Fed Chatterbox September Edition

Economics Research 13 September 2026 | 6:42PM EDT

Fed Chatterbox: September Edition

The Fed Chatterbox highlights notable comments on key topics from Fed officials since the Pierfrancesco Mei | last FOMC meeting. A few themes stand out: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Since the FOMC’s July meeting, many participants have said that their decisions about the appropriate stance of policy will depend on incoming information about inflation. Several participants echoed Governor Barr, who noted that “if trends in the data give me some confidence that inflation is moderating on a path to 2 percent, then I think we can take a bit more time to assess our policy stance,” but “if inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.” A few participants, however, have shared President Hammack’s view that “policy is not restrictive” and that “it is time to act” by raising the fed funds rate. n On the inflation outlook, some participants have shared Chairman Warsh’s concern that “while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” In particular, a few participants have agreed with President Schmid’s view that “inflation has been too high across a broad-based and growing cross-section of goods and services.” A few others, however, have agreed with Governor Waller who said that “recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” and with President Williams, who similarly noted that “we are neither seeing second-round effects” of tariffs nor “unusual broadening” of the impact of higher energy prices, though their comments came prior to this week’s warmer CPI print. n Almost all participants—commenting on the labor market after a somewhat weaker July jobs report but before a stronger August report—have characterized it, in Chairman Warsh’s words, as “quite stable” and “consistent with full employment.”

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Date Speaker Key Quote(s) Venue

Sep 4 Hammack Both the hard data and the Remarks anecdotes are telling me the same thing: policy is not restrictive. Inflation is too high—and the longer it stays above our objective, the harder it will be to bring it back down. I’ll keep paying attention to the data and listening to the anecdotes. Right now, what I’m hearing is that it is time to act.

Sep 3 Waller 1. The short version is that, while Remarks inflation remains meaningfully above the FOMC’s 2 percent goal, recent data suggest we are finally seeing some signs of disinflation. If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting. 2. So my decision on the appropriate stance of policy will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation. If there is continued progress toward our 2 percent goal, then I am willing to support holding the policy rate at its current level… But if inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike. I judge that policy is currently only slightly restricting aggregate demand, and it may not take much acceleration in inflation to nudge me into supporting tighter policy. If there is evidence that progress toward 2 percent inflation reversed in August, a small adjustment in our stance would help ensure that it resumes.

Sep 2 Williams 1. I think we have to wait and see… I Remarks would say that the data recently have been encouraging, but we can’t just look at a month or two, we have to look at the full picture. 2. I obviously supported our decision not to raise rates at the July FOMC meeting… I think rates were in a good place to balance the two sides of our mandate. We are collecting a lot of data now and we’ll have to reassess.

Sep 1 Barr At the September FOMC meeting, if Remarks trends in the data give me some confidence that inflation is moderating on a path to 2 percent, then I think we can take a bit more time to assess our policy stance. However, if inflation…