Agriculture Analyst Higher Barriers to Trade, Lower Barriers to Shocks Hormuz, Black Sea and a Super El Niño

Commodities Research 7 September 2026 | 3:37PM BST

Higher Barriers to Trade, Lower Barriers to Shocks: Hormuz, Black Sea and a Super El Niño

n Agriculture markets entered 2026 with relatively comfortable inventories, but we Lina Thomas | see the upside tails of agriculture prices thickening as three geopolitical and Goldman Sachs International weather risks build in an increasingly inward-looking market. Daan Struyven | o #1 Hormuz. Continued diesel and fertilizer disruptions may raise input Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC costs across agriculture, while renewed energy-security concerns could encourage major crop exporters to divert more crops into domestic biofuel production and reduce exportable supply. o #2 Black Sea. Renewed Russia-Ukraine tensions in the Black Sea—the world’s most important grain corridor—put up to 15-20% of global grain trade at risk. The disruption comes during the Black Sea’s peak wheat export season, with seaborne wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine already running sharply below normal levels. If disruptions continue when Black Sea corn exports typically pick up from October onward, risks could broaden from wheat to global corn markets. o #3 Super El Niño. A strengthening El Niño has a greater than 90% probability of reaching “super” El Niño conditions and is forecast to be the strongest on record. A super El Niño could simultaneously disrupt multiple crop regions through severe droughts and floods, while potentially creating transport disruptions by reducing water levels in key shipping routes like the Panama Canal. n But the larger risk is that these simultaneous shocks are hitting an increasingly inward-looking agriculture market. Even small supply disruptions may now generate larger and more persistent price spikes than in the past, as trade barriers may rise more quickly in response to supply risks amidst greater policy focus on domestic supply resilience since 2020. Higher barriers to trade may lower barriers to shocks because (precautionary) export restrictions and stock building can remove far more supply from global markets than the original disruption itself, while the resulting market fragmentation reduces traded liquidity and amplifies price volatility.

The authors would like to thank Samuel Jönsson — an intern on our commodities research team — for his extensive contributions to this report.

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Goldman Sachs Agriculture Analyst

Higher Barriers to Trade, Lower Barriers to Shocks: Hormuz, Black Sea and a Super El Niño

Agriculture markets entered 2026 with relatively ample supplies (Exhibit 1), but we see the upside tails of prices thickening as three geopolitical and weather risks build in an increasingly inward-looking market.

Exhibit 1: Agriculture Markets Entered 2026 With Relatively Ample Supplies

Source: USDA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

As these risks begin to take hold, the BCOM agriculture spot index has risen 24% year-over-year, led by a 41% increase in wheat prices (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: BCOM Agriculture Spot Index Has Risen 24% YoY, Led By a 41% Increase in Wheat Prices

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

#1 Hormuz The ongoing Middle East conflict could tighten agriculture markets in three ways. On the