Alternative Data · China desk另类数据 · 中国台

China Alternative-Data Desk中国另类数据台

An institutional read on A-shares from data beyond price — who controls the tape, where independent smart-money feeds agree, limit-up momentum, narrative rotation and event catalysts. Context only, no validated edge: a watchlist seed, never a size.用价格之外的数据审视A股——谁在主导盘面、独立主力数据源在何处一致、涨停动能、题材轮动与事件催化。仅供参考、不声称已验证优势:自选股种子,绝非仓位。

Who controls the tape谁在主导盘面 Fire-sale恐慌抛售

Stand aside — forced selling is still clearing.观望——被迫抛售仍在出清。

Stand aside / protect观望 / 保护 Mixed hands多方混杂 Risk风险 · Fire-sale抛售 Why ›依据 › · tape盘面 2026-10-28Row 2026-10-28 · 1 days behind tape tail 2026-10-29数据行2026-10-28 · 落后盘面末端2026-10-29共1天Margin 5d -2.71%融资5日 -2.71%Southbound net (万 CNY) -804南向净额(万元) -804QVIX 19.5QVIX 19.5
Trading intensity成交强度 vs 20-day normal ›相对20日常态 ›
Cross-section tilt横截面倾向 2207 accumulate吸筹 2656 distribute派发 -8 net净
No validated edge is claimed anywhere on this page. Every panel is a display JOIN of independent free feeds — where they agree, not a backtest. A-share cross-sectional value has a negative Sharpe and sell-side ratings are near-universally "buy". Treat everything here as a watchlist seed and a research candidate, never a sizer or a trade.本页任何部分均不声称已验证优势。每个面板都是独立免费数据源的展示性合并——展示其一致之处,而非回测。A股横截面价值的夏普为负、卖方评级近乎全为“买入”。请将此处一切视为自选股种子与研究候选,绝非仓位或交易。
01

Smart-money convergence主力共振

≥3 of 7 feeds agree7源中≥3源一致 · 3250 Watch — a watchlist seed观望 — 自选股种子

Seven independent A-share feeds, each rank-scored across the market, then read as one signed convergence: where consensus, valuation, financing, main-force flow, retail attention, hot-money and block trades line up. The seal-strip shows which feeds are constructive (green) or cautionary (red) per name.七个独立的A股数据源各自在全市场排名评分,再合并为一个带符号的共振:一致预期、估值、融资、主力资金、散户关注、龙虎榜与大宗交易在何处一致。印记条显示每只个股上各数据源是偏建设性(绿)还是偏谨慎(红)。

constructive · cautionary · flat · no feed建设性 · 谨慎 · 中性 · 无数据 7 feeds ›7个数据源 ›
Name名称 Convergence共振印记 Score评分 Read解读 Flags标记
603273.SS
+0.95 High +高置信 ↑
603089.SS
+0.89 High +高置信 ↑
301132.SZ
+0.87 High +高置信 ↑
000563.SZ
+0.86 High +高置信 ↑
顺丰控股
002352.SZ
+0.85 High +高置信 ↑
688137.SS
+0.85 High +高置信 ↑ Leverage crowded杠杆拥挤
600518.SS
+0.85 High +高置信 ↑
600202.SS
+0.84 High +高置信 ↑
000676.SZ
+0.83 High +高置信 ↑
冠农股份
600251.SS
+0.83 High +高置信 ↑
精工钢构
600496.SS
+0.83 High +高置信 ↑ Leverage crowded杠杆拥挤
002076.SZ
+0.83 High +高置信 ↑
688178.SS
+0.82 High +高置信 ↑
永安药业
002365.SZ
+0.81 High +高置信 ↑
合百集团
000417.SZ
+0.81 High +高置信 ↑
000030.SZ
+0.80 High +高置信 ↑
Other side — feeds leaning distribute另一侧 — 数据源偏派发
002514.SZ -0.99 Elevated −偏强 ↓
603535.SS -0.98 Elevated −偏强 ↓
605199.SS -0.98 Elevated −偏强 ↓
002581.SZ -0.96 Elevated −偏强 ↓
301418.SZ -0.96 Elevated −偏强 ↓
002678.SZ -0.96 Elevated −偏强 ↓
02

