Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS) Notes from the Road Constructive outlook commentary follows up solid 2Q26 delivery

Equity Research 24 July 2026 | 9:54PM GST

Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS): Notes from the Road: Constructive outlook commentary follows up solid 2Q26 delivery

We recently hosted Akzo Nobel’s CEO (Greg Poux-Guillaume), CFO (Maarten de Vries) Georgina Fraser, Ph.D. | and IR team for the company’s 2Q26 results roadshow in London. With this note, we Goldman Sachs International provide our key takeaways. Marcus von Scheele | Management struck a positive tone, highlighting potential for sequentially better Goldman Sachs International trends in EU Deco and Auto Refinish. Pricing is also expected to fully offset raw Thomas Ward material and freight inflation (Asia raws now seen moderating to low-teens) in 2H26. | Regarding the proposed merger with Axalta, the announced $600mn merger synergy Goldman Sachs International target was once again framed as a floor by the management team. Investor feedback Gabriel Simoes | demonstrated to us that conviction in the synergy target continues to build, and that Goldman Sachs International the SEA Deco divestment optionality is seen as supporting a path to deleverage to 2x ND/EBITDA in the mid-term even if management sees pro-forma leverage settling around 3x at the deal’s expected close. The Akzo team’s constructive commentary on the growth opportunities in Powder and assurance of a rebound in Packaging market share during 2027 rounded out a generally constructive roadshow.

n Merger synergies conservatively underwritten. Management sees $600mn in merger synergies as a floor with no rigid bucketing across the sub-segments yet. Procurement synergies are expected to be fully extracted by year 1, SG&A phased over two years with the majority in year 1, and supply chain/manufacturing efforts are expected to be a bit longer-dated. The business heads of the larger legacy segment business are expected to run the combined units across Auto, Refinish and Powder (meaning Axalta management for Auto and Refinish, and Akzo management for Powder). n SEA remains an attractive high-multiple divestment opportunity. Management is confident in strong divestment multiples for the SEA franchise drawing on the strong India and Pakistan precedent (25x and 14x respectively). Akzo leads in Deco outside SEA where Akzo is number 1 in Vietnam, but 3-4 elsewhere. n Pricing set to peak in 3Q supporting margin expansion into 1Q27. MSD pricing is expected to fully offset raw material and freight inflation with raw materials now moderating in Asia toward low-teens (from mid-teens earlier). The

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Goldman Sachs Akzo Nobel (AKZO.AS)

contract mix Akzo holds for sales linked to raw materials is roughly: 25% indexed, 25% long-term contracts, and 50% spot. n Deco EMEA weakness was customer specific 2Q. Management stated that underlying EMEA Deco volumes in 2Q were flattish vs. the down MSD that Akzo reported. The weakness was driven by a combination of destocking activity at a large customer and a commercial decision to halt deliveries over retailer terms and some paused promotions during pricing negotiations elsewhere. These issues have since been resolved, per the management team. Southern Europe outperformed with UK/Benelux lagging. There was no call-out with regards to 3Q risks from the European heatwave. n Balance sheet deleveraging is the capital allocation priority. Pro-forma net leverage starts at 3.0x at deal-closing with a path to 2.0x supported by free cash flow generation and potential SEA divestment on top. Deleveraging is prioritized ahead of buybacks. The special dividend is already fully funded. n Management confident in sequential improvement in Refinsh. Management pointed to solid volume growth in EMEA and…