Regime History — 2026-09-14

Three years of regimes over the S&P 500标普500 三年周期叠加 ?The S&P 500 with the regime active at each time shaded behind it — how the classifier actually behaved in real conditions.标普500 走势，并以底色标出每个时段所处的周期 — 展示分类器在真实环境中的实际表现。

Goldilocks理想增长（金发女孩） — growth ↑ inflation ↓ (best for tech/quality)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↓（最利好科技／质量股） Reflation再通胀 — growth ↑ inflation ↑ (cyclicals/energy/banks)增长 ↑ 通胀 ↑（周期股／能源／银行） Stagflation滞胀 — growth ↓ inflation ↑ (historically the dangerous one)增长 ↓ 通胀 ↑（历史上最危险的一种） Growth scare增长恐慌 — growth ↓ inflation ↓ (defensives/bonds)增长 ↓ 通胀 ↓（防御股／债券）

The two dials over time两大指标随时间变化 ?History of the growth (green) and inflation (red) scores. Zero-line crossings are where regimes change; persistent readings near ±0.5 are strong regimes; hovering near zero = mixed, choppy environment.增长（绿）与通胀（红）评分的历史走势。穿越零轴处即周期切换；持续接近 ±0.5 的读数代表强周期；徘徊在零附近 = 混杂、震荡的环境。

Regime lifespans — the base rates behind "what's next"周期存续期 — “下一步”背后的基准概率 ?Every regime period since 2007 in this classifier: how many there were, how long they typically lasted, and where they went when they ended. These are the base rates the front page's odds come from.本分类器自 2007 年以来的每一个周期时段：共出现多少次、通常持续多久，以及结束后转向何处。首页的概率即来自这些基准概率。

regime周期	periods次数	median length (days)存续中位数（天）	most common next最常见的下一周期
Goldilocks理想增长	127	29	Reflation 61%, Growth scare 31%再通胀 61%、增长恐慌 31%
Reflation再通胀	151	31	Goldilocks 47%, Stagflation 34%理想增长 47%、滞胀 34%
Stagflation滞胀	72	16	Reflation 59%, Growth scare 31%再通胀 59%、增长恐慌 31%
Growth scare增长恐慌	91	23	Goldilocks 53%, Reflation 34%理想增长 53%、再通胀 34%

Regime history & charts周期历史与图表