Limit-up pool涨停池 涨停

14 names只 Momentum map — chase-veto on froth动能图 — 过热则否决追涨

China's most distinctive microstructure signal, with no US analogue: which names are sealing daily limit-ups, how many boards in a row, and how well the seal held. Consecutive boards and a heavy seal fund mean momentum; a froth flag means the move is late — don't chase.中国最具特色、且美股没有对应物的微观结构信号:哪些个股在封涨停、连了几个板、封单是否牢固。连板与大额封单代表动能;过热标记意味着行情已晚——别追。

Sealing limit-ups正在封涨停

Name名称Sector板块 Boards连板Seal ¥yi封单亿 Read解读
001219.SZ 休闲食品 5 0.6 froth过热
603131.SS 通用设备 3 2.6 froth过热
002172.SZ 医疗服务 3 0.6 froth过热
阳光照明 600261.SS 照明设备 2 6.1 froth过热
603703.SS 光学光电 2 2.4 froth过热
桂林三金 002275.SZ 中药Ⅱ 2 1.1 froth过热
传智教育 003032.SZ 教育 2 0.9 froth过热
002086.SZ 农产品加 2 0.8 froth过热
巴比食品 605338.SS 食品加工 2 0.0 froth过热
301520.SZ 医疗服务 1 1.4 froth过热
002432.SZ 医疗器械 1 1.1 first boards首板
永安药业 002365.SZ 化学制药 1 1.0 first boards首板
600721.SS 医疗服务 1 0.9 froth过热
迎驾贡酒 603198.SS 白酒Ⅱ 1 0.8 first boards首板

Where the heat is — limit-ups by sector热度分布 — 分板块涨停

A rotation thermometer: the sectors printing the most limit-ups right now. Concentration in one theme is the tell.轮动温度计:当前涨停最多的板块。热度集中于单一题材即是信号。

白酒Ⅱ 4
休闲食品 3
医疗服务 3
元件 3
通用设备 2
中药Ⅱ 2
一般零售 2
医疗器械 2
房地产开 2
装修建材 2
饮料乳品 2
光学光电 1
03

Narrative rotation题材轮动 概念板块

top by 3-month momentum按3月动能排序 Rotation heat — late-stage means don't chase轮动热度 — 尾声阶段勿追

Where the story money is going: THS concept baskets ranked by 3-month return, each tagged with a cycle position (from washout to overheated) and, where a global read confirms it, a cross-market momentum chip. Overheated + far above trend is a warning, not an invitation.故事资金的去向:同花顺概念板块按3个月收益排序,各自标注周期位置(从洗盘到过热),若有全球读数印证则附跨市场动能标记。过热且远高于趋势是警告,而非邀请。

Basket板块Category分类 3-mo3月Cycle周期 Leaders龙头
Data Rights数据确权 Software & Internet软件与互联网 +15% Recovering修复回升 深桑达A · 视觉中国 · 中原传媒
Short-Form Drama Games短剧游戏 Media & Culture传媒文化 +10% Recovering修复回升 创维数字 · 南极电商 · 岩山科技
Influencer Economy网红经济 Media & Culture传媒文化 +10% Recovering修复回升 南极电商 · 粤传媒 · 奥海科技
Mobile Gaming手机游戏 Media & Culture传媒文化 +9% Recovering修复回升 游族网络 · 拓维信息 · 天娱数科
Digital Identity电子身份证 Frontier Tech前沿科技 +9% Recovering修复回升 恒宝股份 · 天融信 · 京北方
Online Education在线教育 Software & Internet软件与互联网 +9% Mid-cycle周期中段 冠捷科技 · 创维数字 · 科大讯飞
Virtual Digital Avatars虚拟数字人 Technology & AI科技与AI +7% Recovering修复回升 科大讯飞 · 拓维信息 · 润建通信
NFT & BlockchainNFT概念 Software & Internet软件与互联网 +7% Beaten down深度超跌 神州信息 · 智度投资 · 视觉中国
Online Gaming网络游戏 Media & Culture传媒文化 +7% Recovering修复回升 电广传媒 · 游族网络 · 岩山科技
Huawei Pangu华为盘古 Technology & AI科技与AI +7% Beaten down深度超跌 拓维信息 · 捷成股份 · 拓尔思
E-Sports电子竞技 Media & Culture传媒文化 +6% Recovering修复回升 冠捷科技 · 游族网络 · 天娱数科
Synthetic Biology合成生物 Healthcare & Biotech医药与生物科技 +6% Recovering修复回升 翰宇药业 · 药石科技 · 义翘神州

