Daily US

24 July 2026, 09:00 UTC Chief Investment Office GWM Investment Research

Ensure portfolio resilience to navigate uncertainty UBS House View - Daily US Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer Americas and Global Head of Equities, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS) Mark Haefele, Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, UBS Switzerland AG Tilmann Kolb, Analyst, UBS AG Dubai Branch Giovanni Staunovo, Strategist, UBS Switzerland AG Vincent Heaney, Strategist, UBS AG London Branch Daisy Tseng, Strategist, UBS AG Singapore Branch Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income, Americas, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS)

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Thought of the day Global equities are on track to post a second week of declines. Escalating US-Iran tensions have sent Brent crude oil above USD 100/bbl, stoking inflation fears, and higher AI capex has intensified investor worries over hyperscalers’ returns on investment. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.7%—the highest level since January 2025. What to watch: 27 July • Germany Ifo business climate in July Alphabet’s shares fell over 7% on Thursday after it again raised its estimates for 2026 capital spending to USD 195-205bn, while its free cash • US durable goods orders in June flow for the second quarter fell into negative territory for the first time in the company’s history.

Sentiment was also dented by further escalation in the Middle East. The Iran-aligned Houthis attacked vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting another vital waterway for global energy supplies. President Donald Trump vowed “major military punishment” for both Iran and the Houthis if there were more attacks on shipping. And the US and Iran continue to exchange strikes. The latest data showed a decline in loading activity within the Gulf, with volumes falling to 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) over the past seven days, compared with 6mbpd over the past 30 days. Floating storage of tankers in the Gulf has started to increase again—reaching 80-90 million barrels, up from 35-40 million barrels two weeks ago—as the number of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz has fallen. For comparison, over 180 million barrels of oil were stranded in the Gulf in early May at the height of

This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS Switzerland AG, UBS AG Dubai Branch, UBS AG London Branch, UBS AG Singapore Branch. Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document.

The risk of further escalation is elevated, and a retest of oil price highs from earlier this year cannot be ruled out should military actions intensify, including strikes on energy infrastructure. In our base case, we expect energy flows through the Strait to recover over time, even if they are unlikely to reach pre-conflict levels, as mounting economic pressures on both sides should lead to mutual interest in re-establishing shipping. Prolonged disruption of energy supplies would add further pressure on US household budgets when affordability is already a key concern, while reduced or minimal income from oil exports could impede the Iranian government’s ability to provide vital goods to its population.

This means that inflationary pressure should subside as the year progresses, and that an aggressive tightening cycle remains unlikely in the near term, in our view. The US June consumer price index showed that monthly underlying inflation, which excludes volatile items like energy and food, fell for the first time since 2020. This supports our view that Fed policy is already sufficiently restrictive and that inflation should continue to trend lower without the need for a meaningful further increase in rates.

On AI, earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon next week will provide further insights into hyperscalers’ capex commitments and…