Europe Weekly Kickstart 1H 2Q26 Earnings Tracker Early Beats Remain Concentrated

Portfolio Strategy Research 24 July 2026 | 1:05PM BST

1H/2Q26 Earnings Tracker: Early Beats Remain Concentrated

Roughly 20% of the companies that we expect to include in Beats have been driven by a few sectors. Technology has Peter Oppenheimer | our earnings tracker have reported 2Q results. This delivered one of the strongest earnings surprises so far, Goldman Sachs International represents c.30% of the STOXX 600 market cap. Reporting with EPS exceeding expectations by 7% on average, largely Sharon Bell activity will accelerate sharply next week, with the final week driven by semiconductor names. However, the sector’s | of July expected to be the busiest period of the earnings strength remains highly concentrated, with ASML Goldman Sachs International

season. accounting for most of the aggregate upside surprise, while Guillaume Jaisson | STMicroelectronics reported below expectations and Goldman Sachs International H1 2026 is on track to deliver the strongest EPS growth in provided weak Q3 guidance, falling -18% following results. Giovanni Ferrannini the past 3 years, for both the broad STOXX 600 index (12%) | Healthcare and Financial Services have also exceeded and the median stock (7%). This is driven primarily by Goldman Sachs International expectations, with average earnings surprises of c.8% and Commodities. Excluding Commodities, earnings growth falls Elena Porfidia 7%, respectively. | to 6%, still a reasonably strong pace (Exhibit 1). Goldman Sachs International Early reporters in the Commodities space have STOXX 600 companies are reporting ahead of Jacinta Feng benefited from rising energy prices. Only 20% of the | expectations on a market-cap-weighted basis (4.3%) and Energy sector has reported so far, beating earnings Goldman Sachs International on an equal-weighted basis (2.6%), roughly in line with the expectations by 12% on average (equal-weighted). historical average earnings surprise (Exhibit 2). Excluding TotalEnergies reported its strongest quarterly earnings in ASML (which constitutes around 5% of the STOXX 600), the nearly three years and rose 3% on the day. Repsol also market-cap-weighted earnings surprise falls to 2.7%. reported an earnings beat, driven by refining strength. The Indeed, the breadth of earnings surprises has been relatively recent resurfacing of tensions in the Middle East boosted narrow (Exhibit 3): only 26% of the early reporters have energy prices, with oil rising to around $100/bbl and TTF beaten EPS expectations by more than 5% (vs. a historical prices increasing by 50% over the last two weeks. All else average of c.40%), while around 60% have reported broadly equal, this could support continued earnings strength for in line. Energy names in 3Q26. Sector earnings are expected to

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Goldman Sachs Europe Weekly Kickstart

grow by around 70% in 2026 and have been revised up by 64% since the beginning of the conflict.

Capital Goods: AI-related demand is sustaining growth in European capital goods. Our sector analysts have highlighted datacenter-related activity as a key driver of demand, which has remained strong despite emerging macro risks. In particular, growth in AI-related CapEx (representing more than 40% of our CapEx Tracker) heavily influenced organic growth across capital goods. In 2Q26 so far, 100% of our sector analysts’ coverage has surprised to the upside on sales, with >90% beating on EBITA.

Strong price reactions for companies reporting away from expectations (Exhibit 4), with misses penalised more severely: average relative price moves are +2% for beats versus -3% for misses. This is historically elevated (even after considering that early-season price movements tend to be particularly sharp) and is consistent with results moving against a high initial bar.