₿Bitcoin Vector

$76,623 -0.2%

Daily close日线收盘 · Sep 14, 2026

RISK-ON偏多

The long-cycle read is constructive, while short-term direction remains uncertain.长周期判断偏积极，但短期方向仍不确定。

Master read总读数+21

8 supportive项支撑 · 4 cautious项谨慎

BTC priceBTC 价格 final exposure最终仓位 regime bands状态区间

$76,623Model exposure模型仓位 · 46%Cycle watch window周期观察窗口2024-09-142026-12-10

What changed最新变化 Allocation changed to 46% BTC配置调整为 46% BTC Alert Center警报中心 →

What To Do该怎么做

one action · one sizing source一个行动 · 一个仓位来源

Current action当前行动

REDUCE TO 46% BTC减持至 46% BTC

Final allocation reduced.最终配置下调。 Change from the prior model target:较上一模型目标变化： -49.2 percentage points.个百分点。

Final BTC exposure最终 BTC 仓位

46%

Risk level风险程度8/100Low Risk低风险

0% cash现金final model最终模型 46%100% BTC

Accumulate zone累积区间$71,088–$76,623

thesis breaks below跌破则判断失效$71,088

Typical 90-day range90 天常见区间$75,857–$115,241

The action and target come from the same final model allocation. Risk levels remain supporting context.行动与目标均来自同一最终模型配置；风险读数仅作辅助参考。

Why为什么

six governing drivers六个主导因素

Trend & Momentum趋势与动量

Bullish看多

+0.42momentum动量

Cycle & Valuation周期与估值

Neutral中性

76%cycle周期

Liquidity & Flows流动性与资金流

Unavailable暂无

+1.2%stablecoin growth稳定币增长

Leverage & Derivatives杠杆与衍生品

Low低

27/100pressure压力

Network & Miners网络与矿工

Positive正向

81/100BFIBFI

Macro Backdrop宏观背景

Tailwind顺风

+6.7%global M2全球 M2

What We're Watching正在观察

conditions that could change the read可能改变判断的条件

Drawdown shape回撤形态On track按计划

A shallower sell-off would point to a less distinct cycle low.若回撤更浅，本轮周期低点可能不再清晰。

Cycle window周期窗口On track按计划

The projected timing window is being updated from the latest close.预测时间窗口会依据最新收盘持续更新。

Price structure价格结构On track按计划

The cycle read needs price structure to keep holding.周期判断需要价格结构继续保持。

Windows, not certainties. The watch window is re-drawn nightly as the evidence changes.这是观察窗口，不是确定预测。证据变化时，窗口会在每晚重新绘制。

The Complex加密市场全景

Bitcoin in context把比特币放回全市场

BTC

Bitcoin比特币

$76,623

2026-06-162026-09-14$76,623

Benchmark asset基准资产

ETH

Ethereum以太坊

$2,527

2026-06-162026-09-14$2,527

Leading BTC by +13.0% over 8 weeks近 8 周领先 BTC +13.0%

SOL

Solana索拉纳

$103

2026-06-162026-09-14$103

Leading BTC by +12.4% over 8 weeks近 8 周领先 BTC +12.4%

BTC.D

BTC shareBTC 占比

56.4%

2026-06-132026-07-2856.4%

Market leadership市场主导度

TOTAL

Crypto market加密市场

$2.26T

2026-06-132026-07-28$2,264,979,957,049

Total market value市场总市值

Study Shelf研究架

depth on demand按需查看深度

Cycle Lab周期实验室Rewind every point-in-time read回看每个历史时点的完整判断Expansion · 76%

Accumulation吸筹 Markup拉升 Recovery修复 Markdown派发下行

———

—— stage阶段 — cycle周期 — ladder阶梯 — momentum动量 — valuation估值 — stance立场 — model exposure模型仓位 —

Risk level风险程度—

Every historical frame uses the data and standing rules available on that date.每个历史画面仅使用当日可得数据与当时既定规则。

Derivatives Desk衍生品台Volatility, leverage and positioning receipts波动、杠杆与持仓明细38.9 DVOL · —%

Implied volatility隐含波动率

36.4

Gamma flipGamma 翻转位

$69,988

Distance to flip距翻转位

+9.2%

Put / call OI看跌/看涨持仓

0.56×

Max pain最大痛点

$72,000

Futures basis期货基差

+4.8%

Funding, annualized资金费率年化

—%

Open interest未平仓量

$33B

Retail long/short ratio散户账户多空比 ?

1.67×

Taker buy share主动买盘占比 ?

48.9%

ETF net flowETF 净流量

2025-09-092026-09-09

78 daily point-in-time chain snapshots accrued since 2026-06-13.自 2026-06-13 起已积累 78 个每日链上快照。 Dealer sign assumes long calls and short puts.交易商符号假设为多头看涨、空头看跌。

Positioning describes pressure, not direction. It never changes the verdict by itself.持仓数据描述压力，不直接判断方向，也不会单独改变结论。

On-chain Lab链上实验室Valuation, holders, miners and demand估值、持币者、矿工与需求BFI 81 · MVRV 0.78

