Americas Building Homebuilders A Heat Map for Housing Permits Move Closer to a Trough as Signs of Stabilization Emerge

Equity Research 24 July 2026 | 4:39PM EDT

Americas Building - Homebuilders: A Heat Map for Housing: Permits Move Closer to a Trough as Signs of Stabilization Emerge

Ongoing Moderation Aligns with Market Stabilization and a Shift to Higher-End Susan Maklari | Buyers: On a trailing 12-month basis, single-family permits contracted 7% in June Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC versus -8% in May and a 2% decline in June 2025. The move comes as builders are Charles Perron-Piche, CFA focused on managing inventories and protecting margins despite the ongoing | charles.perron- weakness in demand led by the entry-level. This is in contrast to relative strength in Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

build-to-order and custom homes in line with broader economics. In our view, this Rhea Bhatia | mix shift along with cost controls and easing incentives—especially as we see signs of Goldman Sachs India SPL stabilization in Florida and parts of Texas—suggests incremental upside to gross Galilee Best margins. Against this, we believe DHI remains among the best positioned given the | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC geographic mix and focus on capital allocation. We also highlight Buy-rated MTH as the company executes on a growth focused strategy while keeping an eye to profitability.

Nevada and Arizona See the Largest Declines on a Rolling 3-Month Basis: Single-family permits for the 3-months ended June fell 2% YOY vs -4% in May and -7% a year ago. That said, they were up 7% vs the comparable pre-pandemic period. Among the largest new home markets, the deceleration was led by Nevada (-30%), Arizona (-13%), and Florida (-5%) coupled with weakening in the Northeast and Midwest. Nationally, we note 21 states were flat to up vs 14 in May consistent with the stabilization noted in our recent channel checks.

Florida MSAs See Continued Move off Recent Lows: Permits in the top 50 MSAs declined 5% YOY for the 3 months ended June vs -7% in May and -9% in June 2025. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL (+21%), North Port-Sarasota, FL (+18%), and Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL (+18%) saw the largest gains while Cape Coral, FL (-30%), Las Vegas, NV (-30%), and Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC (-25%) lagged. On a 2-year stack, growth was led by Kansas City, MO (+31%), Cincinnati, OH (+24%), and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL (+19%) while Deltona, FL (-36%), Jacksonville, FL (-36%), and Las Vegas, NV (-35%) had the largest declines.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Building - Homebuilders

Appendix: Builder Exposure by Market 9