Cycle position: washout → building → strong → overheated. Overheated (red) = crowded and extended.周期位置:洗盘 → 蓄势 → 强势 → 过热。过热(红)=拥挤且乖离过大。 · 2026-10-29

04

Event catalysts事件催化 特殊事件

Calendar & filings — dates to watch日历与公告 — 需留意的日期

Hard, disclosed events that move A-share names: share unlocks, exchange inquiry letters, corporate buybacks, pledge stress and ST-board changes. Ranked by disclosed size and exchange-published type — no directional score, just the calendar.推动A股个股的、已披露的硬性事件:限售解禁、交易所问询函、公司回购、质押压力与ST变动。按披露规模与交易所公布类型排序——不作方向性评分,只呈现日历。

6 of 7 planes up to date · Lagging:7条数据线中6条已更新 · 滞后: Risk warnings风险警示 oldest lagging plane as of 2026-10-13最早滞后数据截至2026-10-13

Share unlocks限售解禁 63

Insiders freed to sell in the next 30 days — supply overhang.未来30天内可减持——供给压力。

丹娜生物 2026-11-03 · 6.7× the free float为流通量的6.7倍
德力佳 2026-11-09 · 6.2× the free float为流通量的6.2倍
恒坤新材 2026-11-18 · 4.3× the free float为流通量的4.3倍
中诚咨询 2026-11-09 · 3.7× the free float为流通量的3.7倍
北矿检测 2026-11-18 · 3.4× the free float为流通量的3.4倍

Exchange inquiries交易所问询 2

Regulators asking hard questions — a risk flag, not a verdict.监管层发问——风险信号,非定论。

安宁股份 2026-10-24
并行科技 2026-10-15

Active buybacks进行中回购 352

Companies buying their own shares — an insider conviction floor.公司回购自家股份——内部人信心的底。

美的集团 ¥112.3yi
宁德时代 ¥33.0yi
格力电器 ¥23.2yi
海尔智家 ¥23.1yi
五粮液 ¥16.0yi

Pledge stress质押压力 11

Controlling shareholders heavily pledged — forced-sale tail risk.大股东高比例质押——被迫平仓的尾部风险。

*ST三房 79%
海德股份 75%
ST雪发 68%
金徽股份 64%
深华发A 64%

ST boardST板 406

Special-treatment names — delisting-risk watch. Avoid unless you know why.ST(特别处理)个股——退市风险观察。除非明确原因,否则回避。

ST中化气
ST思银
ST兆久成
ST唐邦
ST博阳

Earnings pre-announcements业绩预告 5459

Companies flagging results early — the biggest guided swings.提前预告业绩的公司——预告变动最大者。

天齐锂业 profit up预增 +265430%
江波龙 profit up预增 +68299%
欧科亿 profit up预增 +50197%
石药创新 back to profit扭亏 +46347%
德明利 back to profit扭亏 +32601%
05

Crowding & fragility拥挤与脆弱

Contrarian caution — crowded means fragile逆向警示 — 拥挤即脆弱

The other side of momentum. Names where leverage, pledge risk, limit-up froth, an attention spike and a rich valuation stack up together are fragile — a small shock unwinds them fast. This is a caution list, not a short list.动能的另一面。当杠杆、质押风险、涨停过热、关注度飙升与高估值同时叠加,个股即脆弱——小冲击也会令其快速瓦解。这是警示名单,不是做空名单。

Crowded names — fragility watch拥挤名单 — 脆弱度观察

A name lists here when at least 3 of 5 fragility legs light — Margin froth, Pledge tail-risk, Limit-up froth, Attention spike, Rich valuation — or, when none of those light, the older leverage-crowded flag (financing balance up more than 25% over 20 days). Names come from the convergence board above, highest convergence first, up to 20. Margin froth is a level — financing balance against float market cap — not a change.名单条件:5项中至少3项脆弱度线索亮起——融资拥挤、质押尾部风险、涨停拥挤、关注度飙升、估值偏高;若均未亮起,则沿用较早的融资拥挤标记(融资余额20日增幅超过25%)。名单取自上方共振板,按共振从高到低,最多20只。融资拥挤是水平而非变化(融资余额相对流通市值)。

