₿Bitcoin Vector
$77,897 -4.2%
Daily close日线收盘 · Oct 29, 20262026年10月29日 Market read市场判断 ·
RISK-OFF偏空
Defensive backdrop.整体环境偏防守。
The big picture reads risk-off. Support comes from fundamentals and miners; the drag comes from the trend and the macro backdrop. Day-to-day direction is a coin flip — watch the dip-risk read below.大方向偏空。支撑来自基本面与矿工；拖累来自趋势与宏观环境。未来几天的涨跌仍近乎抛硬币——先看下方的回撤风险读数。
Model stance模型立场 Final authority最终口径
HOLD 27% BTC持有 27% BTC
27% BTC
Model allocation — not your account. Short-term direction remains uncertain.模型仓位——并非您的账户仓位。短期方向仍不确定。
The market, in context市场全景
Price · risk · model allocation价格 · 风险 · 模型仓位
Loading synchronized chart…正在加载同步图表…
Historical strategy results are separate from the current model decision.历史策略结果与当前模型决策分开呈现。 Review strategy results查看策略结果 →
S2
Decision & levels决策与关键价位
one final target · explicit review levels一个最终目标 · 明确复核价位Current action当前行动
HOLD 27% BTC持有 27% BTC
No material allocation change.配置无显著变化。 The final target remains最终目标维持在 27% BTC.
Final BTC exposure最终 BTC 仓位
27%
Risk level风险程度22/100Low Risk低风险
0% cash现金final model最终模型 27%100% BTC
Accumulate zone累积区间$72,055–$77,897
read changes below跌破则改变判断$51,490
Typical 90-day range90 天常见区间$63,564–$100,955
The action and target come from the same final model allocation. Risk levels remain supporting context.行动与目标均来自同一最终模型配置；风险读数仅作辅助参考。
S3
Drivers驱动因素
six governing evidence axes六个主导证据维度Trend & Momentum趋势与动量
Neutral中性
+0.00momentum动量
? Cycle & Valuation周期与估值
Neutral中性
57%cycle周期
? Liquidity & Flows流动性与资金流
Unavailable暂无
-1.3%stablecoin growth稳定币增长
? Leverage & Derivatives杠杆与衍生品
Low低
18/100pressure · as of Oct 28压力 · 截至10月28日
? Network & Miners网络与矿工
Positive正向
63/100BFIBFI
? Macro Backdrop宏观背景
Headwind逆风
+6.6%global M2全球 M2
? S4
Watch conditions观察条件
what could change the read哪些变化会改变判断Drawdown shape回撤形态Watch留意
A shallower sell-off would point to a less distinct cycle low.若回撤更浅，本轮周期低点可能不再清晰。
Cycle window周期窗口On track按计划
The projected timing window is being updated from the latest close.预测时间窗口会依据最新收盘持续更新。
Price structure价格结构On track按计划
The cycle read needs price structure to keep holding.周期判断需要价格结构继续保持。
Windows, not certainties. The watch window is re-drawn nightly as the evidence changes.这是观察窗口，不是确定预测。证据变化时，窗口会在每晚重新绘制。
S5
Market context市场背景
Bitcoin across the broader complex比特币在更广泛市场中的位置BTC
Bitcoin比特币
$77,897
Benchmark asset基准资产
ETH
Ethereum以太坊
$2,253
Lagging BTC by 6.3% over 8 weeks近 8 周落后 BTC 6.3%
SOL
Solana索拉纳
$96
Lagging BTC by 4.0% over 8 weeks近 8 周落后 BTC 4.0%
BTC.D
BTC shareBTC 占比
60.0%
Market leadership市场主导度
TOTAL
Crypto market加密市场
$2.66T
Total market value市场总市值
S6
Research depth深度研究
open the evidence when you need it需要时展开证据Cycle Lab周期实验室Rewind every point-in-time read回看每个历史时点的完整判断Recovery复苏 · 57%
Accumulation吸筹 Markup拉升 Recovery修复 Markdown派发下行
———
—— stage阶段 — cycle周期 — ladder阶梯 — momentum动量 — valuation估值 — stance立场 — model exposure模型仓位 —
Risk level风险程度—
Every historical frame uses the data and standing rules available on that date.每个历史画面仅使用当日可得数据与当时既定规则。
Derivatives Desk衍生品台Volatility, leverage and positioning receipts波动、杠杆与持仓明细Coverage & sources覆盖与来源
Implied volatility隐含波动率
36.7
Gamma flipGamma 翻转位
$79,010
Distance to flip距翻转位
+1.3%
Put / call OI看跌/看涨持仓
0.60×
Max pain最大痛点
$78,000
Futures basis期货基差
+5.4%
Annualized funding cost年化资金成本
—
Settlement interval not established结算间隔尚未确定
Open interest未平仓量
—
OKX · BTC derivativesOKX · BTC 衍生品
Stale observations观测已过期
