IPO Radar雷达
New listings · is the window open, should you chase, what to avoid新股 · 窗口是否开启、是否该追、应规避什么
The issuance window is shut — but new listings bought in the market have lagged the S&P, and a big lock-up unlocks this week. Stand aside.新股发行窗口关闭 —— 但在二级市场买入的新股跑输了标普，且本周有大额解禁。靠边站。
Stand aside靠边站 As of截至 2026-09-14 Context, not a buy signal背景，而非买入信号
What changed最新变化 Window flipped OPEN → SHUT窗口切换 开启 → 关闭

What to avoid right now当前应规避

The honest edge in IPOs is discipline about what NOT to buy. Assembled from the calendar — display-only, never a trade.新股中诚实的优势在于「不买什么」的纪律。取自日历 —— 仅供展示，非交易。
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Names near un-lock — don't add into the cliff临近解禁 —— 勿加仓
JAN unlocks Sep 16 (~$840M); 18 more within 45 days.JAN 于9月16日解禁（约$840M）；45 天内还有 18 只。
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Don't chase new-issue baskets别追新股篮子
Recent-IPO ETF returned about −3%/yr vs the S&P +13%/yr over five years.近五年新股ETF年化约 −3%，而标普约 +13%。
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Frothy issuance — stand aside on hot deals发行泡沫 —— 热门票靠边站
About half of recent deals are blank-check SPACs (52%); ~24% of filed deals were pulled.近期约一半新股为空白支票SPAC（52%）；约 24% 的已披露交易被撤回。
Issuance window发行窗口?Coincident risk-appetite read across up to six market legs (macro de-risk, VIX, HY-vs-IG credit, small-caps, high-beta, the IPO ETF trend). It describes whether issuers can sell deals NOW — it does not forecast, and it is never scored.跨最多六个市场分项的同步风险偏好读数（宏观降险、VIX、高收益对投资级信用、小盘、高贝塔、新股ETF趋势）。描述当前发行环境，并不预测，且从不计分。
Shut关闭
Risk-off — the window for new deals is shut.风险规避 —— 新交易窗口关闭。
2/6 legs supportive分项偏好
Stand aside靠边站 Drivers →驱动 →
Reality check现实检验?“Buy recent IPOs in the open market” = the Renaissance IPO ETF vs the S&P, 5-year annualised total return. The day-1 pop accrues to offer-price allocation, which retail cannot get — so the honest anchor is how the aftermarket basket actually did.“在二级市场买近期新股” = 复兴新股ETF对比标普，5年年化总回报。首日爆涨归于发行价配售（散户拿不到）—— 故诚实的锚点是二级市场篮子的真实表现。
Trails跑输
“Own recent IPOs” has lagged simply owning the S&P.“持有近期新股”跑输了单纯持有标普。
-5.1%
IPO ETF 5y/yr新股ETF 5年/年
+12.8%
S&P 5y/yr标普 5年/年
-17.9
gap pp/yr差距 个百分点/年
Don't chase the basket别追新股篮子 Rotation →轮动 →
Issuance froth发行热度?How busy and how speculative the new-issue tape is: deals priced in 90 days, the blank-check (SPAC) share, and the share of filed deals later pulled. A high SPAC share + a busy pace = a frothy, promotional tape to stand aside from.新股发行的繁忙度与投机度：90天定价交易数、空白支票（SPAC）占比、以及已披露后撤回的比例。高SPAC占比＋繁忙节奏＝泡沫化、炒作型盘面，应靠边站。
Busy繁忙
52% blank-check share · frothy above the 40% tick空白支票占比 · 超过40%刻度为泡沫
Stand aside on hot deals热门新股靠边站 71 priced · 90d定价 · 90天
Is the window open for new bond deals?新债发行窗口开着吗？ the debt side of the same question同一问题的债券面
Whether borrowers can sell new bonds right now, read from the market that prices them. Two lanes: high-yield (riskier borrowers) and investment-grade (safer borrowers). Context, never a buy signal, never scored.当前借款人能否顺利发行新债，从为其定价的市场读出。分两条：高收益（较高风险发行人）与投资级（较稳健发行人）。仅为背景，非买入信号，且从不计分。
High-yield borrowers高收益发行人?FRED series behind this segment's spread; percentile over the trailing 252 observations, drift over the trailing 21. Coincident read; never scored.该分段利差对应的FRED序列；百分位基于近252个观测值，变动基于近21个观测值。同期读数；从不计分。
Half open半开
Deals are getting done, but not on easy terms.交易仍能完成，但条件并不宽松。
tight end of the past year近一年最窄wide end最宽
  • Spreads vs their past year利差与近一年区间对比 2026-09-10 tighter than four in five days of the past year比近一年五分之四的交易日更窄
  • Recent move in spreads利差近期变动 2026-09-10 roughly flat over the past month过去一个月基本持平
  • Rates volatility (both lanes)利率波动（两条线共用） 2026-09-14 higher than three in four days of the past year高于近一年四分之三的交易日
What would change this read什么会改变这个读数 Spreads tightening further over the next month would flip this to open.未来一个月利差进一步收窄，读数会翻为开着。
Watch — don't chase观望，别追 3/3 inputs read项输入可读
