Americas Transportation The Monthly Mosaic August 2026

Equity Research 8 September 2026 | 6:00AM EDT

Americas Transportation: The Monthly Mosaic: August 2026

We highlight three major themes in this issue. Jordan Alliger | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 1. Major economies reported mostly expansionary manufacturing activity in Andrzej Tomczyk, CFA | August. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC The U.S. manufacturing economy remained expansionary in August with the ISM Manufacturing Index reading at 54.6, down 1 point from July but marking the Paul Stoddard | eight consecutive month of the index being above-50 (Exhibit 2); the New Orders Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC sub-index component of the manufacturing index also remained expansionary Aakarsh Goyal in August at 53.7 (also down from June; Exhibit 3). China’s manufacturing PMI | remained expansionary in August as well with slight acceleration versus July (Exhibit Goldman Sachs India SPL

13), while China’s new manufacturing orders also remained expansionary (Exhibit 14). The Eurozone saw continued manufacturing expansion in August after first rising slightly above-50 in February (Exhibit 15), while Mexico’s manufacturing PMI contracted in August, with 22 contractionary readings in 24 months (Exhibit 16).

According to the Logistics Managers Index surveys (LMI), overall inventory levels saw modest expansion in August with deceleration versus July; the overall inventory survey results imply that inventories are not necessarily overburdened given levels remain well below expansionary levels seen during the Covid-peak ordering era (Exhibit 7); we also note that while retail logistic managers noted expanding inventories in August, B2B/upstream inventories actually contracted (Exhibit 10). Furthermore, we continue to highlight the ISM New Orders index versus ISM Inventories with August’s New Orders reading remaining above Inventories (53.7 minus 50.6 implies a +3.1 positive spread impulse) as we continue to highlight the directional relationship observed between the ISM Inventory Spread and CASS freight volumes over time (see Exhibit 11)—as ISM New Orders eventually pushing higher could foreshadow future tailwinds to freight. For more on recent and near-term import trends, see our US Tariff Impact Tracker.

2. Spot truck rate growth (ex-fuel surcharge) averaged +26% YoY in August and -18% MoM. Dry van spot truck rate growth (excluding fuel surcharge) was +26% YoY on average in August and -18% MoM (Exhibit 42); while spot rate trajectory has shown some recent weakness sequentially, the 3Q-QTD YoY remains broadly elevated at up +35% YoY; as we have noted previously, firmer trucking rates YoY are in-part reflecting the more limited capacity/driver pool available in the market

Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

Goldman Sachs Americas Transportation: The Monthly Mosaic

(reflecting tighter CDL restrictions and English language enforcement). We note that the Dry Van Market Demand Index (which compares load availability to truck availability; Exhibit 39) was still up by an average of +76% YoY in August given the combination of the decline in truck availability (-31.5% YoY) and the increase in load availability (+20% YoY) as illustrated in Exhibit 40 - Exhibit 41. Overall trucking revenue per mile growth (we use CASS as a proxy for contract rates, as it is weighted more towards contract rates) was +9% YoY in the most recent update (as per the CASS Truckload Linehaul Index; Exhibit 43); contract rate growth could improve further should the spot rate trajectory remain elevated.

Preliminary seasonally adjusted net Class 8 truck orders of ~20k for August was down -35% MoM, coming in below the 10-yr monthly average of ~25k after seeing about seven consecutive months of above-replacement…