Agri 310726 Agri Bites report 31Jul26 1

AGRI BITES Still on top. 31 July 2026

CONTENTS AND AUTHOR Summary 3 Possible impacts of El Niño 4 Updated impacts of war in Iran 5 Dairy 6 Beef 7 US investigation into NZ lamb exports 8 Sheep meat 9 Horticulture 10 Forestry 11 Indicators of regional performance 12 Forecasts 13

Paul Clark, Industry Economist |

Westpac New Zealand Economics 2

SUMMARY Commodity prices – World and NZ dollar denominated Index 2026 Q1 = 100 Index 2026 Q1 = 100 Despite uncertainties, agricultural export prices to remain elevated. New Zealand prices • The twist and turns associated with the conflict in the Middle East is increasing 110 World prices 110 volatility in energy and related prices. At the current point in time supply is 100 100 uninterrupted but prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels. If this 90 90 continues, this will place upward pressure on farm input costs, potentially 80 Westpac forecasts 80 eroding some of the gains from still-elevated commodity prices. 70 70 60 60 • Our forecast for the 2026/27 farmgate milk price remains at $9.50/kg, noting 50 50 that the range of uncertainty is particularly wide at this stage of the season. 40 Sources: ANZ, Westpac 40 Global milk production remains ample but is slowing from its highs.

• Meanwhile, global beef and lamb prices are expected to remain well supported over the coming year, reflecting strong demand and constrained supply. Beef Commodity prices by category prices are being underpinned by lower production in the US and Brazil, while Index 2026 Q1 = 100 Index 2026 Q1 = 100 lamb prices face some headwinds from rising Australian supply and slower 130 130

demand growth in Europe, the US, and China. • Meanwhile, strong demand for premium kiwifruit and apple varieties is set to 100 100

keep prices and grower returns at elevated levels, despite higher input costs, 90 90

soft market conditions in China and aforementioned geopolitical headwinds. 80 Westpac 80 70 forecasts 70 • Forestry prices should improve moderately, supported by tighter supply and 60 Dairy 60

recovering demand, but China’s still weak property market will cap upside. 50 Horticulture Forestry 50 40 40 Sources: ANZ, Westpac Meat, skins, wool

Westpac New Zealand Economics 3