Investment-grade borrowers投资级发行人?FRED series behind this segment's spread; percentile over the trailing 252 observations, drift over the trailing 21. Coincident read; never scored.该分段利差对应的FRED序列；百分位基于近252个观测值，变动基于近21个观测值。同期读数；从不计分。
Half open半开
Deals are getting done, but not on easy terms.交易仍能完成，但条件并不宽松。
tight end of the past year近一年最窄wide end最宽
  • Spreads vs their past year利差与近一年区间对比 2026-09-10 in the middle of the past year's range处于近一年区间的中段
  • Recent move in spreads利差近期变动 2026-09-10 roughly flat over the past month过去一个月基本持平
  • Rates volatility (both lanes)利率波动（两条线共用） 2026-09-14 higher than three in four days of the past year高于近一年四分之三的交易日
What would change this read什么会改变这个读数 Spreads moving into the wider two-thirds of the past year would flip this to shut.利差升入近一年较宽的三分之二区间，读数会翻为关着。
Watch — don't chase观望，别追 3/3 inputs read项输入可读
No upcoming-deal calendar available — we have no feed of announced or planned bond deals, so this reads the conditions issuers face, not a list of deals. Research context only: no issuer is named, nothing here is scored, and nothing here feeds any allocation.暂无新债发行日历 —— 我们没有已公告或计划发行的数据源，因此这里读取的是发行人面对的市场环境，而非交易清单。仅供研究参考：不点名任何发行人，不计分，也不进入任何配置。
Lock-up cliff解禁悬崖 the one thing worth watching唯一值得关注的一环
~180 days after listing, insider / VC / PE shares un-lock into a thin float — a documented one-sided supply push. The date is free and deterministic. It is a “don’t add into the cliff” flag, not a short.上市约180天后，内部人／风投／私募股份解禁冲击稀薄流通盘 —— 有据可查的单边供给压力。日期免费且确定。这是“临近解禁勿加仓”的提示，而非做空。
Next un-lock下一解禁: JAN · 2026-09-16 · $840M (in 1d1天后)
18 approaching ≤45d临近 ≤45天 · 7 just un-locked刚解禁
TODAY今天
SHAZ · SharonAI Holdings Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-08-17 · $125M
lock-up禁售 180d
AIDX · 20/20 Biolabs, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-08-18 · —
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
ROC · Rank One Computing Corp
un-locks解禁 2026-08-19 · $24M
lock-up禁售 180d
MMED · MiniMed Group, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-09-02 · $560M
lock-up禁售 180d
CAST · Freecast, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-09-06 · —
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
PAYP · PayPay Corp
un-locks解禁 2026-09-08 · $880M
lock-up禁售 180d
SWMR · Swarmer, Inc
un-locks解禁 2026-09-13 · $15M
lock-up禁售 180d
JAN · Janus Living, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-09-16 · $840M
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
HMH · HMH Holding Inc
un-locks解禁 2026-09-28 · $210M
lock-up禁售 180d
TMCR · Metals Royalty Co Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-05 · —
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
ARXS · Arxis, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-13 · $1.1B
lock-up禁售 180d
MAIR · Madison Air Solutions Corp
un-locks解禁 2026-10-13 · $2.2B
lock-up禁售 180d
ALMR · Alamar Biosciences, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-14 · $191M
lock-up禁售 180d
KLRA · Kailera Therapeutics, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-14 · $625M
lock-up禁售 180d
AVEX · AEVEX Corp.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-14 · $320M
lock-up禁售 180d
DETX · LIBERTY DEFENSE HOLDINGS, LTD.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-19 · $17M
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
YSWY · Yesway, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-19 · $280M
lock-up禁售 180d (est估)
NHP · National Healthcare Properties, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-19 · $462M
lock-up禁售 180d
LABT · Lakewood-Amedex Biotherapeutics Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-20 · —
lock-up禁售 180d
ELMT · Elmet Group Co.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-20 · $120M
lock-up禁售 180d
XE · X-Energy, Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-21 · $1.0B
lock-up禁售 180d
PS · PERSHING SQUARE INC.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-26 · $2.0B
lock-up禁售 180d
SBMT · SILVER BOW MINING CORP.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-27 · $60M
lock-up禁售 180d
AVLN · Avalyn Pharma Inc.
