Brixmor Property Group (BRX) 2Q26 First Take Vacancy up in 2Q as indicated, FFO guide up to consensus, '27 tailwinds from S...

Equity Research 27 July 2026 | 8:47PM EDT

Brixmor Property Group (BRX): 2Q26 First Take: Vacancy up in 2Q as indicated, FFO guide up to consensus, ‘27 tailwinds from SNO pipeline

BRX reported 2Q26 NAREIT FFO of $0.58/share (-1.5%/inline with GS/FactSet Caitlin Burrows | consensus), and increased both 2026 FFO and SS NOI guidance: The 2026 FFO range Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC was raised by $0.01 at the low end to $2.35–$2.37, leaving the midpoint in line with Jeremy Kuhl GS/FactSet at $2.36, while SS NOI growth guidance increased to 5.00%–5.75% from | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 4.75%–5.50%. Shailee Lnu | Given the increase to FFO guidance was only to consensus and 2Q economic Goldman Sachs India SPL occupancy dipped lower (albeit as was directionally indicated on the 1Q26 earnings call), we expect BRX could perform in line with REITs on Tuesday, 7/28. As we discuss Harrison Slater, CFA | below, we are constructive on BRX’s FY26 outlook and the outlook for continued Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC growth in 2027 given the SNO pipeline. We are Buy Rated on BRX.

2Q26 Highlights n Y/Y SS NOI growth was +5.8% in the quarter, including 440bps of contribution from base rents, or +6.1%/430bps YTD. While the FY guidance range was revised higher (to 5.4%, which would be the highest since 2022), it suggests a slowdown in 2H26, which we expect is due to tougher comps and the timing of economic occupancy. n Occupancy. o BRX reported billed occupancy of 90.4% as of quarter end, -100bps q/q (BRX had indicated on the 1Q26 earnings call that it could see an occupancy headwind in 2Q due to box recaptures) and +70bps y/y. o BRX’s total leased rate declined a smaller 30bps q/q, to 94.8%, and was +60bps y/y. As shown in Exhibit 1, BRX’s small shop leased rate increased sequentially by 50bps, to a record 92.6% in 2Q26, while the anchor leased rate decreased by 60bps to 95.9% (Exhibit 2); each were up on a y/y basis. o BRX’s signed-but-not-occupied (SNO) spread expanded to 440bps (from 370bps in 1Q26, see Exhibit 3), while the SNO pipeline dollar contribution increased to $71.2mn from $66.7mn a quarter ago and $67.1mn a year ago. As shown in Exhibit 4, of the full 2Q26 SNO pipeline: $29.4mn/$36.8mn is anticipated to commence in 2H26/FY27, while the corresponding 2H25/FY26 amounts as of 2Q25 were $40.9/$21.4mn. We believe this validates the expectation for a slower 2H26 SS NOI result, but a pickup in 2027.

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Goldman Sachs Brixmor Property Group (BRX)

Exhibit 1: BRX’s small shop leased rate reached a record Exhibit 2: BRX’s anchor leased rate is -60bps q/q, but high +40y/y Small shop leased rate across retail REITs Anchor leased rate across strip center REITs

Small shop leased rate Anchor leased rate 92% 96%

Source: Company data Source: Company data

Exhibit 3: BRX’s SNO pipeline re-expanded in 2Q as leasing Exhibit 4: The make-up of BRX’s SNO pipeline gives us got ahead of realizing economic occupancy confidence 2027 SS NOI will reaccelerate after a slower BRX leased occupancy, billed occupancy and the spread 2H26 (albeit strong FY26) BRX’s SNO pipeline ($mn) in 2Q26 vs. 2Q25, organized by year of expected rent commencement

98.0% 5.0% $80.0 4.5% 96.0% $70.0 4.0% 3.5% $60.0

SNO pipeline ($mn) 94.0% 3.0% $50.0 92.0% 2.5% $40.0 2.0% 90.0% $30.0 1.5% 1.0% $20.0 88.0% 0.5% $10.0 86.0% 0.0% $0.0 2Q25 2Q26 Leased Occupied Spread (RHS) 2H Y+1 Y+2 (& beyond)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Company data Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

n Pricing remains strong, with TTM total cash lease spreads (new, renewal & option leases) at +15.7% (Exhibit 5), including +34.4% for TTM new leases in particular. We are encouraged…