Brazil Low Current Account Deficit in Jun

Economics Research 28 July 2026 | 7:53AM EDT

Brazil: Low Current Account Deficit in Jun; Solid FDI; Portfolio Outflows (Ramos)

Bottom Line: The current account recorded a US$2.3bn deficit in Jun, in line with the Alberto Ramos | Bloomberg consensus and visibly lower than the deficit a year ago. At US$9.1bn FDI inflows Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC surprised to the upside. Compared with a year ago, a higher trade balance surplus (supported by favorable terms of trade) more than offset a wider services deficit. In the factor-payments balance, lower net interest and payments were offset by higher transfers of profits and dividends. The capital account recorded a US$4.2bn surplus supported by solid FDI. Portfolio flows were negative: driven by equities (small inflow into local fixed-income). On a 12-month trailing basis the current account deficit is tracking at a moderate 2.5% of GDP with FDI firming to 3.6% of GDP.

A deep fiscal adjustment to reduce the highly negative public sector savings remains key, in our view, to enable a permanent structural current account adjustment and create space for a pick-up in investment without worsening the external balance.

Current Account Balance: -US$2.3bn, versus consensus at -US$2.3bn and GS at -US$2.3bn

FDI: US$9.1bn, versus consensus at US$5.5bn and GS at US$5.8bn

1. The current account recorded a US$2.3bn deficit in Jun, in line with the Bloomberg consensus and lower than the US$5.2bn deficit a year ago. 2. The trade balance recorded a US$8.83bn surplus during Jun 2025, higher than the US$5.25bn surplus recorded a year ago. 3. The services balance deficit widened to US$5.1bn (vs US$4.4bn a year ago) with larger outlays with travel expenses, transportation, leasing, and other services. 4. The factor payments deficit reached -US$6.47bn (from -US$6.44bn a year ago) with lower net interest payments (-US$2.26bn vs -US$2.40bn a year ago) balanced by higher remittances of profits and dividends (-US$4.23bn vs. -US$4.06bn a year ago). 5. The capital account recorded a US$4.2bn surplus in Jun. FDI inflows reached a robust US$9.1bn inflow (well above consensus for +US$5.5bn and the +US$3.1bn print a year ago). The Jun FDI print was driven by US$8.4bn in equity participation (of which US$4.4bn through reinvested profits), and a US$0.7bn inflow through intercompany loans. In turn, direct investment abroad reached US$2.0bn, vs US$2.3bn a year ago. As such, net FDI (in Brazil by non-residents

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net of investment by Brazilians aboard) recorded a US$7.1bn flow in Jun, vs. US$0.7bn a year ago. 6. Portfolio investment recorded a US$1.1bn outflow in Jun, with a US$2.2bn outflow from local equities and US$1.2bn inflow into local fixed income. Other unspecified capital flows recorded a US$1.8bn inflow in Jun. 7. On a 12-month trailing basis the current account deficit is tracking at US$61.3bn (2.5% of GDP) with FDI running at US$89.3bn (3.6% of GDP).

Balance of Payments Jan-Jun Variation 12-month sum In US$bn 2025 2026 $USbn % change Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020 Dec 2021 Dec 2022 Dec 2023 Dec 2024 Dec 2025 Jun 2026 Current account - % - Trade balance % Exports % Imports % Services - % - International Travel -5.2 -7.0 -1.7 33% - Transport -7.3 -6.4 0.9 -12% - Equipment Rentals -6.1 -6.6 -0.5 8% - Other services -6.9 -7.5 -0.6 9% - Primary Income balance - % - Salary 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -27% Interest - % - Profits and dividends - % - Secondary Income balance 2.3 2.7 0.4 18%

Capital and financial account % Net FDI % FDI (into Brazil) % FDI (Abroad) % Portfolio Inflows % - Equities - % - Debt % - Other % -

Current account (% of GDP) - FDI (% of GDP)

Source: Haver Analytics, Central Bank of Brazil, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Robust Trade Balance (Goods) Surplus Solid FDI Inflows

(US$bn; 12mo rolling sum) (US$bn; 12mo rolling sum) (US$bn; 12mo rolling sum) (US$bn; 12mo rolling sum) Trade Balance (LHS) CA deficit (+) 100 90 Exports (RHS) 120 FDI inflows 120 330 80 Imports (RHS)

Source: Haver Analytics, BCB, Goldman Sachs Global…