Americas Payment Technology Consumer spending update July Fiserv SMB spend steps down from strong June levels

Equity Research 3 August 2026 | 9:02AM EDT

Americas Payment Technology: Consumer spending update: July Fiserv SMB spend steps down from strong June levels

Bottom Line: Will Nance | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Fiserv recently updated the Fiserv Small Business Index for the month of July. Jack Evans Spending growth decelerated in July, rising 1.6% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC compared to 2.3% in June, while non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) growth slowed to Chandru Ravikumar 1.8% from 3.5%. Transaction growth declined further in July (-1.6% vs. -1.4% YoY in | June) alongside a moderation in average ticket sizes which grew 3.3% YoY in July (vs. Goldman Sachs India SPL 3.7% in June, 2-yr highs). FISV noted that Essential spend growth (2.0% YoY) continued to outpace Discretionary spend growth (1.3% YoY) in July with the latter seeing a greater sequential deceleration as consumers remain resilient but increasingly cautious (2.5%/2.2% YoY in June for Essential/Discretionary). Retail sector growth continued to be positive but decelerated vs. a record pace in June (1.9% YoY in July vs. 3.1% in June) as prices declined on average while foot traffic continued to be resilient. Restaurant growth declined by 0.8% in July following a nearly flat YoY growth in June as transactions continued to decline and pricing growth decelerated.

Overall, we view the sequential decel in growth from the robust levels seen in June is in line with commentary from the card networks last month and more or less in line with expectations. Commentary from V/MA also pointed to July spend trends continuing to be healthy with Visa noting a 9% growth in US volumes through July 21, with June benefitting from day count factors and Amazon Prime day timing shifts. We view these numbers as highly supportive for horizontal payments models in our coverage. For restaurant-focused names, the spending backdrop continues to be relatively flattish given the continued decline in foot traffic and moderation in pricing growth. Furthermore, we note that gas spending tends to skew more towards interchange plus pricing and is heavily concentrated at the large card acquirers (FISV, GPN), which could drive some remixing towards higher take rate activities for payment processors.

For the month of July, the Fiserv Small Business Index saw total SMB sales at 1.6% YoY (1.8% on an NSA basis) vs 2.3% YoY in June (3.5% on an NSA basis). At the sector level, SMB retail sales growth came in at 1.9% YoY in July (vs. a strong growth of 3.1% in June) as pricing growth reverted to being negative (-0.3% YoY vs. 0.4% in June) while foot traffic growth continued to be resilient (2.2% YoY vs. 2.6% in June). Restaurant Spending (Food Services and Drinking Places) declined in July (-0.8% YoY

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Goldman Sachs Americas Payment Technology

vs. flat for June) on the back of a continued decline in foot traffic (-3.6% YoY) plus a deceleration in pricing growth (2.9% YoY).

n FISV/GPN/XYZ (+/=): Retail growth continued to be positive in July as foot traffic growth continued to be resilient but overall growth decelerated from the record levels seen in June (1.9% YoY vs. 3.1% in June, the strongest pace in nearly 2 years). July saw a larger sequential deceleration in discretionary spend vs. essential spend even as gasoline/fuel prices continued to moderate (avg ticket growth at Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers came in at 16% YoY in July vs. 17%/22% in June/May). We continue to believe horizontal payment providers remain well positioned to capture spend across categories and limit downside from consumer caution (although we would note pricing for discretionary categories…