Americas Energy Oil US Majors Screen for Attractive Valuation and Free Cash Flow Growth

Equity Research 24 July 2026 | 4:29PM EDT

US Majors: Screen for Attractive Valuation and Free Cash Flow Growth; Highlight 18% Total Return to COP (on Conviction List)

In this note, we update estimates for U.S. Majors (XOM, CVX, COP) ahead of 2Q26 Neil Mehta | earnings to reflect mark-to-market commodity prices and refining margins. Across Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

the group, we monitor exposure to elevated crude prices, robust refining margins, Alexa Petrick Breno | and Middle East production risk. Amid the macro volatility, we look for management Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC teams to maintain long-term plans for production growth, capital discipline, and Lydia Gould | shareholder returns. In particular, we highlight Buy-rated Chevron Corp (CVX) and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC ConocoPhillips (COP) for attractive risk/reward. Our structural view on CVX leverages Josiah Knight a diversified, high-margin production profile tracking toward ~7-10% growth this | year across the Permian, Kazakhstan, Gulf of America, and Guyana, with upside from Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

exploration activities. This expanding portfolio, paired with capital discipline, should drive a ~10% average annual growth rate in adjusted free cash flow and earnings per share through 2030 at $70/b Brent. For COP, major project start-ups and cost savings support a clear path to ~$7 bn in free cash flow growth by 2029 at $70/b WTI and a ~20-25% free cash flow per share CAGR through 2030. This growth should also drive strong shareholder returns through the cycle, around ~45% of cash flow from operations, while competitive positions in Alaska, Canada, and the Lower 48 offer OECD exposure against Middle East volatility. Please see within for further details.

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Goldman Sachs Americas Energy: Oil

Majors Comp Sheet Price Target Dividend Yield Return Tot Ret EV / DACF ND / EBITDA FCF / Equity Value Rating 7/24/26 12 Mo. % % 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E US Majors XOM Neutral $158.32 $164.00 2.6% 4% 6% 9.5x 10.2x 10.0x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 7% 6% 6% CVX Buy $196.51 $225.00 3.7% 14% 18% 7.5x 8.6x 8.5x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 10% 8% 8% COP Buy $121.34 $140.00 2.8% 15% 18% 6.6x 6.9x 6.9x 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x 8% 7% 8% Average/Sum -- -- -- 3.0% 11% 14% 7.9x 8.5x 8.5x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 8% 7% 7%

EU Majors SHEL Buy $88.77 $111.00 3.4% 25% 28% 5.1x 5.2x 5.1x 0.6x 0.5x 0.4x 12% 12% 12% TTE Neutral $76.42 $78.00 4.5% 2% 7% 5.2x 5.6x 5.7x 0.6x 0.6x 0.6x 10% 10% 10% BP Buy $44.23 $52.00 4.5% 18% 22% 3.7x 3.9x 3.7x 0.4x 0.2x 0.1x 12% 12% 12% EQNR Sell $394.13 $320.00 2.8% -19% -16% 4.0x 5.4x 5.4x 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x 12% 6% 6% Average/Sum -- -- -- 3.8% 6% 10% 4.5x 5.0x 5.0x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 11% 10% 10%

Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ConocoPhillips (COP, Buy) n We continue to monitor a slate of growth projects, including NFE, Port Arthur, NFS, and Willow, that position the portfolio for higher production and cash flow. Following a successful winter construction season, the Willow project is now ~50% complete, keeping first oil on-track for early 2029 with the sea lift of processing modules serving as the next milestone. In the Lower 48, we look for updates on activity levels following plans to add a rig in the Permian to match ongoing completion efficiencies and higher levels of non-operated spend. Despite these positive project updates, we remain mindful of near-term earnings headwinds from soft Lower 48 natural gas realizations, which fell to ~24% of Henry Hub last quarter due to local Permian oversupply. On the upcoming earnings call, we also look for timing updates in the Middle East, where we believe our 2Q27 start-up for Train 1 of NFE skews as conservative. n…