688137.SS600496.SS688203.SS000995.SZ600693.SS688004.SS688071.SS300709.SZ600771.SS002741.SZ603163.SS600333.SS603337.SS603268.SS301666.SZ688131.SS688802.SS603129.SS688056.SS688152.SS
Name名称Stacked flags叠加标记Convergence共振
688137.SS Leverage crowded杠杆拥挤 +0.85
精工钢构 600496.SS Leverage crowded杠杆拥挤 +0.83
688203.SS Leverage crowded杠杆拥挤 +0.77
06

Sell-side tells卖方信号

Consensus context — a tally, not a rating一致预期背景 — 计数而非评级

Chinese sell-side is near-universally "buy", so the rating is noise. Two things carry signal: which names the most desks put on their monthly gold-stock list, and which companies pre-announce the biggest earnings surprises.中国卖方近乎全为“买入”,评级本身是噪音。两处有信号:当月被最多研究所列入金股名单的个股,以及预告业绩变动最大的公司。

Broker gold-stock picks券商金股 202610

Most-picked names this month, as a pick-count tally — a discrete monthly list, distinct from the ~97%-buy ratings.当月被推荐最多的个股,按推荐家数计——离散月度名单,区别于近97%“买入”评级。

药明康德 603259.SS 11 中国银河 · 中泰证券 · 光大证券 · 兴业证券 …
中际旭创 300308.SZ 7 中国银河 · 华泰证券 · 太平洋 · 招商证券 …
桐昆股份 601233.SS 4 东海证券 · 中金公司 · 申万宏源 · 长江证券
长白山 603099.SS 3 中银证券 · 华源证券 · 太平洋
牧原股份 002714.SZ 3 华安证券 · 华鑫证券 · 国盛证券
中国太保 601601.SS 3 中国银河 · 中泰证券 · 中金公司
中国巨石 600176.SS 3 中国银河 · 光大证券 · 华龙证券
兖矿能源 600188.SS 3 开源证券 · 浙商证券 · 长江证券
紫金矿业 601899.SS 3 中国银河 · 招商证券 · 西部证券
南京银行 601009.SS 3 华泰证券 · 太平洋 · 长江证券

Earnings-guidance surprises业绩预告

Company-guided profit direction. A real ~3-month post-announcement drift has been measured (right sign) — tracked, never scored here.公司预告的利润方向。已测得真实的约3个月公告后漂移(符号正确)——此处跟踪,不评分。

▲ Positive▲ 正面
002010.SZ Sharp rise预增 +256…+362%
000959.SZ Sharp rise预增 +95…+125%
003017.SZ Sharp rise预增 +51…+73%
600983.SS Sharp rise预增 +150…+150%
▼ Negative▼ 负面
688386.SS Sharp fall预减 -55…-45%
688106.SS Sharp fall预减 -87…-84%
603086.SS Sharp fall预减 -77…-74%
688597.SS First loss首亏 -300…-281%
07

China Signal Lab中国信号实验室

How we grade every signal — honestly我们如何诚实地为每个信号分级

The ledger behind this desk. Every China signal is placed on an honest tier — scored (it earns weight in the allocator), confirmer, display-only, still on trial, or killed. Nothing gets promoted to sizing until it has earned it on forward returns.这张台面背后的账本。每个中国信号都被放到一个诚实的层级——已评分(在配置中获得权重)、确认器、仅展示、仍在试用、或已淘汰。任何信号在用前瞻收益证明自己之前,都不会被提升为仓位依据。

Scored已评分 3

Credit impulse (TSF)信用脉冲(社融) china_masterminds REGIME 0.45
12m-sum TSF YoY 6m-change; the canonical China leading indicator.社融12个月滚动同比的6个月变化;中国经典领先指标。
Realized-vol regime (CSI 300)已实现波动率区制(沪深300) china_masterminds REGIME 0.35
21d realized vol vs its 5y percentile (Moreira-Muir vol-managed de-risk).21日已实现波动率相对5年分位(Moreira-Muir波动管理降险)。
Margin euphoria融资亢奋 china_masterminds REGIME 0.20
Whole-market financing as % of float, 5y percentile — euphoria de-risk.全市场融资占流通市值比的5年分位——亢奋降险。

