International macro command center国际宏观指挥中心

🇯🇵Japan Macro日本宏观

Japan national economy; Nikkei 225 is market context, not the macro universe.日本全国经济；日经225仅作市场背景，并非宏观统计范围。

Defensive防御
Data through数据截至 2026-09-14 ·Built生成 2026-09-15 00:06 UTC
Defensive posture防御姿态
Defend capital: favour quality balance sheets and avoid unhedged yen assumptions.以保本为先：偏好优质资产负债表，避免无对冲日元假设。

50 + growth impulse − inflation pressure − recession stress + liquidity + current calibrated-risk state. Descriptive, not a forecast.50 + 增长脉冲 − 通胀压力 − 衰退压力 + 流动性 + 当前校准风险状态。仅作描述，不是预测。

Regime周期
Stagflation
Liquidity流动性
Unknown
Recession stress衰退压力
52.00/100
Source state数据状态
Stale inputs输入陈旧

Pullback risk回撤风险

Odds measured on this market's own history — windows, not certainties, re-drawn nightly.概率基于本市场自身历史测算 — 是概率窗口而非定论，每晚重算。

✅
Risk Radar风险雷达 CALM平静 · 53/100 ?Pullback-risk gauge. Use high readings to trim risk, not to pick stocks.回撤风险仪表。高读数用于降风险，不用于选股。
Calm — no driver elevated平静 — 无驱动升高
Pullback odds回撤概率 ≥5% drop · measured vs normal≥5% · 实测对比常态
31%within 21 days21 日内
1.0× vs normal对比常态 31%
7%
5d5日
17%
10d10日
31%
21d21日
normal常态
US rate shock美债利率冲击 87 Parabolic extension / exhaustion抛物线伸展／透支 73 Yen depreciation / outflows日元贬值／资金外流 9
Do应对Normal exposure.正常仓位。
🧾 Track record往绩11 graded已评分 · 1.38× vs base rate对比基准 · not yet moving the verdict尚未参与定调 ?Past-year hit rate: too few graded alerts yet | by scare: on 1 of 2 rate_shock days (daily readings — consecutive days overlap) | Watch/caution: too few graded | Recovery: too few graded过去一年命中率：暂无足够评分记录；按类别：2 个rate_shock日中有 1 天（按日读数——连续日期相互重叠） | 观察/谨慎：暂无足够评分 | 修复信号：暂无足够评分

Command cards指挥卡片

Open any card for evidence, definitions and provenance.打开任一卡片查看证据、定义与来源。

60-session decision path60交易日决策路径

Same descriptive scoring rule through history; the current risk-state adjustment is excluded from prior points.历史沿用同一描述性规则；过往点位不含当前风险状态调整。

2026-06-23range区间 27–722026-09-14

Local macro lenses本地宏观视角

Country-specific questions, not generic labels with the flag changed.国家专属问题，而非仅替换国旗的通用标签。

BoJ normalization日银政策正常化

Separate a durable policy shift from meeting-day noise.区分持久政策转变与会议日噪音。

1.27%
Bank of Japan

Wages & services inflation工资与服务通胀

The key test of a self-sustaining inflation cycle.检验通胀周期能否自我维持的核心。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Statistics Bureau of Japan

Tankan conditions短观景气

Corporate pricing, capex and labour-intention breadth.企业定价、资本开支与招聘意向广度。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Bank of Japan

JGB curve日本国债曲线

Transmission channel for normalization and bank duration risk.政策正常化与银行久期风险的传导渠道。

1.40pp
Bank of Japan

Yen pressure日元压力

Imported inflation, funding and foreign-flow pressure.输入性通胀、融资与外资流动压力。

154.48
Bank of Japan

Production & consumption生产与消费

Tests whether domestic demand confirms the market tape.检验内需是否确认市场走势。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Trade & current account贸易与经常账户

Separates energy-import drag from export competitiveness.区分能源进口拖累与出口竞争力。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Ministry of Finance, Japan

Verified policy calendar已核实政策日历

Past dates show a released state; the dashboard does not invent the decision outcome.过去日期显示已发布状态；看板不虚构决议结果。

2026-06-16

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting日本银行货币政策会议

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-07-31

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting日本银行货币政策会议

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-09-18

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting日本银行货币政策会议

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-10-30

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting日本银行货币政策会议

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-12-18

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting日本银行货币政策会议

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming

Source health & data contract数据健康与数据契约

Official where practical; every fallback and gap remains visible.尽可能采用官方源；每项备用源与缺口均保持可见。

Provider提供方Role用途Cadence频率Access访问Status状态
Bank of JapanPolicy, Tankan, money, rates and balance of paymentsDaily / monthly / quarterlyKeyless JSON/CSV APIauthoritative target / active where mapped
Statistics Bureau of JapanCPI, labour and household spendingMonthly / quarterlyOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Cabinet Office, JapanGDP, consumption and leading indicatorsMonthly / quarterlyOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Ministry of Economy, Trade and IndustryIndustrial production and services activityMonthlyOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Ministry of Finance, JapanTrade and external balanceMonthlyOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official-source republisher)Operational fallback for OECD, Eurostat and central-bank seriesSource dependentKeyless CSVactive fallback
Known limitation:已知限制： Japan CPI fallback coverage is stale; current inflation detail remains explicitly unavailable until the official adapter is production-verified.日本CPI备用序列已陈旧；在官方适配器通过生产验证前，当前通胀细项明确显示为不可用。

Where next下一站

All five dashboards share this contract and interaction model.五个看板共享此数据契约与交互模型。

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