疗防御——利率敏感度低、周期晚段相对避风港
XLE✓curvature -0.10
tailwind顺风 · short短久期 energy — reflation/inflation beneficiary, bear-steepener winner能源——再通胀/通胀受益，熊市变陡赢家
XLB✓NTFS -0.21
tailwind顺风 · neutral久期中性 materials — cyclical reflation play, helped by a steepening growth curve材料——周期再通胀，受益于增长型变陡
XLI·thy
tailwind顺风 · neutral久期中性 industrials — cyclical, mild positive to a growth-led steepening工业——周期性，对增长型变陡温和正向
XLRE·thy
headwind逆风 · long长久期 REITs are bond-proxy long-duration — hurt by higher long ratesREITs为类债券长久期——受长端利率上行拖累
Equity duration: growth stocks discount cash flows further out, so they behave as long-duration assets and de-rate when real yields rise (~2× the rate-sensitivity of value, BIS 2022); value/financials are short-duration. HONEST CAVEAT: the long-run correlation of the value-minus-growth factor with Δ10y is only ~0.10 (AQR/Asness) — the link is concentrated in episodes (the +25% growth→value rotation of 2022) and is largely NOT pure duration. Small caps are driven by the FRONT end (floating-rate debt cost), a distinct channel from value/growth duration.股票久期：成长股贴现更远期的现金流，因而表现为长久期资产，实际收益率上行时估值下修（利率敏感度约为价值的2倍，BIS 2022）；价值/金融为短久期。诚实提醒：价值减成长因子与10年期变动的长期相关性仅约0.10（AQR/Asness）——该联系集中于特定时期（如2022年+25%的成长→价值轮动），且大部分并非纯久期效应。小盘由前端驱动（浮动利率债务成本），与价值/成长久期是不同的渠道。
No fast real-rate repricing — the curve is not flagging near-term equity stress.无快速实际利率重定价——曲线未对近端股票压力发出警示。
Display-only. No yield-curve leg passed the forward-drawdown scored-leg gate (see reports/rate-inflation-transmission-calibration.md).仅供展示。没有任何收益率曲线腿通过前瞻回撤可计分门槛（详见校准报告）。
Inflation & expectations — the deep read通胀与预期——深入解读decomposition · breakeven velocity分解 · 盈亏平衡速度▶
Inflation decomposition通胀分解
Headline − core CPI整体−核心CPI
+0.95
food / energy push食品/能源推动
Core services YoY核心服务同比
3.34
the sticky leg粘性部分
Shelter YoY住房同比
3.44
lagging rent滞后的租金
Core PCE − core CPI核心PCE−核心CPI
+0.58
basket / weight gap篮子/权重差
Actual − market-priced实际−市场定价
40bp
core CPI vs 10y breakeven核心CPI vs 10年盈亏平衡
10y breakeven10年盈亏平衡2.36%
5y5y breakeven5年5年盈亏平衡2.32%
Model 5y模型5年2.58%
Survey 1y调查1年4.2%
Mkt−model市场−模型-26bp
Core PPI核心PPI4.6%
ECI wagesECI薪酬3.4%
Breakeven velocity & cause — visibility only盈亏平衡速度与成因 — 仅供观察
2.36% 10y breakeven10年盈亏平衡
rising上行 ·
uptrend上升趋势
5d5日+1bp
10d10日+5bp
20d20日+8bp
63d63日+10bp
Accel 10d10日加速+2bp
Speed pctile速度分位58
5y5y 20d5y5y 20日+1bp
Cause成因: REFLATION
Reflation impulse — breakevens rising (oil/growth/fiscal). Inflation-tailwind for real assets, headwind for duration. Coincident.再通胀脉冲——盈亏平衡上行（油价/增长/财政）。对实物资产是顺风，对久期是逆风。同步指标。
Co-state联动状态:
oil油 +21% ·
real 10y实际10年 +11bp ·
nom 10y名义10年 +23bp ·
HY-OAS z高收益OAS z -0.75 ·
VIX 50pct
VISIBILITY ONLY — a falling breakeven is a thermometer, not a forecast. Across 2008 / 2014–15 / 2018 / 2020 / 2022 / 2023 it led the risk cascade in ~0 clean cases; breakeven velocity has ~0 forward-drawdown edge and the credit/vol co-state adds nothing beyond VIX. Use this to disambiguate an in-progress move (which kind of fall?), never to front-run one.仅供观察——下行的盈亏平衡是温度计，不是预测。在2008/2014-15/2018/2020/2022/2023中，它几乎没有一次干净地领先风险资产的瀑布式下跌；盈亏平衡速度对前瞻回撤几乎没有预测力，信用/波动率联动相对VIX无增量。用它来辨别正在发生的变动（属于哪一类下跌），而非抢跑。
