Americas Banks & IBanks The next phase of capital markets growth & the AI infra impact

EQUITY RESEARCH | 8 September 2026 | 4:04PM EDT

The next phase of capital markets growth & the AI infra impact In this report, we examine the drivers of the step change in capital markets revenue since 2020, as well as market share trends over the past 15+ years. Key highlights:

• While there have been a number of cyclical drivers, in our view, the single biggest structural driver of revenue growth has been the expansion in the pool of tradable assets and the shift to financing those assets, vs. improved revenue margins.

• We expect these structural factors to drive further long-term growth from here, with more growth potential within investment banking and equities.

• In the near term, however, AI infrastructure-related capital markets activity has been an important catalyst for both investment banking and equity trading revenue, accounting for a meaningful part of 2026 revenue growth - we look to size this contribution.

• US firms across bulge bracket banks, market makers, and independent IBanks have been disproportionate beneficiaries and share gainers from the growth in capital markets, with market share increasing 23pp to 72% from 2010-26E. We also believe that share gains by independent IBanks could slow, given more competition for talent, and the fact that a high percentage of AI investment banking activity has a financing component, which favors large banks.

Top beneficiaries: Bulge brackets: Buy-rated BAC and JPM IBanks: Buy-rated EVR, LCLN, PIPR and PJT.

Richard Ramsden James Yaro Ben Snider Divyam Harlalka Matthew Weng Lokesh Kumar Sangewar Thirukumaran R Goldman Sachs & Co. LL Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs India SPL

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Goldman Sachs Americas Banks & IBanks

Capital markets fees continue to grow, and ROEs rise, driven by growth in tradable float of assets, and higher markets 8

AI a key driver of both Equities and investment banking in 2026 15

Equities continues to grow on expansion of financing business, IPOs, and market vol 20

FICC fee pool appears likely to grow at roughly GDP growth levels 24

Investment banking experiencing growth as a result of AI, but remains mid-cycle, with potential upside from sponsors 26

Market share accrues to US firms, although to different types of US player, depending on the product 35

Independent investment bank share gains could slow going forward 38

New vs. Old estimates & Key risks 43