The stored window is too old for a current activity reading. Its timestamps remain inspectable.存储窗口过旧，不能作为当前成交活动读数。仍可查看其时间戳。
24h buy-side share24 小时买方占比
Venue OKX · instrument BTC derivatives · unit unavailable场所 OKX · 品种 BTC 衍生品 · 单位暂不可用
Inspect coverage & source查看覆盖与来源
- Observed label · UTC观测标签 · UTC
- 2026-10-26 04:00 UTC
- Evaluated · UTC评估时间 · UTC
- 2026-10-30 01:08 UTC
- 24h / 72h label coverage24 / 72 小时标签覆盖
- Complete完整 / Complete完整
- Contiguous observations连续观测数
- 208
- Elapsed coverage已覆盖时长
- 24 rows行 · 2026-10-25 05:00:00 – 2026-10-26 04:00:00 · 23.0 hours小时 · complete完整
Source scope: OKX BTC aggregate derivatives. Absolute units, bucket finality and provider first-publication time are not established. Complete labels are not proof of historical availability.来源范围：OKX BTC 汇总衍生品。绝对单位、时间桶最终性与提供商首次发布时间尚未确定。标签完整不证明历史上已可获得。
Earlier history contains missing or invalid observations; current coverage uses the latest contiguous segment only.早期历史存在缺失或无效观测；当前覆盖仅使用最近的连续片段。
ETF net flowETF 净流量
107 daily point-in-time chain snapshots accrued since 2026-06-13.自 2026-06-13 起已积累 107 个每日链上快照。 Dealer sign assumes long calls and short puts.交易商符号假设为多头看涨、空头看跌。
Positioning describes pressure, not direction. It never changes the verdict by itself.持仓数据描述压力，不直接判断方向，也不会单独改变结论。
On-chain Lab链上实验室Valuation, holders, miners and demand估值、持币者、矿工与需求BFI 63 · MVRV 0.87
MVRV
0.87
Holder behavior持币者行为
accumulationaccumulation
Miner economics矿工经济
capitulationcapitulation
Coinbase demandCoinbase 需求
premiumpremium
Momentum动量
Market structure市场结构
Fundamentals基本面
Reserve Risk and VDD use backfill vintages only: Reserve Risk through 2026-06-13; VDD through 2026-06-13. No daily scrape or quota expansion is used.储备风险与 VDD 仅使用历史回填版本：储备风险截至 2026-06-13；VDD 截至 2026-06-13。未使用每日抓取或扩大配额。
These are supporting receipts. The final position remains governed by the allocation engine.这些是支撑性明细。最终仓位仍由配置引擎决定。
Strategy & Track Record策略与历史表现Two rule sets, dual timing metrics and honest leverage outcomes两套规则、双口径计时指标与真实杠杆结果Oct 29, 20262026年10月29日
A chained cycle schedule holds BTC through the projected up-phase and moves to cash through the projected down-phase. The exact timing model remains proprietary.链式周期计划在预测上行阶段持有 BTC，并在预测下行阶段转为现金。具体计时模型保持专有。
Total return总回报
12,784×
buy & hold买入持有 170×
CAGR
118%
buy & hold买入持有 53%
Sharpe夏普
1.68
buy & hold买入持有 0.97
Max drawdown最大回撤
-62%
buy & hold买入持有 -84%
Leverage · honest outcomes杠杆 · 真实结果
| Leverage杠杆 | Total总计 | CAGR | Max drawdown最大回撤 | Outcome结果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1× | 12,784× | 118% | -62% | survived存续 |
| 2× | 1,151,925× | 216% | -95% | survived存续 |
| 3× | $0 | -100% | -100% | liquidated to $0强平归零 |
Includes transaction costs, about 10% annual borrowing cost on the levered portion, and liquidation when position equity reaches zero.包含交易成本、杠杆部分约 10% 年借贷成本，以及仓位净值归零时的强平。
Projected cycle pivots预测周期拐点
| Date日期 | Pivot拐点 | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2015 | Low低点 | $178 |
| Dec 2017 | High高点 | $16,690 |
| Dec 2018 | Low低点 | $3,430 |
| Nov 2021 | High高点 | $64,912 |
| Nov 2022 | Low低点 | $15,892 |
| Oct 2025 | High高点 | $123,343 |
| Oct 2026 | Low低点 | $83,275 |
A 200-day trend filter and long-term stretch throttle scale exposure, with the standing timing window applied separately.通过 200 日趋势过滤与长期偏离节流器调整仓位，并另行应用既定时间窗口。
Total return总回报
211×
buy & hold买入持有 170×
CAGR
56%
buy & hold买入持有 53%
Sharpe夏普
1.12