How we measure — receipts & caveats测量方法——依据与告诫every tested signal, including the failures每个被检验的信号，包括失败的▶
We tested every rate and inflation driver on this page for real predictive edge. None passed the bar to be scored — so everything here is shown as context to explain moves, never as a signal to trade on. The table below is the full honest record.我们对页面上每个利率与通胀驱动都做了预测优势检验，无一通过计分门槛——因此本页内容仅为解释行情的背景，绝非交易信号。下表为完整的诚实记录。
Display-only. Scored-leg gate: NO rate/inflation leg passed the forward-drawdown bar with purged-CV robustness (see reports/rate-inflation-transmission-calibration.md).仅供展示。可计分腿检验：没有任何利率/通胀腿通过前瞻回撤门槛并满足清洗交叉验证稳健性（详见校准报告）。
Real-rate move VIOLENCE (|63d speed|, either direction)
DIRECTIONAL
0.118/0.161/0.071
3.0pp
—
Curve flattening impulse (flip: − = flattening = stress; INVERTED if post-inversion steepening is the tell)
CONTEXT
-0.034/-0.085/0.155
-2.1pp
—
3m10y TREND inversion (flip: low trend = stress) — Faria-Verona OOS equity-premium claim, tested on the return-forecast bar
CONTEXT
0.151/0.241/-0.045
6.5pp
—
• Display-only — never scored. The repricing of rates/inflation is REACTIVE; the curve moves after the data and the Fed, it does not lead them.仅供展示，从不计入评分。利率/通胀的重新定价是被动的；曲线在数据与美联储之后变动，而非领先。
• Rate-of-change beats level: the SPEED of a real-yield move breaks equities more than its level. Coefficients are the measured forward IC, not a promise.变动速度比水平更重要：实际收益率移动的速度比其水平更能冲击股票。系数为已测得的前瞻IC，并非承诺。
• Scenario moves apply a historical beta to a hypothetical shock — they are regime-dependent illustrations, not predictions, and assume the shock persists one quarter.情景中的涨跌幅是将历史beta应用于假设冲击——属于依赖状态的示意而非预测，且假设冲击持续一个季度。
• The real / nominal / breakeven 63d-change drivers are mechanically collinear (real = nominal − breakeven); do not treat them as independent confirmations.实际／名义／盈亏平衡的63日变动驱动在机制上共线（实际＝名义−盈亏平衡）；不应视为相互独立的印证。
Data.数据。Free / keyless FRED: full Treasury curve, real yields (TIPS), 5y/10y/5y5y breakevens, term premium; headline & core CPI, headline & core PCE (the Fed’s 2% target gauge), PPI, ECI wage growth, shelter & core-services CPI; Cleveland model + UMich survey inflation expectations. All point-in-time vintaged for honest backtests. Dollar read: broad trade-weighted dollar + the Dollar Desk on the Forex page.免费/无密钥的FRED：完整国债曲线、实际利率(TIPS)、5/10年与5年5年盈亏平衡、期限溢价；整体与核心CPI、整体与核心PCE（美联储2%目标）、PPI、ECI工资增长、住房与核心服务CPI；克利夫兰模型与密歇根调查通胀预期。均按时点存档以便诚实回测。美元读数：广义贸易加权美元及外汇页的美元台。
Everything on this page is a measured relationship shown to explain market moves — none of it is a prediction or a trade signal. When a relationship failed our tests, we say so in the receipts above.本页所有内容均为用于解释行情的实测关联——皆非预测或交易信号。未通过检验的关联，已在上方依据中如实注明。