Connecting the Dots Macro vs. Micro, Conviction List, Deutsche Bank, RE snippets and Telco leverage plus key research

Equity Research 4 September 2026 | 9:05PM BST

Macro vs. Micro, Conviction List, Deutsche Bank, RE snippets and Telco leverage plus key research

All about that macro. Rates dominating the debate along with a growing list of Sahar Islam | macro risks equity investors are watching (elections, Middle East and gas into Goldman Sachs International year-end in Europe, FX). Rates are trading in tandem with energy even though energy is being mentioned less than it was a few months ago in investor conversations (see Exhibit 1 below which suggests we should pay some attention to energy). 2 Macro things to listen to this weekend: 1) George Cole, Kamakshya Trivedi and Vickie Chang on ‘AI, Rates and the Dollar’; 2) Our cross-asset strategists in this GOAL Back to School led by Christian Mueller-Glissmann here.

But there are micro ideas aplenty – Conviction list. GS Strategist Sharon Bell reminds us that the micro picture remains healthy for the rest of this year, with some moderation in earnings growth next year. Listen next week: Join us for a conversation with Sharon about why Europe is the secret outperformer. We will also be joined by our equity analysts in some of the sectors where our strategists are O/W (Banks, Telcos, Defence and Renewables). Thursday 10 Sept 4:00PM UKT. Sign up here. Sharon highlights that there is plenty of room for stock picking to add diversification given historically low cross correlations. We also have our latest Conviction List out with Jess Binder Graham, adding RWE (shift to vertically integrated powerhouse supports re-rating and mid-teens EPS growth), Adyen (multiple levers to grow topline combined with a strong moat) and Talanx (growth angle combined with unique earnings buffer and balance sheet / index optionality) while removing Enel, Wise, Hannover Re and Zalando. Listen to the CL podcast here.

German fiscal and Deutsche Bank upgrade. Chris Hallam upgraded Deutsche Bank to Buy (from Neutral) with a street high PT, arguing that it is entering an era of higher profitability with improving revenue momentum and positive operating leverage. This is in part aided by an increasingly supportive domestic backdrop in Germany (we recently highlighted some more positive snippets on Germany from earnings calls like Randstad here). Turning to macro, our economists discuss some concerns around the impact of gas (where the DAX remains the most sensitive), low Rhine levels and China competition but the federal deficit trackers are wider than they expected at the start of the year, with more widening expected next year. 21-23 Sept is our German Corporate Conference with 70% of the DAX attending.

Real Estate conference snippets for generalists. 1) Logistics demand remains healthy from e-commerce (Amazon), newer Chinese players (e.g. Shein, Temu,

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Goldman Sachs Connecting the Dots

Joybuy), 3PLs, re-industrialisation and defence players (particularly in Germany, the UK and Northern Europe); 2) Data center demand is ‘exceptionally strong’ but execution is key and can take a long time with added complexity from regulation (e.g., new Spanish draft legislation which would require DCs to source at least 80% of electricity consumption from new renewable generation, requiring a significant build out, amongst many other targets); 3) Retail in the US, particularly at the low end, as well as Europe are raising some questions (quality retail assets continue to trade well). Lots more in the feedback note from Jonathan Kownator.

Telcos – time to lever up? Andrew Lee thinks it is time to look to the high leverage and higher return and re-ratings opportunities to amplify equity upside as returns and FCF in the sector…