International macro command center国际宏观指挥中心

🇪🇺Euro Area Macro欧元区宏观

Euro area aggregate (current EA21 composition), not the European Union. STOXX Europe 600 is broader market context only.欧元区当前21国总量（EA21），并非欧盟整体。STOXX Europe 600仅作更广泛市场背景。

Defensive防御
Data through数据截至 2026-09-11 ·Built生成 2026-09-15 00:06 UTC
Defensive posture防御姿态
Protect against fragmentation: watch sovereign spreads, energy and bank credit.防范碎片化：关注主权利差、能源与银行信贷。

50 + growth impulse − inflation pressure − recession stress + liquidity + current calibrated-risk state. Descriptive, not a forecast.50 + 增长脉冲 − 通胀压力 − 衰退压力 + 流动性 + 当前校准风险状态。仅作描述，不是预测。

Regime周期
Stagflation
Liquidity流动性
Contracting
Recession stress衰退压力
6.00/100
Source state数据状态
Stale inputs输入陈旧

Pullback risk回撤风险

Odds measured on this market's own history — windows, not certainties, re-drawn nightly.概率基于本市场自身历史测算 — 是概率窗口而非定论，每晚重算。

📡
Risk Radar风险雷达 WATCH观察 · 60/100 ?Pullback-risk gauge. Use high readings to trim risk, not to pick stocks.回撤风险仪表。高读数用于降风险，不用于选股。
US rate shock美债利率冲击
Advisory — sizes risk; does not override the measured tape.提示性信号——仅调整仓位，不覆盖实测盘面。
×0.97gross建议仓位
Pullback odds回撤概率 ≥5% drop · measured vs normal≥5% · 实测对比常态
20%within 21 days21 日内
1.0× vs normal对比常态 20%
4%
5d5日
10%
10d10日
20%
21d21日
normal常态
US rate shock美债利率冲击 89 Parabolic extension / exhaustion抛物线伸展／透支 49 Euro depreciation / outflows欧元贬值／资金外流 38
Leading领先信号US 2-year yield jump美债2年利率跳升 97th第97百分位 ✓ · US 10-year yield jump美债10年利率跳升 91st第91百分位 ✓
Do应对A risk is building — stay normal, just watch it.风险在积累 — 保持正常，留意即可。
🧾 Track record往绩13 graded已评分 · not yet moving the verdict尚未参与定调 ?Past-year hit rate: too few graded alerts yet (daily readings — consecutive days overlap) | Watch/caution: on 0 of 12 watch/caution days a drop followed | Recovery: too few graded过去一年命中率：暂无足够评分记录（按日读数——连续日期相互重叠） | 观察/谨慎：12 个观察/谨慎日中有 0 天先于下跌 | 修复信号：暂无足够评分

Command cards指挥卡片

Open any card for evidence, definitions and provenance.打开任一卡片查看证据、定义与来源。

60-session decision path60交易日决策路径

Same descriptive scoring rule through history; the current risk-state adjustment is excluded from prior points.历史沿用同一描述性规则；过往点位不含当前风险状态调整。

2026-06-22range区间 25–562026-09-11

Local macro lenses本地宏观视角

Country-specific questions, not generic labels with the flag changed.国家专属问题，而非仅替换国旗的通用标签。

ECB transmission欧洲央行传导

The rate path matters only if financing conditions follow.只有融资条件跟随，利率路径才有意义。

2.25%
European Central Bank Data Portal

HICP core/services核心/服务HICP

Tests whether disinflation is broad enough for durable easing.检验通胀回落是否足够广泛以支持持续宽松。

2.93% y/y
Eurostat

Bank lending & credit银行贷款与信贷

The euro area’s dominant private-sector transmission channel.欧元区私人部门的主要传导渠道。

Awaiting verified official adapter
European Central Bank Data Portal

Sovereign spreads主权利差

Fragmentation risk can tighten conditions unevenly.碎片化风险可导致各国金融条件不均衡收紧。

Awaiting verified official adapter
European Central Bank Data Portal

Energy sensitivity能源敏感度

Separates imported cost shocks from domestic inflation.区分输入性成本冲击与国内通胀。

Awaiting verified official adapter
Eurostat

External balance外部平衡

Tracks competitiveness and imported-energy drag.追踪竞争力与能源进口拖累。

Awaiting verified official adapter
European Central Bank Data Portal

Verified policy calendar已核实政策日历

Past dates show a released state; the dashboard does not invent the decision outcome.过去日期显示已发布状态；看板不虚构决议结果。

2026-07-23

European Central Bank Governing Council欧洲央行管理委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-09-10

European Central Bank Governing Council欧洲央行管理委员会

Decision date passed — verify the official release决议日期已过——请核对官方发布 · official calendar官方日历

Released
2026-10-29

European Central Bank Governing Council欧洲央行管理委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming
2026-12-17

European Central Bank Governing Council欧洲央行管理委员会

Scheduled — no outcome yet已排期——尚无结果 · official calendar官方日历

Upcoming

Source health & data contract数据健康与数据契约

Official where practical; every fallback and gap remains visible.尽可能采用官方源；每项备用源与缺口均保持可见。

Provider提供方Role用途Cadence频率Access访问Status状态
European Central Bank Data PortalPolicy, rates, money, credit, bank lending and external balanceDaily / monthly / quarterlyKeyless SDMX APIauthoritative target / active where mapped
EurostatEuro-area HICP, GDP, labour, industry and tradeTwice-daily API refresh; release dependentKeyless Statistics and SDMX APIsauthoritative target / active where mapped
European CommissionBusiness surveys and fiscal contextMonthly / quarterlyOfficial downloadsauthoritative target / active where mapped
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (official-source republisher)Operational fallback for OECD, Eurostat and central-bank seriesSource dependentKeyless CSVactive fallback
Known limitation:已知限制： The official unemployment adapter uses current EA21 composition. Legacy EA19/EA20 fallback series remain labelled in provenance until their current-composition official adapters are verified. Broader-Europe equity indexes never substitute for euro-area macro data.官方失业率适配器采用当前EA21口径。旧EA19/EA20备用序列在当前口径官方适配器验证完成前会在来源中明确标注；更广泛欧洲股票指数绝不替代欧元区宏观数据。

Where next下一站

All five dashboards share this contract and interaction model.五个看板共享此数据契约与交互模型。

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