buy & hold买入持有 0.97
Max drawdown最大回撤
-71%
buy & hold买入持有 -84%
Rule book规则手册
- Hold only while price is above the 200-day trend.仅在价格高于 200 日趋势时持有。
- Reduce exposure as price stretches above its long-term mean.价格过度偏离长期均值时降低仓位。
- Move to cash when the trend breaks.趋势走坏时转为现金。
Honest limits真实局限
- Trend following gives back part of every high and re-enters late after lows.趋势策略会回吐部分顶部收益，也会在低点后较晚重新入场。
- Election-cycle history is context only and never changes exposure.选举周期历史仅作背景参考，绝不改变仓位。
Allocation simulation配置模拟
Full-history simulation, not live performance. Excludes trading costs. These statistics do not change with the chart viewing window.全历史模拟，并非实盘表现；未计交易成本。这些统计不会随图表查看窗口变化。
CAGR
—
Sharpe夏普
—
Max drawdown最大回撤
—
Time invested在场时间
—
The synchronized price, risk and model-allocation replay lives in Overview. Historical simulation does not predict future returns.同步的价格、风险与模型仓位回放位于概览；历史模拟不能预测未来收益。
Signal Health信号健康度Historical measurement and coverage receipts历史测量与覆盖明细2015-01-01..2026-09-26
| Signal信号 | Measurement band测量级别 | What is checked检查内容 |
|---|---|---|
| Risk indexRisk index | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| MomentumMomentum | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| StructureStructure | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Risk oscillatorRisk oscillator | Context onlyContext only | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| BfiBfi | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Mvrv zMvrv z | EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +40.5%/90d 71.9% hit (n=356) [BOTTOM]; high >3.5: +27.1%/90d 57.8% hit (n=277) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| NuplNupl | EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0: +28.0%/90d 66.5% hit (n=603) [BOTTOM]; high >.65: +25.8%/90d 58.5% hit (n=265) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| MayerMayer | EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.6%/90d 48.9% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <0.8: +11.6%/90d 48.9% hit (n=633) [weak]; high >2.4: -13.9%/90d 33.9% hit (n=62) [TOP] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| PuellPuell | EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak]EXTREMES — low <0.5: +15.8%/90d 59.5% hit (n=153) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Sth cb ratioSth cb ratio | EXTREMES — low <-10%: +1.0%/90d 37.9% hit (n=321) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: +1.0%/90d 37.9% hit (n=321) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Hash ribbon capitHash ribbon capit | Context onlyContext only | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| DvolDvol | EXTREMES — low <40: +6.1%/90d 46.0% hit (n=301) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak]EXTREMES — low <40: +6.1%/90d 46.0% hit (n=301) [weak]; high >90: +15.8%/90d 71.4% hit (n=168) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| VrpVrp | EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=231) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-5: +17.2%/90d 77.8% hit (n=231) [weak]; high >15: +7.2%/90d 53.9% hit (n=484) [TOP] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Leverage stressLeverage stress | EXTREMES — low 0-25: +13.5%/90d 62.3% hit (n=706) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +13.5%/90d 62.3% hit (n=706) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Funding zFunding z | EXTREMES — tails too thin to judgeEXTREMES — tails too thin to judge | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Oi price divergenceOi price divergence | EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=166) [weak]EXTREMES — low <-10%: +14.8%/90d 70.4% hit (n=166) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Net liq rocNet liq roc | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Macro scoreMacro score | CONFIRMED已确认 | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Coinbase premium EMACoinbase premium EMA | EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM]EXTREMES — low <-.3: +34.5%/90d 57.1% hit (n=184) [BOTTOM] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Ssr oscillatorSsr oscillator | Context onlyContext only | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| MpiMpi | InvertedInverted | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| ETF flow zETF flow z | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Reserve riskReserve risk | EXTREMES — low <.0015: +16.3%/90d 64.7% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <.0015: +16.3%/90d 64.7% hit (n=979) [weak]; high >.02: -42.5%/90d 4.2% hit (n=48) [TOP] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| ImpulseImpulse | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Cycle pctCycle pct | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Cot zCot z | EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -4.9%/90d 35.7% hit (n=665) [TOP]EXTREMES — low <-1.5: +13.2%/90d 47.8% hit (n=224) [weak]; high >1.5: -4.9%/90d 35.7% hit (n=665) [TOP] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Corr SPXCorr SPX | CONFIRMED已确认 | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Vdd multipleVdd multiple | EXTREMES — low <.5: +6.3%/90d 41.7% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak]EXTREMES — low <.5: +6.3%/90d 41.7% hit (n=779) [weak]; high >2.9: +35.2%/90d 59.1% hit (n=154) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Global m2 YOYGlobal m2 YOY | DIRECTIONAL (full only)DIRECTIONAL (full only) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Rv cone pctileRv cone pctile | EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.1%/90d 70.0% hit (n=1252) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +24.1%/90d 70.0% hit (n=1252) [weak]; high 75-100: +30.1%/90d 63.8% hit (n=831) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Vov pctileVov pctile | EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 52.6% hit (n=1193) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.7% hit (n=844) [weak]EXTREMES — low 0-25: +12.3%/90d 52.6% hit (n=1193) [weak]; high 75-100: +36.6%/90d 73.7% hit (n=844) [weak] | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Stbl growth zStbl growth z | DIRECTIONAL (one half weak)DIRECTIONAL (one half weak) | Whether past readings carried useful follow-through across history.历史读数在不同阶段是否有持续参考价值。 |
| Risk level风险程度 | CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown)CONFIRMED near-term risk gauge (7d drawdown) | Whether past readings anticipated near-term dips.历史读数是否提前反映近期回撤。 |
New display reads can appear before they are eligible to size money.新的展示读数可先上线，但在满足条件前不得决定仓位。 Open Measurement打开测量中心 →
Bitcoin Vector · built生成于 2026-10-30 01:08 UTC · data through数据截至 Oct 29, 20262026年10月29日
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© 2026 MastermindX Inc