un-locks解禁 2026-10-27 · $300M
lock-up禁售 180d
30d ago30天前+45d+45天+120d+120天
just un-locked (supply live)刚解禁（供给中） approaching (≤45d)临近（≤45天） still locked仍锁定 dot size = deal size点大小＝交易规模
Don’t add into the cliff. This is a supply-date calendar, not a forecast — history shows no reliable tradeable edge here.临近解禁勿加仓。这是供给日历，而非预测 —— 历史上此处没有可靠、可交易的优势。?Field & Hanka document a small one-sided drift (~−1.5%, ~−3% for VC-backed names) with ~+40% volume around unlock. Our own event study of recent unlocks finds no measurable, tradeable edge on a small, survivorship-biased sample. Lock-up length is prospectus-confirmed where available, else the 180-day market standard.Field & Hanka 记录到解禁前后约 −1.5%（风投支持约 −3%）的小幅单边漂移，成交量约 +40%。我们对近期解禁的事件研究在小样本（含幸存者偏差）上未发现可测量、可交易的优势。禁售期长度在可得时取自招股书，否则取 180 天市场标准。
The aftermarket trade二级市场交易 IPO & IPOX vs the S&P · 5y, rebased新股与IPOX对比标普 · 5年，归一
Basket篮子1Y3Y5Y
Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO)-0.5%+16.2%-5.1%
First Trust IPOX-100 (FPX)+11.7%+26.8%+7.3%
S&P 500 (SPY)+16.7%+20.5%+12.8%
The day-1 pop accrues to offer-price allocation, not to open-market buyers. A mechanical “own recent IPOs” basket (Renaissance IPO ETF) has trailed the S&P over five years; the quality-tilted IPOX (FPX) does better, but that is a large-cap / quality tilt, not underpricing capture.首日爆涨归于发行价配售，而非公开市场买家。机械式“持有近期新股”篮子（复兴新股ETF）五年跑输标普；偏质量的 IPOX（FPX）表现较好，但那是大盘/质量倾斜，并非对低定价的捕获。
Expected to price soon预计即将定价 3 on the calendar在日历上
HNUC
Holtec Nuclear Corp
Expected预期2026-09-18
Range区间$15–18
Size规模$1.0B
OIG
Orion180 Insurance Group Inc.
Expected预期2026-09-18
Range区间$15–17
Size规模$391M
PTT
SIYATA PTT
Expected预期2026-09-30
Range区间—
Size规模—
The detail细节 open a shelf for the full tape展开查看完整数据
What the window read is made of窗口读数的构成2/6 supportive偏好▶
Risk-appetite leg风险偏好分项Reading读数State状态
Macro risk backdrop宏观风险背景
validated de-risk score (reused, not new)复用已验证的降险评分（非新建）
 13/100 Supportive偏好
Volatility (VIX)波动率（VIX）
low vol = receptive tape低波动 = 接纳新股的盘面
 17.1 Neutral中性
Credit appetite (HY vs IG)信用偏好（高收益 vs 投资级）
high-yield leading = risk-on credit高收益领先 = 信用风险偏好
 +3.0% Supportive偏好
Small-cap leadership (IWM vs SPY)小盘领先（IWM vs SPY）
small-caps leading = appetite for risk/new names小盘领先 = 对风险/新名的偏好
 -4.2% Cautious谨慎
Speculative appetite (high-beta vs low-vol)投机偏好（高贝塔 vs 低波）
high-beta leading = speculative bid高贝塔领先 = 投机性买盘
 -3.4% Cautious谨慎
IPO basket trend (IPO vs SPY)新股篮子趋势（IPO vs SPY）
recent-IPO ETF leading = aftermarket demand新股ETF领先 = 二级市场需求
 -9.7% Cautious谨慎
Legs reuse existing market reads — the macro de-risk score (from the main dashboard, not rebuilt here), VIX, HY-vs-IG credit, small-cap & high-beta leadership, the IPO-ETF trend. A description of risk appetite, not a forecast — and nothing here feeds any score or allocation.各分项复用既有市场读数 —— 宏观降险评分（取自主看板，非在此新建）、VIX、高收益对投资级信用、小盘与高贝塔领先、新股ETF趋势。是对风险偏好的描述而非预测 —— 且此处任何内容都不进入任何评分或仓位。
Recently priced近期定价last 120 days最近120天▶
Priced定价日Ticker代码Company公司Offer发行价Size规模
2026-09-03 · d+12 TRBG Turbogen Ltd. — —
