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28 July 2026, 08:08 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Paul Donovan's daily audio: Another convulsion Audio Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS GWM, UBS AG London Branch

Technology equities are having one of their periodic convulsions—without any obvious economic driver. The South Korean market is at levels last seen in April. This underscores the speed of technology equities’ rise; that speed limits the correction’s economic consequences. Households are still likely to spend —cash stockpiles and the ability to reduce how much income has been saved, more than equity wealth effects, have been sustaining consumer spending.

US President Trump suggested talks with Iran are going well. US retail gasoline prices far above consumers’ idea of a “fair” price creates an incentive to sound upbeat on talks. One issue is the extent to which uncertainty may paralyze corporate decision-making—the Gulf war has more uncertain economic consequences than, say, the Russia-Ukraine war.

There was a modest UK disinflation signal, with the July BRC shop price index showing less inflation than expected—though the inflation pressures in the UK come primarily from the peculiar electricity pricing structure. Far- right leader Farage’s main election challenger, Count Binface, unveiled their manifesto to muted market reaction.

US June trade data may attract some attention, given the rise of economic nationalism. US consumer confidence data says little about economics, given extreme political partisanship, but may feed back into the political policymaking process.

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This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

Global asset class preferences definitions The asset class preferences provide high-level guidance to make investment decisions. The preferences reflect the collective judgement of the members of the House View meeting, primarily based on assessments of expected total returns on liquid and commonly known indices, House View scenarios, and analyst convictions over the next 12 months. Note that the tactical asset allocation (TAA) positioning of our different investment strategies may differ from these views due to factors including portfolio construction, concentration, and borrowing constraints. Attractive: We consider this asset class to be attractive. Consider opportunities in this asset class. Neutral: We do not expect outsized returns or losses. Hold longer-term exposure. Unattractive: We consider this asset class to be unattractive. Consider alternative opportunities Note: For equities, we have a five-tier rating system with two additional preferences Most Attractive: We consider this asset class to be among the most attractive. Investors should seek opportunities to add exposure. Least Attractive: We consider this asset class to be among the least attractive. Seek more favorable alternatives opportunities. When equities are included with the other asset classes in the three-tier rating system, we collapse “Most Attractive” with “Attractive” and “Least Attractive” with “Unattractive.”

Appendix Risk information UBS Chief Investment Office's ("CIO") investment views are prepared and published by the Global Wealth Management business of UBS Switzerland AG (regulated by FINMA in Switzerland) or its affiliates ("UBS"), part of UBS Group AG ("UBS Group"). UBS Group includes former Credit Suisse AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates. The investment views have been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Generic investment research – Risk information: This publication is for your information only and is not intended as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. The analysis contained herein does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, investment strategies, financial situation and needs of any specific recipient. It is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. Certain services and…