Fed & Policy Watch美联储与政策观察

The Fed will change how it publishes forecasts or explains decisions by year-end.美联储将在年底前调整预测发布或决策说明方式。

The Fed will recommend replacing flexible average inflation targeting with a strict 2% goal by year-end.美联储将在年底前建议用严格的2%目标取代灵活平均通胀目标。

Warsh will keep his rate forecast private, or the dot plot will pause, through September.沃什将至少到9月继续不公开利率预测，或暂停点阵图。

The Fed will name at least one outside task-force expert by September.美联储将在9月前公布至少一名外部工作组专家。

The Fed will not cut rates at its July or September meetings.美联储不会在7月或9月会议上降息。

Treasury will leave longer-term auction sizes unchanged at the August refunding.财政部将在8月再融资中维持中长期国债拍卖规模不变。

Result结果: Treasury kept nominal coupon auction sizes unchanged for the August refunding and said current sizes should hold for at least the next several quarters.财政部在8月再融资中维持名义票息债券拍卖规模不变，并表示现有规模预计至少未来数个季度保持不变。 · Source来源

Treasury will keep saying its goal is lower borrowing costs.财政部将继续强调降低融资成本。

Bank regulators will formally advance rules that make Treasury trading easier for banks.银行监管机构将正式推进规则，为银行交易美债释放空间。

The SEC will advance central clearing for Treasury trades.美国证监会将推进美债交易的中央清算。

The Fed will keep reinvesting mortgage-bond runoff into Treasury bills through 2026.美联储将在2026年继续把抵押债券到期资金再投资于短期国库券。

The 25% tariff on advanced chips will remain or expand through year-end.25%的先进芯片关税将在年底前维持或扩大。

At least one pilot reactor would reach criticality by July 4. Result: all three did.至少一座试点反应堆将在7月4日前达到临界；结果是三座全部完成。

The Energy Department will release at least 20 metric tons of advanced nuclear fuel by year-end.能源部将在年底前释放至少20吨先进核燃料。

The AI reactor program will announce a contracted or selected site by October 2027.人工智能反应堆项目将在2027年10月前公布签约或入选场址。

Nuclear and uranium funds will beat the S&P 500 over the next two quarters.核能和铀基金将在未来两个季度跑赢标普500。

Demand for Treasury bills will remain strong through August.短期国库券需求将在8月保持强劲。

Result结果: Late-August bill auctions remained well covered: the Aug. 27 28-day bill drew $272.9B of tenders for $100.0B accepted (2.73x bid-to-cover). P6 separately confirms there was no August coupon-size increase.8月下旬国库券拍卖认购仍充足：8月27日28天期国库券投标2729亿美元、接受1000亿美元，投标倍数为2.73倍。P6另行确认8月没有上调票息债券拍卖规模。 · Source来源

Bank stocks will benefit when bank-capital rule changes advance.银行资本规则调整取得进展时，银行股将受益。

Long-term Treasuries will avoid a disorderly selloff in the second half of 2026.长期美债将在2026年下半年避免失序抛售。

The U.S. tariff rate on China will stay near 10% while one legal authority replaces another.在关税法律授权切换期间，美国对华关税将维持在约10%。

The administration will replace the struck-down tariff authority with similar protection under other laws.政府将用其他法律延续被法院否定的关税保护。

A separate U.S. semiconductor tariff will take effect around June 2027.美国将于2027年6月前后实施单独的半导体关税。

Hormuz will avoid a full closure through September. This is under pressure after traffic nearly stopped.霍尔木兹海峡将在9月前避免完全关闭；航运近乎停摆后，这一判断已承压。

The U.S. and Iran will not sign a comprehensive nuclear deal by September.美国与伊朗不会在9月前签署全面核协议。

The 2027 U.S. defense budget will rise after inflation from 2026.扣除通胀后，美国2027财年国防预算将高于2026财年。

NATO allies will keep the 5%-by-2035 pledge and continue raising defense budgets.北约盟国将维持2035年前达到5%的承诺，并继续提高国防预算。

Defense funds will beat the S&P 500 over the next two quarters.国防基金将在未来两个季度跑赢标普500。

Stablecoin issuers will increase their Treasury holdings materially in 2026.稳定币发行商将在2026年显著增加美债持仓。

No coordinated dollar-devaluation policy will be enacted by year-end.年底前不会出台协同推动美元贬值的政策。

Oil will stay below $100 unless Hormuz closes again. This is under pressure as traffic slows.除非霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭，否则油价将低于100美元；航运放缓已令这一判断承压。

Treasury will support a strong dollar without direct currency intervention through year-end.财政部将在年底前支持强美元，但不会直接干预汇率。

The dollar will hold up better than rate differences alone suggest as markets price easier policy.当市场计入宽松政策时，美元表现将强于利差单独暗示的水平。

Before the next cut, a Fed task force will create room to look through supply inflation or assume stronger productivity.下次降息前，美联储工作组将为淡化供应型通胀或采用更高生产率假设留出空间。

If the Fed cuts soon after the midterms with inflation above 3%, the political backlash will be milder than in 2019 or 2024.若中期选举后不久在通胀高于3%时降息，政治反弹将弱于2019年或2024年。

Gold will bottom when the dollar, two-year yield, real yields and hike odds peak together—before the first rate cut.黄金将在美元、两年期收益率、实际收益率和加息概率同步见顶时触底，并早于首次降息。

Gold will not make a new record while the Fed is easing between late 2026 and mid-2027.在2026年底至2027年中美联储宽松期间，黄金不会创下新高。

The 10-year real yield will peak near 2.2%–2.5% in 2026 and stay below that level in 2027.10年期实际收益率将在2026年于2.2%至2.5%附近见顶，并在2027年保持低于该区间。

The Fed will not cut rates at its first meeting after the November midterms.美联储不会在11月中期选举后的首次会议上降息。

Stablecoin Treasury holdings will approach $300B, but Fed expectations will still drive bill yields.稳定币发行商的美债持仓将接近3000亿美元，但短债收益率仍主要受美联储预期影响。

During a hard-asset rebound, silver and bitcoin will rise more than gold.在硬资产反弹期间，白银和比特币的涨幅将超过黄金。

The Fed will hold rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting.美联储将在7月28日至29日会议上维持利率不变。

Result结果: The FOMC held the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29.FOMC于7月29日将联邦基金目标区间维持在3.50%–3.75%不变。 · Source来源

Three-month average job growth will stay below 100,000 through the July report.截至7月就业报告，三个月平均新增就业将保持在10万以下。

Result结果: BLS reported a 20,000 three-month average payroll gain through July, well below 100,000.美国劳工统计局公布，截至7月的非农三个月平均新增就业为2万人，明显低于10万人。 · Source来源

Other tariff laws will keep the U.S. tariff wall on China near its pre-ruling level through year-end.其他关税法律将在年底前使美国对华关税壁垒接近裁决前水平。

Bank regulators will publish a rule easing capital treatment for Treasury trades.银行监管机构将发布规则，放宽美债交易的资本要求。

Result结果: Not scored: the agencies had already finalized the relevant eSLR reform in November 2025, before this call entered the ledger.不计分：相关机构已于2025年11月最终敲定eSLR改革，早于该判断进入记录的时间。 · Source来源

This Iran entry was already being rewritten when it entered the track record.该伊朗条目进入记录时已在重写。

Result结果: Not scored: this entry was already being rewritten after its ceasefire premise broke, so it never entered the ledger as a clean active forecast.不计分：该条目进入记录时，停火前提已破裂且内容已在重写，因此从未作为一条完整的有效预测进入记录。