Confirmer确认器 2

Mean-reversion (3mo within-sector)均值回归(3月行业内) china_reversal screener
Deep within-sector dips; the one A-share factor that survived Phase-0.行业内深度回调;唯一通过Phase-0的A股因子。
Low-vol defensive sleeve低波防御组 china_lowvol screener
Lowest trailing-vol names; the low-vol anomaly holds on A-shares.最低波动名单;低波异象在A股成立。

Display展示 10

Stock-Connect southbound flow南向资金流 china.html internals
Mainland→HK net flow z-score; context, failed incremental Phase-0.内地→港净流入z值;背景,增量Phase-0未通过。
A/H premiumA/H溢价 china.html internals
Cross-market risk-appetite gauge; mean-reverting, not a timer.跨市场风险偏好计;均值回归,非择时。
Limit-up/down breadth涨跌停宽度 china.html internals
Best high-frequency A-share speculation thermometer (short retention).最佳高频A股投机温度计(保留期短)。
ETF share creationsETF份额变化 china.html internals
Broad/sector ETF creations — a national-team tell, not separable.宽基/行业ETF申购——国家队迹象,不可分离。
Sell-side consensus卖方一致预期 china_altdata convergence
Coverage + buy/hold/sell; near-universally 'buy' in China — weak signal.覆盖度+买入/中性/卖出;中国近乎全『买入』——弱信号。
Own-history valuation band自身估值分位 china_altdata convergence
PE/PB/PS vs own 5y band; A-share cross-sec value Sharpe is negative.PE/PB/PS相对自身5年带;A股横截面价值夏普为负。
Per-name financing trend个股融资趋势 china_altdata convergence
20d financing-balance change — leverage/accumulation backdrop.20日融资余额变化——杠杆/吸筹背景。
Broker monthly gold-stock picks (券商金股, Tushare)券商金股 tushare_broker → china_altdata desk panel
Count of distinct brokers picking a name this month; discrete conviction, not the ~97%-buy ratings.当月推荐该股的券商家数;离散信心,区别于近97%『买入』评级。
Corporate buybacks (回购)回购 china_discovery confirmer
In-progress buyback %-of-shares + RMB; insider conviction + valuation floor.在实施回购占比与金额;管理层信心+估值底。
Multi-leg fragility (k-of-5)多腿脆弱性 china_crowding flag
Margin+pledge+limit-up+attention+valuation conjunction; contrarian risk, not scored.两融+质押+涨停+关注度+估值的合取;逆向风险,不评分。

