Ford Motor July 29

Rating Company Date 29 July 2026 Hold Ford Motor Forecast Change North America United States Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 28 Jul 2026 (USD) 14.96 F.N F US NYS F Price target 16.00 Consumer 52-week range 29.80 - 10.82 Autos & Auto Technology

Kudos to price/mix upside; execution gets harder from here Valuation & Risks

Edison Yu Ford delivered a resilient 2Q print yesterday, raising its full-year EBIT guidance by Research Analyst $1bn (to $10.5bn at midpoint) on the back of favorable pricing and mix. At present, we think there is a fair amount of investment and complex execution still to come, Winnie Dong specifically regarding the launch of the Universal EV (UEV) platform and the Research Analyst buildout of the Ford Energy ecosystem. We believe these transitions are already largely priced into the stock, thus execution will be key over the next few quarters as management navigates these capital deployments. Looking to 2027, we see a James Mulholland, CFA Research Associate sizable opportunity to expand EBIT amid what is a strong broader market environment. We tweak our price target up to $16 (up from $15); maintain Hold rating. Key changes TP 15.00 to 16.00 ↑ 6.7% 2Q26 earnings summary EPS (USD) 1.65 to 1.85 ↑ 12.1% Ford reported a strong EBIT beat in 2Q, reflecting strong pricing and mix dynamics. 180,444.8 to Within Automotive, Blue delivered EBIT of $1,135m, a 4.3% margin, compared with Revenue (USDm) ↑ 0.7% 181,734.3 our/consensus $709m/$788m, reflecting relatively equal contributions from Source: Deutsche Bank volume, price and FX. Market factors, lapping tariffs, and software & physical services were all benefits in the quarter, though commodities and supplier disruption costs were a headwind. Ford Pro, however, fell slightly short of our expectations with EBIT of $1,718m, which compares with our/consensus $1,839m/ $1,846m. Results in the quarter were weighed on by volume/mix and commodities, slightly offset by regulatory client expense improvement and software & physical services. Model e losses were less than anticipated with EBIT of -$919m, compared with our/consensus at -$998m/-$1,105m (margin -91.9% vs our/consensus - 75.3%/-94.1%). Overall, adjusted EBIT was $2,503m, surpassing our/consensus $2,020m/$2,152m and reflecting 17% growth YoY, despite lower revenue. Notably off-road performance trims accounted for nearly 25% of the sales mix. Free cash flow was $2,094m, bracketed by our/consensus $1,857m/$2,197m. See Figure 6 for a detailed comparison.

Outlook raise driven by pricing and mix Management’s updated guidance reflects improvement in the company’s outlook for pricing and mix, with free cash flow improvement coming from earlier IEEPA cash recovery and profit flow-through (at roughly 50-60% conversion). Below we summarize management’s latest outlook:

n US SAAR of 16.0-16.5m vehicles with flat industry pricing (unchanged)

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29 July 2026 Autos & Auto Technology Ford Motor

n Aluminum supplier YoY impact of $1.0bn (unchanged), inclusive of temporary aluminum costs of -$1.5bn (-$1.5 to -$2.0bn prior) and volume recovery of $2.5bn ($2.5-3.0bn prior) n Partial IEEPA cash recovery of ~$500m in 2026 (of the total $1.3bn recorded in 1Q). The remainder will be recognized in 2027 (prior was 100% in 2027). n Commodities and DRAM headwind of $2.0bn (unchanged) n Material and warranty cost improvement of $1bn tailwind (unchanged) n Energy and UEV platform investment of $1bn headwind (unchanged) n Net tariff tailwind of $1bn (unchanged)

Looking out into the back half of the year, the company anticipates strong recovery in Super Duty and F-series production, though there will be some commodity impact. The company anticipates a $900m impact in 2H, on top of the $500m in 1H. 2H will also experience…