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DOWNTREND下跌趋势

AVOID回避 Downtrend — stand aside until a new cycle low forms and confirms.下跌趋势——观望，直至新的周期低点形成并确认。

⏱ DOWNTREND signal triggered 19 trading days ago (~2026-10-02), switching from NEARING A LOW. Signal strength: strong (score -80/100).⏱ 下跌趋势信号于 19 个交易日前触发（约 2026-10-02），自接近低点切换而来。信号强度：强（评分 -80/100）。

📅 Daily cycle: day 31 of a typical 23–44 trading days日线周期：第 31 天，典型周期为 23–44 个交易日 — inside the typical low-timing window — a dip is more likely from here, though the trend can keep running处于典型的低点时间窗口内——从此处回调概率更高，但趋势仍可能延续

🗓 Weekly (investor) cycle: week 18 of a typical 13–25 weeks周线（投资者）周期：第 18 周，典型周期为 13–25 周 — late — the bigger cycle is getting old晚期——更大的周期已趋于老化

The last cycle peaked mid-way — a neutral, balanced structure.上一周期在中段见顶——结构中性、均衡。

full reasoning完整推理

Failed cycle — price broke below the low that started this cycle, which historically means the larger trend is rolling over (~80% of cases).失败周期——价格跌破了启动本周期的低点，历史上这通常意味着更大的趋势正在掉头向下（约 80% 的情形）。 Next:下一步： Stand aside until a new daily cycle low forms and confirms.观望，直至新的日线周期低点形成并确认。

Momentum across timeframes跨周期动量

Chart — sector basket图表 — 板块篮子

Equal-weight basket index (rebased) · 50/200-day moving averages · drawn from our stored EOD prices (the free TradingView widget gates HKEX data behind a login)等权篮子指数（再基准化）· 50/200 日均线 · 由我方存储的日线数据绘制（免费版 TradingView 组件需登录才能查看港股数据）

Key constituents — each on its own cycle主要成分股 — 各自的周期 ?Representative large-caps in this sector — this sector's curated large-caps (not a float-cap index). Each gets the same cycle/ladder treatment. Click a name for the full single-stock analysis.本板块中具代表性的大盘股 — 本板块精选的大盘股（并非按自由流通市值编制的指数）。每只都享有相同的周期／阶梯分析。点击名称查看完整个股分析。

Tencent 0700.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 10d ago10天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 28/~44 天

Alibaba 9988.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 8d ago8天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 68/~44 天

Meituan 3690.HK UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK ⏱ today今日 daily cycle day日线周期第 15/~44 天

JD.com 9618.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 6d ago6天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 18/~44 天

Xiaomi 1810.HK BOTTOMING筑底中 HALF SIZE半仓 ⏱ today今日 daily cycle day日线周期第 15/~44 天

Baidu 9888.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 16d ago16天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 47/~44 天

Kuaishou 1024.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 13d ago13天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 30/~44 天

Lenovo 0992.HK NEARING A LOW接近低点 WATCH观察 ⏱ today今日 daily cycle day日线周期第 82/~44 天

SMIC 0981.HK DOWNTREND下跌趋势 AVOID回避 ⏱ 15d ago15天前 daily cycle day日线周期第 31/~44 天

Alibaba Health 0241.HK UNCONFIRMED TURN未确认转向 UNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISKUNCONFIRMED — HIGH RISK ⏱ today今日 daily cycle day日线周期第 18/~44 天