2026-09-01 · d+14 TLACU Three Lions Acquisition Corp.SPAC $10.00 $100M
2026-08-28 · d+18 IPHXU Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. VIIISPAC $10.00 $250M
2026-08-27 · d+19 RNAQU Rainier Acquisition CorpSPAC $10.00 $75M
2026-08-26 · d+20 SCATU Southern Cross Acquisition II Corp.SPAC $10.00 $75M
2026-08-26 · d+20 JTTT JATT III Acquisition CorpSPAC $10.00 $60M
2026-08-25 · d+21 ADBT Advasa Holdings, Inc. — —
2026-08-20 · d+26 FBDT First Breach, Inc. — —
2026-08-19 · d+27 LYNX Lyntris Inc. $17.50 $298M
2026-08-18 · d+28 XTERU Karman Line Acquisition Corp.SPAC $10.00 $200M
2026-08-18 · d+28 NSAIU NorthStrive Acquisition Corp I.SPAC $10.00 $100M
2026-08-13 · d+33 TBCVU Thunder Bridge Capital Partners V, Ltd.SPAC $10.00 $261M
2026-08-12 · d+34 SNSC SunScout Holding Ltd $5.00 $16M
2026-08-12 · d+34 VOGX Vogenx, Inc. $13.00 $81M
2026-08-12 · d+34 FOIL Londian Wason New Energy Tech Inc. $22.00 $94M
2026-08-07 · d+39 TP Ticketplus Ltd. $8.00 $15M
2026-08-07 · d+39 OCLTU OceanLight Acquisition CorpSPAC $10.00 $100M
2026-08-07 · d+39 PNAQU Pinnacle Acquisition CorpSPAC $10.00 $200M
2026-08-07 · d+39 LTGO Latigo Biotherapeutics, Inc. $18.00 $346M
2026-08-07 · d+39 BLSM BlossomHill Therapeutics, Inc. $16.00 $150M
2026-08-06 · d+40 BRVE Braveheart Bio, Inc. $18.00 $382M
2026-08-05 · d+41 TCGX TCGX Acquisition Corp.SPAC $10.00 $75M
2026-08-05 · d+41 ATTO Attovia Therapeutics, Inc. $17.00 $289M
2026-08-04 · d+42 THEOU BOA Acquisition Corp. IISPAC $10.00 $125M
2026-08-04 · d+42 FJDIU ARC Group Securities Acquisition ISPAC $10.00 $105M
2026-07-31 · d+46 EWAVU East West Ave Acquisition Corp.SPAC $10.00 $100M
2026-07-31 · d+46 APMD Apnimed, Inc. $16.00 $192M
2026-07-31 · d+46 XIIIU Churchill Capital Corp XIIISPAC $10.00 $360M
2026-07-30 · d+47 REF Reformation Inc. $15.00 $211M
2026-07-30 · d+47 GYGY Game Your Game Inc. — —
“Demand vs range” (final offer price vs the marketed prospectus range) is the strongest day-1 pop predictor in the literature, but a marketed range accrues only for deals captured before they price — covers“需求对比区间”（最终发行价对比招股书营销区间）是文献中首日涨幅最强的预测因子，但营销区间仅对定价前已捕获的交易累积 —— 目前覆盖 2/30 recent deals so far, so the column is held back until coverage builds. Display-only, never scored.近期交易，故在覆盖累积前暂不显示该列。仅供展示，从不计分。
SPACs are flagged, never dropped: they price at $10, rarely pop, and distort IPO base rates. Per-name price return vs the offer is shown only where we already hold the series — most fresh IPOs are outside our coverage, so we don’t fabricate it.SPAC 被标记而非剔除：它们以 $10 定价、极少爆涨，会扭曲新股基准比率。相对发行价的个股回报仅在我们已持有序列时显示 —— 多数新上市公司不在覆盖范围内，故不会虚构。
🇭🇰Hong Kong issuance backdrop香港发行背景MIXED混合▶
Liquidity backdrop only. HK is structurally more retail-tradeable (a public-offer tranche with clawback, a published subscription multiple, a grey market) — but those deal-level demand feeds are keyless and currently blocked, so we show the liquidity that drives HK’s hot windows, not a deal signal. Never scored.仅为流动性情况。香港在结构上更适合散户参与（公开发售部分＋回拨机制、公开的超额认购倍数、暗盘）—— 但这些交易级需求数据无密钥且目前受阻，故此处展示驱动香港热窗的流动性，而非交易信号。从不计分。
