CEEMEA Week Ahead CNB To Hold

Economics Research 31 July 2026 | 3:55PM BST

CEEMEA Week Ahead: CNB To Hold; CPIs and PMIs Across the Region; GDP In Ukraine

In the coming week, there will be an MPC meeting in Czechia (Thursday). July CPI data will Kevin Daly | be released in Turkiye (Monday), Kazakhstan (Monday), Czechia (Wednesday), Ghana Goldman Sachs International

(Wednesday), and Hungary (Friday). Additionally, Q2 GDP data will be released in Ukraine Clemens Grafe | (Tuesday), while July PMI data will start to be released across the region on Monday. Goldman Sachs International

In Czechia we and consensus expect the CNB to hold rates unchanged at +3.75%, following Andrew Matheny | relatively dovish CPI data and board member comments that point to an on-hold decision Goldman Sachs International for now (see our full preview piece here). In Turkiye we expect headline inflation to remain broadly stable at +32.1%yoy (consensus: +31.9%yoy). We expect monthly core goods Farouk Soussa | inflation to turn negative on seasonal clothing discounts, although – excluding clothing – Goldman Sachs International core goods inflation is likely to remain firmer, driven by faster TRY depreciation. In Ludovica Ambrosino Kazakhstan, we expect headline inflation to edge down from +10.4%yoy to +10.3%yoy | (consensus: +10.6%yoy), driven by Tenge strength and subdued food inflation. In Czechia Goldman Sachs International

we and consensus expect headline inflation to increase 0.2pp to +1.7%yoy – reflecting the Basak Edizgil | increase in fuel prices – and core inflation to remain broadly stable on an annual basis. In Goldman Sachs International Ghana, we forecast inflation to increase from +5.3%yoy to +5.8%yoy, driven by utilities – Johan Allen due to base effects and higher oil prices – and food inflation. In Hungary, we expect CPI | inflation to fall from +1.7%yoy to +1.5%yoy – in line with consensus but well below the Goldman Sachs International

MNB’s forecast (+1.9%yoy) – driven by the sharp appreciation of the HUF since the April election as well as the trend of weak food inflation. In Ukraine, we expect GDP growth to turn positive and increase from -0.6%yoy to +0.6%yoy (NBU:+0.8%yoy).

Czechia: CNB On Hold, Focus on Incoming Data

The Board of the Czech National Bank will meet on Thursday, August 6, and we and consensus expect it to keep its key policy rate unchanged at +3.75%. At its last meeting, the Board raised its policy rate, mainly to address inflation risks, in particular elevated core and services inflation, which have been running persistently above the Bank’s target. While the MPC still appears to be attentive to inflation risks, most board members do not seem to be in a hurry to tighten monetary conditions further: recent comments and the minutes from the June 18 meeting have struck a cautious tone, characterising additional hikes as probable but leaning towards a pause at the upcoming MPC until more data is received. This patience has been reinforced by the June CPI print, which surprised both consensus and the CNB’s staff forecast to the downside – though some board members have downplayed the miss, attributing it to volatile food and energy items that could quickly turn inflationary, especially after the re-escalation in the Middle East. At the same time, we expect the CNB to continue to strike a data-dependent stance, and once again signal a willingness to hike unless core inflationary pressures begin to abate.

See our preview, including recent CNB board member comments, here.

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Goldman Sachs CEEMEA Week Ahead

Turkiye: Headline Inflation to Remain Stable at 32.1%yoy While Monthly Inflation Accelerates Owing to Seasonality and Higher Fuel Prices

July CPI data will be published on Monday, 3 August. We expect headline inflation to remain broadly stable at 32.1%yoy in July (consensus: 31.9%yoy), while sequential inflation rises from 1.0%mom (nsa) to 2.0%mom (nsa), driven mainly by seasonal wage and tax adjustments. We expect monthly core goods inflation to turn negative on seasonal…