Americas Retail Takeaways from IR management

Equity Research 8 September 2026 | 6:01AM EDT

Americas Retail: Takeaways from IR/management; 2Q26 earnings summary; August traffic trends; Updating estimates

In this note, we discuss key takeaways from meetings with the IR/management teams Kate McShane, CFA | of Costco Wholesale (COST), Five Below (FIVE), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF). We also provide an earnings summary for 2Q26, Mark Jordan, CFA summarize management commentary on the consumer, discuss QTD trends, and | analyze Placer traffic data for various hardlines sub-sectors, which showed mixed Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

trends for average visits per venue (y/y) in Aug’26. Additionally, we outline the tariff Emily Ghosh | refund status across our retail coverage universe, detailing whether each company Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC received a refund and, if so, whether we included the benefit in our Non-GAAP calculations. Finally, we update our estimates for BBWI, ULTA, and WMT. Nishi Agarwal | Goldman Sachs India SPL

Grace Chee Takeaways from IR/management meetings | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Samantha Chiang | COST Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Costco’s August comp was negatively impacted by the Labor Day shift. Costco reported August SSS (ex-gas/FX) of +5.4%, decelerating from +6.6% in July. That said, the shift of Labor Day timing in the US and Canada negatively impacted total and comparable sales by a little less than 75 bps during the month. Excluding this calendar shift, we estimate Costco’s comp in August would be roughly in line with July, though management noted a slowdown in Canada likely due in part to recent tariff news. September sales will likely benefit from the timing shift of Labor Day, with an estimated tailwind of less than 75 bps given that it will be a 5-week retail month (vs. 4 weeks in August).

Consumer trends and price gaps remain relatively consistent sequentially. Management did not call out any changes in consumer trends in August. In terms of the grocery pricing environment, management is not seeing anything different from competitors when doing comp shopping; the value Costco is providing to its members is in-line with what the company would expect on like-for-like goods.

Non-foods was up +MSD in August. Strength in the category was driven by home furnishings, sporting goods, and jewelry. While Costco continued to see strength in jewelry, management noted that the related tailwind started to decrease amid tougher laps from prior years. Looking more broadly, the non-foods category also faced a tougher lap y/y given that some programs from last year (e.g., Uber Eats and DoorDash gift cards) were not in place this year.

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Looking ahead, we continue to have confidence in Costco’s value proposition resonating with consumers, and we expect the company to continue gaining share. Membership trends remain healthy, with total members up 4.1% y/y in F3Q, and with US and Canada renewal rates at 92.2%. While Costco has seen significant membership growth over the past few years, the company is now focusing on growing sales through a better member experience, which is largely in the form of infill locations and relieving pressure from its higher volume buildings in the US. We currently estimate F4Q SSS (ex gas/FX) of +6.4%, above consensus (LSEG Data & Analytics) at +6.1%, and F4Q EPS of $6.62, above consensus at $6.54.

FIVE Merchandising strategy and product exclusivity. Management emphasized that the company is becoming increasingly disciplined in how it buys inventory, with a greater focus on purchasing with conviction rather than simply expanding SKU counts. Over the past two years, Five…