Backdrop leg背景分项Reading读数State状态
Southbound flow (20d net)南向资金（20日净额）
mainland capital into HK = primary-market fuel内地资金流入香港 = 一级市场的燃料
 +27,050 HK$mn+27,050 HK$mn Supportive偏好
Subscription funding (1M HIBOR)认购融资成本（1个月 HIBOR）
cheap HK$ funding = leveraged retail subscription港元融资便宜 = 散户杠杆认购活跃
 2.89%2.89% Neutral中性
HKD peg pressure港元联系汇率压力
inflow side supports issuance资金流入一侧支撑新股发行
 weak-side (outflow)弱方（资金流出） Cautious谨慎
HK risk appetite香港风险偏好
risk-on tape welcomes new issues风险偏好升温的盘面欢迎新股
 Neutral中性 Neutral中性
Why this is context, not a prediction为何这是背景而非预测methodology方法▶

The honest thesis诚实的论点

The day-1 IPO “pop” is genuinely predictable out-of-sample (Huang–Jiang–Li–Wu; Çolak–Fu–Hasan) — its strongest input is the bookbuilding price revision, finalised the night before trading. But it is measured from the rationed offer price and the opening trade already prices it in (Ritter–Welch), so without an offer-price allocation (which retail and small funds structurally cannot get) it is NOT capturable. Held from the first close, IPOs underperform (Ritter: median 3-year return ≈ −26%). So this page never predicts pops — it reads whether the window is open and shows what buying new issues in the secondary market has actually returned.新股首日“爆涨”在样本外确实可预测（Huang–Jiang–Li–Wu；Çolak–Fu–Hasan）—— 其最强输入是簿记建档中的定价修正，在交易前夜才敲定。但它是相对被配售的发行价计量的，开盘价已将其计入（Ritter–Welch），因此没有发行价配售（散户与小型基金结构上拿不到）便无法捕获。若从首日收盘持有，新股长期跑输（Ritter：3 年中位回报约 −26%）。故本页从不预测爆涨 —— 它判断窗口是否开启，并展示在二级市场买入新股的真实回报。

US vs Hong Kong美国 vs 香港

Hong Kong is structurally more retail-tradeable — a mandatory public-offer tranche with a clawback, a published over-subscription multiple, and a grey market that trades the night before listing. But the keyless data for those deal-level demand signals is currently broken/blocked, so the HK shelf shows the liquidity backdrop (southbound flow, HIBOR, the HKD peg, HK risk appetite) rather than a deal signal.香港在结构上更适合散户参与 —— 强制公开发售部分与回拨机制、公开的超额认购倍数，以及上市前夜交易的暗盘。但这些交易级需求信号的免密钥数据目前失效/受阻，故香港栏目展示流动性情况（南向资金、HIBOR、港元联系汇率、香港风险偏好），而非交易信号。
Display-only, never scored — an avoidance + context tool, not a buy signal. Deal calendar: Nasdaq public JSON (community-sourced, not official; the predictive demand signals — over-subscription, book demand, allocation — live in paid feeds and are not here). Aftermarket: Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) & First Trust IPOX-100 (FPX) vs SPY, total-return adjusted closes. Evidence: Ritter (Univ. of Florida IPO data), Huang-Jiang-Li-Wu (SSRN 4012288), Çolak-Fu-Hasan (J. Banking & Finance 2025), Ritter-Welch (2002), Field & Hanka (2001). Not investment advice. Built仅供展示，从不计分 —— 一个规避与背景工具，而非买入信号。交易日历：纳斯达克公开 JSON（社区来源，非官方；具预测性的需求信号 —— 超额认购、簿记需求、配售 —— 存在于付费数据源，此处没有）。二级市场：复兴新股ETF (IPO) 与 First Trust IPOX-100 (FPX) 对比 SPY，总回报调整收盘价。证据：Ritter（佛罗里达大学新股数据）、Huang-Jiang-Li-Wu (SSRN 4012288)、Çolak-Fu-Hasan（《银行与金融杂志》2025）、Ritter-Welch (2002)、Field & Hanka (2001)。非投资建议。生成于 2026-09-15 00:07 UTC.