China Trade Dashboard 2026Q2 Higher Prices Drive Strong Import and Export Growth

Economics Research 1 August 2026 | 11:06AM HKT

China: Trade Dashboard 2026Q2: Higher Prices Drive Strong Import and Export Growth

n Exports: China’s real export growth slowed to 6.6% yoy in Q2, down from 14.1% Yuting Yang | yoy in Q1. Export prices rose sharply to 11.8% yoy in Q2, compared with -0.4% Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. yoy in Q1, ending thirteen consecutive quarters of year-over-year contraction. As a result, nominal exports increased 18.4% yoy in Q2, up from 13.7% yoy in Q1.1 By product, export prices rose the most for minerals (mainly refined petroleum products, +29.2% yoy), followed by electrical equipment, which includes semiconductors and saw export prices increase 27.8% yoy, and mechanical machinery (+23.4% yoy). In real terms, transportation equipment exports, mostly autos, posted the strongest growth (+22.3% yoy), while export volumes of minerals fell the most (-9.3% yoy). By destination, nominal exports to most regions posted double-digit year-over-year growth, while exports to the Middle East dropped sharply on strait closure (-21.5% yoy). n Imports: China’s nominal imports rose 25.8% yoy in Q2, up from 21.0% yoy in Q1, mainly driven by higher import prices. Overall import prices increased 24.9% yoy in Q2, accelerating from 5.3% yoy in Q1, with the strongest price growth in mechanical machinery and the weakest in transportation equipment. In volume terms, stone/glass/metals (including gold) imports grew the most (+23.5% yoy), while minerals (mostly crude oil) declined the most (-17.1% yoy). By origin, nominal imports from the Middle East fell 40.6% yoy in Q2, while imports from “other countries” (e.g., Switzerland) rose 60.6% yoy. 2 n Outlook for goods trade surplus: Export growth remained resilient in Q2 despite some moderation in volume terms, while import growth was largely price-driven and uneven across products. Looking ahead, we expect export volume growth to stay robust in the coming quarters, supported by the strong structural competitiveness of Chinese products, while import volume growth should remain subdued amid elevated oil prices and soft domestic demand. Incorporating Q2 trade data, we raise our 2026 export volume growth forecast to 7.9% from 7.2%, while lowering our import volume growth forecast to 4.4% from 6.8%. Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, alongside surging AI-related prices driven by the global AI capex cycle, are expected to lift year-over-year export and import price growth to 10.4% and 21.8%, respectively, in 2026 (compared with our previous forecasts of 2.9% and

1 Here we use the log growth rate to normalize volatility and facilitate multi-period comparisons. 2 We estimate that China’s imports from Switzerland contributed 46.2 percentage points to the 60.6% year-over-year growth in the ‘others’ category during Q2.

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7.6%). Consequently, China’s goods trade surplus is likely to narrow modestly to 4.9% of GDP in 2026, from 5.4% in 2025, with nominal exports and imports rising 19.4% and 27.1%, respectively.3 n Outlook for current account: Beyond goods trade, we expect the services trade deficit to narrow modestly in 2026 as inbound tourism continues to recover, supported by relaxed visa policies and improved tax refund rules. Combining a smaller goods trade surplus with a narrower services deficit, we forecast China’s current account surplus to edge down to 3.5% of GDP in 2026 from 3.7% in 2025, before rising again in 2027 as import prices ease. Our 2026 current account forecast remains slightly above the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.4% of GDP, but our 2027 forecast is notably above.

3 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 5.6% of GDP in 2026 (vs. 6.0% in 2025) based on the Customs definition