Pending待验 17

Per-ticker alt-data convergence个股另类数据共振 china_altdata.by_ticker
Rank-aggregate of analyst+value+margin; display join, Phase-0 candidate.分析师+估值+融资的排名聚合;展示性合并,Phase-0候选。
Southbound per-name accumulation南向个股吸筹 hk_southbound/holdings (accruing)
Per-stock mainland ownership momentum; history accruing for validation.个股内地持股动量;正在累计历史以待验证。
Funding curve (FR/FDR + SHIBOR)资金利率曲线 china_funding (accruing)
FR/FDR repo fixings plus full-tenor SHIBOR depth; liquidity-temperature context, collected + accruing, not scored.FR/FDR回购定盘利率与全期限SHIBOR深度历史;资金面温度背景,已采集并累计,尚未评分。
Convertible-bond breadth & premium转债宽度与溢价 china_cb (accruing)
Full-universe price/premium breadth plus the jisilu equal-weight index; risk-appetite context, collected + accruing, not scored.全市场转债价格/溢价宽度与集思录等权指数;风险偏好背景,已采集并累计,尚未评分。
New-fund issuance (新发基金)新发基金 china_fund_issuance (accruing)
Weekly established-fund shares with an equity/bond split; retail-appetite context, collected + accruing, not scored.每周新成立基金份额及股/债拆分;散户风险偏好背景,已采集并累计,尚未评分。
Main-force money flow (主力资金, Tushare)主力资金流向 china_altdata convergence (0.18)
超大单+大单 net inflow — the push2 replacement (IP-reliable); scored only after validation.超大单+大单净流入——push2替代(全球IP可达);验证通过后方可评分。
Holder cost-basis & win-rate (筹码, Tushare)筹码胜率 tushare_chips (cyq_perf) — collected, surface/score after Phase-0
% of float in profit + weighted holding cost; collected + accruing, not yet surfaced or scored.获利盘占比+加权持仓成本;已采集并累计,尚未展示或评分。
Earnings-guidance surprise (业绩预告, Tushare)业绩预告 tushare_forecast → altdata panel + china_validation `guidance`
业绩预告 direction × guided Δ%; surfaced as a desk panel + validated (forward IC finds a real ~3mo drift, accruing toward proven). Sell-side report_rc revision is separate, still throttle-limited.业绩预告方向×预告变动%;已作为台面板展示并验证(前瞻IC发现真实约3个月漂移,正向累积中)。卖方report_rc修正受频次限制,另行处理。
Crowd attention & inst-participation (千股千评)千股千评 china_altdata convergence (0.15)
Eastmoney 关注指数 + 机构参与度 + 主力成本; retail-vs-institutional crowding.关注指数+机构参与度+主力成本;散户与机构的拥挤度。
Dragon-Tiger institutional seats (龙虎榜)龙虎榜机构席位 china_altdata convergence (0.10) + discovery
Institutional-seat net buy on the abnormal-move board — leading smart money.龙虎榜机构席位净买入——领先主力资金。
Block-trade premium/discount (大宗交易)大宗交易折溢价 china_altdata convergence (0.05) + discovery
Off-market block premium=conviction handoff / discount=institutional unload.大宗溢价=承接 / 折价=机构出货。
Attention/LHB velocity关注度/龙虎榜动量 china_velocity (accruing)
Momentum of attention + Dragon-Tiger appearances; accruing forward track record.关注度与龙虎榜上榜的动量;正在累计前瞻战绩。
Off-desk leading accumulation未上桌的领先吸筹 china_discovery
Names with ≥2 leading legs (LHB-inst/block/buyback/attention) before price confirms.在价格确认前出现≥2个领先腿(机构席位/大宗/回购/关注度)的个股。
Investor Q&A — SZSE 互动易互动易问答 china_irm.qa + velocity
Per-name investor questions/answers + market-wide question velocity; collected + accruing, not scored.深市投资者互动问答与全市场提问速度;已采集并累计,尚未评分。
Investor Q&A — SSE e互动上证e互动问答 china_einteraction.qa
The Shanghai half of the same interaction plane, keyed on the venue's own uid map; collected + accruing, not scored.沪市同一互动平面,按平台uid映射逐只采集问答;已采集并累计,尚未评分。
Sell-side rating/TP revision stream券商评级调整流 china_reports.tape + daily aggregates
Per-report rating/target-price/EPS change against the same house's prior call, plus daily class counts; collected + accruing, not scored.逐篇研报的评级、目标价与EPS较同一机构上次的变化,以及每日各类调整家数;已采集并累计,尚未评分。
Shareholder count (retail concentration)股东户数 china_holder_counts.snapshot
Registered holder count per name and its change vs the prior period — the A-share concentration read with no US analogue; collected + accruing, not scored.个股股东户数及其较上期的变化——A股特有的筹码集中度读数;已采集并累计,尚未评分。

Killed已淘汰 2

Cross-sectional momentum横截面动量
A-share IC negative; only short-term reversal survives.A股IC为负;仅短期反转有效。
Cross-sectional value横截面价值
A-share value Sharpe -0.46 — display-only, never scored.A股价值夏普-0.46——仅展示,绝不评分。

Context only — not a signal, score or trade. Convergence and every panel here reuse already-collected free feeds as a display join; none of it feeds any allocation. The scored legs are those already earned inside the China masterminds; the rest are display, confirmer, on-trial or killed as the Signal Lab shows. Point-in-time; may change nightly.仅供参考,非信号、评分或交易。共振与本页每个面板都复用已采集的免费数据作展示性合并;无一进入任何配置。已评分项为中国主脑中已获得权重者;其余为展示、确认器、试用或已淘汰,详见信号实验室。数据为特定时点,可能每夜变动。