Europe Multi Industry China Trade Tracker and what it foretells for European Capital Goods

EQUITY RESEARCH | 27 July 2026 | 8:14AM BST

Europe Multi-Industry China Trade Tracker and what it foretells for European Capital Goods In our China Import/Export Tracker, we examine 43 specific capital goods product categories relevant to our coverage. We monitor for signs of competitive risk for our companies at a granular, product level. While Europe still leads in exports of capital goods within our tracked products, accounting for 43% of global volumes, its share has decreased from 54% in 2005 (Exhibit 5). Meanwhile, China is steadily increasing its export presence in the global marketplace, gaining 16pp of market share, from 7% in 2005 to 24% in 2025. While most of this share has been captured in Emerging Markets, this presents increased competition for our covered companies. Europe’s relative size in the global exports market, vs. China, is the highest in commercial vehicle engines, dairy machinery and rail brakes; however, China has made the fastest gains exactly in those areas over the last five years (Exhibit 3).

Inside, we analyze the latest trends product by product, both over the long run and over the last few months. We also look at trade defense investigations initiated in Europe. In this edition, we also include a competitive landscape in terms of patents filed, which shows China has been the top patent filer, overtaking Europe in 2025.

Daniela Costa Christian Hinderaker, CFA Meihan Yang Aditya Agarwal Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs India SPL Ope Otaniyi Hollie Cooper Ines Lefranc Susmita Saha Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs International Goldman Sachs India SPL

Aayush Kandpal Goldman Sachs India SPL

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Goldman Sachs Europe Multi-Industry

Looking broadly at China’s headline export data for June 2026 specifically, export growth accelerated sharply and was above consensus expectation +27% yoy (vs. +19.4% in May) on the back of AI-related products and automobiles. By region, China’s exports growth to the EU accelerated substantially +18.5% yoy (vs. +7.6% in May), albeit the trend was also matched by imports growth from the EU also rising +9.2% yoy (vs. -1.3% in May). China’s exports to the US increased 13.9% yoy (vs. 35.4% in May), while imports from the US increased 25.9% yoy (vs. 20.4% in May). See our economists’ note here. For our 43 product categories, we have seen better exports and imports performance out of China. In the latest granular data by category for June 2026 (all metrics are 3m rolling and exclude Russia for comparability), global export values continued to move higher, and the pace of growth has accelerated, with rising momentum at +15.4% yoy in aggregate for the categories we track (vs. +9.6% in May); similarly, import values growth accelerated, increasing +13.4% yoy (vs. +13.2% in May). By product, most categories displayed a growth trend in exports, with the top-5 yoy Chinese export growth categories being Tungsten (powders and tools; refer to the product section for more analysis on this) (>>+100%, Sandvik, Weir, FLSmidth), fibre cable (+58%, Prysmian), marine engines (+75%, Wartsila), heat pumps (+60%, Nibe) and LCV (+60%, Traton); see Exhibit 19. The pace of change in imports has been more balanced, with the largest yoy Chinese import declines in cranes (-51%, Konecranes), heat pumps (-37%,NIBE, Ariston, Carel), coffee machines (-36%, De’ Longhi), basins and toilets (-34%, Geberit) and air pumps (-26%, Atlas Copco); see Exhibit 20.

In terms of exports to regions for the products we track, the June data shows a meaningful yoy increase in…