DB Early Morning Reid Macro Strategy

DB Early Morning Reid - Macro Strategy

Key Market Data (Index @ Close // Change) (S&P 500 @ 7586 // -0.45%) (STOXX Europe 600 @ 634 // -0.28%) (iTraxx Crossover @ 265 // +3) (Brent Oil^ @ 107.83 // +0.77%) (10yr Treasury^ @ 4.99 // 0 bp) (10yr Bund @ 3.54 // 2 bp) (Dollar Index^ @ 99.64 // +0.10%) (Further Fed hikes/cuts priced for 2026 @ 52 // 0 bp) (Further ECB hikes/cuts priced for 2026 @ 36 // -3 bp) ^ - Change from previous day's 4:30 GMT to 04:30 GMT

It’s been a familiar story for markets over the last 24 hours, with a fresh selloff as higher energy prices led to mounting fears about stagflation. Various oil supply issues were the main catalyst, which collectively pushed Brent crude (+2.90%) up to its highest closing level since May, at $108.75/bbl. And in turn, that kept up the pressure on bonds, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+1.5bps) breaking above its 2023 intraday peak in trading, to briefly reach a post-2007 high of 5.04%, before falling back to 5.00% by the close. All that meant it was a rough day for equities too, with the S&P 500 (-0.45%) falling to a 6-week low. To be fair, markets have begun to stabilise a bit overnight, but the Fed are now set to take centre stage, with markets pricing in a 94% chance this morning that they deliver their first rate hike today since 2023.

At the Fed’s last decision in July, markets went into that pricing a roughly 30% chance that the Fed would hike. But even though the decision to hold was broadly expected and in line with the baseline market expectation, there was still a sharp steepening in the Treasury yield curve afterwards given the relative lack of detail from Chair Warsh. Since then, however, Warsh delivered a fairly hawkish message at Jackson Hole in late August, saying that “underlying trends” in inflation had not meaningfully improved, and that if underlying inflation wasn’t getting back to target, then they had “work to do”. So that raised expectations that the Fed would hike at this meeting, which was solidified by the upside surprise in the August jobs report, along with Friday’s core CPI print, which came in higher than expected at +0.3%.

Our US economists are also expecting that the Fed will hike today, as growth remains solid, the labour market has rebounded, and PCE inflation has demonstrated limited evidence of falling back to target. Moreover, forward-looking indicators suggest the inflation overshoot is likely to persist for some time. Nevertheless, with a hike mostly priced in by markets, the key question for them is how Chair Warsh and the latest dot plot frame the tightening cycle. Their view is that forward guidance is unlikely, but they think the median dot should show another rate increase this year, with several officials projecting more than that. For more details, see their full FOMC preview here.

Ahead of the Fed’s decision, there was no let-up in rising oil prices, as fresh supply fears continued to push prices higher. First, Reuters reported that shipping industry sources had said that oil loadings at the Yanbu export terminal in Saudi Arabia had been suspended, leading them to cancel September loadings to some European refiners. And separately, we also had some headlines from Libya that output at three oil fields had been suspended. So that added to fears about wider supply disruption, particularly with no sign of the Strait of Hormuz reopening soon either. In turn, that meant Brent crude (+2.90%) moved up to $108.75/bbl by the close, its highest level since May, while WTI crude (+4.38%) saw an even larger increase to $105.83/bbl. And in a sign that investors were pricing in longer disruption as well, the 6-month Brent future (+1.65%) moved up to its highest since May as well, at $92.06/bbl.

That inflation momentum helped to push up yields to fresh multi-year highs around the world. So in the US, the 10yr yield (+1.5bps) finally closed above 5% for the first time since 2007, at 5.00%. And in trading, it also managed to hit a post-2007 intraday high of 5.04% as well. Moreover, the 10yr real yield (+1.3bps) moved up to a post-2008 high of 2.62%, so this wasn’t just an inflation story. Meanwhile for other maturities, the 30yr yield (+2.2bps) also…