MVRV

0.78

Holder behavior持币者行为

neutralneutral

Miner economics矿工经济

healthyhealthy

Coinbase demandCoinbase 需求

neutralneutral

Momentum动量

2025-09-142026-09-14+0.42

Market structure市场结构

2025-09-142026-09-14+0.52

Fundamentals基本面

2025-09-142026-09-1481

Reserve Risk and VDD use backfill vintages only: Reserve Risk through 2026-06-13; VDD through 2026-06-13. No daily scrape or quota expansion is used.储备风险与 VDD 仅使用历史回填版本：储备风险截至 2026-06-13；VDD 截至 2026-06-13。未使用每日抓取或扩大配额。

These are supporting receipts. The final position remains governed by the allocation engine.这些是支撑性明细。最终仓位仍由配置引擎决定。

Strategy & Track Record策略与历史表现Two rule sets, dual timing metrics and honest leverage outcomes两套规则、双口径计时指标与真实杠杆结果Sep 14, 2026

A chained cycle schedule holds BTC through the projected up-phase and moves to cash through the projected down-phase. The exact timing model remains proprietary.链式周期计划在预测上行阶段持有 BTC，并在预测下行阶段转为现金。具体计时模型保持专有。

Total return总回报

13,681×

buy & hold买入持有 168×

CAGR

121%

buy & hold买入持有 53%

Sharpe夏普

1.69

buy & hold买入持有 0.97

Max drawdown最大回撤

-62%

buy & hold买入持有 -84%

Leverage · honest outcomes杠杆 · 真实结果

Leverage杠杆	Total总计	CAGR	Max drawdown最大回撤	Outcome结果
1×	13,681×	121%	-62%	survived存续
2×	1,333,284×	224%	-95%	survived存续
3×	$0	-100%	-100%	liquidated to $0强平归零

Includes transaction costs, about 10% annual borrowing cost on the levered portion, and liquidation when position equity reaches zero.包含交易成本、杠杆部分约 10% 年借贷成本，以及仓位净值归零时的强平。

Projected cycle pivots预测周期拐点

Date日期	Pivot拐点	BTC
Jan 2015	Low低点	$178
Dec 2017	High高点	$16,690
Dec 2018	Low低点	$3,430
Nov 2021	High高点	$64,912
Nov 2022	Low低点	$15,892
Oct 2025	High高点	$123,343
Oct 2026	Low低点	projected预测

Allocation replay配置回放 · Optimal variant· 最优变体

Loading interactive chart…正在加载交互图表…

CAGR

—

Sharpe夏普

—

Max drawdown最大回撤

—

Time invested在场时间

—

Trend strategy detail趋势策略详情 →

Signal Health信号健康度Historical measurement and coverage receipts历史测量与覆盖明细2015-01-01..2026-09-12

Signal信号	Measurement band测量级别	What is checked检查内容
Risk indexRisk index	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
MomentumMomentum	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
StructureStructure	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Risk oscillatorRisk oscillator	Context onlyContext only	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
BfiBfi	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Mvrv zMvrv z	EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
NuplNupl	EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
MayerMayer	EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.4%/90d 48.5% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.4%/90d 48.5% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
PuellPuell	EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Sth cb ratioSth cb ratio	EXTREMES — low <-10%: -0.2%/90d 35.4% hit (n=321) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: -0.2%/90d 35.4% hit (n=321) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Hash ribbon capitHash ribbon capit	Context onlyContext only	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
DvolDvol	EXTREMES — low <40: +5.9%/90d 45.0% hit (n=287) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak]EXTREMES — low <40: +5.9%/90d 45.0% hit (n=287) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
VrpVrp	EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=217) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=217) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Leverage stressLeverage stress	EXTREMES — low 0-25: +13.5%/90d 62.3% hit (n=700) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +13.5%/90d 62.3% hit (n=700) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Funding zFunding z	EXTREMES — tails too thin to judgeEXTREMES — tails too thin to judge	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Oi price divergenceOi price divergence	EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=166) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=166) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Net liq rocNet liq roc	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Macro scoreMacro score	CONFIRMED已确认	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Coinbase premium EMACoinbase premium EMA	EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM]EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Ssr oscillatorSsr oscillator	Context onlyContext only	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
MpiMpi	InvertedInverted	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
ETF flow zETF flow z	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Reserve riskReserve risk	EXTREMES — low <.0015: +16.3%/90d 64.5% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <.0015: +16.3%/90d 64.5% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
ImpulseImpulse	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Cycle pctCycle pct	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Cot zCot z	EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -5.7%/90d 34.2% hit (n=665) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -5.7%/90d 34.2% hit (n=665) [TOP]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Corr SPXCorr SPX	CONFIRMED已确认	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Vdd multipleVdd multiple	EXTREMES — low <.5: +6.2%/90d 41.4% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak]EXTREMES — low <.5: +6.2%/90d 41.4% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Global m2 YOYGlobal m2 YOY	DIRECTIONAL (full only)DIRECTIONAL (full only)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Rv cone pctileRv cone pctile	EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.1%/90d 70.0% hit (n=1252) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.1%/90d 70.0% hit (n=1252) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Vov pctileVov pctile	EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 52.6% hit (n=1184) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.7% hit (n=843) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 52.6% hit (n=1184) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.7% hit (n=843) [weak]	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Stbl growth zStbl growth z	DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)	Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。
Risk level风险程度	CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown)CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown)	Whether past readings anticipated near-term dips.历史读数是否提前反映近期回撤。

New display reads can appear before they are eligible to size money.新的展示读数可先上线，但在满足条件前不得决定仓位。 Open Measurement打开测量中心 →